and analyse weak signals to‘foresee'changes in the future Produce future oriented material for the system to use AP:
Megatrends and weak signals are also the crucial targets of the examination: they reveal important information
Wild cards and weak signals can be compared to early warnings or near miss situations in industrial safety.
and weak signals reveal the potential future or give tips for the future. 4. 2. Contingent and holistic processes Foresight activities and methodologies may have benefits that will support the risk analysis methods and activities in the development towards a more holistic approach.
) Report no. 94, NISTEP, Tôkyô, 2005.7 O. Kuusi, E. Hiltunen, H. Linturi, Heikot tulevaisuussignaalit Delfoi tutkimus (Weak signals a Delphi study), Futura, vol. 2
Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review 17, no. 2: 21 33.
drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. The survey responses provide a rich and diverse array of issues that could be dissected further
The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals Ozcan Saritas a,,*Jack E. Smith b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK b Federal Foresight & Innovation strategy, Defence
discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference.
discontinuities, and weak signals. The review of the literature indicated that these concepts are considered not and compared in one single source.
and weak signals can be considered as the critical elements and essential outputs of Horizon scanning. 2 The UK and The netherlands have conducted their national horizon scans.
or may not be announced by weak signals, which are fragmented incomplete and data from which relevant Foresight information might be inferred.
Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not. There have also been attempts to link wild cards/shocks to trends (see the box below.
because they can alter so many other domains. 2. 5. Weak signals The final key term is‘‘weak signals''.
''Weak signals are the first important indications of a change. These may be understood as advanced, somewhat noisy and generally socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.
The benefits of weak signals can be seen when assessing their significance in an organization or a field concerned
and analysing how the phenomena reflected by the weak signals should be reacted on. 4 There remains some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants.
Hiltunen 16 provides a definition of weak signals as:‘‘‘‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
''Weak signals are meaningful as long as they are evaluated in the context of both their emergence and their evolution as a part of a pattern along with other weak signals.
They do not exist in isolation. Nevertheless weak signals do portend significance, even if the probability cannot be estimated easily,
so for example, James Hanson's presentation to the US Congress in 1988 about possible global warming on the horizon,
There are some tools for utilizing weak signals in organizational environments. One tool is called Strategy Signals, which aims to collect weak signals inside of an organization.
The tool is developed by the Finnish company Fountain Park. 5 Another tool for using weak signals in organizations is called the Futures Windows 5, in
which images of weak signals are shown in organization facilities. All the employees in the organization can send their images about weak signals to this tool.
The purpose of that tool is to disseminate weak signals in organizations easily and increase futures thinking
and innovating in the organization. In general weak signals are messages and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
In conclusion regarding definitions, weak signals refer to the early signs of possible but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.
They represent the first signs of paradigm shifts, or future trends, drivers or discontinuities. Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;
The collapse of the Berlin Wall and subsequently the Soviet union was weakly discernible in the mid 1980s through assessments of military capacities and responses to the‘‘Star wars''initiatives;
2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,
Then, the in the second part, the respondents were asked to identify a list of trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, weak signals and discontinuities.
i e. trends, drivers, shocks, discontinuities and weak signals=75 cells of content (Table 1; Qualitative review of Foresight (content) insights and patterns;
drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities and weak signals 3. 2. 2. 1. Trends. The trends obtained from the survey were mapped on the STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.
3. 2. 6. Weak signals The radar diagram below (Fig. 12) shows the orientations of the 171 weak signals identified by the respondents of the Big Picture Survey.
The following observations were made after the analysis of the Weak signals:(TD$FIG Fig. 12. Orientations of weak signals.
TD$FIG Fig. 13. Frequency distribution of top 10 weak signals. O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 309 Good response with 171 weak signals;
Lots of focus on Society and Culture=a well balanced orientation for a FTA audience; Provocative elements explored:
tipping points in culture, science and ecology; familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
Fig. 13 shows the frequency distribution of weak signals identified by the survey respondents and the most widely cited ones.
