scenario

Scenario

Different scenario (20)
Exploratory scenario (17)
External scenario (4)
Plausible scenario (10)
Scenario (1255)
Scenario analysis (53)
Scenario approach (18)
Scenario axis (4)
Scenario building (38)
Scenario development (26)
Scenario exercise (29)
Scenario ideas (5)
Scenario literature (14)
Scenario method (11)
Scenario planning (123)
Sociotechnical scenario (6)
Traditional scenario (3)

dealing with scenarios and options for establishing production consumption chains based on renewable resources, the participants were asked for an assessment of the process

when aiming at seemingly desirable scenarios? It is known commonly that socio-technical change is tied to a wide range of uncertainties

where workshops and expert panels are taken as the main source of information for constructing scenarios.

Typically scenarios of some kind (s) play a role in this mapping. Finally a solution, i e. a single or, more typically,

i e. in general terms they are beneficial in all scenarios, but their specific shape depends on the conditions of the respective scenario.

In fact, many technologies tend to have a double-edged character, because they can be beneficial under certain circumstances and detrimental under others.

and telecommunication technologies, are expected to have a very positive impact within an optimistic information society scenario. The same technology,

however, can be abused in a‘big brother'type of scenario when used for invading the privacy sphere of individuals.

Typically a handful of alternative structures a type of visionary scenarios are constructed and then tested against, e g.,

Another experience that led the way towards Adaptive foresight was the use of scenario methodologies in the first Swedish National foresight exercise. 15 Based on these experiences

The reason for this preference is that such scenarios can, in a way useful also for non-experts in innovation research, convey the notion that the complex innovation system logic discussed above may develop over time in alternative, qualitatively different, ways.

In order to be useful a set of scenarios should be: Relevant with regard to current strategic issues. Even though scenarios depict future developments it is current policy-making they shall inform.

Plausible in the sense that they start from (aspects of) the current situation and develop in ways consistent with established knowledge.

each scenario should present interesting strategic issues, and the whole set of scenarios should represent the full range of most salient such issues as well as possible (for tractability the number of framework scenarios is held normally at just three or four).

Ideally all scenarios should present an interesting mix of challenges, rather than being good or bad. 27 An external drivers'workshop is performed in a structured brainstorming format where participants first get to upload their ideas on drivers.

This can be done in a verbal dialogue where the facilitator (s) in a tour de table format asks each participant at a time to enter a new idea,

Scenario skeletons can then be derived by clustering such storylines based on consistency the so-called inductive approach. The deductive alternative is to analyse systematically the scenario space spanned by the most prioritised uncertain drivers.

This should be done in a small group, not as a plenary exercise. It will then typically turn out that some such variable combinations are unlikely (i e. more or less inconsistent),

others hard to distinguish from other scenario candidates and therefore not so useful. It is also useful to start 27 These criteria for good framework scenarios are developed based on a set of criteria often used in the Shell/GBN tradition

Often the scenario ideas are developed further at the initial workshop in syndicate work where each group takes care of one embryonic scenario.

starting to specify each scenario in terms of key drivers and other descriptors of relevance to the focal issue.

However, the work of scenario specification must always be continued back-office after the workshop. A part of this work is to sharpen the driving logic of each scenario and the contrasts in this regard within the whole scenario set.

This is the key to making the scenarios challenging. Often it is also necessary to further research the key scenario variables and their relationships through literature study and expert interviews.

This is to ascertain plausibility. This work may also be supported usefully by (normally simple) simulation models.

It is not uncommon that the scenario ideas derived at the workshop have to be modified considerably at this stage,

and explainable reasons in order to ensure the ownership of the scenarios by the participants of the process. 3. 2. 5. Phase 4:

This discussion can be held already before the initial scenario work (Phase 2) or informed by the scenario ideas developed in that phase.

then multiple scenarios can help create useful variety. A variant of the structured brainstorming format described under Phase 2 could be used also here.

making sure that the scenarios can answer the right questions. The visions and objectives are also an important input to Phases 5 and 6. 3. 2. 6. Phase 5:

identification of challenges associated with each framework scenario The challenges opportunities and threats are what connect the framework scenarios with the addressee's area of responsibility.

