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Synopsis: Scientific literature:

ART1.pdf

(DG JRC-IPTS), E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 20 february 2005 The contribution included in this special issue builds on material presented to the first EU US Scientific Seminar

10.1016/j. techfore. 2005.02.002 B The views expressed in this article are those of the author only

two contributions addressed the broadening of well-established quantitative methods to mesh with qualitative methods. This approach should provide enhancement to models in the future.

and moulding expert opinions into good conclusions remains an elusive goal. 4. Tales from the frontier The contributions to this session had a fairly common theme in that they focussed on the establishment of databases and the associated data collection,

whether the foresight community itself was locked-in in methodological terms given the age profile of methods. 7. This issue The articles of this issue only partly cover the richness of the papers delivered at the Seminar.

The articles were selected from three sessions. One contribution comes from the dmethodological selectiont, four articles were presented in dtales from the frontiert,

therefore dealing with new methods of FTA, and other two articles focus on analysis of methods and tools that have been

or could be adopted from other fields (i e. dimporting ideast session). In the first paper Gordon, Glenn and Jakil, describe boundaries

and challenges related to methods and approaches to improve the value and utility of FTA. Among the methodological issues that could be tackled to improve the FTA field

the authors of the papers suggest a number of developments such as a more systematic integration of new technology (especially ICT) to allow interaction

and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. This paper describes, through a case study on solid oxide fuel cells, the value of quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies.

The article describes the F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1062 process on how the system operates, the players involved,

The two following articles, focusing on Technology assessment (TA) and, using as case study nanotechnology, stress the pressure that new technology developments are posing to the field of TA.

The first contribution from van Merkerk and Van Lente, describes a methodology to map and understand the dynamics of emerging technologies.

The article introduces the importance of understanding and tracing the role of dirreversibilitiest of technological changes (i e. expectations that guide the research activities of scientists and firms,

The second contribution by Fleischer et al. argues that TA of emerging (and enabling technologies requires the introduction and use of new methods.

The article illustrates the use of roadmapping as a tool for TA contributions to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies.

ART10.pdf

Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

uncertainty and interactivity. 1 Even if certain 1 In particular evolutionary and Neo-Schumpeterian economics as well as Social Studies of Technology have made important contributions 2. 464 E. A Eriksson,

and belief in the contribution of foresight activities to shaping rather than predicting and controlling the future.

and their contributions to be positioned in a comprehensive framework. 7 A fact-based foundation is thus as crucial for the credibility of foresight as a critical assessment of the sources of knowledge.

and remedies are currently being proposed in a growing literature on good practice. 8 However, it is our contention that in all three respects it is particularly useful to draw on insights from adaptive planning (AP). This approach,

and consequently a tendency for each author to start afresh. One explanation for this state of affairs is the proximity to commonsense thinking and everyday usage of terms like robustness

but it is made based on experiences by the authors over the past ten years in a number of European and national foresight and policy strategy processes.

Often it is also necessary to further research the key scenario variables and their relationships through literature study and expert interviews.

Fig. 1 summarises important experiences thus far with AF, based on selected Austrian, Nordic and European projects in which the authors have been involved.

The Journey of Strategic management, Sage Publications, London, 1998.49 R. Popper, I. Miles, L. Green, From Seville to success:

ART11.pdf

Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.

Scalability is needed to process contributions from stakeholders who are concerned with different facets of innovation systems at the local, sectoral, national and international level.

In Woodwisdom-Net, scalability meant that the consultation process had to deal with varying amounts of contributions from large number of stakeholders in different countries.

The director of the TKK group (the third author of this paper) facilitated the workshops, with support from thewoodwisdom-Net Coordinator.

We also wish to thank Dr. Leena Paavilainen for her major contribution to the design of the foresight process.

foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy

He has written around 90 professional publications including well over 40 articles in refereed scientific journals. 495 V. Brummer et al./

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495

ART12.pdf

Regulatory foresight: Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management

Among the OECD countries, regulatory impact assessment gained a certain momentum after the publication of the OECD report on best practices in impact assessment 2. The growing interest in RIA in other countries, especially in Europe 3

However, regulatory impact assessment is the starting point for our contribution. The paper goes one step further and tries to address especially approaches which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory action,

The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,

or reported in the literature. Finally, we derive requirements for future research. 2. Overview of regulatory foresight methodologies

The most important science and technology indicators are publications in scientific journals and patents 20. The former indicator reflects better the activities in basic research

& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.

or better the patent regime can be identified by respective discussions in the literature or by the creation of new classes in the international patent classification IPC.

For Germany, he was even able to show in time series models that the dynamics in patent applications is reflected in the output of standardisation documents 21.

