| Environmental issue (10) |  |
| Future issue (13) | |
| Important issue (13) | |
| Issue (947) | |
| Long-term issue (6) | |
| Main issue (8) | |
| Methodological issue (9) | |
| New issue (6) | |
| Real issue (5) | |
| Relevant issue (3) | |
| Social issue (13) | |
| Societal issue (11) | |
| Special issue (60) | |
| Strategic issue (5) | |
(DG JRC-IPTS), E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 20 february 2005 The contribution included in this special issue builds on material presented to the first EU US Scientific Seminar
Scapolo@cec. eu. int Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 The seminar was organised to encourage cross-fertilization along six key issues of relevance for FTA research:
One of the main issues introduced was methodology selection and the perennial conflict between the search for methodological perfection and ease of implementation.
The issue related to combination of methods was reviewed and in particular, using multiple methods in controlled experiment mode.
The discussion also addressed the wider issues of the broadening perspectives that are being introduced to future work beyond technology and its development.
The longstanding issue of the need for involvement (and engagement) by decision makers in the study were stressed also.
The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.
This session was devoted to the issues of evaluation of FTA and its techniques and processes.
The main high-level issues for evaluation were how to reconcile the routinization and standardisation that evaluation encourages with the creativity and dwild cardt nature of many of the ideas implicit in good FTA.
and thereby encouraging widespread innovation in organisational responses to the challenges of the future. 6. Importing ideas As might be expected of a session dealing with new ideas on FTA there was a wide diversity of suggestions and issues presented.
and especially about issues of substitution, lock in, path dependency. Lock ins occur early in technological trajectories,
whether the foresight community itself was locked-in in methodological terms given the age profile of methods. 7. This issue The articles of this issue only partly cover the richness of the papers delivered at the Seminar.
Among the methodological issues that could be tackled to improve the FTA field and start to turn it into a more scientific field,
This converging understanding of the issues at play is expected to contribute to improving implicitly the coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors, in line with the shared mental framework developed.
and issues only rather than aiming at solutions. 6 See in particular the experiences made in the UK especially the most recent evaluation of the UK Foresight 12,
i e. it deals with issues like what assets to acquire as opposed to the operational decisions on how to deploy
First of all, one needs to clarify the focal issue of the strategy development exercise, i e. the main question or problem that the addressee of an exercise would like to have tackled.
these focal issues are usually related to societal goals at fairly aggregate levels (How can we achieve an overarching transition towards a more sustainable energy supply system?.
In the private sector, focal issues can be much more specific, dealing for instance with the future positioning of a firm
Secondly, the analytical boundaries of the innovation system that determines the evolution of the focal issue need to be clarified.
It is our experience that a good initial focal issue is important for a successful first workshop,
Relevant with regard to current strategic issues. Even though scenarios depict future developments it is current policy-making they shall inform.
each scenario should present interesting strategic issues, and the whole set of scenarios should represent the full range of most salient such issues as well as possible (for tractability the number of framework scenarios is held normally at just three or four).
starting to specify each scenario in terms of key drivers and other descriptors of relevance to the focal issue.
A possible starting point is therefore a debate on visions related to the focal issue of the exercise.
The options delivered by the scenarios have also been assessed with respect to our focal issue. From today's perspective, portfolio analysis then looks across the scenarios
This is why issues of policy coordination both between different policy areas and between public and private actors have started to play such an important role in policymakkingwithin such a comprehensive setting,
Another issue is bringing the real options approach to bear at more than just the conceptual level.
Handbook of Systems analysis, Craft Issues and Procedural Choices, Elsevier/John Wiley, New york, 1988.22 S. K. Gupta, J. Rosenhead, Robustness in sequential investment decisions, Manage.
Methodologically, the processwas based on the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, the deployment ofrobust Portfoliomodeling (RPM) in the identification of promising research issues,
These issues were elaborated from national and European perspectives, which served to highlight the benefits of creating international RTD networks.
and assessed these issues in view of their perceived novelty. They were asked also to indicate how interested they would be in participating in a possible research project on any given research issue,
the Researchers proposed a total of 317 issues. These issues were assessed by Researchers and Industrial Table 1 Phases of the Woodwisdom-Net consultation process Task Participants Schedule 1. Solicitation of research issues Researchers Mid-july Mid-october‘05
2. Assessment of research issues Researchers December‘05 Mid-january‘06 3. Assessment of research issues Industrial leaders Three last weeks of January‘06 4. Initial
which allowed the Researchers to submit as many issues as they desired. For the purpose of information management, Researchers were asked to indicate which research area
and sub-area the issue would fit best within a taxonomical framework that was developed for the research issues.
