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Synopsis: Scientific literature: Author:

10.1016/j. techfore. 2005.02.002 B The views expressed in this article are those of the author only

the authors of the papers suggest a number of developments such as a more systematic integration of new technology (especially ICT) to allow interaction

Policy strategy Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 Corresponding author.

and consequently a tendency for each author to start afresh. One explanation for this state of affairs is the proximity to commonsense thinking and everyday usage of terms like robustness

but it is made based on experiences by the authors over the past ten years in a number of European and national foresight and policy strategy processes.

Fig. 1 summarises important experiences thus far with AF, based on selected Austrian, Nordic and European projects in which the authors have been involved.

Robust Portfolio Modeling Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 Corresponding author.

The director of the TKK group (the third author of this paper) facilitated the workshops, with support from thewoodwisdom-Net Coordinator.

Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.

As a consequence of their use of this tool, they have approached the authors in order to further apply the management tool to see

Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

'4 Notwithstanding the importance of knowledge in previous types of societies, several authors acknowledge a shift in the economic structure of modern societies away from a‘material'input driven economy towards a knowledge-based

Thus the author concludes that in those cases where these elements are most important, then hierarchies are applied better.

Complementing Cunningham are several other authors we have included because they are concerned also with the application of novel and adapted FTA TOOLS and approaches.

The authors analyze the role of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests.

and so apparently do the authors in this Special Edition. FTA evokes the power and appeal of hopeful,

Totti Könnölä1 Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), JRC-European commission, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain Corresponding author.

The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 1137 Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137

It extends and elaborates upon the procedures described by these authors for discovering new linkages of knowledge through use of a structured representation of science and technology,

These authors go further: rather than simply describing a new and distributed environment, they prescribe the manner in

so the authors argue, it is necessary for responsive organizations to restructure themselves to exploit this knowledge environment.

despite the fact that the author does not endorse a structuralist account of the data. The network grows rapidly in size.

Thus, as these authors argue, there are two different flavors of radical innovation architectural innovation (focusing on links),

The author suggests that the original conception of architectural change, as specified by Henderson and Clark 29, is predicated on external sources of innovation.

Acknowledgements The author gratefully acknowledges the use of C++ code and Matlab scripts as provided by Aaron Clauset on his webpage (Clauset 2008).

The author appreciates helpful discussion from Jan Kwakkel on the epistemology of knowledge networks. References 1 M. C. Roco, Key note address:

author. Eawag P o box 611, CH 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland. Tel.:++41 44 823 56 73; fax:+

the authors elaborated and tested a specific method for strategic infrastructure planning, the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF.

whereas in foresight exercises the positive developments like innovation possibilities has Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 Corresponding author.

The authors'involvement in technology assessments studies commissioned by the Parliament of Finland, development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),

research traditions and concrete projects the authors are familiar with. The increasing mutual understanding, and the better utilization of the partly overlapping, complementary competence and knowledge bases, are among the objectives of the exercise.

These projects are chosen based on the authors'knowledge, experiences and/or involvement in the projects. The results of this analysis are presented in the following section. 3. 1. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (IRRIIS) A case study of the use of foresight

Acknowledgements The authors want to thank especially Ms. Riitta Molarius (CES project Mr. Pekka Maijala and Mr. Pasi Valkokari (INNORISK project) from VTT for providing valuable discussions and material concerning the case projects.

10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.11.008*Corresponding author. E-mail address: jglenn@igc. org (J. C. Glenn. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,

One of the authors (Gordon) found that slowing down the feedback tends to stabilize social systems exhibiting chaotic behavior.

He is the innovator of several methods of futures research and author of several books and hundreds of articles dealing with the future research methodology, space, and innovation.

and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.

Accordingly the three rounds executed have been an important lesson for the authors of barometer, and the publication of the last barometer is assessed to well fulfill transparency requirements of the stakeholders.

Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author. E-mail address: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de (K. Cuhls.

but reflects the personal opinion of the authors only. Part of the analysis presented in this paper is based on two internal reports 3. We would like to acknowledge the work of Tom Ling

Corresponding author. E-mail address: axel. volkery@eea. europa. eu (A. Volkery. 1 See for more information the website:

the authors examine two UK industries, water supply and IT consulting, and find that scenario use correlates with increased profit and return on capital 28.

and policy-makers the authors conclude that new approaches are necessary to increase the relevance and impact of foresight exercises 31.

the authors argue, and extend the scenario building process to introduce seemingly paradoxical elements to force a sensitivity analysis on the assumptions underlying claims of inconsistency 36.

Despite this belief, almost all Foresight implied wider dimensions Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Corresponding author.

Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Denis Loveridge and Penny Street, and the Emerald Group Publishing, for their permission to use significant extracts from their paper‘Inclusive foresight'in‘Foresight:

in interaction with various societal actors. 2 This term was created by the author for the purposes of the project,

and was led by the author. 1223 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 There is increasing recognition that innovation emergence is a nonlinear process,

The authors suggest to acknowledge and embrace these dynamics of selection environments but go no further.

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The authors analyse the strategy processes of the Danish technical research council and the Danish energy research programme and find that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved with a better understanding of the traditions

However as a result of the critical and systemic assessment of the process the*Corresponding author. Email: ozcan. saritas@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

10.1080/09537320903262272 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014 916 Editorial authors conclude that the short-term success of the policy impact was at the expense of mediumtt long-term impact

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*Corresponding author. Email: pean@man. dtu. dk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).

even though by some authors the term‘foresight'has also been used regarding prospective thinking in corporate strategy.

Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),

To these authors there seems to be a relationship between Martin's definition of foresight

The authors came primarily from public research institutiions and also from industry. They were hand-picked by the council as experienced, visionary researchers,

the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.

'Furthermore, the authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable comments and suggestions from two anonymous referees. Notes on contributors Per Dannemandandersen is head of the Innovation systems

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research system 1. Introduction In 2005, Luxembourg began to embark upon a‘national'technology foresight exercise, with the primary aim of identifying newresearch domains for the National research Fund (FNR) to support*Corresponding author.

and advice of an international group of eight science policy experts (including one of this paper's authors) through a one day workshop.

no re-alignment of resources in money or kind by other actors is knownto the authors.

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The aim was to develop, in a participatory process, a comprehensive strategic framework as well as concrete proposals for*Corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Brita Staxrud Brenna, Beate Elvebakk, Jon Hovland and the anonymous referees for their valuable comments regarding this paper,

Verification of the project can be provided by contacting the author. 11. Proposal sent by Lundal's head of administration to the community council, September 2005, p. 7. 12.

reflexivity and the social construction of knowledge, a note to authors in COSTA22. European Science Foundation. http://www. costa22. org/articles. php (accessed June 2009.

Foger 4 Badwal 22 Jarrey 8 Top Authors Top Inventors Next Step: Initiate contact with Foger or Badwal?

The table (lower right) indicates the top inventors and authors.!From this digest of the company's open R&d face, we pose the action question for managerial decision.

Perusal of the organizational affiliations of the authors suggests possible benchmark universities. A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1079!

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*Corresponding author. Email: ahti. salo@tkk. fi ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:

except for the first author of this article who served as its chairman and the project manager of Finnsight. 3. 2. Foresight panels

Notes 1. The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. 2. The Academy of Finland is comparable to the US National science Foundation

SDME 10/84, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium*Corresponding author E-mail addresses: luke. georghiou@mbs. ac. uk (L. Georghiou) jennifer. harper@gov. mt (J. C. Harper) fabiana. scapolo@ec. europa. eu (F

§The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.*

*Corresponding author. Tel.:++33 01 45 92 65 82. E-mail addresses: a. schoen@esiee. fr (A. Schoen), totti. konnola@ec. europa. eu (T. Ko nno la), philine. warnke@isi. fraunhofer. de (P. Warnke

The two strings of co-activity (scientific authorship by corporate researchers and patented invention by academics) can be analysed as linkages between the scientific networks (formed by authors)

Authors cited within patents 11 Source: ISAAA<http://gmoinfo. jrc. it/gmp browse. aspx>.>12 Source:

It is characterised by a strong coactivity (publications'authors that are as well as inventors) and an intense institutional complementarity between academia and industry.

