Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
Techniques for analysing industries and competitors. Newyork: Free Press. Porter, M. E. 1985a. Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance.
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
Tools, techniques, and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.
D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Laboratory-directed research and development; Investment; Sandia 1. Introduction The Laboratory-directed research and development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories conducts world-class research on a variety of subjects that are relevant to Sandia's missions and potentially useful to other national needs.
With the Sandia-specific and additional DOE data, this set consisted of 5112 records. 3. 2. Similarity calculation LSA is a technique based on the vector space model that has found recent application in information retrieval.
Traditional LSA uses the singular value decomposition (SVD) technique to deconstruct a term document matrix {X} into the product of three other matrices
This stopword list was designed to allow the LSA to focus on technical content, and thus removed common words, many verbs, adjectives, adverbs,
compare, and leverage objective technological strengths to attract new external customers. 4. 3. Landscape mapping of DOE LDRD A map of the DOE LDRD data set was created using the same technique described previously
For example, laboratory B has an area of common technical focus with laboratory A through lithography, laboratory C through fuel cells and biological systems,
Drilling down into a technology is a powerful analysis technique, and provides greater detail for the laboratory and IAS.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
Kevin W. Boyack is a Principal Member of Technical Staff (PMTS) in the Computation, Computers, Information,
'In addition, Geels (2004,900) uses the term‘socio-technical system'to describe the systemic interaction that encompasses production, diffusion,
roadmapping comes quite close to system dynamic modelling techniques, yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.
Figure 2. Using roadmaps in strategy processes (Ahlqvist 2009. than for system simulation. However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Covers a certain domain of technical knowledge, e g. different technologies, gadgets,
and markets are created by socio-technical relationships. In the context of an RTO with an emphasis on technology development, this separation is, in our view,
and at the other end there is technology as socio-technical constellation combining the technological object,
In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
This space takes a holistic view of the organisation and approaches it simultaneeousl as a socio-technical complex and as a strategic entirety.
and to produce a set of socio-technical ICT application visions. The fourth phase, the roadmapping workshop, created roadmaps on selected socio-technical visions.
In the final research phase, the action workshop, a set of actions to be taken by the key players in the Nordic countries was depicted.
for example, in the form of application visions and exploratory socio-technical roadmaps. The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.
plausible, disruptive, alternative, unlikely Assessing the explorative application visions in the context of four scenarios Creation of scenario-based visionary socio-technical roadmaps on several application visions
From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory.
These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects. That is because they were driven initially by cold war considerations that concentrated on functional gains more than on cost
Wenk and Kuehn (1977) advance TDS as a form of socio-technical system conceptual modelling to help identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation.
By‘innovation',we mean a novel technical contribution effectively translated into a successful product or process (i e. commercialisation.
although one could consider augmenting the FIP approach by such techniques. 1 Two different situations can be contrasted.
In one, technical experts who know the NEST intimately reach out to understand and characterise its innovation processes.
Accordingly, we need technical guidance. The degree of such needs varies with the complexity of the NEST.
First, we generated direct DSSC technical terms. This showed Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 848 Y. Guo et al. high precision (minimal noise.
Second, we enriched these search terms according to different expressions of DSSCS and closely related technical structures to increase recall.
which is necessary to identify technical experts. We can also locate research concentrations geographically by overlaying indications on anything from a world map to a regional one (not shown.
and among organisations. 4. 4. Determine potential applications (Step E) We introduced a new technique called‘cross-charting'to explore the links from technological attributes (e g. particular nanomaterials or nanostructures and particular technical advances) to functional
whether most technical gains would point to highly specific functions and applications or would be generally advantageous instead.
were centred our interests on a given technical aspect (e g. pursuit of organic-metallic dyes), we could make a different cross-chart that accentuates relationships with their special capabilities.
In this paper and in companion analyses of nanobiosensors, we found value in subdividing the technical elements (e g. distinguishing among various nanostructured materials;
to expand selection criteria beyond technical functionality to consider cost, infrastructures, and compatibility. This leads us to the second type of technology assessment impact assessment.
Sorting technical terms is challenging but benefits from expert inputs. Such details can enrich cross-charting procedures to elucidate which key players (countries
We are investigating DSSC technical component developments through patent analyses that combine text mining, semantic/syntactic analyses,
and it has been used in Japan as a technique for large-scale questionnaires targeted at experts in science and technology since 1971.
