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Scenario planning; Neo-Schumpeterian economics; Evolutionary economics; Social studies of technology; Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

At the end of a recent foresight and scenario development process in Austria, dealing with scenarios and options for establishing production consumption chains based on renewable resources,

the participants were asked for an assessment of the process and whether it had been useful for them to participate.

or the audience and the purpose addressed. 2 Common to many foresight exercises is the development of either different scenarios,

when aiming at seemingly desirable scenarios? It is known commonly that socio-technical change is tied to a wide range of uncertainties

where workshops and expert panels are taken as the main source of information for constructing scenarios.

Typically scenarios of some kind (s) play a role in this mapping. Finally a solution, i e. a single or, more typically,

i e. in general terms they are beneficial in all scenarios, but their specific shape depends on the conditions of the respective scenario.

In fact, many technologies tend to have a double-edged character, because they can be beneficial under certain circumstances and detrimental under others.

and telecommunication technologies, are expected to have a very positive impact within an optimistic information society scenario. The same technology,

however, can be abused in a‘big brother'type of scenario when used for invading the privacy sphere of individuals.

Typically a handful of alternative structures a type of visionary scenarios are constructed and then tested against, e g.,

, external scenarios of some type. In a one-shot exercise, the idea is to find the most robust such structure,

Another experience that led the way towards Adaptive foresight was the use of scenario methodologies in the first Swedish National foresight exercise. 15 Based on these experiences

the alternative preferred in AF is to develop a set of multifaceted framework scenarios (also known as context or external scenarios.

The reason for this preference is that such scenarios can, in a way useful also for non-experts in innovation research, convey the notion that the complex innovation system logic discussed above may develop over time in alternative, qualitatively different, ways.

In order to be useful a set of scenarios should be: Relevant with regard to current strategic issues. Even though scenarios depict future developments it is current policy-making they shall inform.

Plausible in the sense that they start from (aspects of) the current situation and develop in ways consistent with established knowledge.

each scenario should present interesting strategic issues, and the whole set of scenarios should represent the full range of most salient such issues as well as possible (for tractability the number of framework scenarios is held normally at just three or four).

Ideally all scenarios should present an interesting mix of challenges, rather than being good or bad. 27 An external drivers'workshop is performed in a structured brainstorming format where participants first get to upload their ideas on drivers.

This can be done in a verbal dialogue where the facilitator (s) in a tour de table format asks each participant at a time to enter a new idea,

Scenario skeletons can then be derived by clustering such storylines based on consistency the so-called inductive approach. The deductive alternative is to analyse systematically the scenario space spanned by the most prioritised uncertain drivers.

This should be done in a small group, not as a plenary exercise. It will then typically turn out that some such variable combinations are unlikely (i e. more or less inconsistent),

others hard to distinguish from other scenario candidates and therefore not so useful. It is also useful to start 27 These criteria for good framework scenarios are developed based on a set of criteria often used in the Shell/GBN tradition

specification of exploratory framework scenarios In either of the cases at the end of Phase 2, the scenario ideas need much additional development.

Often the scenario ideas are developed further at the initial workshop in syndicate work where each group takes care of one embryonic scenario.

starting to specify each scenario in terms of key drivers and other descriptors of relevance to the focal issue.

However, the work of scenario specification must always be continued back-office after the workshop. A part of this work is to sharpen the driving logic of each scenario and the contrasts in this regard within the whole scenario set.

This is the key to making the scenarios challenging. Often it is also necessary to further research the key scenario variables and their relationships through literature study and expert interviews.

This is to ascertain plausibility. This work may also be supported usefully by (normally simple) simulation models.

It is not uncommon that the scenario ideas derived at the workshop have to be modified considerably at this stage,

but it is important to do so only for good and explainable reasons in order to ensure the ownership of the scenarios by the participants of the process. 3. 2. 5. Phase 4:

formulation of collective visions and objectives The normative dimension can also be addressed usefully at the initial workshop.

This discussion can be held already before the initial scenario work (Phase 2) or informed by the scenario ideas developed in that phase.

