The author would like to acknowledge the grant awarded by Forfa's, Ireland that supported the research reported in the paper. themes such as energy, resources, health and security.
menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
About the author Martin Rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation at the University of Glamorgan.
Corresponding author Anna Sokolova can be contacted at: avsokolova@hse. ru VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 53 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
The authors would like to acknowledge support from the National science Council of Taiwan and the efforts of Kang Hsieh in STPI who gave valuable advice on the amendment of this research.
the authors would like to express their gratitude to the reviewers, who contributed significantly to improving the quality of this paper. certain paths of development (Gavigan and Cahill, 1997;
PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
Hai-Chen Lin is the corresponding author and can be contacted at: hclin@stpi. narl. org. tw Dr Te-Yi Chan received BS, MS and Phd degrees in Computer Engineering from Chung Yuan Christian University
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 Corresponding author at: Center for Strategic Studies andmanagement (CGEE), SCNQD 2, Bl.
The authors claim that the first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide if the technology is worth investing in by better understanding how such technology might develop in the future.
As the authors also acknowledge, there is a major limitation of this method to assess a given technology.
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong.
& Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 The views expressed are purely those of the authors
Corresponding author. Tel.:++34 95 44 88 392; fax:++34 95 44 88 326. E-mail addresses:
which the authors of this paper belong. As such the paper aims to be a stimulus to further dialogue rather than providing an empirical stocktaking or a systematic and comprehensive review of literature.
In addition, several authors indicate that foresight reproduces or projects current knowledge and assumptions 19,20 and does not tell us much about the future.
Unsurprisingly, several authors plea for a stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration in future-oriented technology analysis, in order to identify truly alternative future developments
though the authors refer to Wikipedia and Google as similar examples. A related approach is proposed by Soojung-Kim Pang 41 who suggests that tools
the authors believe that such deep integration of methods can potentially enhance both the analytical depth and the policy impact of fta activities.
Acknowledgements The authors thank the anonymous reviewers and Ben Gardiner for commenting on this paper,
(Coordinating lead authors), Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios, in: S. R. Carpenter, P. L. Pingali, E. M. Bennett and M. B. Zurek (Eds), Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 Corresponding author at: Chengdu Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, PR China.
Author Indicator Robert J Watts, Alan L Porter 14 Number of items in databases such as Science Citation Index number of items in databases such as Engineering
The findings and observations contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National science Foundation.
She is the author of more than 10 articles. Alan Porter is a Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering,
GA. He is the author of some 220 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005) and Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley, 2011.
He is the author of more than 20 articles. Shu Fang is a Professor and the Director of Chengdu Library of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
She is the author of one academic book and over 30 articles. Tingting Ma is a Ph d. candidate of School of management & Economics at Beijing Institute of technology.
But these authors have not considered in detail the new capabilities and have not identified the possible sources of troubles
Most authors agree that it is impossible to define dinnovationt in a context-free manner,
In a very recent book edited by John Ziman 15 (Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process) we have different authors theorizing about these questions,
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1150 recent proposal of this author with George Modelski for a seminar on Globalization as Evolutionary Process 40 to be held in the spring of 2005 in Paris,
Characteristic for these techniques is that they aim at charting the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Corresponding author.
PRIM has been used in combination with EMA by other authors 40 42. Those applications, however, aimed at translating the troublesome regions back to qualitative scenarios that could then be presented to a decision maker.
Similarly, if the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 15 27 88487.
More specifically, the authors ask whether EMA can be used to facilitate the development of robust strategies even in the presence of many Table 6 The major uncertainties and their ranges.
and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities 6. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 Corresponding author.
Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the COST Action A22 network, IPTS and different past and present foresight network initiatives such as the European foresight Platform and Forlearn for organizing creative discussion platforms on foresight and scenario initiatives.
Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Corresponding author. E-mail address: Elna. Schirrmeister@isi. fraunhofer. de (E. Schirrmeister.
transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the stimulating ideas of the FTA participants, including the authors of the papers in this special edition but going well beyond and into the discussions, formal and informal,
which each session yielded. Thanks are also due to the conference committee who acted as rapporteurs
Responsibility for the interpretation and reflections made here is solely that of the authors who apologise in advance for any misinterpretation
Towards this end the authors advocate FTA designs that are tailored better to the context. Both papers unpack the widely accepted notion that‘‘context matters''by exploring more deeply
Again the authors take a more empirical or applied approach, by focusing on a particular case study, the‘‘Intelligent Manufacturing Systems 2020''project.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.011 authors make the case for taking all four of these areas into account
On the one hand the authors explore the use of FTA in the context innovation networks and innovation management.
At the same time the authors present an approach to adapt FTA practice to the changing nature of innovation and thereby to the requirements of a specific application.
and finalize this Special issue reflects the difficulty of this kind of ex-post process and the far-flung and changing circumstances of its authors and editors.
Marinelli@ec. europa. eu*Corresponding author. Tel.:++34 667448936 Riel Miller UNESCO, Bureau of Strategic planning, 7 Place Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France E-mail address:
*Corresponding author. Tel.:++45 4525 4535. E-mail addresses: pean@dtu. dk, per. dannemand@gmail. com (P. D. Andersen.
but apparently, the authors still find the clustering of such regions useful. We recognise, of course, that for some authors,
the selection of geographical regions might be used, primarily, for simple structuring of a text or a book and not as a deliberate analytical approach.
Based on Hofstede 19 The authors of this paper are responsible for the selection of countries and for the indicative groupings.
and the technology foresight programme was moved to 1 Authors'translation. P. D. Andersen L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 11 the new Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
The authors are thankful to Doris Schartinger from the Austrian Institute of technology for comments on the early version of the paper and to the anonymous reviewers who,
*Corresponding author at: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P o box 616,6200 MD Maastricht, The netherlands.
The first study conducted by the authors examined how Dutch departments use foresight to develop policy and strategy 23(‘policy foresight'.
The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.
One of the authors of this article was involved actively in two of the four local case studies.
and was one of the authors of the scenarios. One of the authors conducted both national level inquiries that were used as data sources for this article.
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
the authors feel that foresight studies are used not optimally (see 32). An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes.
In this paper, the authors develop four principles for the design and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience of designing
*Corresponding author. Tel.:++55 6133661516. E-mail addresses: cristianocagnin@gmail. com (C. Cagnin), totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com (T. Ko nno la.
This article aims to begin filling the gap by analysing the authors'experience with an international foresight project.
On the basis of this case study the authors outline what they consider to be the necessary preconditions
Section 4 outlines the lessons learned from the authors'experiences in designing and managing the IMS 2020 project.
The authors develop four principles that they believe should be taken into account when designing and managing an international foresight undertaking.
Moreover, the authors'claim that a collective vision should be shaped by building upon individual views actions and interactions with larger institutional structures. 2. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Diversity among global participants and their differing constituencies set a coordination challenge that calls for responsiveness towards all
the authors argue, to enable a systematic analysis of how different (weak signals refer to one another or what they mean to different stakeholders. 2 This is important
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 37 Acknowledgements The views expressed are those of the author
Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 Corresponding author.
The view of the author is that Regulatory foresight is an instrument for regulatory bodies to identify, in advance, future challenges for their regulatory regimes,
*Corresponding author at: Department of Telematics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, O. S. Bragstads Plass 2a, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Against this background the authors report the lessons learnt in developing and testing a new PMS that they have devised advancing on the Balance Scorecard (BSC) approach.
The authors conclude by highlighting specific ways in which FTA can be integrated in the PMS proposed. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
*Corresponding author. Tel.:++55 4899800630. E-mail addresses: sidnei@univali. br (S v. Marinho), ccagnin@cgee. org. br (C. Cagnin.
and change over time (Annex 1). The authors thus developed a new PMS to tackle these limitations,
Such an application of the system in practice shall be subject of future work to be developed by the authors. 5. Conclusions The system proposed was developed based on perceived gaps in the process of implementing the BSC The guiding objective was to combine characteristics inherent to PMS, such as participation
By doing so the authors'claim that the use of the system proposed aligned with FTA helps overcoming overall PMS (and in particular BSC) limitations.
and refine such a renewed system the authors propose its application in practice as an avenue for future research.
Limitation Authors Suggestions Authors The balanced scorecard is more of a diagram representing relationships or a flow diagram than a map of cause
*Corresponding author at: Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, The netherlands. Tel.:++31 15 27 81146.
1 The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Innovation-Oriented Research program‘Integral Product Creation and Realization (IOP IPCR)' of The netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation.
as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
The authors descrrib how user involvement can be applied during three different research stages in the innovation process,
v. vanrij@minocw. nl or vvanrij@planet. nl. The author wishes to thank the members of the Joint horizon scanning Team:
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author (as coordinator of the Joint Horizzo Scan pilot project)
This was also done for issues where authors had (very) different opinions. These sets of shared values14 are:
highly digitisable nature of the goods it produces combined T Fabienne Abadie (corresponding author) is at European Commisssio Directorate Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospectiiv Technological Studies, Edificio EXPO
Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Prof W Edward Steinmueller, Dr Aldo Geuna and Juan Mateos-Garcia from SPRU (University of Susseex UK) for their key role in the EPIS
Finally, the authors are grateful to Ioannis Maghiros and Corina Pascu (IPTS) who contributed throughout the EPIS project.
The opinions of the first author do not necessarily represent those of the European commission. This paper is revised a version of a paper presented at the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technoloog Analysis:
C Jonathan Calof (corresponding author) and Jack E Smith are at the Telfer School of management, Desmarais Building, Universiit of Ottawa, 55 Laurier Avenue East, Ottawa K1n
He is a prolific author with over 150 publications to his credit and also serves on the editorial board of several publications.