Table 6 gives the examples of weak signals by category. Compared to the previous elements, the distribution of weak signals appears to be balanced more
and nuanced in terms of sociocultural variables, but more definitive in terms of technological and ecological signals. In many areas, the weak signals if and when they become strong will signify real shifts toward new
and somewhat uncharted directions for societies hence they represent a good cross section of global anxieties as well as global aspirations great fodder for an extended strategic conversation. 3. 2. 6. 1. Further assessment
The respondents with a Foresight experience longer than 1 year expect most the majority of the weak signals to emerge in the medium term future (2016 2025),
and Governments who consider that most of the weak signals will occur in the mid-term (2016 2025).
Table 6 Examples of weak signals. Examples of weak signals by category A b c Society & Culture 61 Concept of rational behaviour in modernity losing value
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Futurology#Weak signals. 2c the future sign and wild cards (last visited on: March 14, 2009. 6 J. Smith, Presentation at the Centre for Innovation studies, Thecis Breakfast Edmonton Alberta, January 13th, 2009.7 J. Petersen, Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Madison Books, 2000.8
16 E. Hiltunen, Weak signals, Presentation given at the Finland futures research centre, 2007. Available at: http://www. slideshare. net/whatidiscover/weaksiggnal (last visited on:
There might also be some weak signals or experiences with somewhat comparable situations pointing at the potential unintended effects.
if we are always looking for weak signals we will certainly be caught unawares. Practical implications The assumption that disruptive events can be managed by planning
Tuomi sees only a limited role for the identification of weak signals in understanding the future,
weak signals and scenario methodologies. In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
Rossel 2011; Holopainen and Toivonen 2012. We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate.
there cannot be weak signals of vision.‘‘Weak signals',‘early warnings, 'and‘seeds of future'thus emerge in retrospective accounts that shape history into prototypical narrative structures.‘
‘Weak signals'of future can often be understood as narrative fragments that are used to compose meaningful stories that make sense of the present as an endpoint of past history.
The narrative logic requires that we tell where we came from and where we are going.
however, weak signals function as narrative fragments in retrospective stories. The emerging practice is abstracted to a level where there is sufficient stability for continuous stories to be told.
In both cases, weak signals can be detected empirically only after the fact, when the future is already here
On a theoretical level, the lack of predefined ontological blueprints means that weak signals cannot in any straightforwaar way be interpreted in a realist context,
and tell narrative stories using weak signals that make sense in our imagined futures. In practical terms, we can expand the repertoire of categories
In strategic decision-making, it is possible that the traditionalansoffian analysis of weak signals mainly produces fictional certainty that leads to managerial overconfidence and blindness to true novelty and uncertainties.
Weak signals: Ansoff today. Futures 44, no. 3: 198 205. Hughes, T. P. 1983. Networks of power:
Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures 36, no. 2 march: 201 18. Milian, M. 2009.
Weak signals as a flexible framing space for enhanced management and decision-making. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 307 20.
Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures 36, no. 2: 201 18. Mendonça, S, . and B. Sapio. 2009.
and interpret weak signals, wild cards (Amanatidou et al. 2012; Könnölä et al. 2012) and alternative options (Bezold et al. 2009;
RTDI priority-setting and regional coordination as well as joint programming and also supporting policy-making through the early identification of weak signals of emerging issues.
and also supporting policy-making through the early identification of weak signals of emerging issues. Attila Havas (Phd, 1997) is a Senior Research fellow at the Institute of Economics
and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11. Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
Chang. 77 (2010) 1061 1075.72 L. Ilmola, O. Kuusi, Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making, Futures 38 (2006) 908 924.73 C. Prell, K. Hubacek, M. S. Reed, C. Quinn, N. Jin, J
. Holden, T. P. Burt, M. Kirby, J. Sendzimir, If you have a hammer everything looks like a nail:
to avoid the exclusive interpretation of weak signals only in the context of the existing structures.
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
In the first phase, by scanning weak signals 22, all sorts of observations of striking innovation practiceswere collected in a loose and open manner.
Weak signals in the INFU project were defined as signals of emerging issues. They can sometimes hint about future changes.
A total of 63 weak signals were identified, fed into a common framework, and published on the internet site of the project.
Both interviews and survey were referring directly to the weak signals without introducing any assumptions on the socioeconomic context or causalities among the respective developments.
