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or the audience and the purpose addressed. 2 Common to many foresight exercises is the development of either different scenarios,
Moreover, by staging the pathways leading to the realisation of different scenarios it is possible to identify needs for action
it strengthens the rational basis of decision-making by capturing often implicit assumptions, expectations and underlying values about the future explicitly in different scenario images and corresponding pathways;
it supports strategic thinking about portfolios of options across different scenarios and during different phases of the policy cycle.
thus facilitating the design of several plans for dealing with the consequences of different scenarios should they materialise.
foresight also facilitates the adoption of a holistic approach in terms of identifying possible impacts within and among different scenarios.
and specific trade-offs must be identified 32,33. 3) The outcome of an assessment of options in the context of different scenarios still depends on the type
if dependency on context conditions is considered which is represented graphically by connecting the performance scores of a specific option under different scenarios by a polygon (see Fig. 2). Size
The different scenarios were analyzed then in order to determine their sustainability challenges. For example the downturn scenario showed an increase of the environmental impacts of untreated wastewater overflows during heavy rain events.
i) The core team assessed the options'generic strengths and weaknesses in reaching sustainability goals in a well balanced way for each of the different scenarios.
Scientific knowledge concerning natural changes constitutes different scenarios of the future and social knowledge can also be formulated into various scenarios depicting the potential futures.
and exploring the future in different scenarios (Godet 2001). In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method,
'Yet the uncertainty of different scenarios is seen also aspolitically weak and administratively untidy'as they rarely point unequivocally to one course of action.
Fixed Structured discussion and the generation of new ideas in the workshops Autonomous Creative brainstorming and ideation in the different scenario and roadmapping workshops.
Still, different scenarios were considered. Fixed A fixed procedure and methods selected in the beginning of the project. Autonomous Autonomous scenario work among the stakeholders.
while trends are used to ask how each different scenario plays out against each trend and the other (less critical but still relevant) change drivers. 2. 3. Wild cards or shocks Because most people have experienced surprise situations
For example, different scenarios were developed; models were used for quantitative assessments. A wide range of stakeholders have been involved as well as, on a smaller scale, the wider public in form of an online survey.
Conclusions The backcasting process depicted in this article produced four different scenarios for climatically sustainable emission level
However, one must be aware that the relevance of quantitative methods may lie more in their systematic process of comparing policy alternatives under different scenarios,
and b. using scenarios) a different scenario process is shaped and different types of outcome are achieved. Identifying these two groups of scenario practice is neither a typology nor a comprehensive classification.
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