The latter is preferred when workshop participants are feared to have a (too) high degree of initial consensus (e g.,

then multiple scenarios can help create useful variety. A variant of the structured brainstorming format described under Phase 2 could be used also here.

which alternative policies are to be assessed against the exploratory scenarios. It is important to consider this in Phase 3,

making sure that the scenarios can answer the right questions. The visions and objectives are also an important input to Phases 5 and 6. 3. 2. 6. Phase 5:

identification of challenges associated with each framework scenario The challenges opportunities and threats are what connect the framework scenarios with the addressee's area of responsibility.

based on the scenario ideas developed in Phase 2 (and perhaps the beginnings of Phase 3). It should then be developed further in conjunction with the back-office work in Phase 3,

But a type of backcasting more distinctive for AF is to identify a best possible variant of each framework scenario

Moreover, by staging the pathways leading to the realisation of different scenarios it is possible to identify needs for action

this stagewise backcasting of the scenario pathways allows also discussing the appropriate timing of policy and other measures,

By developing consistent pathways, the backcasting exercise represents a second level of testing the credibility of a scenario.

in order to capture the full range of aspects that can potentially come into play in the course of a scenario pathway,

identification of collective strategies (portfolio analysis) So far, individual scenarios have been developed, refined and analysed. Each of the scenarios and pathways can be characterised in terms of technologies

and policies that have been realised. The options delivered by the scenarios have also been assessed with respect to our focal issue.

From today's perspective, portfolio analysis then looks across the scenarios in order to assess and select those technology options

and corresponding policies that promise to be either robust or adaptive (or both). In other words, robust options are fairly easy to identify

because they are assessed positively in all or most scenarios. Adaptive options have been identified as part of Phase 6

when possibilities are sought to move the basic scenario in a more desirable direction. Adaptive options are

or for exploiting specific opportunities in a single scenario. These kinds of insights should then serve as an input for today's policy-makers to prioritise, for instance, emerging technologies and design corresponding policies.

In practice, processes of scenario developments and portfolio analysis will hardly be conducted on a continuous basis but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.

it strengthens the rational basis of decision-making by capturing often implicit assumptions, expectations and underlying values about the future explicitly in different scenario images and corresponding pathways;

as reflected in the notion of adaptive elements in strategies and path-dependence in the context of scenario development;

it supports strategic thinking about portfolios of options across different scenarios and during different phases of the policy cycle.

what they term deep uncertainty represented by very large scenario sets, sometimes over periods of hundreds of years 50.

A. Eriksson, Scenario-based methodologies for strategy development and management of change, in: M.-O. Olsson, G. Sjöstedt (Eds.

2000.33 E. A. Eriksson, M. Stenström, Scenarier för Teknisk Framsyn Scenarios for the Swedish Technology foresight, Swedish Technology foresight Report, Stockholm, 1999.34 P. Wagner

Paper presented at the 10th DRUID conference, DRUID, Aalborg Copenhagen, 2005.47 K. Van der Heijden, Scenarios, The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1996.48

IST success scenario and policy priorities, FISTERA Research report, PREST, Manchester, 2005.50 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C. Bankes, Shaping The next

governance, Technikfolgenabschätzung Theorie und Praxis 12 (2)( 2003) 11 20.13 S. Kuhlmann, J. Edler, Scenarios of technology and innovation policies in Europe:

Foresight methodologies including scenario, Delphi and even simulation approaches are rather costly and time-consuming, involving numerous experts.

For the development of scenarios on the future role of regulation, information about the various regulatory options has to be collected.

For each scenario, the respective relevance and impacts of the selected regulation have to be determined.

the scenario technique is an appropriate methodology, since often the regulatory option ranges between massive interventions in the market and doing nothing in a liberal laissez-faire policy style.

such as with‘anticipatory tools'(foresight exercises, bibliometric analyses, scenario planning, etc); and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty

To this end, we used socio-technical scenarios to house some of the more detailed path dynamics

and desk research (on socio-technical scenarios in general see Geels 64 and Elzen et al. 65,66).

