scenario approach

Scenario approach

Different scenario (20)
Exploratory scenario (17)
External scenario (4)
Plausible scenario (10)
Scenario (1255)
Scenario analysis (53)
Scenario approach (18)
Scenario axis (4)
Scenario building (38)
Scenario development (26)
Scenario exercise (29)
Scenario ideas (5)
Scenario literature (14)
Scenario method (11)
Scenario planning (123)
Sociotechnical scenario (6)
Traditional scenario (3)

another study suggests that standard scenario approaches tend to systematically exclude surprising or paradoxical developments as inconsistent or logical impossible.

In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.

The co-evolutionary scenario approach is a contribution to the growing field of socio-technical scenarios 3. Other members of the family include regime transition scenarios14,

Policy makers in public sector planning are interested often more in the scenario approach, in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks.

Four scenarios were constructed by looking back to the present from the future state of 2050 The main purpose in using the scenario approach was not to predict

The main purpose in using the scenario approach is not to predict but to construct several different futures

The preordained backcasting scenario approach was notable in this foresight process in two senses: 1. by their nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target orientated),

as a result of the scenario approach which provided concise narratives of long term futures with one robust national goal:

Mietzner, D. and Reger, G. 2005),‘Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 220-39.

Peter Schwartz and many others 8. Since then, scenario approaches have continued to evolve and their use seems to be increasing again 18,47, 48.

As acknowledged in the previous sections (see also Tables 2 and 3), cross-fertilization between scenario approaches and techniques, such as framing boundaries, roadmapping,

Confronted with totally new and unanticipated situations, the scenario approaches, as commonly practiced, tend to exclude such patterns as inconsistent 19.

and diverse scenario approaches might help in addressing structural transformation. Further methodological research in this direction is required.

which is analysed then typically through scenario approaches. The main exception to this anchorage in the mainstream has been the emergence of horizonscanning where in the face of uncertainty the goal is to uncover the Rumsfeldian‘unknown unknowns'2

and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.

a scenario approach that captures multiple futures was embraced. The exercise was led by ICSU's Committee on Scientific Planning

a scenario approach was preferred from the outset, allowing for exploration of possible futures and for articulation of a visionary‘success scenario'..

The success scenario approach has been pioneered by researchers at the University of Manchester (see Miles (2005) for an overview)