Understanding

Clear understanding (4)
Common understanding (26)
Deeper understanding (11)
Improved understanding (4)
Scientific understanding (3)
Shared understanding (27)
Understanding (253)

Synopsis: Understanding:

their orientation and the problems associated with their understanding of assumptions used in FTA and how to interpret

Other criteria such as a better understanding of future challenges and pathways or the formulation of alternative decision options are mere ancillary arguments.

and reflect an appropriate understanding of the changing characteristics of innovation and decision-making. Secondly, they should contribute to the mobilisation and coordination of the decision-making by different actors.

Conventional forecasting approaches with their aim of predicting the future were based on a linear understanding of processes of socio-technical change that is simply an inappropriate representation of reality and thus misleading rather than enlightening with respect to informing decisions.

and are also able in turn to contribute to enhancing theoretic understanding of innovation. This said we do acknowledge that some innovation theorists are likely to skip much of Section 3

Several interconnected research traditions have transformed our understanding of innovation processes and embraced notions of complexity, uncertainty and interactivity. 1 Even if certain 1 In particular evolutionary and Neo-Schumpeterian economics as well as Social Studies of Technology have made important contributions 2. 464 E. A Eriksson,

and bring it closer to a contemporary understanding of processes of innovation and technological change. Over the last ten to fifteen years

of the scope of forward-looking exercises can be interpreted as a reflection of the abandoning of linear models of technological change and the adoption of a systemic understanding of socio-technical change.

but in particular also decisionmakker from research, industry, policy-making and society, a shared understanding of current problems, goals and development options is expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.

This converging understanding of the issues at play is expected to contribute to improving implicitly the coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors, in line with the shared mental framework developed.

what we sometimes call conventional foresight has very much to do with the understanding of innovation as complex and interactive processes.

The even more traditional technology foresight standpoint developed from a more linear understanding of innovation does handle many of the challenges we discuss excellently (using best expert knowledge,

designed to exploit progressively improved understanding as time goes by. Combining insights on limitations to foresight (used here as an everyday term) and control,

After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s

to the identification of new socio-technical options, to the growing knowledge and understanding of their impacts, to the design of new types of policy options and to their integration into portfolios.

Another benefit is that the funding organizations can define the priorities based on a realistic understanding of what issues researchers are keen on pursuing

A new understanding of foresight gaining acceptance in the 1990s starting with Irvine and Martin 17 made clear that a targeted shaping of future developments is limited strictly

The crucial difference of our understanding of regulatory foresight is the main focus on the challenges for the regulatory regimes,

Regulation is required especially for the implementation of systems capable of understanding and automatically checking the content of image data unsuitable for children

. 40 Practical use of systems capable of understanding and automatically checking the content of image data unsuitable for children

Thus, multi-path mapping necessitates a deeper understanding of path emergence. This is in order to develop a robust map for an emerging situation,

This facilitates a greater understanding of the wider environment within which foresight exercises are implemented and the identification of many of the characteristics of emerging knowledge societies

effectiveness, appropriateness, sustainability and additionality. 6. Understanding the dynamics of foresight systems in three countries A first attempt to understand the dynamics of foresight systems can be based on the evaluation of three foresight exercises;

The development of a common impact assessment model requires a clear understanding of the way foresight influences specific impact areas.

and external factors to build up an understanding of how a foresight system works (Fig. 4a and b). Needless to say,

regional, national or EU (ERIA) policies, a much more refined set of ideal types should be developed, based on a thorough understanding of the main features of existing and hypothetical future universities.

For sensible future-oriented public policies and sound university strategies a better understanding of the current situation is needed,

The paper makes a convincing case for how one needs new tools to enable effective international positioning for comparative understanding about national innovation ability and performance.

understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, the effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making.

Common understanding of technological architecture as provided by machine learning models and delivered by decision support systems, may contribute to an open innovation paradigm where firms work together as part of an extended technological network 11.

Mannermaa 22 calls these hermeneutic studies, that aim at explicating a subjective understanding of possible future social realities.

Foresight, according to this understanding, is not planning itself, but is rather an important first step in an overall strategic planning process (Coates 1985 cited in 25).

we may state that the RIF process helped decision makers to develop a broader and deeper understanding of the challenges,

it did lead to a more encompassing understanding of the challenges, interests, options and timing aspects of a conjointly favorable course of action could be elaborated.

Creating shared understandings among the stakeholders about the possible future developments is also important in each field;

analysing and understanding, as well as finding ways to mitigate risks and adapt to risks and their consequences.

for example related to resource allocation or the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions. o Informative outcomes refer to the use of foresight to improve the understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.

Consensual vs. diverse future perspectives o Consensual future perspectives refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities

and construct the knowledge create an understanding and share it in networks of people. Futures and safe situations,

(e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions (f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems.

Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.

andwhere the central role is played by the understanding of knowledge and knowledgemanagement. In the knowledge-value society, innovation, technology development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas,

Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.

Among others, the depicted areas include the understanding of knowledge and knowledge management. The indicators depicting an above-average

and communication technologies ecommerce 3. 2. 3. Application of new knowledge 3. 3. Innovative society 3. 3. 1. Understanding of knowledge

Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050

Scenario planning needs to be rooted in a sufficient understanding of the milieu in which political decisions are made.

Some studies describe the theoretical benefit of scenarios, some drawing on general psychological understanding of human decision processes and biases

and creating a common language and shared understanding between different actors 40. Users often value the opportunity to explore contentious issues outside of the usual parameters in a safe space.

changing mind-sets and building shared understanding. Different potential structures emerge according to the type of links that are desired.

and develop a deeper understanding of how the context and process of scenario creation affects their impacts.

complication and complexity requiring expert training for their comprehension 5. Technical situations bordering on the scientifically unknown

and understanding of new science and future technologies (attempts to so inform the public have so far been limited of success) Improve the anticipation of

and its influence in Foresight studies The role of human behaviour in Foresight studies is ignored usually diminishing the understanding of the outcome.

The objective of the programme was to gain a deeper understanding of issues, perspectives and dynamics in order to develop smarter strategies.

and broadening the understanding of socio-technical dynamics. Scenarios have often been used to create a synthesis of future-oriented aspects prior to an interactive workshop,

Paradigms, trajectories and expectations offer partial understanding of how new technologies emerge, but have not answered these questions,

Constructive TA adds to this because of a broader & deeper understanding of socio-technical dynamics. In the case of the Frontiers Noe for nanotechnology, the programme involved research and preparation of these scenarios an input to 1-day multi-stakeholder workshops

Focused investments included nanofiltration (for effluent treatment), nanocoatings (for pigment and texture) and nanodiagnostics (for monitoring quality) and nanocharacterisation (for deeper understanding of paper materials.

The actors'understanding of strategy was included also in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved

the concepts of national innovation systems (NIS) and technology innovation systeem (TIS) are important in understanding how new technologies emerge

With roots in evolutionary econommic and their understanding of national innovation systems, Georghiou and Keenan compiled a list of‘common stated goals for foresight,

Other understandings of innovation would imply that customers or other societal actors also were included in Delphi surveys.

and based on this assumption we will discuss how different understandings of strategy and decision processes affect the understanding of foresight.

Concepts such as strategy methods priority-setting and foresight are not always familiar to scientists. Large parts of the science community often associate such terms with administration, bureaucracy, political intervention in science and similar, negatively associated terms,

and (3) the resource-based view on strategy A strongly related issue is the understanding of decision processes.

and M. Borup With this understanding of strategy it is logical to use forecasting methods capable of analysing the uncertainties in the future strategic environment.

In the archetypal version of this, understanding of strategy priority-setting in research councils comes about after negotiations between its members

The context is not related to any particular understanding of science or technological development but to powers and political interests in the affected areas of science and technology;

Whereas the Porter-inspired understanding of foresight focuses on the strategic environment, a contrasting understanding focuses on an organisation's internal resources,

in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology; Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight

and understandings of the strategy processse that were undertaken (see Table 2). In the case of the Technical research Council a variety of rationales

and understandings are represented. In contrast, in the Energy research programme there seems to exist a more coherent understanding of strategy associated with developing new energy technologies.

Table 2. Rationales for strategy functions as reflected in the interviews with actors involved in the strategy process.

Third, the study shows that different understandings of and approaches to strategy exist concurrrentl among the participants in the cases studied,

In any case it is a long-term venture to improve academia's and the science communities'understanding of foresight and of strategy in general.

In addition to the contribbutio a particular thematic area might make to scientific understanding, socioeconomic development, etc. a further important factor to bear in mind

on the understanding that it would provide a more participative (involving knowledge users as well as producers) and future-oriented (visionary) approach to identifying topic areas suitable for new FNR programmes.

Similar to this shift in approaches to innovation processes, there has been a shift in the conceptual understanding of policy processes.

Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.

This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors

technology and innovation options among players, creating debate Awareness of the systemic character of change processes Foresight skills are developed in a wider circle Dialogues in new combinations of experts and stakeholders and a shared understanding

Discussions of foresight highlight the need for a trade-off between a workable commmo understanding of generic features and contingent national,

The present case of a Norwegian municipal vision project points to the often implicitly assumed shared understanding of who young people are

in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy

and Lau (2003), towards a new understanding of foresight methodology and practice (Fuller and De Smedt 2008).