However, one outcome of the second study was the publication of a programming mandate addressed to CEN

environmental and safety aspects addressed in scientific publications or patents, and even the identification of stakeholders, especially companies,

Best Practices in OECD Countries, OECD Publications Service, Paris, 1997.3 R. E. Löfstedt, The Swing of the Regulatory Pendulum in Europe:

OECD Publications Service,(2003. 514 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 5 European commission, European Governance:

ART13.pdf

Our paper addresses well-known lacunae of alignment tools from the viewpoints of the path creation/dependency literatures.

Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.

There is a wealth of literature focusing on the functions, uses and tools of roadmaps in high-technology companies andmncs 3 20.

Literature in the management of innovation, expectations management and sociology-of-technology fields has stressed repeatedly that for assessments during early stages of technological emergence, more‘open-ended'

Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.

There is now a substantial (and growing) literature on dynamics of path emergence and stabilisation. Here we can only focus on the main lines of research

and highlight relevant notions. 2. 1 Insights from the literature into the notion of path From literature on evolutionary economics,

The concept of emerging irreversibilities combines emerging structure (as in path dependency literature) with agency (as in path creation literature) by looking at indicators of alignment

Using literature analysis and a number of semistruccture interviews we constructed a map of the actual and possible technological

Its methodological development and shaping owes its robustness to both a study of the relevant literature and interaction with practitioners.

Tools for assessment/alignment have been discussed in bodies of literatures as diverse and heterogeneous as: strategic management of S&t;

the strategy literature; the general R&d, innovattio management and management literatures; futures studies; organization studies; the S&t policy literature;

and bibliometrics, scientometrics, and patent analysis. For the conceptual developmeen of MPM, our self-set task was to integrate insights from roadmapping, dynamics of Emerging s&t and expectations,

and path dynamics. We argued that for new and Emerging s&t path dynamics 68 should be addressed,

At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.

As a consequence of their use of this tool, they have approached the authors in order to further apply the management tool to see

ART14.pdf

Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

'The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.

Actors'alignment 1. Introduction The present article presents results to date2 from research leading towards the production of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.

i e. foresight exercises need to be assessed in terms of their contribution to the attainment of higher level, generic goals.

This is based on a review of the available literature. A further review of the literature on foresight impacts showed that many of these are in linewith the societal shifts needed

if emerging 2 Phd research will be complete by Jan. 2010.3 Strategic goal for 2010, set for Europe at the Lisbon European council March 2000 (http://www. europarl. europa. eu/summits

and goal attainment levels. 2. A conceptual framework to characterise emerging knowledge societies The findings of the literature review on the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics

The major elements reported in the literature can be grouped under three broad categories: a group comprising facts

'4 Notwithstanding the importance of knowledge in previous types of societies, several authors acknowledge a shift in the economic structure of modern societies away from a‘material'input driven economy towards a knowledge-based

but also of social changes and the building of social 4 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review see 1. 541 E. Amanatidou,

The literature suggests that the emerging knowledge societies are also‘risk societies',characterised by decision-making conducted within an environment of increasingly uncertain or incomplete knowledge.

'The findings of the literature review on what constitutes the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge and risk societies are synthesised into a conceptual framework describing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.

The way these factors are linked to each other, based on the findings of the literature review, 6 is shown by the lines connecting the factors. 3. Contribution of foresight to the emerging knowledge societies The above conceptual framework facilitates the identification of areas where foresight impacts may contribute to the strengthening

(or weakening) of the conditions enhancing the development of a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,

see 1. 542 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 the literature review,

which focused on the reported impacts of foresight exercises both intended and unintended. The available literature7 on foresight impacts notes that it is mainly the foresight process impacts that contribute to certain characteristics of the emerging‘knowledge society'.

especially those reported in the available literature. Table 1 groups together many of the reported objectives and impacts associated with foresight exercises under the headings of‘intermediate'and‘lower level'goals. 5. Approach for developing an impact assessment framework It is possible

A review of the available literature on factors affecting the results and impacts of foresight programmes11 identified four main groups of factors:

then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context

It should also be noted that the literature on technology assessment programmes is also relevant to the case of foresight programmes.

For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking and actors'alignment is discussed.

Thus the author concludes that in those cases where these elements are most important, then hierarchies are applied better.

There seems to be a subtle psychological transition from making positive contributions to the discussions to becoming active members of the constituency.