Web-Extracted Innovation Starting weak signals: Amplification Today data on the behaviour of people is collected already constantly
These results show that by using weak signals from diverse sources of information it was possible to generate visions covering a wide range of different perspectives.
Mapping and interpretation of weak signals is still in its infancy and thus an important challenge for further studies 31.
, 2012.31 M. Holopainen, M. Toivonen, Weak signals: Ansoff Today, Futures 44 (2012) 198 205.32 B. Ralston, W. Ralston, The Scenario planning Handbook:
to enable a systematic analysis of how different (weak signals refer to one another or what they mean to different stakeholders. 2 This is important
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
(i e. weak signals and wild cards) or creative elements to be included. Hence, it is not possible to link learning
and interpret weak signals, wild cards 48,49 and alternative options 46,50, 51 to support decision making. All this is critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis 45.
Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to imprrov the robustness of policies
and the deliberate inclusion and recognition of weak signals. There is deeper analysis of weak signals and of the possible interaction of all scanned issues and their relevance for strategic decision-making.
A repetitive character: since the horizon reveals more details each year, it is necessary to repeat the scan to see what has changed.
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
the identification and significaanc of faint or weak signals and wild cards, how to deal with complexity, the learning function of horizon scanning, stakeholder participation and how to increeas impact.
and interpret weak signals and wild cards. We can glimpse the methodological questions that need to be answered in the sections below.
Weak signals wild cards and stakeholder involvement In all scans questions arose regarding the ways in
which the number of entirely new issues and weak signals could be increased. New approaches were therefore being considered to boost stakeholder and public involvement, by for example the use of blogs and Wikipedia-like structures,
or weak signals for strong impact developments to come. Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government
In this respect the use of techniques to identify weak signals would have improved the farsightedness of the theses
To achieve such an objective a method based on identifying weak signals would be required a domain which is still in its infancy (Mendonça et al.
Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decisiionmaking. Futures, 38 (8), 908 924.
Marcus, C 2005. Future of Creative industries: Implications for Research policy. Working Document EUR 21471. Brussels: European commission.
Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures, 36 (2), 201 218. Price waterhouse coopers 2006. Global Entertainment and Meddi Outlook:
and analyze weak signals that enable actors to‘foresee'changes ahead Facilitate better understanding of potentially disruptive change Provide anticipatory intelligence about the systems
and collection and analysis of weak signals and wild cards has been facilitated by the rapid expansion of social networking capacities and online tools,
and analyse weak signals to‘foresee'likely future changes and to gain insights into complex interactions and emerging drivers of change Identify New s&t,
This networked mode of operations links with social networks as a means for identifying weak signals. 5. Addressing deficiencies
K. M. Weber et al. most recent information on weak signals, and FTA instituttion coordinating and integrating the different inputs
Identifying weak signals and developiin scenarios are crucial tools in preparing for the unexpeccted thus enabling a clearer understanding of possible pathways to tackle the challenges,
and analyse weak signals (Amanatidou et al. 2012). 6. Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union,<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/innovation-union-communication en. pdf>accessed 15 december
and from the EC-funded iknow project dedicated to the collection and analysis of wild cards and weak signals (iknow 2011).
Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.
Mendonc¸A s.,Cunha, M. P. E.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2003)‘ Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisattion'FEUNL Working Paper 432.
weak signals; horizon scanning; policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
Therefore they are referred usually at as faint or weak signals. These terms are connected closely, if not confused, with the concepts of emerging issues and wild cards.
While uncertainly and incomplettenes characterise weak signals, it is their sudden nature and high impact that mark wild cards.
when several weak signals combine together, based on interlinked possible impacts. 2. 2 Exploratory and issue-centred scanning There are different approaches
but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
Hiltunen provides a definition of weak signals as:‘‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
Weak signals can be divided further to physical or social signals (Uskali 2005) Wild cards Wild cards are events with a surprising character, a low probability and a high impact (Van Rij 2011).
and searches for weak signals in order to strengthen or question the specific hypotheses, i e. reinforce the hypothesised emerging issue
Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals and to monitor
and trace the weak signals and their sources. As a starting point a frame of reference is conceptualised for the chosen policy domains.
the two approaches should be seen as complementary (see Fig. 1). Exploratory scanning mainly refers to the first scanning phase (identification of weak signals)
Search engines and text-mining can be applied without the involvement of wider groups outside the project core team (nonparticiipatory) The second way of grouping involves the identification, processing and analysis of weak signals and emerging issues with the help of various levels of automation.