Therefore we need a broader understanding of reflexivity Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:

and limits of inclusive foresight in municipal planning processes and expounds the challenges of our contemporary understanding of communicative planning tools as power instruments (Pløger 2002).

4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of

and bio-society (7) Information and communications (8) Understanding and human interaction (9) Materials (10) Global economy Apart from its title, each panel was characterised by a description of about 150

in the understanding that the panels would reinterpret and redefine these descriptions. Two further aspects in the definition of panels are noteworthy:

Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural

competence Lifelong learning and understanding Deep understanding of own culture 9. Materials Printed electronics Biomimetic materials Controlled synthesis of polymers 10.

while informative use refers to the development of an improved shared understanding of the R&i system

They call for a better understanding of issues to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance.

and to the increasing role of modelling and simulation in developing a better understanding of complexity

a more systematic understanding of the key elements of this adaptation is emerging. The main context variables taken into account for Tailoring Foresight are focus,

evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism, Regional Studies 31 (5)( 1997) 533 544.36 G. C. Unruh, Understanding carbon lock in, Energy Policy 28 (12)( 2000

The open intelligence concept contrasts sharply with the more common concept of targeted intelligence or the understanding of business intelligence as an analytical function dealing with internal corporate data.

from international trade flows to the development of new materials that defy comprehension, let alone quantitative analysis and prediction.

and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform

if it is embedded in an understanding of the research systems in which they operate, expressed as a series of cascading visions 25.

and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation

and dedicated methods to improve the awareness and understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.

Foresight activities often focus on the production of consensual future perspectives that refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.

/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 253 Consensual future perspectives refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.

Other benefits that could be achieved through the Foresight process include creation of linkages among participants, development of a shared understanding on the various issues at stake,

VTT Water Research Roadmap 2006b Informative Create common understanding on future challenges and VTT expertise. Instrumental Support the formation of different streams of R&d actions within VTT.

Consensual Shared understandings were searched for in order to be able to give action recommendations for the Nordic key actors.

Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.

National Technology foresight in China Informative Understanding future S&t developments and needs. NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.

informative processes that create understanding on common priorities, relevant collaborative networks and/or future actions.

They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society

IRRIIS Scenario work was part of the European integrated project that provided improved understanding of the developments in the security field.

In the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight the major challenge was to create shared understandings on future hydrogen-based energy systems between different stakeholder groups representing five different countries.

and instrumental outcomes) Priorities foresight can be characterised as consensual and instrumental processes that create common understanding on priorities, networks and/or future actions as well as support the specific foreseen decision-making situation.

Most of the projects we analysed have important informative functions in sense that they aim to provide new knowledge for better understanding of issues and of their future implications and challenges.

the (iv) translation and (v) interpretation of this knowledge to create understanding of its implications for the future of the organisation in question (further posits.

the (vi) assimilation and (vii) evaluation of this understanding to produce a commitment to action in a particular organisation.

Understanding: creation of a shared understanding and mutual appreciation of the topics in question, the factors influencing them, the wider systems in

which they are embedded. Typical methods employed here are literature reviews, interviews with experts, horizon scanning. Roughly Horton's subtasks (i),(ii) and (iii.

and apply an effective systemic understanding of the interplay of major social and technological developments. Despite the phenomenal complexity of the contemporary world, there are possibilities for such individuals

We may anticipate that developments in S&t that profoundly affect our understanding of what it is to be human (e g. cognitive enhancement, artificial intelligence,

or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,

Involvement inthe FTAPROCESS thus increases the understanding of itsoutcomes and their relevance in various situations,

I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 271 understanding themselves and their worlds, or whatever.

and the creation of shared understandings. There are many accounts of deep intellectual (and emotional) relationships sustained through written communication.

But qualitative speculation about how and how far new technologies may be used will also do well to be grounded in terms of available understanding (i e. models) of product cycles and diffusion curves.

''Nanotechnologies and the royal society and royal academy of engineering's inquiry, Public Understanding of Science 16 (3)( 2007) 345 364.40 S. J. Wood, R. Jones

Risk and perceptions of it are closely related to fear making the proper understanding of the real physical nature of risk of prime importance to framing regulations where the politics of fear may intrude irrationally.

consensus conferences and strenuous efforts to increase the publics'understanding of science. All these procedures highlighted the breadth of the cascade of situations as they have evolved over the last 40 years.

1. Participation by both men and women through freedom of association and expression on the one hand and an organised civil society on the other hand. 2. Consensus oriented resulting from an understanding of the historical, cultural and social contexts of a given society and community.

