Techniques for analysing industries and competitors. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985a. Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance.
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
Tools, techniques, and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Laboratory-directed research and development; Investment; Sandia 1. Introduction The Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories conducts world-class research on a variety of subjects that are relevant to Sandia's missions and potentially useful to other national needs.
With the Sandia-specific and additional DOE data, this set consisted of 5112 records. 3. 2. Similarity calculation LSA is a technique based on the vector space model that has found recent application in information retrieval.
Traditional LSA uses the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique to deconstruct a term document matrix {X} into the product of three other matrices
compare, and leverage objective technological strengths to attract new external customers. 4. 3. Landscape mapping of DOE LDRD A map of the DOE LDRD data set was created using the same technique described previously
Drilling down into a technology is a powerful analysis technique, and provides greater detail for the laboratory and IAS.
roadmapping comes quite close to system dynamic modelling techniques, yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Figure 2. Using roadmaps in strategy processes (Ahlqvist 2009. than for system simulation. However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
although one could consider augmenting the FIP approach by such techniques. 1 Two different situations can be contrasted.
and it has been used in Japan as a technique for large-scale questionnaires targeted at experts in science and technology since 1971.
2006) consider three theoretical frameworks to derive effective methods and techniques in a range of dialogue situations.
B Conflicts between stakeholders have been resolved with proven techniques such as the Mutual Gains approach applied by a facilitator.
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
‘‘Techniques for assessing anthropogenic systems hazardous to environment''.''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
expert panels, benchmarking, etc.).The Delphi method was the key instrument. The principal stages included: B preliminary desk research;
This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys interviews, workshops), and analytical research. All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.
and biosphere 4 Geophysical techniques for oil and gas prospecting in complex environments; assessment of productivity of oil fields;
techniques to monitor oil and gas fields, identifying possible ore-bearing, oil-and gas-saturated zones 95.7 2018 Improving positions on international markets (78.1 percent) Contributing to dealing with social problems (25 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining
various equipment for rescue operations and emergency situations management 66.7 1. 71 Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems 62.5 1. 86 Forecasting
natural and anthropogenic disasters and their consequences based on monitoring data and advanced understanding of their origins and development 57.1 1. 71 Techniques for prospecting natural resources,
To date, studies on CTI have used a full range of analytical techniques, including content analysis, patent analysis, bibliometrics,
integrative SIFT can provide an advantage to existing CTI practice in that its principal analytical technique of Delphi,
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
Rowe, G. and Wright, G. 1999),‘The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis'',International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, pp. 353-75.
Besides scientific methods, various other techniques are used also. The main objective of FTA projects is to assist decision-makers with relevant analyses,
and plan their R&d strategy accordingly 7. Qualitative techniques, in contrast, can establish casual relations (without which models can be misleading),
Simply, it would be a gross mistake trying to establish a hierarchy of particular FTA METHODS/techniques based on their‘absolute advantages'(that is,
miss some major factors that cannot be identified by these techniques, and deter participation. Further, putting an excessive emphasis on the combination of quantitative
Two papers from the same school Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 address the need for novel methods and techniques to support adaptive policy-making.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 qualitative) as an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role (p. 753.
and analysis on the consequences and outcomes of applying specific techniques in the course of FTA. 5 Scapolo
Such exercises push experts in quantitative and qualitative techniques closer to each other, therefore enhancing cross-disciplinary learning.
Visualisation techniques and strategic design: During the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA, the use of images and visualisation techniques was suggested as a tool,
both for better explaining (quantitative and qualitative) methodologies adopted and for results obtained. A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
It explores and visualises‘the architecture of problems 'and can offer a wider framework in which quantitative
This means that both quantitative and qualitative tools and techniques should be judged not so much against the accuracy of their prediction on the future
is their gradual integration into existing practices of FTA and their convergence with qualitative techniques.
Techniques and approaches related to building stakeholder trust can also be applied to bridge qualitative and quantitative communities.
i e. mechanisms to bridge existing techniques of both types. New research efforts are required to devise methodological and conceptual frameworks,
or so basic techniques, dating from that time at least, is trend analysis. This includes both historical time series analyses
Another important technology forecasting technique 6 is the use of analogies. Herein, one anticipates growth in an emerging technology based on the pattern of growth observed in a somewhat related technology.