This framework was helpful in that it helped the participants identify the issues that they were interested most In for each issue,
Researchers were asked also to justify the issue by describing expected results and impacts (e g.,, enhancement of competitiveness),
and to describe why the issue would merit collaborative European research funding. Finally, they were asked to indicate
whether the issue was characterized as basic or applied research. The questionnaire was open from Mid-june 2005 until Mid-october 2005.
whereafter they could assess those issues that they were interested in. Within each of the 23 sub-areas, some 10 to 50 Researchers provided assessments
For each issue, Researchers were asked first to assess the issue with regard to Novelty (i e.,, the extent to which they felt that the proposed issue was novel in wood material science.
Second, they were asked to estimate how interested they would be in participating in eventual projects on the issue.
Novelty was assessed using a seven-point Likert-scale, while participation was evaluated by choosing one of the following statements:
whereafter they could assess the issues they deemed interesting. The questionnaire was open in January 2006.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Industrial leaders evaluated issues, and a total of some 50 Industrial leaders participated the assessment phase.
The Industrial leaders assessed the issues with regard to Industrial relevance and Suitability for WWNNE using a seven-point Likert-scale.
which the issue was seen to call for RTD cooperation at the European level. 3. 2. 2. 4. Initial screening of research issues.
the Project Team analyzed issues based on the assessment data. For each issue, key statistics were calculated (e g.,
, average evaluation ratings for each criterion, corresponding standard deviations. Within each subarrea issues that tended to receive most support with regard to the three evaluation criteria (i e.
RPM was employed not in a normative sense for making definitive choices among the issues that had been proposed within the research sub-areas;
and for drawing attention to those issues that were deemed particularly interesting in view of this assessment.
In technical terms, RPM Screening is based on an additive preference model where the overall value of an issue is expressed as the weighted sum of its criterion-specific scores.
because the value of a portfolio is obtained by summing the values of its constituent issues.
there were no estimations on how costly potential research projects on the issue might; thus, there were no a priori grounds for assuming that some issue would call for more funding than another.
Therefore, in the model, it was assumed that each issue, if pursued, would consume an equal amount of funding resources.
Within each sub-area, it was envisaged that the identification of the 5 10 most relevant issues would be useful in building the workshop agendas;
consequently, the RPM analysis was carried out by identifying alternative portfolios of 7 research issues that could be regarded as attractive in view of incomplete preference information about the relative importance of the assessment criteria.
defined as the ratio between i) number of non-dominated portfolios the issue belongs to and ii) the number of all non-dominated portfolios.
Thus, if CI of an issue is 1, this issue is contained in all non-dominated portfolios;
and conversely, if its index is 0, it does not belong to any non-dominated portfolios.
In effect, it follows that issues with a CI value of one should be selected, while those with a CI value of 0 should not be selected.
Results for the sub-area 1. 3 are shown in Figure 1 where the labels for the issues are shown on the horizontal axis
the participants in the ensuing workshops (as described below) did not have to delve into all proposed issues;
rather, they could focus on issues that were seemed most interesting in view of the evaluation criteria and the derived CI values.
This, however, did not mean that only issues with high CI value would have been discussed in the workshops:
and the workshop participants were welcome to highlight any other issues that they regarded interesting on any other grounds. 3. 2. 2. 5. Workshops for researchers and industrial leaders.
which helped bring in complementary perspectives to the proposed issues. The director of the TKK group (the third author of this paper) facilitated the workshops, with support from thewoodwisdom-Net Coordinator.