But a type of backcasting more distinctive for AF is to identify a best possible variant of each framework scenario

this stagewise backcasting of the scenario pathways allows also discussing the appropriate timing of policy and other measures,

By developing consistent pathways, the backcasting exercise represents a second level of testing the credibility of a scenario.

in order to capture the full range of aspects that can potentially come into play in the course of a scenario pathway,

identification of collective strategies (portfolio analysis) So far, individual scenarios have been developed, refined and analysed. Each of the scenarios and pathways can be characterised in terms of technologies

and policies that have been realised. The options delivered by the scenarios have also been assessed with respect to our focal issue.

From today's perspective, portfolio analysis then looks across the scenarios in order to assess and select those technology options

and corresponding policies that promise to be either robust or adaptive (or both). In other words, robust options are fairly easy to identify

because they are assessed positively in all or most scenarios. Adaptive options have been identified as part of Phase 6

when possibilities are sought to move the basic scenario in a more desirable direction. Adaptive options are

or for exploiting specific opportunities in a single scenario. These kinds of insights should then serve as an input for today's policy-makers to prioritise, for instance, emerging technologies and design corresponding policies.

what they term deep uncertainty represented by very large scenario sets, sometimes over periods of hundreds of years 50.

A. Eriksson, Scenario-based methodologies for strategy development and management of change, in: M.-O. Olsson, G. Sjöstedt (Eds.

2000.33 E. A. Eriksson, M. Stenström, Scenarier för Teknisk Framsyn Scenarios for the Swedish Technology foresight, Swedish Technology foresight Report, Stockholm, 1999.34 P. Wagner

Paper presented at the 10th DRUID conference, DRUID, Aalborg Copenhagen, 2005.47 K. Van der Heijden, Scenarios, The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1996.48

IST success scenario and policy priorities, FISTERA Research report, PREST, Manchester, 2005.50 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C. Bankes, Shaping The next

governance, Technikfolgenabschätzung Theorie und Praxis 12 (2)( 2003) 11 20.13 S. Kuhlmann, J. Edler, Scenarios of technology and innovation policies in Europe:

Foresight methodologies including scenario, Delphi and even simulation approaches are rather costly and time-consuming, involving numerous experts.

For the development of scenarios on the future role of regulation, information about the various regulatory options has to be collected.

For each scenario, the respective relevance and impacts of the selected regulation have to be determined.

the scenario technique is an appropriate methodology, since often the regulatory option ranges between massive interventions in the market and doing nothing in a liberal laissez-faire policy style.

To this end, we used socio-technical scenarios to house some of the more detailed path dynamics

and desk research (on socio-technical scenarios in general see Geels 64 and Elzen et al. 65,66).

These scenarios in themselves contained reliable information on the current situation and selected prospective chronologies of innovations in cell-on-a-chip (rather than possible choices to go for.

The idea of a generic platform is contended still (this contention was included in one of the three socio-technical scenarios)

Through analysis of socio-technical scenarios, emerging paths and emerging irreversibilities in the field of research can be anticipated

The workshop participants accepted our diagnosis given in MPM-1 and scenarios as well as the MPM-2 tool as relevant.

Change 71 (2004) 141 159.26 F. Lizaso, G. Reger, Linking roadmapping and scenarios as an approach for strategic technology planning

it is of crucial importance to underpin the proposed new round of reforms by thorough and systematic prospective analyses, e g. by developing‘futures'(‘visions'or‘scenarios').

These visions offer a description of future states in 2020 2025 rather than fully fledged or path scenarios

In a radical scenario, not to be discussed here, the loss of most/all EU policy-making power to national, regional,

For a largely similar scenario, called Swiss Europe, see 18.29 Emerging countries, e g. China and India, might also become important competitors,

Policy 30 (6)( 2001) 891 903.20 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Res.

Co-evolutionary Scenarios: An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology, a research project exploring potential co-evolutions of nanotechnology and governance arrangements.

This involved the inclusion of pre-engagement analysis of potential co-evolutions in the form of scenarios into interactive workshop activities, with the aim of enabling multi-stakeholder anticipation of the complexities of co-evolution.

Additionally, strategic options were assessed in relation to specific scenarios 21. Whereas foresight has often been run in participatory settings in the past,

1) Exploratory context scenarios analyze a set of possible future framework conditions relevant for organizations, regions or communities.

The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.

In land-use planning, Xiang and Clarke 29 speak of learning scenarios as vehicles for better specifying preferences for specific ends.

Context scenarios are especially important in the case of infrastructures as there is a high interdependence between the long term oriented infrastructure

Xiang and Clarke 29 call them decision scenarios with a focus on means. In corporate contexts, innovation oriented foresight focuses on long term product development strategies or market prospects.

p. 6. Potential solutions have to be reflected critically against the broad background of context scenarios

The variation of interests and in parallel potential conflicts increases with the consideration of political side effects of more radical solutions 36 as well as with different political and societal situations in context scenarios.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 integrated system-and demand-management perspective 38, p. 4. Some scenario projects show a variety of different land use

or transport technology scenarios without explicitly assessing adequate strategies 39 43. Others include the assessment of options

A meta-analysis of 80 scenario processes in the U s. found that these processes were started with a clear idea of the desired results

a widening of participation in the assessment phase is necessary to include local knowledge for the establishment of regional specific scenarios 6 as well as for multi perspective assessment of options.

The participants select three to four scenario cores from the analysis of regional and regulatory developments.

They construct the context scenarios for the year 2030+discursively by describing coherent and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64.

The evaluation of options is carried first out by the core team applying the different criteria in a balanced way for each scenario.

the perspectives of relevant stakeholder groups are taken into Account for each scenario, participants adopt roles of different future stakeholder groups representing either future citizens

In the end, a list of assessments will be available for each option under each scenario and evaluated according to the preferences of each considered interest group. 3. 2. Exploring the landscape of trade-offs These results may then be analyzed via different perspectives.

The first one relates social preference for each option in each scenario to its potential social conflict level (see Fig. 2). For simplicity's sake,

we chose to average the ordinal preference values that the different interest groups attributed to each option in each scenario as an indicator.

no attention is given to unequal power relations between the stakeholder groups or different possibilities of realization for each scenario.

In the first workshop, the stakeholders elaborated four alternative scenarios describing context conditions in the year 2030+based on the set of influencing factors

II) The powerful region scenario with effective regional collaboration and secure employment in industry and farming.

In this scenario there is only little migration within a strong middleclass segment and local industry and farmers.

III) The top/flop scenario describes a downturn of industrial activity in the region. Inhabitants of peripheral areas leave the region

IV) The downturn of the Kiesental scenario is characterized by job loss and emigration. The situation gets worse with increased pressures from climate change like floods and droughts.

the downturn scenario showed an increase of the environmental impacts of untreated wastewater overflows during heavy rain events.

For instance in the downturn scenario, citizens were characterized as being rather overaged, modest, conservative, and attached to their region,

Citizens in the downturn scenario, for instance, claimed that onsite treatment represented the most desirable solution because maintenance costs would be low

Strengths include the replacement of the cost intensive sewer network and the flexibility of the system, especially under downturn and top/flop scenarios.

In the downturn scenario, assessment results were rather antagonistic. In the high quality of life and the powerful region scenario, both groups ranked the solution as rather problematic or not desirable.

In the top/flop however both groups saw it as a rather positive solution. The option umbrella organization was perceived generally as being beneficial

Especially in the downturn scenario, this option seemed to lead to high organizational complexity with insufficient benefits.

The merger option was favored strongly by industry and in two scenarios also by the citizens.

Citizens in the powerful region scenario, however, criticized the limited possibility for participation and in the top/flop scenario they were afraid of a disconnection of peripheral areas.

A comparison of the stakeholders'assessment with the sustainability evaluation of the core team offers insight into the sustainability deficits that a politically negotiated solution would entail (see Fig. 5)

In the downturn scenario, the core team assessed onsite treatment as the best solution due to savings in the sewerage network,

In the case of the high quality of life scenario, the possibility to recycle water was very important from an overall point of view,

We developed a specific methodological layout of a strategic planning process the Regional infrastructure foresight method that builds on a combination of foresight approaches that focus on exploratory context scenarios, option assessment and multiple perspectives.

Nevertheless, in the final evaluation of the process, they strongly welcomed the opportunity to conjointly develop the scenarios

For instance, region specific context scenarios could be created commonly in a first step, while sector specific options are developed separately in a second step

alternative futures as a case study, Futures 18 (5)( 1986) 658 670.23 L. Börjeson, M. Höjer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall, G. Finnveden, Scenario types

towards a user's guide, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 723 739.24 A. Marchais-Roubelat, F. Roubelat, Designing action based scenarios, Futures 40 (1)( 2008

knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight, Futures 38 (8)( 2006) 942 955.29 W. Xiang, K c. Clarke, The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Environ.