The difficult part is to make the contributions converge into a manageable and realistic programme,

'This suggests that it is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory‘knowledge societies,

ART15.pdf

This article offers an alternative approach, using the case of EU universities as an example, to rectify these shortcomings.

thanks to the richness of literature and the number of projects and workshops analysing the future of universities:

while other documents only discuss a single vision, i e. do not consider alternative futures; a striking example of that approach is the recent EU Green Paper on the European research area 3. Georghiou

p. 4. 2 These terms are used often as interchangeable ones in the literature a simple,

This article offers an alternative approach, using the case of EU universities as an example, to rectify these shortcomings.

this article does not report on the results of an actual foresight process on universities: it is a proposal to apply the foresight toolkit in this field by following a new approach.

The theoretical framework of this article rests on the innovation systems school 10 15), and especially its emphasis on the importance of academia industry co-operation 16,17).

universities vs. other players There is a rather strong consensus in the literature on the rationale to spend public money on basic science:

and especially that of the government sector, is higher in the less developed countries (Figs. 1 2). Third, output indicators, such as publications, citations,

Furthermore, this sector is often less visible in public indicators (such as the number of scientific publications

an extensive statistical annex can be found in the original report for the DG Research, EC, on which this article draws.

universities are likely to be evaluated by using new metrics, besides the conventional criteria of academic excellence (notably publications, citations).

Following the usual distinction in the literature, we can think of‘process benefits'and‘products'.'The first would include more intense,

in July 2005 the European commission published a draft document on Cohesion Policy in Support of Growth and Jobs:

which would also enhance their visibility and social esteem. 34 5. Conclusions This article considered alternative futures for EU universities.

Yet, the widely held consensus in the literature on the rationale for funding‘basic science'by public money still rests on the Humboldtian model:

and hence their contribution to socioeconomic development, major stakeholders need to be involved when strategic decisions are to be made on universities.

Acknowledgements This article draws on a report prepared for an expert group on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area

http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/anchor/Higheredanchorpaper. pdf. 10 G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, G. Silverberg, L

Implications for Innovation policy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 1999.580 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 15 OECD, New Rationale

http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,

The European Challenge, HLEG report, DG Research, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2005.24 OECD, Frascati Manual:

, The Future of Research actors in the European research area, Synthesis Paper, HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2006.28 A. Bonaccorsi, The Changing Role of Researchers in Europe, 2020, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future

of Knowledge, Sage Publications, London, 1994.31 L. Sanz-Menéndez, The Future of Key Actors in the European research area:

Regional governments, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.32 A. Bonaccorsi, C. Daraio (Eds.

Towards a Knowledge-Based Economy, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2003.39 OECD, Main Science and Technology indicators, OECD, Paris, 2006.40 M. Thorne (Ed.),Universities

Policy 35 (10)( 2006) 1450 1464.43 EC, Key Figures 2005, Towards a European research area, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2005.44 EC Cohesion Policy

Differences to the USA and Changes Over Time, WIFO, 2005.48 J. Romanainen, National Governments, Contribution to the DG Research Expert Group on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.

ART16.pdf

Building on the success of the 2004 and 2006 events, the third edition of the Conference in October 2008

thus following the example of the first special issue from the previous edition of the Conference 2. This issue offers the reader a unique opportunity to travel with the editors on a journey of discovery where new approaches to the development of policies for advancing societal

Of all the papers and a technical note included in this Special Edition, probably the most challenging and innovative for policy makers and FTA PROCESS designers is Scott Cunningham's Analysis for Radical innovation.

Complementing Cunningham are several other authors we have included because they are concerned also with the application of novel and adapted FTA TOOLS and approaches.

The authors analyze the role of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests.

and so apparently do the authors in this Special Edition. FTA evokes the power and appeal of hopeful,

Totti Könnölä1 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), JRC-European commission, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain Corresponding author.

The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 1137 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137

ART17.pdf

t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:

A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented. We consider a possible, radically decentralized context for the conduct of future design.

A literature review of related work in the field of technology opportunities analysis is presented. A case study of new technology architecture in the information technology domain is presented.

It extends and elaborates upon the procedures described by these authors for discovering new linkages of knowledge through use of a structured representation of science and technology,

These authors go further: rather than simply describing a new and distributed environment, they prescribe the manner in

so the authors argue, it is necessary for responsive organizations to restructure themselves to exploit this knowledge environment.

The actual economic and institutional arrangements necessary to create flexible and distributed networks may have been captured in the regional development literature 13.

This review suggests an important avenue for research in this article, and in future research: creating software solutions to help innovative organizations develop new technologies within an open innovation environment.

A structured representation of the data provides a principled account of where technological change is most likely to occur. 1139 S w. Cunningham/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 The article

(whether it this be press releases, patents, or research articles). Rather, the participating organizations use the database as a coordination mechanism,

The description of distributed design in this article is, perhaps, somewhat at odds with the stated premise of technology roadmapping.