Then, the participants were invited to comment on the proposed solicited issues and their assessments (approx. 1. 5 h),
the workshop participants were asked expressly i) to comment on issues with a high CI value, ii) to highlight issues
which had a low CI value but which seemed nevertheless interesting, iii) to suggest other research topics that were not among the proposed issues (approx. 2. 5 h). After these discussions,
the workshop participants filled a questionnaire form where they were asked to evaluate the relevance of each research sub-area for European collaboration by using a seven-point Likertsccal
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 research sub-area, participants were encouraged to comment on the issues within it (approx. 1 h). Third, for each of the research sub-areas,
Another benefit is that the funding organizations can define the priorities based on a realistic understanding of what issues researchers are keen on pursuing
and how these issues are regarded by the end-users of research results (e g.,, industrial firms. Taken together, these features of structured consultation contribute to a closer alignment between the priorities (as conveyed by calls for proposals) and the interests and competencies of the RTD community.
together with an analysis of how interested the researchers are in working on these issues, may assist in the formation of new collaborative networks.
if the issue is identified indeed as one of the priorities. Information of this kind be can be exploited to facilitate the formation of newcollaborative networks
special issue on technology foresight in press. 494 V. Brummer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.
However, the identification of specific regulatory issues and even solutions cannot be achieved by applying simple indicator-based approaches.
the impacts of standards on central issues and assets of service companies have also been asked for
but more especially with measurement and testing issues, whereas only a small share is involved already in the production of quality and compatibility standards.
Issues are assessed, on which only uncertain and incomplete knowledge exists. It is structured based on a survey of expert groups
the issue of regulation was taken only into account in the large national Delphi exercises in Japan 43,
The relatively small importance of the regulatory framework for the future development of new issues in science and technology compared to other policy instruments is confirmed in the follow-up studies,
but also in the field business regarding e-commerce-related issues. 4 In summary, Delphi exercises focusing on the future of science and technology take the general regulatory framework into account as one kind of obstacle,
The application of the Delphi method to the issue of regulations and standards requires the development of questionnaires,
and marketing issues, have to be involved as well as those ministries responsible for general regulatory issues and the officers in regulatory bodies taking care of the implementation of regulations.
since surveying regulatory issues represents a special challenge. For the development of scenarios on the future role of regulation, information about the various regulatory options has to be collected.
Delphi surveys require the identification of a sufficient number of experts dealing with regulatory issues and being able to assess the future role and types of regulation.
This raises in general no problems for Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years.
Based on the few existing experiences with surveys, it can be concluded that this methodology allows the identification of very specific future regulatory issues.
In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,
which allow the Frontiers network to develop strategies for a number of different issues relevant to particular areas within nanotechnologies for the life sciences.
Which can have unintended consequences as Anthony Giddens 40 points out Merton has provided perhaps the classical discussion of the issue.
and issues that came from interviews and desk research (on socio-technical scenarios in general see Geels 64 and Elzen et al. 65,66).
Another issue is that cell biology is diverse and so for cell-on-a-chip many niche markets will be the key.
Major issues here were agreed in the workshop to relate to the relationship between MNC and start-ups:
and defend any IP issues based on their large resource base. One of the participants gave a case example:
The workshop participants agreed that the attractiveness of this innovation chain would be tempered again by IP issues a large number of companies, distributed IP,
and mobilising and coordinating resources is a key issue. On the other hand, advantages of such an approach are that new innovations will be occurring within the cluster
but 3 and 4 were agreed to be the most plausible ways forward (based on past failures of innovation chains 1 and 2). The participants also raised more general issues
The IP issue can be generalised to many projected nanotechnology innovations where technologies cannot be products in themselves
which can in themselves be turned into innovations. 23 This also a general issue in relation to the current situation of strategic science and application oriented research. 532 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting
Salient issues of the management of socio-technical aspects of this particular innovation chain were highlighted also.
This network level strategy support system is somewhat abstract from specific technological issues, such as cell-on-a-chip;
What are upcoming issues for regulation? The maps can be used to train programme officers/portfolio managers on anticipated issues along respective innovation chains,
enabling some sort of strategic management including decisions whether to deviate from strategies shown or go along with them.
He worked in South africa on the dynamics of social development projects and science-and-technology-in-society issues and at Twente University,
The issue remains that the degree to which modern societies have to deal with uncertainty
and implementation of foresight programmes by adding design and implementation principles to the existing evaluation issues of efficiency,
interdepartmental and interdisciplinary space needed for forward thinking on science-based issues. Impacts were grouped 11 See for example 2, 3, 8, 15 17.
establish fora and exploit the connections needed to keep issues identified as important at the forefront of the national agenda.