A. Fink, O. Schlake, Scenario management: an approach to develop future potentials, Technol. Forecast. Soc.

typically reported as scenarios, visions, roadmaps and action recommendations. The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years,

In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.

Possible and potential futures are examined by applying, for instance, scenario, backcasting or roadmapping methods. Among other methods and practices in the field are constructive technology assessment

Risk is defined as the combination of probability (frequency) and consequence of a certain scenario. Relevant probability data is seldom available

economics and technology, applying big amount of creative brainstorming approaches ending to two potential scenarios.

The results of the process showed that the created scenarios were too generic to apply the traditional (process safety) risk assessment methods

This kind of scenarios cannot sufficiently be analysed by the currently available risk assessment methods, because these methods require more detailed knowledge of the target to be analysed:

The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,

Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.

and social knowledge can also be formulated into various scenarios depicting the potential futures. A strategy to handle this multiplicity requires selection.

In the context of the Nordic hydropower production and distribution, for instance, the most threatening scenarios are selected for the risk estimation and evaluation process.

Such scenarios may, for instance, concern the increased precipitation and flooding, which have political, ecological, social, technological and economical effects in society. 3. 4. Positioning the projects according to some important dimensions Könnölä et al.

In IRRIIS project the results show that risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing loosely constructed scenarios.

The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail. It was noticed also that both processes

therefore, conducting risk assessment only to the produced scenarios may be difficult. Another option may be to keep the risk assessment approach in the process during the whole foresight exercise.

Scenarios should be as accurate as possible in order to be able to be processed by risk analysis techniques.

Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated. How case studies contributed to risk management methodology? The results show that the integration of proactive risk assessment

Outlooks, proposals of the future developments, scenarios, visions, roadmaps, action recommendations. Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase

SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

Guideline Scenarios General Summary, 2004 http://www. futuribles. com/pdf/Strategicenvironment. pdf. Read 28th 2009.

the use of large numbers of computer generated scenarios to optimize policy choices 2, and the creation of credible indices of progress across countries, companies and groups with common assumptions to measure progress. 3. Reducing the domain of the unknowable It is hard to imagine the consequences of a new breakthrough before it occurs.

Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty,

This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature

While a lot of scenario work has been conducted so far a systematic analysis of its use, impacts and effectiveness in environmental policy-making is still missing.

or several aspects of using scenario planning 2. This article merges the findings from this review with the results from a workshop with environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers.

evaluation and learning amongst environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers about new forms of long-term strategic policy-making and their enabling conditions.

and opportunities that arise across a set of plausible alternative scenarios, describe a range of possible consequences for candidate policies,

thoroughly analysed scenarios can be of little use and relevance, if the organisational capacity to absorb them is poor,

The distinction between scenarios as products and scenarios as processes is relevant in this context. Process is as important as the product 7. The remainder of this article is organised as follows:

BLOSSOM is an acronym for Bridging LONG-TERM Scenario and Strategy analysis Organisation and Methods, where organisation refers to the relevance of the organisational

and institutional context and methods refer to the need of developing methods to better align long-term scenario

The different functions of scenario planning can be distinguished into indirect and direct forms of scenario-based decision support (17,

Moreover, scenario planning can offer a policy risk-free space to visualize, rehearse and test the acceptability of different strategies without being implicated by the actual constraints of day-to-day policy-making.

because scenarios provide a potentially very attractive approach to addressing uncertainty and complexity. Furthermore, the focus of our review was on literature that explicitly attempts to evaluate scenario planning approaches,

and weaknesses of several different exercises and assessments of the impacts scenario planning approaches can have on decision-making processes Fig. 1. Forms of scenario-based decision support. 1200 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting

As part of this analysis we organised a two-day international workshop gathering thirty environmental scenario practitioners from governments

when using scenario planning. 3. Synthesizing the available evaluative scenario literature 3. 1. Types of evaluative scenario studies The literature attempting to assess the impacts of scenarios employs different types of evaluative methods.

Some studies describe the theoretical benefit of scenarios, some drawing on general psychological understanding of human decision processes and biases

A particular type of work is ethnographic studies examining how scenarios are used within organisations 26.

In addition, survey instruments in workshop settings are useful tools to measure how different types of scenarios can affect decision makers'understanding of the challenges they face and preferences for response options 27.

