| Clear understanding (4) |  |
| Common understanding (26) | |
| Deeper understanding (11) | |
| Improved understanding (4) | |
| Scientific understanding (3) | |
| Shared understanding (27) | |
| Understanding (253) | |
| Clear understanding (4) | |
| Common understanding (26) | |
| Deeper understanding (11) | |
| Improved understanding (4) | |
| Scientific understanding (3) | |
| Shared understanding (27) | |
| Understanding (253) | |
their orientation and the problems associated with their understanding of assumptions used in FTA and how to interpret
Other criteria such as a better understanding of future challenges and pathways or the formulation of alternative decision options are mere ancillary arguments.
and reflect an appropriate understanding of the changing characteristics of innovation and decision-making. Secondly, they should contribute to the mobilisation and coordination of the decision-making by different actors.
Conventional forecasting approaches with their aim of predicting the future were based on a linear understanding of processes of socio-technical change that is simply an inappropriate representation of reality and thus misleading rather than enlightening with respect to informing decisions.
and are also able in turn to contribute to enhancing theoretic understanding of innovation. This said we do acknowledge that some innovation theorists are likely to skip much of Section 3
Several interconnected research traditions have transformed our understanding of innovation processes and embraced notions of complexity, uncertainty and interactivity. 1 Even if certain 1 In particular evolutionary and Neo-Schumpeterian economics as well as Social Studies of Technology have made important contributions 2. 464 E. A Eriksson,
and bring it closer to a contemporary understanding of processes of innovation and technological change. Over the last ten to fifteen years
of the scope of forward-looking exercises can be interpreted as a reflection of the abandoning of linear models of technological change and the adoption of a systemic understanding of socio-technical change.
This converging understanding of the issues at play is expected to contribute to improving implicitly the coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors, in line with the shared mental framework developed.
what we sometimes call conventional foresight has very much to do with the understanding of innovation as complex and interactive processes.
The even more traditional technology foresight standpoint developed from a more linear understanding of innovation does handle many of the challenges we discuss excellently (using best expert knowledge,
After all, it is external developments that drive the need for adaptation. 24 The understanding of innovation systems analysis as used here is based on the conventional actor-oriented approach as pioneered by Freeman 44 and Lundvall 45 in the late 1980s and early 1990s
to the identification of new socio-technical options, to the growing knowledge and understanding of their impacts, to the design of new types of policy options and to their integration into portfolios.
Another benefit is that the funding organizations can define the priorities based on a realistic understanding of what issues researchers are keen on pursuing
A new understanding of foresight gaining acceptance in the 1990s starting with Irvine and Martin 17 made clear that a targeted shaping of future developments is limited strictly
The crucial difference of our understanding of regulatory foresight is the main focus on the challenges for the regulatory regimes,
Regulation is required especially for the implementation of systems capable of understanding and automatically checking the content of image data unsuitable for children
. 40 Practical use of systems capable of understanding and automatically checking the content of image data unsuitable for children
This facilitates a greater understanding of the wider environment within which foresight exercises are implemented and the identification of many of the characteristics of emerging knowledge societies
effectiveness, appropriateness, sustainability and additionality. 6. Understanding the dynamics of foresight systems in three countries A first attempt to understand the dynamics of foresight systems can be based on the evaluation of three foresight exercises;
and external factors to build up an understanding of how a foresight system works (Fig. 4a and b). Needless to say,
regional, national or EU (ERIA) policies, a much more refined set of ideal types should be developed, based on a thorough understanding of the main features of existing and hypothetical future universities.
For sensible future-oriented public policies and sound university strategies a better understanding of the current situation is needed,
The paper makes a convincing case for how one needs new tools to enable effective international positioning for comparative understanding about national innovation ability and performance.
understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, the effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making.
Mannermaa 22 calls these hermeneutic studies, that aim at explicating a subjective understanding of possible future social realities.
Foresight, according to this understanding, is not planning itself, but is rather an important first step in an overall strategic planning process (Coates 1985 cited in 25).
it did lead to a more encompassing understanding of the challenges, interests, options and timing aspects of a conjointly favorable course of action could be elaborated.
analysing and understanding, as well as finding ways to mitigate risks and adapt to risks and their consequences.
for example related to resource allocation or the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions. o Informative outcomes refer to the use of foresight to improve the understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
and construct the knowledge create an understanding and share it in networks of people. Futures and safe situations,
(e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions (f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems.
Thereby the inclusion of transitional phases of economies to the comparative analyses of economic and innovation systems deepens the understanding of the long-term socioeconomic changes and dynamics.
andwhere the central role is played by the understanding of knowledge and knowledgemanagement. In the knowledge-value society, innovation, technology development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas,
Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.