How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques? Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
Serv. 11 (2009) 59 63.20 H. L. Yu, Analysis of the particleboard technology based on TRIZ and S-Curve technique evolution law, Forest.
an empirical analysis, Rand J. Econ. 25 (1994) 319 333.26 T. H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph d
Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J
technique, technology and (technological innovation. An evolutionary approach within the framework of danthropology of techniquet is a necessary step to grasp adequately these concepts.
a necessary anthropology of technique In 1904 Hugo De vries, the eminent Dutch botanist that rediscovered Mendel's laws
T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1144 Such a bridge could be offered by a better-developed danthropology of technique,
1 Technique precedes technology, not only in human history, but also under a pure evolutionary point of view. Technique (or routine,
what is often the same thing)) did need not a brain or mind to come in existence in the course of biological evolution:
very primitive life forms have developed skilled techniques of gathering food, of attracting partners for mating, of disguise to avoid predators,
and reproduce. 2 In the course of biological evolution the technique came to life as a form of searching for a bypass
when dealing with technique, do in a conscious way what nature ever did unconsciously. In other words, we can say that human technical skills are the continuation of this natural search for bypasses by intelligent means. 4 Another important conclusion is that the existence of learning capabilities
when technique was seen not more as skilled handwork, but has turned as the object of systematic human knowledge and a new dweltanschaungt (at that time purely mechanistic).
from the technique, or the dlehret as men perform something (technical) at their best. With this short collection of ideas I wish to suggest that a firmly conceptually based danthropology of techniquet is still lacking in the current attempts of model building and formal theorizing of an ETTC.
technique is the most suitable basic unity of analysis and must be viewed as the enduring search for bypasses (shortcuts) obeying the general physical principle of the least action;
and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques, and robust optimization. The proposed approach,
analysts often use techniques such as exploratory scenarios 9, Delphi surveys 10, and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11.
Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
which methods and techniques could be employed in each of the steps. That is, adaptive policy-making needs to move from being a high level concept captured in a flowchart,
Finally, in the exemplary paper on RDM 41, there is a need for significant computational power due to sampling techniques used,
whereas through the utilization of computationally more efficient methods such as PRIM, more efficient sampling techniques can be employed. 3. Illustration:
Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
The RAND Corporation developed a technique called Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) tailored to this.
Many well-established techniques, such as Monte carlo sampling, factorial methods, and optimization techniques, can be usefully
and successfully employed in the context of EMA 7, 13 15. In this paper, we argue that by using models differently,
EMA offers a suitable technique to explore the potential implications of these uncertainties and assists in developing a plan that can adapt over time to how uncertainties unfold.
Therefore, there is a need for data reduction techniques. One way of analyzing the results is to identify runs that share the same dynamic behavior over time.
A wide variety of methods and techniques are being explored 34. Application domains include chemical process monitoring and control,
This area of research might contain useful techniques for further reducing the results and supporting the interpretation.
Classification trees are employed a frequently data mining technique 46. They are used to predict class membership based on a set of attributes.
The case illustrated how through the use of nonlinear optimization techniques a performance bandwidth could be established across all the uncertainties.
and techniques available to FTA practitioners. 5. Conclusions The aim of this paper was to investigate the potential of EMA for FTA.
a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.
The three cases also illustrate the need for combining EMA with machine learning or data mining techniques
That is, the systematic exploration of a wide variety of uncertainties produces large datasets that need to be analyzed further using machine learning or data mining techniques in order to extract decision relevant information from it.
Scenario practice and related techniques Reflecting the uncertain threats of the cold war, the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Although most reviews of scenario techniques distinguish between quantitative and qualitative techniques, the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
Hence, our brief overview of scenario techniques is intended not to provide a comprehensive classification or typology.
Merely its role is to describe the variety of current techniques that are relevant for this paper.
Table 1 Modes of thinking about the future. Source: adapted from Jørgensen 41. Modes of thinking Type of futures in focus Characteristics The predictive mode Probable futures Working with indications of what will happen.
This technique is used often in national foresights to guide innovation and national research policies 58 60. All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states. Practices are very diverse and often combinations of techniques 61.
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
A technique underpinning these types of scenarios is described by Weiner & Brown 68 as the extremes that inform the middle.
When considered from the perspective of creating legitimacy for action we also suggest that the scenarios in this group could benefit fromcomplementary techniques connecting the long-term future images to the present via stepping stones.
Using roadmaps is an example of such a complementary technique for linking scenarios with internal innovation capabilities (i e. inward reflection.
Particular choices and uses of techniques will be influenced by the context in which applications are made. Contextual features will include, among other things, the morphology or physiology of the domain, the purpose and theoretical premises of the study,
An overview of our findings is presented in Table 2 that describes for each group of practice (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3) the most common images of the future, an example of a characteristic technique and the dominant mode of futures thinking.
Examples of supportive techniques are the use of an uncertainty matrix and the multi-axes method using factors of high uncertainty and high impact.
Policy perspective (representation) Scenario practice (most characteristic) Types of futures (main focus) Techniques (example) Modes of futures thinking Window of opportunity (sense of urgency) Using scenarios Shaped by surprise
and practice is shaped by the image (s) of the future and the techniques applied. Combinations of techniques are possible
and can be found in our case studies and in literature, see for instance 71,81. To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
and implications) cross-fertilizations between the techniques of the different groups can enhance the innovation potential.
'Hence, the benefits from combining techniques for each of the groups become also clear from a theoretical point of view
As acknowledged in the previous sections (see also Tables 2 and 3), cross-fertilization between scenario approaches and techniques, such as framing boundaries, roadmapping,
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures
Soc. 41 (2012) 107 125.50 L. Borjesön, M. Hojer, K.-H. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques:
a third generation of 3-D nanosystems and systems of nanosystems (characterized by various syntheses and assembling techniques),
E. Dönitz, M. G. Möhrle, Consistency matrices within scenario technique: an empirical investigation, in: H.-D. Haasis, H. Kopfer, J. Schönberger (Eds.
or from techniques rooted in other disciplines. A running theme in the world of FTA is need the to address evaluation and impact.
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,
It explains the development of a particular variation of a roadmapping technique, the so-called‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset by exploring its prospects
predicting and/or explaining future developments with the means of different methods and techniques, e g.,, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping,
and several scholars have proposed different classifications of these techniques. The different dimenssion used to classify these different FTA techniqque include:
the type of technique (qualitative versus (semi) quantitative), the type of approach (exploratory versus normative),
Not all techniques described in the classifications mentioone comply to the same extent with all six principlles For example,
Furthermore, by exploring new mixes of FTA TOOLS they contribute to the creation of FTA techniques that are more adaptive to clients'needs and to context characteristiics Last but not least, this special section also contribbute to the identification of key success factors in the application of these techniques.
and other scanning techniques), covering the area that is to be scanned. A focus on all signals that might have significant impact on the strategic missions
The use of the scenario technique turned out to be essenttial as was the mix of both open participatory and restricted process elements to tackle sensitive policy issues.
In this respect the use of techniques to identify weak signals would have improved the farsightedness of the theses
appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient factors to explain the success of foresight programs. The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career.
the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies
interdisciplinary research on quality of experience (Qoe) and quality of service (Qos) in mobile media environments, evaluation of user-and futureorieente innovation techniques in the ICT domain,
Secondly, the clusters were ranked to identify the most promising application (s)/ cluster (s). A factor analysis (using the principal component analysis technique) of the interest shown by the 312 respondents in the 80 mobile city application (s) showed that this interest can be summarized in 21 factors,
using Delphi technique and considering four dimensions of analysis: techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
and international cooperation) S&t monitoring using text mining techniques applied to relevant international databases Delphi, involving around 1,
techniques and tools is one of the characteristics of future studies, as has been highligghte by Porter et al.
These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.
Of the 33 methods and techniques identified by Popper, the FINEP SMP has employed the following:
tools and techniques according to the methodological approach utilized and to support the mobilization of all of the stakeholders involved and expertise,
and foresight, relying on a diversity of methods and techniques and, above all, having flexibility and resilience in its application,
the modern techniques of genetic modification were adopted to improve the genes of particular seeds, such as the seeds of subtropical fruits.
Since the 1980s the modern technique of genetic modification was applied to improve the genes of subtropical fruits (such as papayas) and non-edible organisms (such as ornamental fish.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006)‘ Scenario types and techniques:
European Science Foundation. van‘t Klooster, S. A. and van Asselt, M. B. A. 2006)‘ Practising the scenario-axes technique',Futures, 38:15 30.
30 and making use of foresight techniques (a backcasting experimeent a first vision building workshop
on human imagination and creativvity Within the SESTI project different text-mining techniques were used for this purpose as well as exercises which used participative web tools such as Wikipedia,
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