and the discussion moved on to analyse broader issues, like knowledge (types and sources of knowledge), knowledge production and use,
The major underlying assumptions for building visions for EU universities should be spelt out before addressing the more detailed issues,
Fourth, cohesion is an issue for (a large, advanced EU member states (given the significant differences among their regions),(b) for the four‘classic'cohesion countries,
i) its main strategic intention/orientation in terms of putting the main emphasis on cohesion (societal issues) 26 The degree, to
Clearly, even a superficial treatment of this issue would be way beyond the scope of this paper. 27 There is no widely accepted definition of competitiveness;
Triad Internal strategy Cohesion (societal issues) Competitiveness(‘multi-speed EU')Successful EU A) Double success: A carefully balanced development strategy of the EU, keeping the‘welfare'elements, too, at an EU level
This is thewell-known issue of having or not a‘federal EU'.(See also two visions of the EUROPOLIS project, coined Federal Europe,
successful regions Research agenda An appropriate balance between societal and techno-economic issues Focus on techno-economic issues;
intense interactions with other players in (regional, national, sectoral, international) innovation systems and with the society Universities do not understand/take on their role in addressing societal issues New activities to promote cohesion among EU regions
'the complexities of societal issues and competitiveness are addressed not; the full potential of multi-disciplinary research is exploited not Awidely used practice at universities across the EU;
particularly relevant for universities to play their societal role by better understanding the close relationships between societal and techno-economic issues,
'‘crosscutting'issues relevant to enhancing competitiveness are addressed not; the complexities of societal issues and competitiveness are addressed not;
the full potential of multi-disciplinary research is exploited not Multi-disciplinary research is pursued in a limited sense:
mainly integrating disciplines relevant for tackling techno-economic (competitiveness) issues (i e. somewhat neglecting societal issues) 34 The likely impacts of further drivers,
not directly related to research activities of universities, are discussed in 21.577 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 touch with reality.
and new issues are now in the centre of analysis, such as knowledge, knowledge production and use; learning, learning capabilities and learning systems;
as well as to consider strategic issues, e g. how to meet the new social and economic requirements; how to take advantage of major technological,
Thus, the issues of multilevel governance should be analysed, and hence the need for a set of structured futures, representing the various levels of governance.
and the editors of this special issue are acknowledged gratefully. References 1 P. A. David, Europe's Universities and Innovation Past, Present and Future, SIEPR Discussion paper No. 06-10,2006. 2 EC, The role of universities in the Europe
He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues. 582 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582
This special issue of TFSC presents a provocative alignment of papers designed to begin the probing of these fundamental questions about the future and future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.
of which this special issue for Technological forecasting and Social Change consists of the selected papers with particular emphasis on methodological aspects of FTA,
thus following the example of the first special issue from the previous edition of the Conference 2. This issue offers the reader a unique opportunity to travel with the editors on a journey of discovery where new approaches to the development of policies for advancing societal
In this way the issue also contributes to an evolving tool bag of diverse and enhanced tools for societally useful global innovation.
To conclude this special issue we welcome the column From My Perspective of the Founder and Editor-In-chief of this journal and one of the key participants of the FTA 2008 Seville Conference, Professor Harold A. Linstone.
Finally, we will also address the issue of sustainability deficits of decisions: how to anticipate and integrate them into the formulation of a long term management strategy for infrastructure development.
We also thank the editors of the special issues and the reviewers for their insightful comments.
, J. Hertin, Foresight futures scenarios, Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic planning Tool, Greener Management International (37 Special issue on Foresighting for Development), 2002, pp. 37 52.27 G
depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise. Technology assessment (TA) has ingredients of both of these approaches
The first issue is reflected in the new VTT organisation and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,
focusing on the most important issues. Opening up a fruitful dialogue among the FTA researchers and professionals facilitates also mutual learning across the FTA and risk assessment communities.
of which the issues are illuminated, and positions these projects according to important foresight design dimensions. o Section 4 paves the way towards a modular and integrative approach by discussing the common and complementary features of risk assessment
In the exploration stage, main issues, trends and drivers as well as key stakeholders'frames are explored. Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues,
trends and drivers influence one another, and synthesising knowledge. Anticipation considers previous analysis and aims at defining possible and/or desired futures.
Futures methodology issues 1. Introduction There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future.
and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.
and related construction of composite indicators 1. Methodological issues need to be addressed transparently prior to the construction and use of Fig. 1. Internal structure of technology barometer. 1179 T. Loikkanen et al./
like the idea of including interactive and mobile media skills to science education curriculum at the elementary level. 3. 3. Synthesizing discussion Each technology barometer consists of concluding discussions of certain topical issues
The selection and interpretations of these issues are made by the representatives of the TEK together with researchers from VTT.
