scenario planning

Scenario planning

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Scenario planning; Neo-Schumpeterian economics; Evolutionary economics; Social studies of technology; Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

such as with‘anticipatory tools'(foresight exercises, bibliometric analyses, scenario planning, etc); and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty

Volkery and Ribeiro address in their paper, Scenario planning in public policy: understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, the effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making.

Scenario planning still is executed often in a rather ad hoc and isolated manner and is geared mostly towards indirect decision support such as agenda-setting

and issue framing. The authors analyze the role of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties

and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests. The paper by Loveridge and Saritas:

and its regional context 30.2) Other applications of scenario planning are framed as decision support instruments for the assessment of strategic options:

Foresight and scenario planning have been applied to infrastructure sectors in different forms. As a benchmark, we will briefly review typical applications in the field of transportation as this represents the most widely addressed empirical application case.

Land use transportation scenario planning projects have been carried out since the late 1980s in the US 37. In particular metropolitan transportation has moved from a supply-side focus siting facilities to meet projected demands toward a more 1152 E. Störmer et al./

Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.21 J. F. Coates, Scenario planning from my perspective, Technol. Forecast.

combining scenario planning with decision analysis, J. Multi-Criteria Decis. Anal. 8 (1999) 311 321.28 M. P. e Cunha, P. Palma, N. G. da Costa, Fear of foresight:

)( 2007) 338 348.37 K. Bartholomew, Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality, Transportation 34 (2007) 397 412.38 C. Zegras, J. Sussman, C. Conklin, Scenario planning for strategic regional transportation planning, J. Urban Plann.

Dev. Asce 130 (1)( 2004) 2 13.39 Y. Shiftan, S. Kaplan, S. Hakkert, Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system, Transport.

Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050

Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

less attention has been paid to studying the use, impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making. This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature

our preliminary findings highlight that scenario planning still is executed often in a rather ad hoc and isolated manner

but the potential of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized.

Scenario planning Decision support Political and institutional context Evaluation 1. Introduction Policy-makers and business leaders often face strategic decisions with uncertain future outcomes.

Scenario planning has been developed as a method to represent and deal with such deep uncertainties. Over the recent decades, it has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.

& Social Change Methodological approaches to scenario planning are covered well in the academic literature. Their use and impacts in the realm of public policy is treated,

or several aspects of using scenario planning 2. This article merges the findings from this review with the results from a workshop with environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers.

Our analysis is informed predominantly by a focus on scenario planning in environmental policy and other environmental relevant policy fields.

We understand scenario planning broadly as the aim to identify a range of new threats and opportunities that arise across a set of plausible alternative scenarios,

and the institutional embedding of scenario planning with greater care than it has been done so far. Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty requires not only rigorous analysis. Even well-constructed,

and sketches a first analysis of success factors and barriers to scenario planning in public policy. Section 5 discusses the main findings

and Section 6 synthesizes implications for the future development of the evaluative scenario literature. 2. Functions of scenario planning in the policy-making process The scenario planning literature highlights a wide range of decision support functions 8,

9. Ideally, scenario planning helps policy-makers making better sense of changes in their external environment, spotting early warning signals and refining perceptions of existing or emerging problems and corresponding problem-solving strategies 10.

Moreover, scenario planning helps surfacing and managing conflicts between diverging societal interests and values and helps finding common ground for future action,

Participatory scenario planning also helps mobilizing action by different public and private actors. In the longer run, it can trigger cultural change in the way institutions

Scenario planning needs to be rooted in a sufficient understanding of the milieu in which political decisions are made.

This diversity requires sound governance of scenario planning, as different formats might be necessary to conform to diverging information needs and context conditions.

The different functions of scenario planning can be distinguished into indirect and direct forms of scenario-based decision support (17,

These direct forms of scenario planning require delivery of more targeted information and insights on the candidate policies or strategies in questions, eliminating less favorable alternative options and focusing on the preferable ones.

1. How is used scenario planning: is geared it more towards indirect forms of decision support or more geared towards direct forms of decision support,

How can those in charge of setting up a scenario planning exercise in public policy effectively proceed? Which institutional arrangements might be beneficial to the purposes of scenario planning and

which capacities need organisations in the public sector develop? These questions guided our review of the available literature 2

we limited ourselves mainly to literature on scenario planning, because scenarios provide a potentially very attractive approach to addressing uncertainty and complexity.

