scenario building

Scenario building

Different scenario (20)
Exploratory scenario (17)
External scenario (4)
Plausible scenario (10)
Scenario (1255)
Scenario analysis (53)
Scenario approach (18)
Scenario axis (4)
Scenario building (38)
Scenario development (26)
Scenario exercise (29)
Scenario ideas (5)
Scenario literature (14)
Scenario method (11)
Scenario planning (123)
Sociotechnical scenario (6)
Traditional scenario (3)

Asce 130 (1)( 2004) 2 13.39 Y. Shiftan, S. Kaplan, S. Hakkert, Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system, Transport.

scenario building and Delphi method may serve the prognosis phase and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42.

Scenario building was based on large and vague trend analysis. The innovation process was seen as a whole. No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al./

and extend the scenario building process to introduce seemingly paradoxical elements to force a sensitivity analysis on the assumptions underlying claims of inconsistency 36.

Many practitioners consider scenario building to be a craft or art of challenging mind-sets in strategic conversations about long-term futures.

and Arie Rip have termed pre-engagement through socio-technical scenario building 2. It involves the combination of exploration of dynamics using theoretical models

Hybrid methodologies such as various combinations of scenario building roadmapping, surveys and creative methods are used widely. Key Foresight concepts such as‘‘vision''that were used previously in a rather broad and all encompassing manner have been deconstructed

The scenario building step involved around fifteen external experts and stakeholders. At various steps of the projects

scenario building and strategic environmental assessment. The term‘‘scenario''subsumes a broad range of tools and methodological approaches.

A scenario building process was carried out with a special focus on changing mobility patterns in urban lifestyles,

and finally 2, 900 responses were received in total. 2. 3 Scenario Three approaches were attempted for scenario building with a view to the desired future. 2. 3. 1 Scenarios by group work.

and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.

A combination of the outputs from the Delphi survey and scenario building has the possibility of providing a balanced whole picture of science

All the information from scenario building is dependent on each theme. Events that may have implicit impact and base or general-purpose technologies tend to have little chance of being mentioned. 3. 2 Procedure of combination Text mining is employed to combine information from two sources, i e.

Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack

such as bibliometrics and modeling to qualitative and participatory tools such as focus groups and scenario building cf. 30.

In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,

When the micro level is added in the fleshing out phase of the scenario building, it sometimes merely serves to illustrate the pre-conceptualised macro-structures.

In the past years approaches have been developed to integrate disruptive events into scenario building in the form of wildcards 20.

The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.

The aim was to avoid misinterpretations because of hidden signals (blind spots) caused by intra-systemic perception filters of the project team. 2. 4. Prolonged divergence In the initial phase of a scenario building exercise, the environmental scanning,

Secondly, at classical scenario building workshops people with different viewpoints and expertise are requested to assess the influence factors,

P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants

In a classical scenario building process participants'contributions are channelled through the scenario building framework. This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach.

and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix

J. Libermann, Participatory scenario building, in: E. Manzini, F. Jégou (Eds. Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:

For instance, during the scenario building process, further clarification was needed, which required returning to previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken and, most importantly,

In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed and the variables to be selected had to take place.

The methods combined bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a scenario building in order to better understand the factors involved in the initiation and spread of emerging diseases.

This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.

and scoping device for specific strategic forward looking activities (as scenario building, technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities

and complemented by the Delphi survey served as an input for a scenario building workshop. The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.

A few selected experts with a background in the creative content industries and/or scenario building were invited to join the projeec team for a two-day workshop.

Andreas Gräfe and Robert Hauser (all from the Reseaarc Center Karlsruhe, ITAS, Karlsruhe) for their contributions to the scenario building exercise.

and create a fuzzier vision than scenario building permits. If we look at the past, it is clear that a great change is anticipated often by a series of micro-events, often not perceived.

While this approach to scenario building has some drawbacks, e g. a certain rigidity that can sometimes stifle creativity,

This is the case for example with the horizon scanning services in the UK. 1 Horizon scanning also fulfils similar functions with scenario building.