The first extensive societal issue relates to the role of knowledge-intensive work in Finnish society
The future fields are all crosscutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Environmental issues or Information and Communication) and formulated in roadmaps. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author.
In order to address crosscutting issues (objective no. 2 of the whole process a matrix was worked out in
or crosscutting issues. The purpose of the workshop was to discuss what kinds of measures are successful in the implementation of new
How can future issues and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly
or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?
However, this is far from straightforward as foresight outcomes tend to challenge established configurations by pointing to long-term issues that reach across boundaries of scientific disciplines, industrial sectors and departments in industry, research institutes
or if it is more about identifying actors, innovation policy measures or other issues. When this paper is written,
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management, Special issue FTA Seminar 2006,2008, pp. 369 387.19 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
Finally we would like to thank the reviewers and editors of this special issue for their helpful comments on earlier versions of this article.
and framing issues of policy relevance. Moreover, scenario planning can offer a policy risk-free space to visualize,
However only a handful of studies report empirical results on the central issue how scenario use correlates with an organisation's performance 28.
Stimulating wider debates about possible futures and clarifying an issues importance were ranked as the objectives of highest relevance.
Users often value the opportunity to explore contentious issues outside of the usual parameters in a safe space.
and support decision-making include the 5 The Future Analyst Network (FAN-Club) has been established as a permanent network of people dealing with future-related issues in different departments, agencies and the private sector. 1203
requiring the Prime ministers Office to release one report per electoral period addressing a range of long-term issues.
and the issues most amenable to influence. Institutional capacities are treated often superficially in the discussion.
Teresa has worked in environmental policy issues for over 20 years in various countries and for European union Institutions.
The checklist may be grouped under four issues relating to sources of:(i) motivation,(ii) power,(iii) knowledge,
along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products. A number of processes have been designed
these questions characterise trans science 4. These issues are discussed briefly in Box 1 (below) and in greater depth in Loveridge and Street 3. Throughout recent decades it has been presumed that people possess an infinite‘plasticity,
In this sense, the issue of inclusivity is not new. 1. 3. Some challenges to Inclusive foresight Creation of trust between all the parties involved is one of the major requirements of an effective Foresight programme, especially between the‘expert'community and the general public,
or soon afterwards Create policy processes amenable to current and future issues within the characteristics of trans science (Weinberg ibid.)
Academic social research Trade unions Issue groups including the Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, the Intermediate Technology development Group and other similar organisations Grass roots organisations Minority groups, such as women
and was designed to broaden participation through allowing the shape of the study to evolve 2 as participation through the Internet reveals issues of importance.
should be encouraged to do so Issues in focus: 5. Admission of the social influence on the directions taken by science and technology from within and without the scientific and technology community 6. Greater attention to the question of desirability,
Two issues emerge from inclusivity: 1. The dynamic properties of the VALS 1 typology itself.
Consequently, the circumstances prevailing at the time of a Foresight study can influence the outcome in ways that remain unknown. 2. Seeking opinions from a mixture of people from so many different levels in the typology will introduce new issues to be resolved to retain credibility between all the participants.
Methodological issues The behavioural aspects of inclusivity also have implications for the methods used in Foresight:
Ulrich 17 19 and more recently Dempster in her description of sympoiesis 20 extended systems thinking to provide a better understanding of the issues associated with determining system boundaries and the roles of values associated with the implementation and measurement of practical results.
technological feasibility and artifact desirability of a nano artifact. 1218 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 participation in Foresight relating to these issues.
earlier egocentricity fades, to include other people and many social issues. Direct experience and vigorous involvement are desired strongly in all their activities.
to society as a whole sometimes to include global issues, leading to a profound sense of responsibility; support conservation, environmentalism and the consumer movement, often becoming impassioned and knowledgeable activists about the world as they see it.
Mature psychologically, they are able to see the many sides of an issue and lead it if necessary or equally easily to play a secondary role
usually possess a deep sense of the fittingness of things, a rare sense of judgement, that leads to self-assurance, self-actualisation, self-expression and a keen awareness of issues and sentiments, often with a world perspective.
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011