These scenarios in themselves contained reliable information on the current situation and selected prospective chronologies of innovations in cell-on-a-chip (rather than possible choices to go for.

The idea of a generic platform is contended still (this contention was included in one of the three socio-technical scenarios)

Through analysis of socio-technical scenarios, emerging paths and emerging irreversibilities in the field of research can be anticipated

The workshop participants accepted our diagnosis given in MPM-1 and scenarios as well as the MPM-2 tool as relevant.

Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning

64 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios and reflexive anticipation: Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in:

Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar, 2002, pp. 355 381.65 B. Elzen, P. S. Hofman, F. W. Geels, Sociotechnical scenarios (STSC) A new

. Green, Sociotechnical scenarios as a tool for transition policy: an example from the traffic and transport domain, in:

thus facilitating the design of several plans for dealing with the consequences of different scenarios should they materialise.

foresight also facilitates the adoption of a holistic approach in terms of identifying possible impacts within and among different scenarios.

it is of crucial importance to underpin the proposed new round of reforms by thorough and systematic prospective analyses, e g. by developing‘futures'(‘visions'or‘scenarios').

These visions offer a description of future states in 2020 2025 rather than fully fledged or path scenarios

In a radical scenario, not to be discussed here, the loss of most/all EU policy-making power to national, regional,

For a largely similar scenario, called Swiss Europe, see 18.29 Emerging countries, e g. China and India, might also become important competitors,

Policy 30 (6)( 2001) 891 903.20 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Res.

Volkery and Ribeiro address in their paper, Scenario planning in public policy: understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, the effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making.

Scenario planning still is executed often in a rather ad hoc and isolated manner and is geared mostly towards indirect decision support such as agenda-setting

and issue framing. The authors analyze the role of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties

and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests. The paper by Loveridge and Saritas:

Co-evolutionary Scenarios: An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology, a research project exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements.

This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution.

Additionally, strategic options were assessed in relation to specific scenarios 21. Whereas foresight has often been run in participatory settings in the past,

1) Exploratory context scenarios analyze a set of possible future framework conditions relevant for organizations, regions or communities.

These explorative external scenarios 23 typically span a wide range of possible developments of context factors that are beyond the control of the relevant actors.

The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.

In land-use planning, Xiang and Clarke 29 speak of learning scenarios as vehicles for better specifying preferences for specific ends.

Context scenarios are especially important in the case of infrastructures as there is a high interdependence between the long term oriented infrastructure

and its regional context 30.2) Other applications of scenario planning are framed as decision support instruments for the assessment of strategic options:

Xiang and Clarke 29 call them decision scenarios with a focus on means. In corporate contexts, innovation oriented foresight focuses on long term product development strategies or market prospects.

p. 6. Potential solutions have to be reflected critically against the broad background of context scenarios

and specific trade-offs must be identified 32,33. 3) The outcome of an assessment of options in the context of different scenarios still depends on the type

The variation of interests and in parallel potential conflicts increases with the consideration of political side effects of more radical solutions 36 as well as with different political and societal situations in context scenarios.

Foresight and scenario planning have been applied to infrastructure sectors in different forms. As a benchmark, we will briefly review typical applications in the field of transportation as this represents the most widely addressed empirical application case.

Land use transportation scenario planning projects have been carried out since the late 1980s in the US 37. In particular metropolitan transportation has moved from a supply-side focus siting facilities to meet projected demands toward a more 1152 E. Störmer et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 integrated system-and demand-management perspective 38, p. 4. Some scenario projects show a variety of different land use

or transport technology scenarios without explicitly assessing adequate strategies 39 43. Others include the assessment of options

A meta-analysis of 80 scenario processes in the U s. found that these processes were started with a clear idea of the desired results

a widening of participation in the assessment phase is necessary to include local knowledge for the establishment of regional specific scenarios 6 as well as for multi perspective assessment of options.

The participants select three to four scenario cores from the analysis of regional and regulatory developments.

They construct the context scenarios for the year 2030+discursively by describing coherent and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64.