-Create greater public awareness and understanding of new science and future technologies. -Improve the anticipation of

participation and inclusiveness, understanding of all points of view (consensus-oriented), responsiveness which is related to effectiveness and efficiency,

since it led to the understanding that FTA ACTIVITIES, and its umbrella communities, should adopt necessarily more complex perspectives.

changes our understanding of what it is to be human Shortage of science in the West,

law and life styles Dependence on anti-factual information, failing roots of knowledge and understanding Declining male fertility Human cloning Science & Tech. 33 Ubiquitous connectivity web

or apply them (as we have seen with scenario planning) with little comprehension of their essential components.

but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.

but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems which interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.

and to develop an understanding of their interconnectedness and their implications on potential policy options.

Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore

and stakeholders towards achieving a common understanding on non-sustainable trends, offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers.

and‘‘uncertainty'',referring to a more genuine lack of systematic understanding of causal relations (Knight 1921, see also Runde 1998).

in order to get a better understanding of selected factors and linkages between these factors. But there needs to be a clear understanding of the relevant parameters and of the causal relationships between theses parameters.

In relation to the typology of levels of knowledge described in chapter 2 it can be concluded that models are focussed mainly on improving knowledge in the field of knowns.

All gains and losses thought to be relevant are measured in the same units to enable Table II Categorisation of FTA METHODS Structurally open methods Structurally closed methods No fixed setting Predefined setting Mainly explorative More or less clear understanding of relevant

and to separate facts from norms Focus on effects inside the predefined system Help getting a rough understanding on effects Effects outside the system cannot be detected Open in principle to detect effects beyond system boundaries Specifications

Similar to CBA, a rough understanding of the causal relation relevant for a policy intervention is needed to applymca.

It helps to get a better understanding of discursive or participative approaches, on their potential role for gaining knowledge that is needed for anticipating unintended effects of policies.

or understanding, on how to really apply (implement) foresight and how to extract real value from the results of foresight studies and projects.

The starting slate is never clean extremely tiny errors in understanding where the system starts from can send any‘‘forecast''off in totally the wrong direction.

and to generate an understanding of these different perspectives on potential policy options. B Enable the generation of a range of future options

and to enable users to develop an understanding of implications these different perspectives on potential policy options.

Together these four elements formed an integral process where each stage produced a deeper understanding of different socio-technical interconnections that affect the way the future unfolds,

Wasteful behaviour in both the private consumers and industry (especially retail) is considered undesirable Environmental values and understanding of nature's processes highly valued.

when this understanding becomes sufficient, the course of development might be altered (controlled) when the technology is still emerging and not yet entrenched.

an understanding of the dynamics is necessary. As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,

tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.

and understanding of nanotubes production and characteristics13 have led to expectations on the level of the society.

These options are based on advances in the understanding of and the control to determine (beforehand) the characteristics of nanotubes.

an understanding of the early dynamics is necessary. As argued above, applying the proposed method helps to increase this understanding.

The same method, thus, will be useful as input for CTA studies in which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved.

''As a project which aims to advance our understanding of human and environmental systems, Futurict will basically act as a Knowledge Accelerator,

and policymakers to develop a shared understanding of what constitutes a satisfactory agreement, i e. relevant, accurate,

and environmental consequences or the threat to stimulate new understandings of dnaturalt and dartificialt or even dbeing humant are arising.

He expands the understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty, 'which regards the identity of the components of the business (micro) environment.

the speculative profit opportunities of Knight or the idiosyncratic individual interests of Hayek and the more collective tacit understandings of progress highlighted by Polanyi (Mirowski 1998;

The Bergsonian claim is need that we a broader understanding of rationality if we want to understand innovation, creativity, and evolution.

The biological roots of human understanding. Boston, MA: New Science Library. Mead, G. H. 1907.

'The boundaries of the tectonic plates and the understanding of the process of subduction are elucidated reasonably well distinguishing two processes differing in terms of their tendency to follow‘stiction'or‘lubrication'.

The important issue then becomes the understanding of howideas do emerge, in a random manner and sometimes fleetingly, from the fuzzy boundary between the unknown and the barely appreciated.

Recognising an‘expert'and coming to some understanding of how expert the individual was, was an underlying concern.

and Loveridge (1982)) that permitted an understanding of their level of expertise. The headings of the self-assessment criteria were:(

and largely unseen but will require deep understanding if the phenomenon described by George Monibot above is to be avoided.

Skills in understanding what algorithms do in producing FTA outcoome becomes essential for presentation to the polity for discussion

what raw computer power will be able to achieve in improving our understanding of complex, interactive global systems remains to be seen.

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