This can enable faster and timelier assessments and thus earlier detection of events, changes and possible weak signals.
Phase 1 relates to the identification of weak signals. Emerging issues are formulated usually on the basis of searches in different sources and expert interviews.
Phase 2 relates to the processing of weak signals. This phase consists of the following main steps:
Step 2 Clustering of weak signals. Step 3 Assessing the significance of clustered weak signals. Step 4 Framing the connected weak signals into clustered topics.
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.
Step 6 Identification of significant emerging issues. Phase 3 is devoted to the analysis and interpretation of emerging issues with relevance for policy-making.
a proper assesssmen of weak signals should be translated into policy recommendations. Thus, the last phase of the scanning process should be devoted to this particular task.
The novelty of weak signals as well as rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues, and also possible implications, could also be traced.
scientists and other futurists consider future analysts to be their most valuable source for weak signals (Hiltunen 2008b).
needs more sophisticated tools to capture the emerging and novel nature of weak signals. However, text-mining is useful in the processing phase as it identifies networks and clusters of concepts and phrases within huge data sets.
Identification of weak signals Phase 2: Processing of weak signals Phase 3: Analysis and interpretation Focused expert review High High High Wiki Low Low Low Twitter High low Low Surveys Low High High Conferences Low Medium High
Text-mining Low Medium Medium Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
i e. processing of weak signals. On the other hand, in the focused expert review, the main scanning process of the issue-centred scanning, spans through all the different phases of the scanning cycle
Twitter/wiki scanning which is complemented by processsin of weak signals..Focused expert review which is complemented by text-mining..
Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at
which signal is observed Origin (stakeholder (s) behind them) and novelty of weak signals Rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues Existence of a strategy already concerned with specific weak signal (s) and emerging issues by a government or industry, political party or lobby,
The value of the more‘conventional'methods like expert surveys, literature review and conferennc visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs like reviewing the state-of-the-art in a given field, searching for comprehensive reports on weak signals
participatory approach (b) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach (Twitter/wiki+processing of weak signals)( Focused expert review+text-mining)( Focused
) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach (Twitter/wiki+processing of weak signals)( Focused expert review+text-mining)( Focused expert review+survey+conferences) Connection
Clusters are based on occurrence of similar words in text files and through attached criteria of collected weak signals.
detecting, analysing and interpreting weak signals, scanning results may only be accepted with reluctance in evidence-based policy-making environments.
2008b)‘ Good sources of weak signals: A global study of where futurists look for weak signals',Journal of Futures studies, 12:21 42.
Ko nno la, T.,Salo, A.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V. and Vilkkumaa, E. 2012)‘ Facing the future:
Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312. Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
Uskali, T. 2005)‘ Paying attention to weak signals: The key conceep for innovation journalism',Innovation Journalism, 2/11<www. innovationjournalism. org>accessed 13 march 2012.
While the intellectual origins of‘horizon scanning'can be traced to the celebrated work by Ansoff (1975) on the recognition of weak signals,
and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned. Kuosa (2010) notes that the widely used, but somewhat imprecise, concept of weak signals‘seems to be everything
and anything that is related to substantial potential change'before he elaborates an alternative scanning framework that embodies concepts such as weak signals, drivers and trends.
On a somewhat different note, Ko nno la et al. 2007) argue that the collection of weak signals tends to produce relatively unstructured pools of signals
and propose the use of narrower‘units of analysis'that are more amenable to subsequent analyses.
Especially in the case of weak signals and wild cards, sense-making builds on the scanners'creative and heuristic capabilities to detect meaningful observations in the presence of scattered or no historical evidence (Dervin 1998.
discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011). The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
Ansoff, H. I. 1975)‘ Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals',Califonia Management Review, XVIII:
A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of informatiion'Futures, 42:42 8. Liesio, J.,Mild, P. and Salo,
Mendonc¸A s.,Pina e Cunha, M.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004)‘ Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisattion'Futures, 36: 201 18.
Saritas, O. and Smith, J. E. 2011)‘ The big picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312.
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