2006) consider three theoretical frameworks to derive effective methods and techniques in a range of dialogue situations.
B Conflicts between stakeholders have been resolved with proven techniques such as the Mutual Gains approach applied by a facilitator.
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
‘‘Techniques for assessing anthropogenic systems hazardous to environment''.''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
expert panels, benchmarking, etc.).The Delphi method was the key instrument. The principal stages included: B preliminary desk research;
This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys interviews, workshops), and analytical research. All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.
and biosphere 4 Geophysical techniques for oil and gas prospecting in complex environments; assessment of productivity of oil fields;
techniques to monitor oil and gas fields, identifying possible ore-bearing, oil-and gas-saturated zones 95.7 2018 Improving positions on international markets (78.1 percent) Contributing to dealing with social problems (25 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining
various equipment for rescue operations and emergency situations management 66.7 1. 71 Remote monitoring techniques based on space satellite systems 62.5 1. 86 Forecasting
natural and anthropogenic disasters and their consequences based on monitoring data and advanced understanding of their origins and development 57.1 1. 71 Techniques for prospecting natural resources,
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
To date, studies on CTI have used a full range of analytical techniques, including content analysis, patent analysis, bibliometrics,
integrative SIFT can provide an advantage to existing CTI practice in that its principal analytical technique of Delphi,
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
because they include technical and application/commercial information. Patents are oriented towards the legal protection of technologies
For example, The Inspec Database, produced by the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), contains records from the world's technical
Gavigan, J. P. and Cahill, E. 1997),‘Overview of recent European and non-European national technology foresight studies'',Technical Report No.
Rowe, G. and Wright, G. 1999),‘The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis'',International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, pp. 353-75.
Before making these design‘technical'decisions, four issues seem to be particularly relevant when considering what FTA APPROACHES
Besides scientific methods, various other techniques are used also. The main objective of FTA projects is to assist decision-makers with relevant analyses,
and plan their R&d strategy accordingly 7. Qualitative techniques, in contrast, can establish casual relations (without which models can be misleading),
Simply, it would be a gross mistake trying to establish a hierarchy of particular FTA METHODS/techniques based on their‘absolute advantages'(that is,
miss some major factors that cannot be identified by these techniques, and deter participation. Further, putting an excessive emphasis on the combination of quantitative
Two papers from the same school Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 address the need for novel methods and techniques to support adaptive policy-making.
in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
The underlying claim is that innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 qualitative) as an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role (p. 753.
and analysis on the consequences and outcomes of applying specific techniques in the course of FTA. 5 Scapolo
of which were compared to the findings of a quantitative calculation of performance indicators. 3. 2. Use of technical and methodological interfaces that facilitate interaction A second type of exercise uses intermediaries as interfaces between the two approaches.
Such exercises push experts in quantitative and qualitative techniques closer to each other, therefore enhancing cross-disciplinary learning.
Visualisation techniques and strategic design: During the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA, the use of images and visualisation techniques was suggested as a tool,
both for better explaining (quantitative and qualitative) methodologies adopted and for results obtained. A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
It explores and visualises‘the architecture of problems 'and can offer a wider framework in which quantitative
In this case results of qualitative and quantitative techniques feed into each other at several stages of the process
In the context of qualitative and quantitative techniques especially the marrying of quantitative modelling and foresight seems to be unexplored rather.
This means that both quantitative and qualitative tools and techniques should be judged not so much against the accuracy of their prediction on the future
is their gradual integration into existing practices of FTA and their convergence with qualitative techniques.
Techniques and approaches related to building stakeholder trust can also be applied to bridge qualitative and quantitative communities.
i e. mechanisms to bridge existing techniques of both types. New research efforts are required to devise methodological and conceptual frameworks,
JRC Technical Report, EUR 21473 EN, European commission, 2004, Available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/Proceedings%20short%20version. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.2 P. Bazeley, Issues in mixing qualitative and quantitative approaches
or so basic techniques, dating from that time at least, is trend analysis. This includes both historical time series analyses
Another important technology forecasting technique 6 is the use of analogies. Herein, one anticipates growth in an emerging technology based on the pattern of growth observed in a somewhat related technology.
When a complex technical system incorporates a number of emerging technologies, use of TRLS has proven helpful in designing a viable new system.
Companies with strong capital strength and technical capabilities should participate in this stage and develop differentiated products to capture the market 35.
How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques? Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
Serv. 11 (2009) 59 63.20 H. L. Yu, Analysis of the particleboard technology based on TRIZ and S-Curve technique evolution law, Forest.
an empirical analysis, Rand J. Econ. 25 (1994) 319 333.26 T. H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph d
Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J
technique, technology and (technological innovation. An evolutionary approach within the framework of danthropology of techniquet is a necessary step to grasp adequately these concepts.
a necessary anthropology of technique In 1904 Hugo De vries, the eminent Dutch botanist that rediscovered Mendel's laws
dgenotypest by any sequence of building blocks, ddifferential reproductive successt by differential adoption in a market and dphenotypet by technical expression. $ My final argument favoring an evolutionary definition of innovation regards the aspect mentioned above of how strongly evolutionary
and can be applied easily in the domain of cultural traits or technical artifacts. But, as commented on above,
Artifacts themselves, the technical knowledge to make them or some combination of these? Or the interface of artifacts and ideas in technological practices?
T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1144 Such a bridge could be offered by a better-developed danthropology of technique,
which it shares many common points) considered that humans through their technical handle continued nature work,
1 Technique precedes technology, not only in human history, but also under a pure evolutionary point of view. Technique (or routine,
what is often the same thing)) did need not a brain or mind to come in existence in the course of biological evolution:
very primitive life forms have developed skilled techniques of gathering food, of attracting partners for mating, of disguise to avoid predators,
and reproduce. 2 In the course of biological evolution the technique came to life as a form of searching for a bypass
when dealing with technique, do in a conscious way what nature ever did unconsciously. In other words, we can say that human technical skills are the continuation of this natural search for bypasses by intelligent means. 4 Another important conclusion is that the existence of learning capabilities
and the further development of brain and mind came into life because nature owns the basic structure (then a fundamental law) of over shortcuts to reach easily the goals immediately ahead. 5 Technology is a recent human achievement that flourished conceptually in the 18th century,
when technique was seen not more as skilled handwork, but has turned as the object of systematic human knowledge and a new dweltanschaungt (at that time purely mechanistic).
from the technique, or the dlehret as men perform something (technical) at their best. With this short collection of ideas I wish to suggest that a firmly conceptually based danthropology of techniquet is still lacking in the current attempts of model building and formal theorizing of an ETTC.
At this point it is worth to point out that I agree with Joel Mokyr 19 that the unity of analysis that makes sense for the study of technological evolution is the dtechnique.
technique is the most suitable basic unity of analysis and must be viewed as the enduring search for bypasses (shortcuts) obeying the general physical principle of the least action;
and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques, and robust optimization. The proposed approach,
analysts often use techniques such as exploratory scenarios 9, Delphi surveys 10, and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11.
Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
which methods and techniques could be employed in each of the steps. That is, adaptive policy-making needs to move from being a high level concept captured in a flowchart,
Finally, in the exemplary paper on RDM 41, there is a need for significant computational power due to sampling techniques used,
whereas through the utilization of computationally more efficient methods such as PRIM, more efficient sampling techniques can be employed. 3. Illustration:
the paper offers a new technique for FTA practitioners in their work of supporting long-term planning. Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process.
the actor-options framework for modelling socio-technical systems, in: Policy analysis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.6 P. Eykhoff, System Identification:
Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
Technical Reports, RAND, Santa monica, California, 2009.14 D. H. Meadows, J. Richardson, G. Bruckmann, Groping in the dark:
using different modeling approaches, in three different technical domains. In the first case, EMA is combined with System Dynamics (SD) to study plausible dynamics for mineral and metal scarcity.
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
The RAND Corporation developed a technique called Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) tailored to this.
Many well-established techniques, such as Monte carlo sampling, factorial methods, and optimization techniques, can be usefully
and successfully employed in the context of EMA 7, 13 15. In this paper, we argue that by using models differently,
new technical solutions are emerging, and evaluation criteria are contested (e g. noise and emissions versus economic benefits) 16.
EMA offers a suitable technique to explore the potential implications of these uncertainties and assists in developing a plan that can adapt over time to how uncertainties unfold.
Therefore, there is a need for data reduction techniques. One way of analyzing the results is to identify runs that share the same dynamic behavior over time.
A wide variety of methods and techniques are being explored 34. Application domains include chemical process monitoring and control,
This area of research might contain useful techniques for further reducing the results and supporting the interpretation.