Stephen Haeckel 2, author of Adaptive Enterprise, notes badaptive organizations require, first of all, a systematic ability to search out,

The abstracts are searchable by date, author, source, topic, or scanner. Users can assemble any number of abstracts on any topics into a customized set of abstracts.

*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: luke. georghiou@mbs. ac. uk (L. Georghiou), jennifer. harper@gov. mt (J. Cassingena Harper.

which have been classified here by the authors. The most popular group is one we have called analysing the future potential of technologies.

§The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission or of its services,

*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com (T. Ko nno la), fabiana. scapolo@ec. europa. eu (F. Scapolo), paul. desruelle@ec. europa. eu

While the authors consider diverse approaches valuable in the realm of foresight to address societal challenges, for the purposes of this paper,

but rather to analyse projects that the authors knew well and considered relevant and/or distinctive to provide some empirical findings for further analysis

*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: Annele. Eerola@vtt. fi (A. Eerola), Ian. Miles@mbs. ac. uk (I. Miles.

For a more conventional far-future vision Last and First Men (1930) is a good introduction to this great author.

Several authors have suggested ways of understanding these phases in a little more depth. Thus Horton 9 depicted foresight as moving through three phases the chronological order is somewhat flexible, with scope for reiteration and overlap of these phases:

Occasionally we may see some broader overview coming from such sources often on the basis of the authors having absorbed a great deal of FTA thinking from other sources such as Naisbitt's Megatrends

Coates et al. 11.8 See Miles 13 and Georghiou et al. 37 for accounts of‘‘fully fledged foresight''a concept taken up by several other authors,

and SF authors. 13 These are only two of many examples of lively debate being occasioned by efforts to bring FTA METHODS to bear on issues that have already been the subject of influential FTA studies.

*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: cristiano. cagnin@ec. europa. eu (C. Cagnin), denis. loveridge@manchester. ac. uk (D. Loveridge), ozcan. saritas@manchester. ac. uk (O. Saritas.

H g wells and Aldous Huxley were among the earliest authors to challenge the conventional mantra, exposing the hidden social consequences and concerns for the future of advances, real and imagined, of S&t though in very different ways.

and presented back to the attendees in a plenary presentation by the authors. The current paper aims to clarify the concepts first by suggesting definitions

*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: ozcan. saritas@manchester. ac. uk (O. Saritas), jack. smith@drdc-rddc. gc. ca (J. E. Smith.

Arguably the best known work in wild cards comes from Petersen 7 author of‘‘Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises''.

The definition suggested by the authors of the current paper is as follows: Discontinuities are those situations impacts where over time

The authors acknowledge that it could benefit from additional content assessment. However subsequent work will concentrate more on the interpretation of the rich data set that has been acquired

Another paper dedicated to a further elaboration of the BPS results is planned by the authors in 2009.

This classification was made by the authors to manage the high number and diverse nature of the responses.

Overall, the authors are pleased very with the response even though time did not permit a full analysis of the data.

In summary, the authors are excited by how this information might be dissected further and examined for themes

A full list of the interviewees is provided in Annex 1. A video of the interviews can be accessed at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/videos. html.*Corresponding author at:

Acknowledgements The authors greatly appreciate the contributions of Totti Ko nno la and Karel Haegeman from the European commission DG Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Studies to revising the paper

About the authors Vicente Carabias, who has a MSC in Environmental sciences from ETHZ in 1996,

Vicente Carabias is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: cahu@zhaw. ch Peter De Smedt has a background in ecological system analyses.

since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties

Additional refinements were proposed by other authors. Kleindorfer (2008, p. 7) distinguishes between‘‘epistemic risks, ''which arise from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate model

The authors differentiate between four levels; two of them are subcategories of so-called‘‘deep uncertainties.''''The latter ones are similar to the third category that Sven Ove Hansson (1996) has added to the discussion of uncertainty.‘‘

Scenarios are defined by many authors as a coherent illustration of possible future situations together with pathways that might lead to these situations (Kosow and Gaßner 2008.