Furthermore, the focus of our review was on literature that explicitly attempts to evaluate scenario planning approaches,

and weaknesses of several different exercises and assessments of the impacts scenario planning approaches can have on decision-making processes Fig. 1. Forms of scenario-based decision support. 1200 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting

when using scenario planning. 3. Synthesizing the available evaluative scenario literature 3. 1. Types of evaluative scenario studies The literature attempting to assess the impacts of scenarios employs different types of evaluative methods.

or are difficult to single out from the complexity of influence factors. 3. 2. Impacts of scenario planning The few studies that attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of scenarios find them useful 29,30.

This has been confirmed by studies that gather data on individual participants in a scenario planning project 20.

Treatment of surprise and discontinuities A reason often quoted for using scenario planning as a decision support tool is its ability to reduce overconfidence about the future 35.

In particular, scenario planning was considered less relevant and less successful in appraising the robustness of options for future action.

Scenario planning can easily clash with established routines of political decision-making which are informed by policy path-dependencies.

scenario planning follows a rather linear, rational logic of identifying a problem structure, shaping problem solutions and determining the solution that works best across a range of alternative futures.

Workshop participants also acknowledged the general difficulties of evaluating impacts of scenario planning. However, there was a common agreement among workshop participants that the potential of scenario planning is currently underutilized in dayttoday policy-making.

Apparently, a rather ad hoc use is still prevalent. Scenario planning and futures thinking in more general terms,

was described to often be isolated a rather activity. 4. 2. Factors determining success Institutional capacity-building was deemed an important requirement for making overall progress.

Discussions pointed to recent approaches to strengthen capacities for scenario planning and foresight within governments. Examples include:

On the other hand, the strategy unit in the Department for Agriculture in The netherlands is an example for an actor in charge of long-term sectoral analysis. A number of other procedural options can be utilized to strengthen the role of scenario planning.

ex-post or midterm policy evaluation could make long-term scenario planning become a more integrated component of the policy cycle.

where scenario planning has been part of developing Scotland's 2nd National Planning Framework (NPF), setting out the range of strategic alternatives that were considered as part of the early development of the NPF,

As a consequence, those in charge of scenario planning in public policy, but also those trying to evaluate ongoing practice,

Scenario planning is geared more towards indirect forms of decision support in the early phases of the policy cycle,

however, towards getting scenario planning more fully incorporated into processes of policy design, choice and implementation. While many studies report on individual learning effects, there is a larger gap

when it comes to understanding the impacts of scenario planning on overall organisational performance. The literature does not report too many differences between public and private sector applications.

which is indeed a key aspiration of scenario planning. In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners,

Contradictions between product and process functions of scenario planning might aggravate this confusion. Does this assessment mean that future efforts should concentrate rather on indirect forms of scenario-based decision support,

and choice of policies remains a litmus test for the relevance of scenario planning. Current conditions in many governments and public administrations constrain the ability to effectively pursue direct forms of scenario-based decision support.

when the governance conditions for scenario planning are developed not rightfully. The struggle of balancing requests for open-minded

Scenario planning needs to conform to a variety of information demands, conflict constellations and diverging concerns for scientific credibility, legitimacy and relevance, both within and outside government and public administration.

Notwithstanding the context dependency of scenario planning, more and more scholars argue that effective scenario planning therefore needs procedural stability in addition to flexibility.

Creating the right incentives for policy-makers to engage in scenario planning gain trust into the process

to undertake scenario planning regularly and report on it, for example through submitting yearly or multi-annual foresight reports.

and weaknesses of different institutional arrangements. 6. Conclusions There is no uniform experience of using scenario planning,

Notwithstanding the context dependency of scenario planning two key conclusions can be drawn from our analysis for further developing the evaluative scenario literature.

and to which effect scenario planning is used and how it can deliver to its promises. The second conclusion concerns the study of institutional arrangements that are put in place to make scenario planning work.

In this paper we reported findings from a scoping phase of a project that in its following phases will hopefully contribute to filling this gap.

If and how probabilistic information should be used with scenario planning in public policy would be another concern.

