exploratory scenario

Exploratory scenario

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which alternative policies are to be assessed against the exploratory scenarios. It is important to consider this in Phase 3,

Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework

analysts often use techniques such as exploratory scenarios 9, Delphi surveys 10, and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11.

Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..

and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,

a list that was considered too long for building exploratory scenarios. The CSPR applied the following selection criteria to arrive at a list of no more than 15 key drivers:.

Constructing exploratory scenarios. The process of building exploratory scenarios provides a structure in which to explore and learn from the interplay of key drivers and their attendant uncertainties.

The result should be a sense of preferences and of what should be avoided. Scenarios are intended also to offer a platform to expose

The approach used for building exploratory scenarios in the ICSU exercise broadly aligned with a process previouusl developed by former Royal dutch shell Group staff,

'Phase 3 saw the exercise shift its focus from preparing exploratory scenarios to the development of Engaged National Global Detached Science for sale in a global market place Globalism driven largely by multinationals An international division

e g. peer review and other forms of self regulation Proliferation of local solutions to societal problems that also utilise‘traditional knowledge'Fewer opportunities for curiosity-driven Research funding for science is on a relative decline Figure 1. Exploratory scenario

The four exploratory scenarios articulated in Phase 2 provided stimulus for more creative thinking on a desirable success scenario

It was claimed also that the use of exploratory scenarios leads to minority views being given the same status as established scientific knowledge.

and the exploratory scenarios, have been packaged as a resource for member organisations (and others) to use in their own strategic planning or visioning processes (ICSU 2011b).

Already, there is evidence that some member organisations have started to use the exploratory scenarios in this way and ICSU hopes that more will follow

Notes 1. The German Fraunhofer Gesellschaft (2010) has developed also exploratory scenarios for the future of the European research landscape in 2025.2.

International Science in 2031 Exploratory scenarios'.'Paris: International council for science. iknow. 2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit: Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.