Among others, the depicted areas include the understanding of knowledge and knowledge management. The indicators depicting an above-average
and communication technologies ecommerce 3. 2. 3. Application of new knowledge 3. 3. Innovative society 3. 3. 1. Understanding of knowledge
Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050
Scenario planning needs to be rooted in a sufficient understanding of the milieu in which political decisions are made.
Some studies describe the theoretical benefit of scenarios, some drawing on general psychological understanding of human decision processes and biases
complication and complexity requiring expert training for their comprehension 5. Technical situations bordering on the scientifically unknown
and understanding of new science and future technologies (attempts to so inform the public have so far been limited of success) Improve the anticipation of
and its influence in Foresight studies The role of human behaviour in Foresight studies is ignored usually diminishing the understanding of the outcome.
and broadening the understanding of socio-technical dynamics. Scenarios have often been used to create a synthesis of future-oriented aspects prior to an interactive workshop,
Paradigms, trajectories and expectations offer partial understanding of how new technologies emerge, but have not answered these questions,
The actors'understanding of strategy was included also in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved
the concepts of national innovation systems (NIS) and technology innovation systeem (TIS) are important in understanding how new technologies emerge
With roots in evolutionary econommic and their understanding of national innovation systems, Georghiou and Keenan compiled a list of‘common stated goals for foresight,
Other understandings of innovation would imply that customers or other societal actors also were included in Delphi surveys.
and based on this assumption we will discuss how different understandings of strategy and decision processes affect the understanding of foresight.
Concepts such as strategy methods priority-setting and foresight are not always familiar to scientists. Large parts of the science community often associate such terms with administration, bureaucracy, political intervention in science and similar, negatively associated terms,
and (3) the resource-based view on strategy A strongly related issue is the understanding of decision processes.
and M. Borup With this understanding of strategy it is logical to use forecasting methods capable of analysing the uncertainties in the future strategic environment.
In the archetypal version of this, understanding of strategy priority-setting in research councils comes about after negotiations between its members
The context is not related to any particular understanding of science or technological development but to powers and political interests in the affected areas of science and technology;
Whereas the Porter-inspired understanding of foresight focuses on the strategic environment, a contrasting understanding focuses on an organisation's internal resources,
in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology; Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
and understandings of the strategy processse that were undertaken (see Table 2). In the case of the Technical research Council a variety of rationales
and understandings are represented. In contrast, in the Energy research programme there seems to exist a more coherent understanding of strategy associated with developing new energy technologies.
Table 2. Rationales for strategy functions as reflected in the interviews with actors involved in the strategy process.
Third, the study shows that different understandings of and approaches to strategy exist concurrrentl among the participants in the cases studied,
In any case it is a long-term venture to improve academia's and the science communities'understanding of foresight and of strategy in general.
on the understanding that it would provide a more participative (involving knowledge users as well as producers) and future-oriented (visionary) approach to identifying topic areas suitable for new FNR programmes.
Similar to this shift in approaches to innovation processes, there has been a shift in the conceptual understanding of policy processes.
This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors
Discussions of foresight highlight the need for a trade-off between a workable commmo understanding of generic features and contingent national,
in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy
and Lau (2003), towards a new understanding of foresight methodology and practice (Fuller and De Smedt 2008).
Therefore we need a broader understanding of reflexivity Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:
and limits of inclusive foresight in municipal planning processes and expounds the challenges of our contemporary understanding of communicative planning tools as power instruments (Pløger 2002).
4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of
and bio-society (7) Information and communications (8) Understanding and human interaction (9) Materials (10) Global economy Apart from its title, each panel was characterised by a description of about 150
in the understanding that the panels would reinterpret and redefine these descriptions. Two further aspects in the definition of panels are noteworthy:
Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
competence Lifelong learning and understanding Deep understanding of own culture 9. Materials Printed electronics Biomimetic materials Controlled synthesis of polymers 10.
They call for a better understanding of issues to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance.
and to the increasing role of modelling and simulation in developing a better understanding of complexity
a more systematic understanding of the key elements of this adaptation is emerging. The main context variables taken into account for Tailoring Foresight are focus,
evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism, Regional Studies 31 (5)( 1997) 533 544.36 G. C. Unruh, Understanding carbon lock in, Energy Policy 28 (12)( 2000
The open intelligence concept contrasts sharply with the more common concept of targeted intelligence or the understanding of business intelligence as an analytical function dealing with internal corporate data.
from international trade flows to the development of new materials that defy comprehension, let alone quantitative analysis and prediction.
and helped to shape the international understanding of the function of technology foresight as having a role in priority setting 2. It remains a key application for large Delphi exercises as witnessed by the recent Chinese survey 3. Foresight is used also to inform
if it is embedded in an understanding of the research systems in which they operate, expressed as a series of cascading visions 25.
and final outcomes 8. The systemic understanding of innovation processes has challenged conventional technology driven forecasting practices and called for new participatory foresight approaches that address also the consideration of diverse perspectives, formation
and dedicated methods to improve the awareness and understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.