There are also data available on the types of businesses that use scenarios most often large firms in capital-intensive industries with long (greater than 10 years) planning horizons.

However only a handful of studies report empirical results on the central issue how scenario use correlates with an organisation's performance 28.

or are difficult to single out from the complexity of influence factors. 3. 2. Impacts of scenario planning The few studies that attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of scenarios find them useful 29,30.

We only identified one empirical study that concretely assesses the effects of scenario use on organisational performance:

and find that scenario use correlates with increased profit and return on capital 28. A comparison of four scenario exercises related to global change applications suggests climate scenarios are used mostly to support further modeling and analysis,

though they can also help frame public debates 17. A limited relevance for decision-making in policy processes is recognized by a review of practice in the broader area of foresight:

Using scenarios can increase participants'perceptions of their strategic communication and conversation skills. This has been confirmed by studies that gather data on individual participants in a scenario planning project 20.

One example is the study of Groves et al. who presented decision aids incorporating scenario concepts in a series of workshops to managers

using scenarios to address the challenges facing firms can easily fail for another reason: managers can reject the scenarios

because no viable options existed that would enable the business to address the threats the scenarios conveyed 32.

Several studies highlight potential shortcomings of scenario exercises or emphasize ways in which they deviate from the practice described in the case study literature.

and plot them on two axes to structure the subsequent development of four diverging scenario stories.

Much of this literature highlights the need for consensus on the scenario axes in order to foster a common basis of understanding.

A close examination of a qualitative scenario project conducted by The netherlands Institute for Spatial Research identified three different and contradictory interpretations of the scenario axes employed 26.

The main impacts of scenarios often result more from the process of developing them rather than from any published product describing the scenarios that were created.

The value in close collaboration between scenario 1201 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 developers and users, particularly at the beginning and ending stages of a scenario exercise,

which people trust scenarios and thus use them. Trust can based on trust in sources, that is,

in the people who develop the scenarios or trust in content, that is, the reliability of the information known to be used in constructing the scenarios.

Additionally trust is gained from methodological credibility, i e. confidence in the method used to generate the scenarios,

or trust in narrative, i e. the extent to which the scenarios build on existing metaphors and beliefs.

Finally, trust in dissemination is important, that is the stature of the people who present the scenarios 11.

A number of studies propose ways that government agencies might be organised to make better use of information contained in scenarios.

One study for the U s. government suggests several steps for using long-range forecasts more effectively,

and act on scenarios 34.3.3. Treatment of surprise and discontinuities A reason often quoted for using scenario planning as a decision support tool is its ability to reduce overconfidence about the future 35.

However, a number of studies argue that it is difficult for scenarios to accommodate or anticipate surprises or discontinuities.

examined 20 scenario studies of U s. national security and found that all tended to focus on extrapolations of current concerns

A comparison of the treatment of surprises in 22 scenario studies highlights that seven of the eleven scenarios including discontinuities were exploratory,

Building scenarios from trends rather than key driving forces might reduce the combinations that normally become excluded in the scenario axis approach, because of potential inconsistencies.

However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.

but our review did not provide the space. 3. 4. Differences between public and private sector applications Much of the literature on scenario theory

A comparison of five public sector scenario exercises addressing regional development concludes that there is little difference in the actual day-to-day work of developing scenarios between public and private sector applications 23.

However, scenario users in the public sector can face more difficult challenges in establishing the client

Methods that work well in developing scenarios for small groups, well known to the scenario developers, may not work well in developing scenarios that can be used by large organisations or in broad political debates 37.

and interests faced by public agencies may make impossible any consensus about the meaning of scenario axes 26.

The traditional scenario axis approach argues against including probabilistic information with scenarios. However, in some public sector applications such probabilities may prove useful.

and against including probabilities with climate scenarios a key study concludes that probabilities may be useful in some situations,

in particular when the key variables distinguishing the scenarios are few and quantitative and the potential scenario users are numerous and diverse.

Probabilities may be less useful when the scenarios are rich, complex narratives; their purpose is heuristic exploration;

and the users are few, similar, and known 39.1202 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 4. Reviewing practitioners'perspectives 4. 1. Relevance

On the basis of their personal experience, workshop participants were asked to rate the direct and indirect forms of scenario-based decision support both on a scale from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high) with regard to the specific relevance (importance)

Overall, participants identified a higher relevance of more indirect forms of scenario-based decision support. Stimulating wider debates about possible futures and clarifying an issues importance were ranked as the objectives of highest relevance.

