scenario exercise

Scenario exercise

Different scenario (20)
Exploratory scenario (17)
External scenario (4)
Plausible scenario (10)
Scenario (1255)
Scenario analysis (53)
Scenario approach (18)
Scenario axis (4)
Scenario building (38)
Scenario development (26)
Scenario exercise (29)
Scenario ideas (5)
Scenario literature (14)
Scenario method (11)
Scenario planning (123)
Sociotechnical scenario (6)
Traditional scenario (3)

Some studies provide detailed comparisons of several scenario exercises in order to assess the factors affecting the success of such exercises 17,22 25.

A comparison of four scenario exercises related to global change applications suggests climate scenarios are used mostly to support further modeling and analysis,

Several studies highlight potential shortcomings of scenario exercises or emphasize ways in which they deviate from the practice described in the case study literature.

The value in close collaboration between scenario 1201 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 developers and users, particularly at the beginning and ending stages of a scenario exercise,

can also be shown for scenario exercises related to global change applications 17. Process is an important factor,

None of the model-based scenario exercise included surprises 35. In this context another study suggests that standard scenario approaches tend to systematically exclude surprising or paradoxical developments as inconsistent or logical impossible.

thus examine potential differences between scenario exercises in the public and private sectors. A comparison of five public sector scenario exercises addressing regional development concludes that there is little difference in the actual day-to-day work of developing scenarios between public and private sector applications 23.

However, scenario users in the public sector can face more difficult challenges in establishing the client

Difficulties in applying traditional scenario methods among the heterogeneous stakeholders public sector scenario exercises must engage are reported also elsewhere in the literature 17.

and our own literature review 2. Scenario exercises are used often as ameans of collecting and synthesizing complex information

and experiences of those carrying out the scenario exercise is the selection or negotiation of the scenario methodology.

Many scenario exercises are commissioned in an ad hoc manner, and usually are executed by external contributors. Follow-up is often lacking,

The objective of this scenario exercise was to map out four distinctive end states and corresponding development paths that would enable the achievement of a climatically sustainable emission level

The backcasting approach, applied in this scenario exercise, is a scenario coming back from the future to the present.

quantitative analysis can lend coherence and credibility to scenario exercises. However, modelling tools should support the process

Roadmapping can be considdere as a meta-level visualisation of an organisational strategy that could utilise the inputs from Delphi or scenario exercises,

just as Delphi or scenario exercises could utilise inputs from roadmapping exercises. Conceptualised in this way, roadmapping comes quite close to system dynamic modelling techniques,

The project completed a systemic scenario exercise that integrated visionary components for example, in the form of application visions and exploratory socio-technical roadmaps.

and decision-making and by facilitating dialogues between various stakeholders 4. The value of the scenario exercise depends on the ways in

we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.

The identification of the motivation behind any scenario exercise appears to underpin the scenario typology described by Borjesön et al. 50,

This is in contrast with scenario exercises, where the motivation is oriented towards using the future scenarios for strategic discussions.

As an implication for practitioners, we recommend that careful design of scenario exercises is needed to achieve a balance between developing

During the scenario exercise, consensus may not be appropriate to promote differences and to stimulate novel ideas.

Based on our reflexive inquiry used to analyze scenario exercises in their context we can then attribute the most characteristic mode of thinking. 4 Innovation is not only about invention, creation,

In reality, each scenario exercise is a mixture of different modes and practice is shaped by the image (s) of the future and the techniques applied.

when designing and implementing future scenario exercises. As described in Section 4 (results and implications) cross-fertilizations between the techniques of the different groups can enhance the innovation potential.

it is still difficult to connect the insights of a scenario exercise to different steps in a strategic policy process.

Scenario exercises themselves are seen mostly as a project, not as an ongoing strategic process. It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.