National Technology foresight in China Informative Understanding future S&t developments and needs. NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.
informative processes that create understanding on common priorities, relevant collaborative networks and/or future actions.
They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society
Most of the projects we analysed have important informative functions in sense that they aim to provide new knowledge for better understanding of issues and of their future implications and challenges.
the (iv) translation and (v) interpretation of this knowledge to create understanding of its implications for the future of the organisation in question (further posits.
the (vi) assimilation and (vii) evaluation of this understanding to produce a commitment to action in a particular organisation.
Understanding: creation of a shared understanding and mutual appreciation of the topics in question, the factors influencing them, the wider systems in
and apply an effective systemic understanding of the interplay of major social and technological developments. Despite the phenomenal complexity of the contemporary world, there are possibilities for such individuals
We may anticipate that developments in S&t that profoundly affect our understanding of what it is to be human (e g. cognitive enhancement, artificial intelligence,
Involvement inthe FTAPROCESS thus increases the understanding of itsoutcomes and their relevance in various situations,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 271 understanding themselves and their worlds, or whatever.
But qualitative speculation about how and how far new technologies may be used will also do well to be grounded in terms of available understanding (i e. models) of product cycles and diffusion curves.
''Nanotechnologies and the royal society and royal academy of engineering's inquiry, Public Understanding of Science 16 (3)( 2007) 345 364.40 S. J. Wood, R. Jones
Risk and perceptions of it are closely related to fear making the proper understanding of the real physical nature of risk of prime importance to framing regulations where the politics of fear may intrude irrationally.
consensus conferences and strenuous efforts to increase the publics'understanding of science. All these procedures highlighted the breadth of the cascade of situations as they have evolved over the last 40 years.
1. Participation by both men and women through freedom of association and expression on the one hand and an organised civil society on the other hand. 2. Consensus oriented resulting from an understanding of the historical, cultural and social contexts of a given society and community.
-Create greater public awareness and understanding of new science and future technologies. -Improve the anticipation of
participation and inclusiveness, understanding of all points of view (consensus-oriented), responsiveness which is related to effectiveness and efficiency,
since it led to the understanding that FTA ACTIVITIES, and its umbrella communities, should adopt necessarily more complex perspectives.
changes our understanding of what it is to be human Shortage of science in the West,
law and life styles Dependence on anti-factual information, failing roots of knowledge and understanding Declining male fertility Human cloning Science & Tech. 33 Ubiquitous connectivity web
or apply them (as we have seen with scenario planning) with little comprehension of their essential components.
but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems which interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
and to develop an understanding of their interconnectedness and their implications on potential policy options.
Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
and‘‘uncertainty'',referring to a more genuine lack of systematic understanding of causal relations (Knight 1921, see also Runde 1998).
in order to get a better understanding of selected factors and linkages between these factors. But there needs to be a clear understanding of the relevant parameters and of the causal relationships between theses parameters.
and to separate facts from norms Focus on effects inside the predefined system Help getting a rough understanding on effects Effects outside the system cannot be detected Open in principle to detect effects beyond system boundaries Specifications
Similar to CBA, a rough understanding of the causal relation relevant for a policy intervention is needed to applymca.
It helps to get a better understanding of discursive or participative approaches, on their potential role for gaining knowledge that is needed for anticipating unintended effects of policies.
or understanding, on how to really apply (implement) foresight and how to extract real value from the results of foresight studies and projects.
The starting slate is never clean extremely tiny errors in understanding where the system starts from can send any‘‘forecast''off in totally the wrong direction.
and to generate an understanding of these different perspectives on potential policy options. B Enable the generation of a range of future options
and to enable users to develop an understanding of implications these different perspectives on potential policy options.
Wasteful behaviour in both the private consumers and industry (especially retail) is considered undesirable Environmental values and understanding of nature's processes highly valued.
when this understanding becomes sufficient, the course of development might be altered (controlled) when the technology is still emerging and not yet entrenched.
an understanding of the dynamics is necessary. As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
and understanding of nanotubes production and characteristics13 have led to expectations on the level of the society.
These options are based on advances in the understanding of and the control to determine (beforehand) the characteristics of nanotubes.
an understanding of the early dynamics is necessary. As argued above, applying the proposed method helps to increase this understanding.
The same method, thus, will be useful as input for CTA studies in which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved.