Secondly, the core team systematically evaluates the impacts of these context conditions on the infrastructure system relative to an encompassing list of performance goals.

The evaluation of options is carried first out by the core team applying the different criteria in a balanced way for each scenario.

the perspectives of relevant stakeholder groups are taken into Account for each scenario, participants adopt roles of different future stakeholder groups representing either future citizens

In the end, a list of assessments will be available for each option under each scenario and evaluated according to the preferences of each considered interest group. 3. 2. Exploring the landscape of trade-offs These results may then be analyzed via different perspectives.

The first one relates social preference for each option in each scenario to its potential social conflict level (see Fig. 2). For simplicity's sake,

we chose to average the ordinal preference values that the different interest groups attributed to each option in each scenario as an indicator.

if dependency on context conditions is considered which is represented graphically by connecting the performance scores of a specific option under different scenarios by a polygon (see Fig. 2). Size

no attention is given to unequal power relations between the stakeholder groups or different possibilities of realization for each scenario.

In the first workshop, the stakeholders elaborated four alternative scenarios describing context conditions in the year 2030+based on the set of influencing factors

II) The powerful region scenario with effective regional collaboration and secure employment in industry and farming.

In this scenario there is only little migration within a strong middleclass segment and local industry and farmers.

III) The top/flop scenario describes a downturn of industrial activity in the region. Inhabitants of peripheral areas leave the region

IV) The downturn of the Kiesental scenario is characterized by job loss and emigration. The situation gets worse with increased pressures from climate change like floods and droughts.

The different scenarios were analyzed then in order to determine their sustainability challenges. For example the downturn scenario showed an increase of the environmental impacts of untreated wastewater overflows during heavy rain events.

Health might therefore be threatened when hygienic standards declined in a dire economic context. Cost minimization would receive a high priority

i) The core team assessed the options'generic strengths and weaknesses in reaching sustainability goals in a well balanced way for each of the different scenarios.

For instance in the downturn scenario, citizens were characterized as being rather overaged, modest, conservative, and attached to their region,

Citizens in the downturn scenario, for instance, claimed that onsite treatment represented the most desirable solution because maintenance costs would be low

Strengths include the replacement of the cost intensive sewer network and the flexibility of the system, especially under downturn and top/flop scenarios.

In the downturn scenario, assessment results were rather antagonistic. In the high quality of life and the powerful region scenario, both groups ranked the solution as rather problematic or not desirable.

In the top/flop however both groups saw it as a rather positive solution. The option umbrella organization was perceived generally as being beneficial

Especially in the downturn scenario, this option seemed to lead to high organizational complexity with insufficient benefits.

The merger option was favored strongly by industry and in two scenarios also by the citizens.

Citizens in the powerful region scenario, however, criticized the limited possibility for participation and in the top/flop scenario they were afraid of a disconnection of peripheral areas.

A comparison of the stakeholders'assessment with the sustainability evaluation of the core team offers insight into the sustainability deficits that a politically negotiated solution would entail (see Fig. 5)

In the downturn scenario, the core team assessed onsite treatment as the best solution due to savings in the sewerage network,

In the case of the high quality of life scenario, the possibility to recycle water was very important from an overall point of view,

We developed a specific methodological layout of a strategic planning process the Regional infrastructure foresight method that builds on a combination of foresight approaches that focus on exploratory context scenarios, option assessment and multiple perspectives.

Nevertheless, in the final evaluation of the process, they strongly welcomed the opportunity to conjointly develop the scenarios

For instance, region specific context scenarios could be created commonly in a first step, while sector specific options are developed separately in a second step

Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.21 J. F. Coates, Scenario planning from my perspective, Technol. Forecast.

alternative futures as a case study, Futures 18 (5)( 1986) 658 670.23 L. Börjeson, M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types

towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008

combining scenario planning with decision analysis, J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 8 (1999) 311 321.28 M. P. e Cunha, P. Palma, N. G. da Costa, Fear of foresight:

knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (8)( 2006) 942 955.29 W. Xiang, K c. Clarke, The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Environ.