While the ability of a scenario planning exercise to deal with discontinuities and surprise factors is influenced by methodological design aspects,

There are sufficient examples to suggest that scenario planning is an appropriate tool in the right circumstances

however, modesty is required about the claims made on behalf of scenario planning. References 1 Wavfrify, The role of futures thinking in government:

Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 767 777.21 Y. Garb, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Scenarios in society

Information and Influence, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2006.23 J. Oglivy, E. Smith, Mapping public and private scenario planning:

C. Phelps, S. C. Kapsalis, Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies, J. Bus. Res. 51 (2001) 223 232.29 J. C. Glenn, T. J. Gordon, Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures research

His research interests are integrated environmental assessments, long-term policy analysis and institutional arrangements for effective scenario planning. He has authored

such as scenario planning. 4 In foresight literature visioning is part of a more complex process, involving not only the creation of a desired future picture,

4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of

scenario planning as a strategic management tool. London: Economica. Grin, J.,F. Felix, and B. Bos. 2004.

when for purposes of scenario planning there is an attempt to define the key drivers or those having both great uncertainty and potentially high impact.

or apply them (as we have seen with scenario planning) with little comprehension of their essential components.

the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,

Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report

the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,

Keywords Law, Future-oriented analysis, Foresight, Scenario planning, Modelling, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Future and Law 1 are two words that are rarely found in the same phrase.

Delphi studies and scenario planning. In the following section, I shall briefly explain how each of these tools were used in this particular research project.

Scenario planning law scenarios for 2030. Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted,

scenario planning. This was, in fact, the strategy tool chosen by the project to reflect on alternative futures for law and legal systems.

Scenario planning constitutes one of the most common FTA METHODS used in future studies 10, as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future,

Unlike other disciplines, such as economics and business science, scenario planning is not very common In law. This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind,

The Law of the Future project embraced scenario planning in a very distinctive manner. The idea was not to describe what the world will look like,

and the future consequences that a particular piece of legislation would address (preferably through the support of scenario planning and/or the use of modelling analysis). In order words,

scenario planning, backcasting, modelling systems and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.

In this context, the greatest virtue of the scenario planning technique is not to predict how the future may look like,

Through the use of scenario planning techniques, the future leaves the realm of the unknown and the impossible, transiting to the domain of the Possible future,

In procedural terms, scenario planning at the meta-level conceptualises the future as an open question, advancing then various possible answers and solutions.

Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.

Furthermore, the combination of scenario planning with other FTA instruments and methods such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law.

scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.

The alternative set of visions provided by scenario planning can be used to formulate and simulate different data-models of the future world.

The combination between these tools (scenario planning, modelling techniques and simulation platforms), as we saw in the Futurict case study,

reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,

However, strategic foresight had uneven success. Rigby (2001) found that only 21.5%of North american executives used scenario planning in 1999, approximately 50%fewer than in 1994.

VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 17 Loveridge, D. 1999),‘Foresight and Delphi processes as information sources for scenario planning'',Ideas In progress Paper No. 11, Policy

Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,

Change 71 (2004) 287 303.18 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, Scenario planning in public policy: understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, Technol.

, E. A. Eriksson, T. Malmér, B. A. Mölleryd, Foresight in Nordic innovation systems, Nordic Innovation Centre, Oslo, 2007.7 T. J. Chermack, Studying scenario planning:

and likely scenario, Futures 22 (1990) 730 739.20 M. Lindgren, H. Bandhold, Scenario planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy, Palgrave Macmillan, New york, 2003.21 M. E. Porter, Competitive advantage, Free Press, New york, 1985.22 G. Ringland, The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technol.

Urban Plan. 47 (2000) 65 77.52 P. J. H. Schoemaker, Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking, Sloan Manag.

Ansoff Today, Futures 44 (2012) 198 205.32 B. Ralston, W. Ralston, The Scenario planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int

and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were built then.

a face-to-face workshop for scenario planning was organized. Nano Bio Info Nanobiosystem (e g.,, nanostructured drugs) Nano-Informatics (e g.,

I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention

The scope and focus were developed further into the context of the future by scenario planning, in

Studies, scenario planning, workshops, and electronic tools, among other tools, are applied in order to revise and transform mind-sets,

The timeline tool was used also as an alternative for scenario planning. The guidelines used in the process include:.

Godet, M. 2001) Creating Futures Scenario planning as a Strategic management Tool. Washington: Economica. Habegger, B. 2010)‘ Strategic foresight in public policy:

Miles, I. 2005)‘ Scenario planning',in UNIDO Technology foresight Manual, Vol. 1, pp. 168 93. Vienna: UNIDO.

Arguably, the growing interest in horizon scanning and further on the apparently greater empirical reliance of horizon scanning over scenario planning reflect the increasing complexity of modern societies which are shaped continuuall by so many uncertainties especially in the social and political spheres.