scenario development

Scenario development

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At the end of a recent foresight and scenario development process in Austria, dealing with scenarios and options for establishing production consumption chains based on renewable resources,

In practice, processes of scenario developments and portfolio analysis will hardly be conducted on a continuous basis but at best be repeated every few years, for instance in line with an update of the overall technology and innovation policy strategy.

as reflected in the notion of adaptive elements in strategies and path-dependence in the context of scenario development;

The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.

For instance, deductive approaches to scenario development are used commonly. They usually rank driving forces, select the two most important driving forces

Scenario development and Analysis for Forward-looking Ecosystem Assessments. In: MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (in prep. Ecosystems and Human Well-being:

Lett. 3 (2008) 045012.8 P. Bishop, A. Hines, T. Collins, The current states of scenario development:

and Conflict, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989.19 P. J. H. Schoemaker, Multiple scenario development: its conceptual and behavioral foundation, Strateg.

on discontinuity and scenario development, Futures 35 (5)( 2003) 423 443.36 Theo J. B. M. Postma, Franz Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

However, as the participatory process was not following a strictly speaking forward-looking methodology (e g. scenario development, road mapping, etc.

scenario development in times of discontinuity. Boca raton, FL: Dissertation. com. Van Notten, P.,J. Rotmans, M. Van Asselt,

It uses of methods such as roadmapping and scenario development relevant to the particular organisation/stakeholder. An important point stressed in this context is the vital role that third parties can play in interpretation

Scenario development is used commonly here, along with formal modelling of one sort or another, and less common techniques such as gaming,(Roughly Horton's subtask (iv).)

On discontinuity and scenario development, Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 2, 175 194.12 S. Mendonc¸A m. P. Cunha, F. Ruff, J. Kaivo-oja

Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF

and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome, and policy options for that final outcome, rather than on a vision of the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the components,

For most foresight practitioners, scenario development is the archetypal product of future studies because it is profoundly creative and capable of handling uncertainty.

In the scenario development it was possible to identify areas where analytical tools are relatively weak and can be improved.

4. Results and implications The value of scenarios lies in the robustness of the claims to knowledge within the process of the scenario development.

In several exercises, expert judgment was the main input for scenario development. Involvement of stakeholders was looked not intentionally for.

while in the Overschie case, the researcher facilitated the scenario development and application process and was one of the authors of the scenarios.

Scenario development In times of Discontinuity, Dissertation. com, Boca raton, FL, USA, 2005.11 A n. G. Janssen M. R. Gramberger, P. A. de Ruijter, J. van Heijningen, Regeren is vooruitzien!

Moreover, the scenario development process should become an important contribution to organisational learning 28. The third phase (cascading strategy into operational actions) was conceived based on the original structure of the BSC.

The Delphi was meant to help reduce the uncertainntie associated with some of the impacts we came across in the analysis. Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Policy analysis Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC

This information served as input for our subsequent scenario development. The following issues turned out to be the most controversial:

for instance by adding a scenario development phase late on in the project. This becaam necessary because the range of possible futures turned out to be broader than was expected initially.