''As a project which aims to advance our understanding of human and environmental systems, Futurict will basically act as a Knowledge Accelerator,
and environmental consequences or the threat to stimulate new understandings of dnaturalt and dartificialt or even dbeing humant are arising.
He expands the understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty, 'which regards the identity of the components of the business (micro) environment.
the speculative profit opportunities of Knight or the idiosyncratic individual interests of Hayek and the more collective tacit understandings of progress highlighted by Polanyi (Mirowski 1998;
The Bergsonian claim is need that we a broader understanding of rationality if we want to understand innovation, creativity, and evolution.
The biological roots of human understanding. Boston, MA: New Science Library. Mead, G. H. 1907.
'The boundaries of the tectonic plates and the understanding of the process of subduction are elucidated reasonably well distinguishing two processes differing in terms of their tendency to follow‘stiction'or‘lubrication'.
The important issue then becomes the understanding of howideas do emerge, in a random manner and sometimes fleetingly, from the fuzzy boundary between the unknown and the barely appreciated.
Recognising an‘expert'and coming to some understanding of how expert the individual was, was an underlying concern.
and Loveridge (1982)) that permitted an understanding of their level of expertise. The headings of the self-assessment criteria were:(
and largely unseen but will require deep understanding if the phenomenon described by George Monibot above is to be avoided.
Skills in understanding what algorithms do in producing FTA outcoome becomes essential for presentation to the polity for discussion
what raw computer power will be able to achieve in improving our understanding of complex, interactive global systems remains to be seen.
We expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty, 'which regards the identity of the components of the businees (micro) environment.
We thus expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty'
We aim at expanding our understanding of environmental uncertainty by exploring the different kinds of drivers of change
by rooting them in an understanding of the long-term dynamics of technologies, economics, society, and politics.
and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.
and in understanding how networks operate and how a network environment can enhance the core competencies of a firm:
Both forecasting and technology assessmeen provide a more factual and numerical understanding of a business's financial and technical risks
firm's self-organising capability-Cooperative sustainabiliit net-Network's self-organisation-Continuous learning/adaptation-Creativity in decisionmakkin Operations-Focus on understanding
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
This understanding was used then as a validation model for the IA leads. Fig. 5 indicates that each IA has a robust set of unique technologies indicated by the unlabeled lines extending out from the IA markers.
which future opportunities to fund. 4. 4. Link analysis of DOE LDRD The Sandia-specific link analysis assisted in the understanding of the technologies within,
as we propose it, calls for understanding of historical paths in an organisation. Every organisation is faced, from time to time,
Forward-looking sensibility is ineluctably related to contextual historical understanding, and vice versa. Thus, foresight exercises would benefit from the increased historical depth,
It seeks to gain basic understanding of the technology how it works and what functions it can accomplish (Step A). In addition,
This analyssi contributes to an understanding of the fields involved, which is necessary to identify technical experts.
A new paradigm for understanding industrial innovation. In Open innovatiion Researching a new paradigm, ed. H. W. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke,
and understanding as well as ensuring societal relevance; B policy dialogues initiated by policy makers to gain public support (not to be confused with the process of developing policies in the first place;
and has reached a joint understanding of the subject and its challenges as well as a joint view of the future with potential paths to move forward successfully.
and to crystallize a joint understanding of‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''(steps 1, 2, 3, 4 in the framework outlined above.
B ensuring relevance and a joint understanding through appropriate presentation and transfer of results from Foresight and related strategy processes;
Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
but the engagement with workshop participants indicated that there was a need for greater understanding of the pathways,
natural and anthropogenic disasters and their consequences based on monitoring data and advanced understanding of their origins and development 57.1 1. 71 Techniques for prospecting natural resources,
Competitive intelligence is also important to retain a dynamic understanding of the technology trajectories of the surrounding industrial environment (Nelson, 1997.
and staying abreast of technological change, acquiring an advanced understanding of technology and its potential market shifting effects,
Considering the potential roles of fta in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles.
Dealing with disruptive changes and grand challenges in particular therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general,
The first part of this introductory paper considers the potential roles of fta in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and fundamental transformations,
FTA has a potentially useful role to play in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses
and unknown unknowns 2. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches 3. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges 4. Joint responses to grand challenges Below we will elaborate on each of these issues. 2. Known unknowns,
and for control of costs would be lost. 4. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturally lend themselves to a global outlook,
since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.
The right understanding where a certain technology is in its TLC is important to estimate its future development,
if the technology is worth investing in by better understanding how such technology might develop in the future.
create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process, and legitimate a chosen course of action through engagement and dialogue.
according to Georghiou and Harper 3. We can further extend this broader understanding by stressing that FTA can be highly relevant beyond the domain of STI policies.
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