Nonetheless, the purpose of this article is not to advocate flexible networks of innovating firms as a preferred form of innovative activity.

Extensive technical details of this data structure are available in the literature on complex networks. A literature on hierarchical random graphs,

and their use in managing information about complex networks is emerging 21 24. Clauset 21 for instance, provides a useful survey article on the random hierarchical graph.

We see to complement the technical literature with the following interpretive and example-oriented discussion of the methodology.

The hierarchical random graph consists of a treelike series of nodes. Treelike indicates that the structure is connected fully,

and all links to foreign editions of Wikipedia. Finally, we eliminate all links to pages associated with dates and years

A few network properties have received considerable attention in the literature. First is the average degree of nodes,

despite the fact that the author does not endorse a structuralist account of the data. The network grows rapidly in size.

scripting languages (Activex, Java Applets and Visual basic Script), document models (DOM and XHTML), alternative implementations of Ajax (using JSON and IFRAME),

and the use and conversion of XML documents with standard web pages (HTML). These technology linkages are associated with a 70%likelihood.

Wikipedia documentation of these developments is under 3 months old 28. The current Wikipedia Accessible Rich Internet applications page is only a stub without the detailed hyperlinks typical of awikipedia page.

(or as we identify them in this article the nodes of the network), and change in the linkages between the concepts.

Thus, as these authors argue, there are two different flavors of radical innovation architectural innovation (focusing on links),

The author suggests that the original conception of architectural change, as specified by Henderson and Clark 29, is predicated on external sources of innovation.

The sociology of science literature and the innovation policy literature, do offer such discussions, even going so far as to prescribe effective means of social organization.

This paper does not attempt such a prescription. Armed solely with the evidence of the graph,

Acknowledgements The author gratefully acknowledges the use of C++ code and Matlab scripts as provided by Aaron Clauset on his webpage (Clauset 2008).

The author appreciates helpful discussion from Jan Kwakkel on the epistemology of knowledge networks. References 1 M. C. Roco, Key note address:

, An interactive system for finding complementary literatures: a stimulus to scientific discovery, Artif. Intell. 91 (2)( 1997) 183 203.11 H. Chesbrough, W. Vanhaverbeke, J. West, Open innovation:

E 65 (6)( 2002) Article Number 066130.25 J. Gill, Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach, Chapman & Hall, 2002.26 J. J. Garrett, AJAX:

ART18.pdf

Switzerland a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:

the recent literature has provided a number of new approaches and tools like modeling tools, real option approaches and decision analysis. However,

author. Eawag P o box 611, CH 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland. Tel.:++41 44 823 56 73; fax:+

In the present paper, we aim at explicating the contribution of the foresight approach to the identification of trade-offs.

In the social science literature, the couplings have been described as socio-technical regimes. They consist of rules, standards, scientific knowledge, engineering practices,

the authors elaborated and tested a specific method for strategic infrastructure planning, the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF.

The contribution of discursive approaches in the urban water sector. Water Policy (submitted for publication.

6 R. Popper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, M. Butter, G. Sainz, Global Foresight outlook 2007, Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World, EFMN, Manchester, 2007.7 E. A. Eriksson, K

Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.45 I. Chatrie, J. Rachidie, AGORA 2020 Transport, housing, urbanism and risk, in:

Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.46 H. Thenint, L. Lengrand, Démarche Prospective Transport 2050 For a better French

Collection of EFMN Briefs Part 1, Office for Official Publications of the European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.47 H. J. van Zuylen, K. M. Weber, Strategies for European

ART19.pdf

, FI-33101 Tampere, Finland a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:

whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.

The authors'involvement in technology assessments studies commissioned by the Parliament of Finland, development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),

research traditions and concrete projects the authors are familiar with. The increasing mutual understanding, and the better utilization of the partly overlapping, complementary competence and knowledge bases, are among the objectives of the exercise.

for instance, defining the scenario methods the most creative and literature review evidence based, while future workshops are interactive and expert panels more for addressing expert opinions.

The pertinent literature and other kinds of external expert knowledge are consulted also as deemed necessary Traditionally,

These projects are chosen based on the authors'knowledge, experiences and/or involvement in the projects. The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight

literature reviews and other such methods are used in both approaches. However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase.

No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS.

When the contribution of FTA is emphasized on revealing technological changes and their impacts in the future, the contribution from other areas is needed also.

This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.

Acknowledgements The authors want to thank especially Ms. Riitta Molarius (CES project Mr. Pekka Maijala and Mr. Pasi Valkokari (INNORISK project) from VTT for providing valuable discussions and material concerning the case projects.

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