About the authors Jens Schippl is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.

Jens Schippl is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: jens. schippl@kit. edu Torsten Fleischer is a Senior researcher at the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of technology.

''Several authors have developed concise descriptions of complex systems incorporating most of the concepts considered above. It is worth

Corresponding author Averil Horton can be contacted at: averil@alpha2omega. co. uk VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 303 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

About the authors Sirkka Heinonen holds a Doctor's degree in Philosophy from Helsinki University. She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku.

Sirkka Heinonen is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: sirkka. heinonen@utu. fi Ville Lauttama ki holds a Master's degree in Economics

10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.003 T Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 30 2537462. E-mail addresses: r. vanmerkerk@geo. uu. nl (R. O. van Merkerk) 8 h. vanlente@geo. uu. nl (H. van Lente.

Q 4 Earlier one of the authors has analysed this ongoing dynamic as the dpromise-requirement-cyclet 5. Alternatively,

The authors address some problems in order to actually make the nonvolatile memories. Also, they state that:

Acknowledgements The authors of this paper would like to thank Arie Rip, Ruud Smits, Ulrich Fiedeler and Nik Brown for their valuable comments.

''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,

About the authors Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is an Architect and Urban Planner, Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional planning Department,

He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools. Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is the corresponding author

and can be contacted at: josemiguel. fernandez@upm. es Leticia Redondo is an Architect and Urban Planner at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.

The views expressed in this article are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission. to find the factual evidence to justify its policy recommendations.

These authors claim that an examination of this kind should draw on the relevant disciplines of social sciences and humanities (SSH), such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics,

According to the author, foresight needs a paradigm shift in the Knowledge society, overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,

''As a consequence, the author noted that‘‘research outcomes do not fully reach the policy makers

About the author Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade is a Scientific Officer at the Information society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.

10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.005*Corresponding author. Tel.:++49 7247 824571; fax:++49 7247 824806. E-mail address:

The authors of the above definition consider this interval das a good approximationt, but not as a dplausible measure to define Nanotechnologyt

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and the authors conclude that FTA's practical outcomes are underpinned by subjective opinion in many dimensions.

The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.

and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.

, Carrera de San Jerónimo, 15-2, 28014 Madrid, Spain The views expressed are purely those of the authors

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Epistemic uncertainty, according to these authors, is uncertainty due to the imperfection of our knowledge, which can be reduced by more research.

As many authors (Haldane 1931; Whitehead 1978; Maturana andvarela 1980; Lewontin 1983; Varela, Thompson, and Rosch 1991;

2. Ontological uncertainty has been defined in several different ways by different authors. For example, Lane and Max-field (2004) distinguished between truth uncertainty, semantic uncertainty,

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can lesser*Corresponding author. Email: denis. loveridge@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080

Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Joanne Roberts of Northumbria University for helpful discussions during the preparations of this paper.

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Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,

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*Corresponding author. Email: cristianocagnin@gmail. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715488 http

10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.09.007*Corresponding author. Tel.:++1 505 844 7556; fax:++1 505 844 5670.

Year Year Year Year Year Year PIA PI PI Author Source Text Text Text Text Abstract Text a PI=principal investigator.

Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the LDRD Program, Sandia National Laboratories, U s. DOE under contract no.

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and on a‘culture of swiftness',on the constantly forming potentialities of the*Corresponding author.

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*Corresponding author. Email: huanglu628@163. com ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2012 Taylor & francis http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537325.2012.715491 http

SCI tallies since 2009 have found China to be dominant with 440 papers including at least one Chinese author.

He is the author of some 220 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005).

Corresponding author Yoshiko Yokoo can be contacted at: yokoo@nistep. go. jp PAGE 18 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

Design/methodology/approach The authors compare strategic dialogues with existing dialogue instruments and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making.

Corresponding author Frauke Lohr can be contacted at: frauke. lohr@grolman. com PAGE 28 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

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