FTA objectives reported by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN)* A review by the authors of reports on mapping foresight by the EFMN reveals the wide range of objectives that different nations
the authors'assessment may have underestimated the longer term impacts of the activity of the nascent Office of the National science Advisor (ONSA),
the authors envisioned potential problems for the program and made recommendations consistent with the critical success factors identified.
The authors endorse the need for further assessments of foresight impact, survival and the dynamics of managing regime transitions that remain a continuing challenge to foresight advocates
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge and extend their heartfelt gratitude to all participants at the workshops
The authors are also grateful to Mr Jack Smith (Defence R&d Canada) and Dr Richard Silberglitt (Rand Corporation) who have given ideas
T Katrien De Moor (corresponding author), Katrien Berte and Lieven De Marez are at MICT-IBBT, Department of Communicattio Sciences, University of Ghent, Korte Meer
Many authors have explored this shift from traditional push-to more pull-and userdriive approaches. Whereas the former are characterrize by technology-centred strategies and limited user involvement
CTI database, authors'calculations Table 3. Subsidized enterprises by scientific field 2000 2002 Scientific field Number of firms Percentage Construction technology 11 5. 5
CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out
and Public policy February 2010 78 3. The questionnaire may be obtained from the authors. It is available in German,
University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia 3fabiana Scapolo, European commission Joint research Centre, Science Advice to Policy Unit, Brussels, Belgium*Corresponding author.
10.1093/scipol/scs026 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
The authors provide an analysis of the effectiveness and limitations of a number of different horizon scanning approaches applied in a European commission funded Framework programme project (SESTI).
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
70712-900, Brasilia, DF, Brazil 2catholic University of Brasilia, Brazil*Corresponding author. Email: chauke@cgee. org. br This paper addresses the challenges of communicating the results of a strategic foresight exercise
10.1093/scipol/scs015 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.
The present authors hope to expand this experiienc to other cultures, societies and realities. These three types differ in the following aspects:.
and Social sciences, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China*Corresponding author. Email: liuli66@tsinghua. edu. cn Few countries have increased their expenditure on r&d as rapidly as has China in recent years.
10.1093/scipol/scs006 Advance Access published on 17 february 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Richard P. Suttmeier and the two anonymous referees for their valuable comments.
10.1093/scipol/scs008 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
Acknowledgements The author particularly wishes to thank Prof. Jakob Edler and Prof. Andrew Mcmeekin at the Manchester Business school.
and Honorary Research fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK*Corresponding author.
10.1093/scipol/scs014 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
some authors (e g. Bergek et al. 2008) have recommended the functions of innovation system as an alternative point of analytical departure. 1 Such functional analysis,
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
Notes 1. Following other authors, the notional use of‘function'in this paper should not be confused with functionalist approaches found in sociology.
Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c, 28036 Madrid, Spain 4zhaw Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland*Corresponding author.
10.1093/scipol/scs012 Advance Access published on 11 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland*Corresponding author. Email: michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
10.1093/scipol/scs019 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
though the present authors have not found other examples that focus on mechanisms for internatiiona science collaboration.
Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the support of the CSPR in conducting the exercise, and particularly Task Team members Kari Raivio, Roberta Balstad, Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Lidia Brito.
Centre of Finland, Tekniikantie 2, P o box 1000,02044 VTT, Finland*Corresponding author. Email: toni. ahlqvist@vtt. fi The systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been discussed much recently.
10.1093/scipol/scs016 Advance Access published on 16 march 2012 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press.
, C/Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain*Corresponding author. Email: totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. The complexity of transnational research programming and the requisite large-scale stakeholder engagement set a major managerial challenge:
10.1093/scipol/scs020 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Wim Ooms Luke Dalton, Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko and the anonymous reviewers for their contributions to improving this paper.
The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
and Technology policy, Javastraat 42,2585 AP The hague, The netherlands*Corresponding author. Email: amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
10.1093/scipol/scs017 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively
according to the cited author or source, should be taken into account by policymakers, society and/or research.
They are usually articles or presentations by an author or group of authors, which describe a future narrative with a foreseen great impact on future science,
In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.
In focused expert review narratiive in the primary scanning usually contain already policy implications or even policy advice of author.
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
and ZHAW Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach 805, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland*Corresponding author.
10.1093/scipol/scs021 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
Acknowledgements The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European commission.
*Corresponding author. Email: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de One urgent mission for European research is to focus on the grand challenges of our time.
10.1093/scipol/scs018 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
Global challenges therefore represent different strands of issues (authors'own observation:.Some selected trends or‘megatrends'that are observed in a global context..
To the best knowledge of the present authors, the State of the Future report is the most comprehensive
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
'<http://www. horx. com/Reden/Macht-der-Megatrends. aspx>accessed 15 july 2011 (authors'own translation.
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