Plausible scenario

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Synopsis: Scenario: Plausible scenario:


ART18.pdf

and plausible scenarios that are regional specific 63,64. Secondly, the core team systematically evaluates the impacts of these context conditions on the infrastructure system relative to an encompassing list of performance goals.


ART24.pdf

The process provides a means for the creation of rich, context aware and plausible scenarios, which are accepted as legitimate and controlled speculations by participants of Constructive TA workshops.


ART80.pdf

and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques, and robust optimization. The proposed approach,

This case demonstrates how the performance of a policy can be improved iteratively by exploring its performance across thousands of plausible scenarios,

which the adaptive policy needs to be extended until a satisfying dynamic adaptive policy is found for the entire ensemble of plausible scenarios.

all alternative system models, plausible scenarios, and evaluations require consideration, without exception, and none should be treated as the single best model representation, true scenario,

i e. with many different kinds of uncertainties, multiple models, a multiplicity of plausible scenarios and evaluations of these scenarios 17.

and exploring a multiplicity of plausible scenarios by sweeping multidimensional uncertainty space. EMA could then be used to identify vulnerabilities

and (3) the development of an ensemble of models that allows generating many plausible scenarios. It then proceeds with:(

in the models,(8) the generation of all plausible scenarios, subject to the candidate policies, (9) the exploration and analysis of the ensemble of scenarios obtained in Step 8


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