)( 2007) 338 348.37 K. Bartholomew, Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality, Transportation 34 (2007) 397 412.38 C. Zegras, J. Sussman, C. Conklin, Scenario planning for strategic regional transportation planning, J. Urban Plann.

Dev. Asce 130 (1)( 2004) 2 13.39 Y. Shiftan, S. Kaplan, S. Hakkert, Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system, Transport.

Res. Part D-Transport. Environ. 8 (5)( 2003) 323 342.40 K. Chatterjee, A. Gordon, Planning for an unpredictable future:

an integrated scenario analysis, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73 (6)( 2006) 607 629.1161 E. Störmer et al./

an application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 70 (4)( 2003) 359 384.54 O. Renn, Participatory processes for designing environmental policies, Land use Policy 23 (1)( 2006) 34 43.55 B. Truffer, Wissensintegration

A. Fink, O. Schlake, Scenario management: an approach to develop future potentials, Technol. Forecast. Soc.

typically reported as scenarios, visions, roadmaps and action recommendations. The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years,

In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.

for instance, defining the scenario methods the most creative and literature review evidence based, while future workshops are interactive and expert panels more for addressing expert opinions.

scenario building and Delphi method may serve the prognosis phase and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42.

Possible and potential futures are examined by applying, for instance, scenario, backcasting or roadmapping methods. Among other methods and practices in the field are constructive technology assessment

A systematic risk analysis typically starts, after the data gathering, with the identification of hazards and the associated hazardous scenarios according to a specific procedure defined by the selected risk analysis method.

If any hazardous scenarios are considered to result in serious consequences, they may be investigated further by applying a consequence analysis. A consequence analysis may consist of dispersion models

Risk is defined as the combination of probability (frequency) and consequence of a certain scenario. Relevant probability data is seldom available

and scenario methods in a proactive risk assessment of telecommunication and electric power infrastructures was conducted in an EU funded project Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS,

The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.

economics and technology, applying big amount of creative brainstorming approaches ending to two potential scenarios.

The results of the process showed that the created scenarios were too generic to apply the traditional (process safety) risk assessment methods

This kind of scenarios cannot sufficiently be analysed by the currently available risk assessment methods, because these methods require more detailed knowledge of the target to be analysed:

The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,

Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.

Scientific knowledge concerning natural changes constitutes different scenarios of the future and social knowledge can also be formulated into various scenarios depicting the potential futures.

A strategy to handle this multiplicity requires selection. In the context of the Nordic hydropower production and distribution, for instance, the most threatening scenarios are selected for the risk estimation and evaluation process.

Such scenarios may, for instance, concern the increased precipitation and flooding, which have political, ecological, social, technological and economical effects in society. 3. 4. Positioning the projects according to some important dimensions Könnölä et al.

forthcoming) propose a taxonomy of foresight activities at a contract research organisation like VTT (see the taxonomy framework in Fig. 4). The axes of the taxonomy are described in the Box 1. According to Könnölä et al. 2 most of the VTT's foresight activities position themselves to the consensual

In IRRIIS project the results show that risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing loosely constructed scenarios.

The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail. It was noticed also that both processes

For instance, scenario analysis may be just a little part of the whole foresight process and, therefore, conducting risk assessment only to the produced scenarios may be difficult.

Another option may be to keep the risk assessment approach in the process during the whole foresight exercise.

Scenarios should be as accurate as possible in order to be able to be processed by risk analysis techniques.

Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated. How case studies contributed to risk management methodology? The results show that the integration of proactive risk assessment

and scenario methods is challenging. The study showed that risk management is not just about identifying and assessing risks,

Scenario building was based on large and vague trend analysis. The innovation process was seen as a whole. No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al./

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

Guideline Scenarios General Summary, 2004 http://www. futuribles. com/pdf/Strategicenvironment. pdf. Read 28th 2009.

the use of large numbers of computer generated scenarios to optimize policy choices 2, and the creation of credible indices of progress across countries, companies and groups with common assumptions to measure progress. 3. Reducing the domain of the unknowable It is hard to imagine the consequences of a new breakthrough before it occurs.

Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty,