http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes Per Dannemand Andersen a & Mads Borup a a Department of Management Engineering, Technical University
Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstrovet 424, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark This paper addresses the issue of foresight and strategy processes of national research councils and research programmes.
socio-technical; public research organisatioons foresight; science and technology and innovation policy studies 1. Introduction The setting of priorities in science
and the methods for determining this come from the usual techniques for evaluating scientific merit:
and Foresight section at the Technical University of Denmark's Department for Management Engineering. His areas of work are systems of innovation and governance of research and innovation in the fields of eco-innovation and energy innovation.
Techniques for analyzing industries and competitors. Newyork: The Free Press. Prahalad, C. K, . and G. Hamel. 1990.
'4 But with the use of techniques like foresight, these processes have been opened up more widely.
to moderated working sessions using a range of techniques to stimulate the creativity and openness of participants (e g. brainstorming and small working groups).
IPTS Technical Report Series, EUR 20137 EN. Seville: IPTS. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 969 Smits, R,
Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38:15 30. Voß, J-P, . and R. Kemp. 2006.
The technical community has a deep distrust of metrics. This poses an additional challenge to be overcome in implementing empirically informed technology management.
and a short background technical report, are provided to the VP. This paper focuses on the idea that informative mining of S&t information resources can be done quickly and powerfully.
nor did its members have substantive knowledge about the full range of scientific and technical matters addressed in the panel reports.
growth rate, pattern of growth and (technical, cognitive or institutional) complementarities. In the fourth section the central proposition of the paper is presented:
and institutional context using the notion of socio-technical regimes (12,13, building inter alia on 14,15). In all these approaches to characterising innovation regimes the knowledge base plays a crucial role.‘‘
All these represent cognitive, technical and institutional complementarities which all refer to the need a researcher faces to develop collaborations in order to produce results.
2) Technical: shared platforms are not central for plant genomics. 3) Institutional: plant genomics development is based a science activity led by industrial companies.
Growth network dimension Growth pattern relative position of clusters within the network Complementarities-relations within the network Cognitive Technical Institutional Journals network Number of journals Citations
or experimental techniques/objects 47. Complementarity: Research in the domain of N&n is driven industry and science based.
The generation of socio-technical scenarios in a stakeholder dialogue may well create a more reliable ground for transferring research results into successful nano-innovations.
Examples are the EU FP6 Nanologue project14 where different products for different socio-technical scenarios were envisaged or the strategy articulation workshops in the framework of the Dutch Nanoned initiative (e g. 49 51.
Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science
and to gauge changes in the commercial, technical, and cultural environments on a monthly basis. James B. Smith originally brought the scanning process to SRI International in 1979 with the assistance of the futurist consulting group Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc,
The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,
Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers
A number of techniques exist, most of which involve some combination of systematic application of criteria with a voting
Some sophisticated techniques exist for decision making, for example the analytical hierarchy approach 11. A review of some of these methods concluded that most are used rarely in practical situations of R&d resource allocation 12.
Known as the market survey or technical dialogue, this stage takes place priori to the procurement process.
The use of foresight approaches allows procurers to open up their thinking to technical or other solutions
The model and modelling techniques in use guided the data gathering of the system analysis part. Autonomous There was still a significant degree of freedom to adapt to the perceived needs during the process and the development of roadmaps and scenarios.
The process assisted the new Public security Technical Programme (PSTP) of the Canadian office of the National science Advisor (ONSA.
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2001
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
It is startling how few systematic comparisons have been made about the consequences of employing specific techniques in the course of FTA. 3 It is striking that much of the work collected in Linstone
Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;
and less common techniques such as gaming,(Roughly Horton's subtask (iv).)Analysis and Selection: comparison of alternative futures that have been posited,
The second dimension reflects how far the method involves formal analytic techniques such as statistical trend
as opposed to techniques that are designed to foster creative thinking and explore possibilities that are hard to capture in the more formal techniques.
Some combination of methods that span these dimensions is recommended as helping maximise the scope for FTA to draw on expert knowledge,
which thus called for careful design of the process and the tools and techniques it involved.
The complexity of FTA PROCESSES means that they can involve application of similar techniques for different purposes, at different points in the foresight knowledge cycle.
We may expect to see various types of KM activity taking place during the application of specific techniques.
and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.
The traditional techniques of face-to-face dialogue are not the only way in which we can engage in dialogue, debate, mutual learning,
It still calls for skill and technique good facilitation. And conventional meetings and workshops can benefit from technical support,
It can require considerable technical expertise (and time) to examine the underpinning assumptions of models (not to mention intellectual familiarity with the conceptual underpinnings of social and economic models).
not only arise in the highly formal techniques of modelling. The influences of specific procedures (and the‘‘technical''choices made in implementing them) on the outcomes of creativity sessions
and other group work may not be apparent, even to participants. Indeed, there is only limited empirical evidence,
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1975 (available at: http://www. is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).35 C. W. Choo, The Knowing Organization:
sustainable development can be seen as a proposal with an ethical modernity in its horizon and not only a technical one;
which explicitly deals with complex socio-technical systems and science society relationships. FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
Energy 13 Energy availability increases plentiful oil and other alternatives Rapid advances in concentrated solar energy Technical breakthrough in electric energy storage Sudden stop
appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient to result in foresight program success. To be regarded as successful,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
or techniques that originated in other disciplines. Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
FTA techniques need to embrace different perspectives including those considered impossible now and to provide a holistic view.
therefore, explores selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for FTA techniques, and later derives implications for the application of foresight in policy-making.
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
If this is achieved, the chances are high that foresight will elicit less technical skepticism in the urban planning realm.
modeling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
While the introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law is deemed extremely important and useful the paper also draws attention to the problems
A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
So, transport is a socio-technical system that is influenced by, and interwoven with, many factors inside and beyond its boundaries.
or an extension to pure CBA in cases where important effects cannot be monetised MCA allows decision makers to include a full range of social, environmental, technical, economic,
The latter can be highly relevant in complex socio-technical fields such as the transport sector. Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS supports a better understanding of the potentials of different methods.
Several new and practical implications for foresight techniques and their application are derived. Promoting variation is examined as one way to make policies more resilient in a complex system.
Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence and to provide capabilities such as reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
the derivation of practical implications for foresight techniques is original. Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
foresight techniques (see http://hsctoolkit. tribalhosting. net/The-tools. html for a summary of techniques,
applications and case studies) have developed out of need (see www. andyhinesight. com/category/foresight-2/(accessed August 2011) re practitioner usage);
or rationale, for either foresight or its techniques, Gheorghiou et al. 2008) and Miller (2011. In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
More recently the development of techniques for coping with disruptive events, often referred to as wild cards,
has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.
2004). ) As complexity theory itself has developed, Mitchell (2009), so has limited some work in the foresight field, Ringland (2010) and Miller and Poli (2010),
but there has been little specific consideration of how foresight techniques need to PAGE 294 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 294-303, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better, be applied better,
This paper will explore some selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for foresight techniques,
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to embrace emergence and to focus on the idea of interactions rather than constituent parts.
Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to develop a vision of a system's emergent properties the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts. 2. All systems have component agents (taxies,
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to accommodate changes in the basic rules.
Foresight techniques need to enable a vision of changes in the essential profile of a system. 3. The interactions between the component parts of a complex system
The implication is that foresight techniques need to accommodate phase change situations, accepting that they will happen,
Foresight techniques need to enable visions of phase-changed worlds. Foresight techniques must also accept the likely absence of any early warning signals. 4. Extreme sensitivity to initial conditions.
The starting slate is never clean extremely tiny errors in understanding where the system starts from can send any‘‘forecast''off in totally the wrong direction.
The implication is that foresight techniques need to recognise that a system has a critical history
Foresight techniques need to recognise that everything is part of a system, that there is no‘‘new''starting point,
The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to provide both optimisation and exploration processes to help identify a range of potential future situations and options.
Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to see the landscape from different perspectives and to generate both optimum and (currently) non-optimum alternative potential strategies and options.
In summary the implications of complexity theory for foresight techniques are that they must: B Enable a vision of a system's emergent properties.
''Some foresight techniques do use Reframing, for example in causal layered analysis, Inayatullah (1990), employs reframing at the deep myth/metaphor level. 4. Results policy making implications We all have our favourite story of a failed
‘‘embracing emergence''can be seen as very different to many FTA techniques. Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results
Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis, and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome,
design, and delivery to explore one example of a complexity-based technique to deal with disruptive events in policy-making Promoting variation.
Promoting variation can provide a response to several of the requirements of foresight techniques identified above in Section 2. For example it can contribute to generating a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration.
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
and similar techniques can be used 5. See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent 5. Observe which policies work well
and strengthen those policies VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 301 Foresight methodology Foresight techniques need to be developed to embrace emergence to harness the self-organised behaviour that results from interactions between the parts of a complex system rather than
Foresight techniques must provide policy makers with the ability to generate a range of future options
Policy making needs foresight techniques to enable a vision of the system's emergent properties and also of phase change situations (without early warning signals) and of the resulting changed world.
Policy making must use techniques such as Reframing to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones not possible now,
Policy making needs Foresight techniques to enable the generation of a range of future options and alternative potential strategies through both optimisation and exploration, including some that sound negative, ludicrous,
Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,
they are a meta-technique not just a single method. Scenario is one of the most basic,
e g. on how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences to a more detailed degree.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques.
Techniques and Applications, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Linstone, H. A. and Turoff, M. 2011),‘Delphi:
and reshaped by research results, findings in other technical fields, or external forces. In general, expectations mould variation processes
i) locally, within a firm or research group,(ii) more general, within a technical scientific field, and (iii) more global and diffuse, in society at large (see Fig. 3). The vertical dimension lists the three levels of aggregation.
In the hybrid solution the lower nanotube is replaced by a semiconducting structure created by common lithography techniques. 12 Then a layer of nanotubes is deposited
The same technique can be used to produce vacuum-tube lamps in different colours that are twice as bright as conventional lightbulbs,
Q These developments call for new techniques to continue the ongoing miniaturisation in the computer chip industry.
Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
But, in the same period also the agenda changed from working on detailed technical problems (aiming at a prototype) towards scaling
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Nantero tries to mature the technique (proof of concept) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
of a CTA study (at least in some approaches) is the formulation of bsocio-technical scenariosq 35,
The proposed method will be useful to locate the various socio-technical scenarios and to view them in light of the dynamics at the separate levels.
A Technical, Political and Institutional Map of Emerging technologies, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, London, 2003, July 14 Royal Society, Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and nanotechnologies:
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
In order to reconcile foresight techniques with urban planners, new contributions are needed to reinforce qualitative instruments with quality,
Scenario design is a foresight technique that has been used widely and documented (Godet, 1993; van der Heijden, 1996;
Therefore, foresight methods represent an emerging approach that works with few technical constraints and shows an increased adaptability to environmental changes.
the chances are that foresight will elicit less technical scepticism in the urban planning realm. References Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos (2009),‘Estudio de prospectiva territorial para la Ciudad de Burgos, unpublished study'',Asociacio
modelling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
While the introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to law is deemed extremely important and useful, the paper also draws attention to the problems
and risk, neglecting as a consequence the use of forecasting techniques, foresight methods and technology assessment procedures.
case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
At a more general level, the increasing availability of information in electronic form and the computing techniques and processes for exploiting such data constitute the most recent methodological developments in the field of FTA.
Through the use of modelling techniques and simulation platforms like the one described above, the anticipation of the future is increasingly being carried out through the advanced tools that help process, search,
moreover, how the techniques used to envision the future have grown in complexity and sophistication. 3. 3. 2‘‘Future-verification''assessments.
In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,
Through the use of scenario planning techniques, the future leaves the realm of the unknown and the impossible, transiting to the domain of the Possible future,
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above, the impact promises to be even greater.
The combination between these tools (scenario planning, modelling techniques and simulation platforms), as we saw in the Futurict case study,
and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
and simulation techniques aimed at uncovering future societal, economic and environmental trends. Through the use of modelling instruments, legislators would
Modelling techniques would allow legislators and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.
lawmaking processes would greatly benefit from the use of modelling techniques and other FTA instruments based on ICT procedures.
Based on data mining techniques, intelligence-based tactics and information communication strategies, predictive policing demonstrates that Law,
Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law, as this paper attempted to demonstrate,
studying how for example modelling techniques can assist Law without threatening its independence as a fundamental human (and not machine driven) activity. 4. 2. 4 Distinction and legitimacy.
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
the paper demonstrates that Law will need to focus on proactive, future-oriented analysis and techniques. Furthermore, in offering a series of specific cases
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
Since technology assessment has to integrate the socioeconomic context of a technical product in order to be comprehensive, in the case of nanotechnology a preparing step is necessary
what constitutes a roadmap and the roadmapping techniques employed 6. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
It has become a widely used technique during the past two decades from the perspective of both individual companies and entire industries.
we consider droadmapt as an umbrella term for a group of techniques that support the structurization of complex interdependent processes
or are constrained by technical (or occasionally socioeconomic) factors. Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
and use foresight practices and techniques for handling environmental uncertainty. He expands the understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty,
For example, in the multifocal model of Tuomi (2002), new technical functionalities and propensities are thrown in effect from the‘upstream'to a‘downstream'field of interacting social practices,
however, impossible to categorise a particular innovation based on the characteristics of a technical artefact before it is used.
Then the users invent new unintended ways to use the underlying technical capability, creating a world where‘messagging becomes a part of emerging social practices.
technical progress can be defined as improvements in‘texting',advanced messaging services, and phone interfaces that are optimised for text messages.
The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multilevel analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860 1930.
which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
forecasting and technology assessment research techniques of and for their respective communities. Futures studies are omitted. Derrida's comment,
'The direct reference to‘research techniques'accentuates the impression that FTA is approached through an enforced search for techniques to fit perceptions of the work in hand.
However, Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome.
all have a long history and an equally long and growing catalogue of techniques to use:
and techniques listed and described elsewhere, but to look into the darker corners of the FTA world.
the individual probability distributions can be joined (there are technical difficulties) using the procedure set out by Lipinski and Loveridge (1982).
a priori, about the goals and the socio-technical structure of the situation logical positivist/empiricist assumes that a situation can be isolated from the context in
technical impressions of the kind of information described earlier relating to the Japanese earthquake. Verbal equivalents to different probability levels (Alpert and Raiffa 1982) were used during this part of the elicitation to seed the interviewee's thinking processes.
Business studies have developed a set of techniques to assess the future for strategic decisionmakkin (Kappel 2001;
A popular technique is technology roadmapping, which has been used since the 1980s by Motorola and later by many other firms (Willyard and Mcclees 1997), like Philips (Groenveld 1997) and Lockheed martin (Houston and Turner 2001).
In terms of content, expectations may concern technical, commercial or societal aspects, and probably in a mix of these.
it locates products and techniques on the hype cycle (from‘inflated expectations, 'via‘disillusionment'to‘productivity')in order to decide
Hambrick 1982) and to investigate their likely evolution and impact on the organisation (foresight techniques:
and information technology have been regularly applying foresight techniques (Daheim and Uerz 2008; Reger 2001; Rollwagen, Hofmann, and*Email:
However, scholars omitted to investigate thoroughly what kind of foresight techniques and practices should a firm adopt
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
and implementation of appropriate techniques for anticipating the likely evolution of drivers of change (state uncertainty), their consequences on the organisation (effect uncertainty),
Roadmaps, 3 scenarios, 4 and strategic options (Dixit and Pindyck 1994) are by far the most popular foresight techniques (Becker 2002;
In this vein, scholars focused on methodological issues regarding how to implement a large number of foresight practices and techniques.
or technique is more appropriate and effective than others. Extant research streams of environmental uncertainty and strategic foresight are aligned not seamlessly.
and appropriateness of different foresight techniques and practices for coping with such conditions of uncertainty. In this way, we try to enhance the use of foresight by practitioners
and technical papers supplemented publicly available data. Third, we interviewed a sample of senior and mid-level managers
The foresight process then investigated the technical and economic feasibility of the concept, which the top management decided to endorse by establishing a new brand and a subsidiary start-up.
In this context, traditional techniques such as‘top-down'scenarios (e g. deductive scenarios starting with two key dimensions:
First, these techniques allowed managers to think about the alternative evolutions of drivers of change (state uncertainty) in an organic and systematic way.
In the chemical industry, techniques like scenarios were valuable because they helped managers focus on emerging forces of change.
In the face of boundary uncertainty, it is simply not sensible to use techniques such as scenarios or roadmaps.
A senior manager of Philips emphasised In our business foresight must address an essential prerequisite before using traditional techniques like scenarios:
which is in turn a condition sine qua non for starting to profitably use traditional foresight techniques. Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
Management tools and techniques: A survey. California Management Review 4, no. 2: 139 60. Rollwagen, I.,J. Hofmann,
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