The level of political difficulty is higher for these forms of scenario-based decision support, as they touch upon a number of vested interests around policies,

when evaluated against the framework of scenarios. Another argument concerned a potential mismatch of scenario formats

and information demands by policy-makers. The literature discusses the notion of scenarios often being hollow diamonds that sparkle alluringly

but fail to contain real value to the decision-making process 35. Our process came to similar conclusions.

and the skills and experience of those using the scenario outputs were regarded to be of critical importance.

and experiences of those carrying out the scenario exercise is the selection or negotiation of the scenario methodology.

often in form of dedicated units. 5 Examples of using scenarios to frame and support decision-making include the 5 The Future Analyst Network (FAN-Club) has been established as a permanent network of people dealing with future-related issues in different departments, agencies and the private sector. 1203

In Sweden, the Swedish Environmental Objectives Council which is responsible for monitoring Sweden's set of long-term environmental quality objectives used a set of four alternative scenarios to generate a range of new,

long-term scenarios could help to broaden the focus of assessments, which several evaluation studies found as one weakness of efforts so far 41.

A lot of progress needs to be Fig. 2. The key success factors of scenarios and other futures methodologies. 1204 A. Volkery

But scenario practitioners often confirm that the heterogeneous nature of objectives and interests faced by governments makes it difficult to establish a key client,

In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners, but also very different attention foci.

Does this assessment mean that future efforts should concentrate rather on indirect forms of scenario-based decision support,

Our discussions with scenario practitioners pointed into the different direction. Having an impact on the design

Current conditions in many governments and public administrations constrain the ability to effectively pursue direct forms of scenario-based decision support.

It requires flexible and adaptive scenario formats and processes that vary between open and closed formats of interaction with many or few actors 12.

on the other hand, scenarios are seen as part of a scientific inquiry, as in the case of global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the IPCC, work on the systematization of methods

There are important claims in the literature about scenario's ability to affect the cognition of individuals and groups by reducing overconfidence,

Numerous case studies suggest that scenarios can improve the performance of organisations, but few studies have tested these claims.

the importance of the context and process of scenario creation is emphasized. But there is little evidence to connect these insights to resulting performance of the participating organisations.

Many public sector applications may require a more systematic connection between scenarios and recommended decisions than do private sector applications.

Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;

and process of scenario creation affects their impacts. If and how probabilistic information should be used with scenario planning in public policy would be another concern.

diverse audiences for public policy scenarios often require some type of information about relative risks. In addition, the question of a potential correlation between scenario approaches and impacts and effectiveness of use require further evaluative efforts.

(and either might be the case) scenario practitioners need to pay more attention to windows of opportunity, the areas of maximum uncertainty and doubt,

where the scenario builders and developers are sufficiently skilful and representative, and where the intended target audience of the work is engaged, understood and sufficiently responsive.

Decis. 35 (1997) 219 223.5 P. Wack, Scenarios: shooting the rapids, Harvard Bus. Rev. 63 (6 nov./

A Manual for Assessment Practitioners, forthcoming. 7 B o'Neil, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Y. Garb, Where next with global environmental scenarios?

and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C

New methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy analysis, 2003, RAND MR-1626-RPC. 11 C. Selin, Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38 (1

Lessons from developing participatory land use scenarios on a European scale, Syst. Pract. Action Res. 21 (6)( 2008) 459 477.14 M. Howlett, M. Ramesh, Studying public policy, Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford

, K. Fisher-Vanden, D. W. Keith, L. O. Mearns, H. M. Pitcher, C. E. Rosenzweig, M d. Webster, Global-change scenarios:

Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 767 777.21 Y. Garb, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Scenarios in society

, society in scenarios: towards a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling, Environ. Res.

Change 72 (2005) 161 173.37 R. Lempert, Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful?

G. Ringland (Ed.),Scenarios In public Policy, John Wiley, Chichester, 2002.39 D. G. Groves, R. J. Lempert, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant

scenarios, Glob. Environ. Change 17 (2007) 73 85.40 J. A. Dewar, Assumption-based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 2002,

She has authored co several scenario and foresight publications at the European and international level. Teresa has worked in environmental policy issues for over 20 years