scenario analysis

Scenario analysis

Different scenario (20)
Exploratory scenario (17)
External scenario (4)
Plausible scenario (10)
Scenario (1255)
Scenario analysis (53)
Scenario approach (18)
Scenario axis (4)
Scenario building (38)
Scenario development (26)
Scenario exercise (29)
Scenario ideas (5)
Scenario literature (14)
Scenario method (11)
Scenario planning (123)
Sociotechnical scenario (6)
Traditional scenario (3)

an integrated scenario analysis, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73 (6)( 2006) 607 629.1161 E. Störmer et al./

an application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 70 (4)( 2003) 359 384.54 O. Renn, Participatory processes for designing environmental policies, Land use Policy 23 (1)( 2006) 34 43.55 B. Truffer, Wissensintegration

For instance, scenario analysis may be just a little part of the whole foresight process and, therefore, conducting risk assessment only to the produced scenarios may be difficult.

on discontinuity and scenario development, Futures 35 (5)( 2003) 423 443.36 Theo J. B. M. Postma, Franz Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Axel Volkery, Phd, is a project manager for policy and scenario analysis at the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.

or engaging in its own scenario analysis). ) Yet new means of communication not just the internet,

PAGE 292 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Kosow, H. and Gaßner, R. 2008),‘Methods of future and scenario analysis:

as its interface facilitates data analysis, display of forecasting results and scenario analysis. For further details see Hughes et al.

D. S. 2011),‘Using the international futures (IFS) model for scenario analysis: combining quantitative and qualitative methods,

and principles as to how to strengthen innovation systems through scenario analysis. In this context, scenarios are seen as a tool for inspiring and orienting innovation systems.

and using future scenarios Scenario analysis is practiced across many domains and is restricted not to specialized futurists or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning

if they are used as predictions. 1. 2. Grand challenges The aim of this paper is to initiate a discussion on how scenario analysis can help to better cope with the grand challenges

In order to investigate how scenario analysis can help better cope with the grand challenges and inspire innovation, we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.

i e. participatory scenario analysis, is required to produce a variety of possible, and not only probable or desired futures among the actors that develop,

Chang. 65 (2000) 3 22.81 T. J. B. M. Postma, F. Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool, Technol.

How to improve scenario analysis as strategic management tool? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (2005) 161 173.22 E. Hiltunen, The future sign and its three dimensions, Futures 40 (3)( 2008) 247 260.23 F. Jégou, K

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:

we focus on the use of foresight methods, with special attention to scenario analysis, which involves the exploration of alternative images of the future,

In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article

the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.

We are interested in finding out (1) how scenario analysis as a Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

the use of the scenario analysis method makes policy-makers more aware of the future, future changes and the policy implications,

According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,

that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis and using their perceptions as a measure of the perceived added value.

The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,

the motives policy-makers have for using the scenario analysis method, and the perceived levers and barriers.

in which phase (s) of the policy cycle is the scenario analysis method used, and how and in which phase (s is added the value perceived.

scenario analysis methods can be used in the different phases of the policy cycle 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 11.

not only in the impact of using scenario analysis methods in the different phases of the policy cycle,

How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods? What are their motives for applying scenario analysis methods?

How are used the results in the strategic policy process, and in which phase (s) specifically? What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes?

Each case involved experiences with the application of scenario analysis methods at a regional and/or local policy level (including municipalities and regional authorities.

A project team of the Provincial organisation monitored the scenario analysis project. In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced.

P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition

and with five civil servants who were involved in the scenario analysis. The case of Trendbureau of Overijssel includes different foresight exercises for strategic policy processes of city councils and the provincial organisation itself, focusing on different policy themes.

In the case about The hague, a scenario analysis was carried out by 16 civil servants of the Department of Urban Development,

the researcher trained the officials in the use of the scenario analysis method, while in the Overschie case, the researcher facilitated the scenario development

N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?

In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.

Especially at the level of city councils, it is hard to find examples of strategic policy activities using scenario analysis methods,

and, even when scenario analysis is used, it is necessary to bring in external expertise. Some policy-makers mentioned that,

By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,

with the aim of gathering actual information to feed the scenario analysis, and to include representative and diverse perspectives.

What are the motivations of policy makers for applying the scenario analysis method? In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future

and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).

By using scenario analysis methods they learned to look at alternatives, which was seen as a new way of thinking in most organisations.

and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process.

When people are not familiar with the scenario analysis method, steering elements are implemented sometimes in the scenarios,

and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis. Generally speaking, civil servants at the national level find it easier to gain access to high quality information

, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping, and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change

including methodologies combining scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies.

, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics

value chain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Policy implications Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis