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This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature
what we call the evaluative scenario literature, introducing a pool of 52 literature pieces that deal with one
and leading questions for the analysis. Section 3 synthesizes the findings from the review of evaluative scenario literature.
and Section 6 synthesizes implications for the future development of the evaluative scenario literature. 2. Functions of scenario planning in the policy-making process The scenario planning literature highlights a wide range of decision support functions 8,
A narrow focus on evaluative scenario literature was kept, but the aim was to be inclusive with regard to what was included under this heading.
when using scenario planning. 3. Synthesizing the available evaluative scenario literature 3. 1. Types of evaluative scenario studies The literature attempting to assess the impacts of scenarios employs different types of evaluative methods.
Discussion of findings The evaluative scenario literature remains nascent, making it difficult to come to an elaborated discussion.
Notwithstanding the context dependency of scenario planning two key conclusions can be drawn from our analysis for further developing the evaluative scenario literature.
The evaluative scenario literature should improve alongside these lines. Many public sector applications may require a more systematic connection between scenarios
A Review Of Evaluative Scenario literature, Technical Report 3/2009, Copenhagen, EEA, 2009.3 R. J. Lempert, S. Hoorens, M. Hallsworth, T. Ling, Looking
A Review Of Evaluative Scenario literature, RAND WR-564-EEA, 2008.4 D. Mercer, Robust strategies in a day, Manage.
and underlying theoretical premises 7. While the scenario literature makes explicit the methodological differences and similarities of various approaches,
a review of evaluative scenario literature, in: EEA Technical Report/No 3/2009,2009. 7 M. B. A. van Asselt, A. Faas, F. van der Molen, S. A. Veenman, Uit zicht.
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