Classification trees are employed a frequently data mining technique 46. They are used to predict class membership based on a set of attributes.
The case illustrated how through the use of nonlinear optimization techniques a performance bandwidth could be established across all the uncertainties.
and techniques available to FTA practitioners. 5. Conclusions The aim of this paper was to investigate the potential of EMA for FTA.
a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.
The three cases also illustrate the need for combining EMA with machine learning or data mining techniques
That is, the systematic exploration of a wide variety of uncertainties produces large datasets that need to be analyzed further using machine learning or data mining techniques in order to extract decision relevant information from it.
, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark c Faculty of business and Law, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK a r t i c l e i n f o
Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas
This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Due to the socially dynamic characteristic of innovation 37, new socio-technical (sub systems will emerge over time 22.
and Health technical committee of the European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical research (Cost.
Scenario practice and related techniques Reflecting the uncertain threats of the cold war, the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Although most reviews of scenario techniques distinguish between quantitative and qualitative techniques, the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
Hence, our brief overview of scenario techniques is intended not to provide a comprehensive classification or typology.
Merely its role is to describe the variety of current techniques that are relevant for this paper.
Table 1 Modes of thinking about the future. Source: adapted from Jørgensen 41. Modes of thinking Type of futures in focus Characteristics The predictive mode Probable futures Working with indications of what will happen.
This technique is used often in national foresights to guide innovation and national research policies 58 60. All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
while most of the other techniques described produce narratives or images of alternative future states. Practices are very diverse and often combinations of techniques 61.
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
A technique underpinning these types of scenarios is described by Weiner & Brown 68 as the extremes that inform the middle.
When considered from the perspective of creating legitimacy for action we also suggest that the scenarios in this group could benefit fromcomplementary techniques connecting the long-term future images to the present via stepping stones.
Using roadmaps is an example of such a complementary technique for linking scenarios with internal innovation capabilities (i e. inward reflection.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 5. Discussion Due to the social dynamic characteristic of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging 24.
Particular choices and uses of techniques will be influenced by the context in which applications are made. Contextual features will include, among other things, the morphology or physiology of the domain, the purpose and theoretical premises of the study,
An overview of our findings is presented in Table 2 that describes for each group of practice (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3) the most common images of the future, an example of a characteristic technique and the dominant mode of futures thinking.
Examples of supportive techniques are the use of an uncertainty matrix and the multi-axes method using factors of high uncertainty and high impact.
Policy perspective (representation) Scenario practice (most characteristic) Types of futures (main focus) Techniques (example) Modes of futures thinking Window of opportunity (sense of urgency) Using scenarios Shaped by surprise
and practice is shaped by the image (s) of the future and the techniques applied. Combinations of techniques are possible
and can be found in our case studies and in literature, see for instance 71,81. To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
and implications) cross-fertilizations between the techniques of the different groups can enhance the innovation potential.
'Hence, the benefits from combining techniques for each of the groups become also clear from a theoretical point of view
As acknowledged in the previous sections (see also Tables 2 and 3), cross-fertilization between scenario approaches and techniques, such as framing boundaries, roadmapping,
surprise and external change Technocratic Expertise and discovery Demonstrate technical feasibility and optimize technological development Allows minimizing inconsistencies
i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, K. Van der Heijden, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures
Soc. 41 (2012) 107 125.50 L. Borjesön, M. Hojer, K.-H. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques:
Currently Kristian is Head of Section in the Department of Management Engineering (DTU Man) at the Technical University of Denmark.
the field, its definition and its governance The Technical Committee 229 on Nanotechnologies of the International Standardization Organization (ISO) issued a definition of nanotechnology in 2010
a third generation of 3-D nanosystems and systems of nanosystems (characterized by various syntheses and assembling techniques),
E. Dönitz, M. G. Möhrle, Consistency matrices within scenario technique: an empirical investigation, in: H.-D. Haasis, H. Kopfer, J. Schönberger (Eds.
She holds a Phd in sociology of technology from Darmstadt Technical University and a diploma in mechanical engineering.
or from techniques rooted in other disciplines. A running theme in the world of FTA is need the to address evaluation and impact.
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
EEA Technical Report/No 3/2009,2009. 7 M. B. A. van Asselt, A. Faas, F. van der Molen, S. A. Veenman, Uit zicht.
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011