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(DG JRC-IPTS), E-41092 Seville, Spain Received 20 february 2005 The contribution included in this special issue builds on material presented to the first EU US Scientific Seminar
two contributions addressed the broadening of well-established quantitative methods to mesh with qualitative methods. This approach should provide enhancement to models in the future.
and moulding expert opinions into good conclusions remains an elusive goal. 4. Tales from the frontier The contributions to this session had a fairly common theme in that they focussed on the establishment of databases and the associated data collection,
One contribution comes from the dmethodological selectiont, four articles were presented in dtales from the frontiert,
The first contribution from van Merkerk and Van Lente, describes a methodology to map and understand the dynamics of emerging technologies.
The second contribution by Fleischer et al. argues that TA of emerging (and enabling technologies requires the introduction and use of new methods.
The article illustrates the use of roadmapping as a tool for TA contributions to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies.
uncertainty and interactivity. 1 Even if certain 1 In particular evolutionary and Neo-Schumpeterian economics as well as Social Studies of Technology have made important contributions 2. 464 E. A Eriksson,
and belief in the contribution of foresight activities to shaping rather than predicting and controlling the future.
and their contributions to be positioned in a comprehensive framework. 7 A fact-based foundation is thus as crucial for the credibility of foresight as a critical assessment of the sources of knowledge.
Scalability is needed to process contributions from stakeholders who are concerned with different facets of innovation systems at the local, sectoral, national and international level.
In Woodwisdom-Net, scalability meant that the consultation process had to deal with varying amounts of contributions from large number of stakeholders in different countries.
We also wish to thank Dr. Leena Paavilainen for her major contribution to the design of the foresight process.
foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy
However, regulatory impact assessment is the starting point for our contribution. The paper goes one step further and tries to address especially approaches which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory action,
'The paper is based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
Actors'alignment 1. Introduction The present article presents results to date2 from research leading towards the production of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.
i e. foresight exercises need to be assessed in terms of their contribution to the attainment of higher level, generic goals.
6 is shown by the lines connecting the factors. 3. Contribution of foresight to the emerging knowledge societies The above conceptual framework facilitates the identification of areas where foresight impacts may contribute to the strengthening
then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context
There seems to be a subtle psychological transition from making positive contributions to the discussions to becoming active members of the constituency.
The difficult part is to make the contributions converge into a manageable and realistic programme,
'This suggests that it is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory‘knowledge societies,
and hence their contribution to socioeconomic development, major stakeholders need to be involved when strategic decisions are to be made on universities.
, The Future of Research actors in the European research area, Synthesis Paper, HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2006.28 A. Bonaccorsi, The Changing Role of Researchers in Europe, 2020, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future
Regional governments, Contribution to the HLEG on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.32 A. Bonaccorsi, C. Daraio (Eds.
Differences to the USA and Changes Over Time, WIFO, 2005.48 J. Romanainen, National Governments, Contribution to the DG Research Expert Group on The Future of Key Research actors in the European research area, 2005.
In the present paper, we aim at explicating the contribution of the foresight approach to the identification of trade-offs.
The contribution of discursive approaches in the urban water sector. Water Policy (submitted for publication.
No contribution: the energy production process is noticed component by component. 1173 R. Koivisto et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS.
When the contribution of FTA is emphasized on revealing technological changes and their impacts in the future, the contribution from other areas is needed also.
This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.
Technology barometer aims at a contribution to related national discussion. Fromthe policy-makers'point of viewthere is a clear demand for an instrument providingwell argued,
The online survey is a contribution to the assessment phase, but cannot be a static selection mechanism for BMBF (see also 11).
from the current point of view, there are already some contributions. 5. Preliminary assessment and outlook Until the end,
or co-authored several contributions to academic journals and books on these topics. Teresa Ribeiro heads the Strategic Futures Group of the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.
more Inclusive foresight All of the above expectations require contributions to Foresight to be made from a wider range of participants (than the conventional expert community),
The co-evolutionary scenario approach is a contribution to the growing field of socio-technical scenarios 3. Other members of the family include regime transition scenarios14,
but important, contribution to this family by combining concentric and multilevel approaches through emphasizing co-evolution.
The council's annual contribution to the national budget negotiations, another strategic aspect of its activities, was coordinated with the 5-year plans.
Nordich2energy foresight complementary contribution of expert views and formal analyses. In Proceedings from the EU US Scientific Seminar:
owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level
the project leadership resolved issues of stakeholder interests and futures literacy before they received their contributions.
and the scope of their contributions in visioning projects. The article contributes to discussions of inclusive foresight by showing how stakeholder image construction poses questions of power relationships in municipal long term governance.
the discussion will highlight how such an image creation can influence the participatory potential of social groups up to the point where we might question the added value of their contributions.
and their contributions were considered important for how this future picture should be developed. At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.
The project proposal written by the municipal administrative leadership underlined the powerful position of the political representatives in the vision project:
however, shows that the collection of young people's contributions was preceded by the construction of a specific image of them as stakeholders.
i e. their contributions to the vision project. This paper argues that constructing a specific image of young people as stakeholders points towards a dilemma of inclusive foresight that cannot be rectified by specific management and process principles.
when it came to their contributions their present social status was not what the project leaders were interested in.
The municipal project organisers had to ensure that the contributions were in line with the desired outcome:
Through both image construction and the pre-processual framing of contributions, the project leaders thus ensured that the future ideas contributed by the young were well within the possible and the desirable.
while their contributions had to be framed by certain directed preconditions. Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!
Social Living their future lives in Lundal Concentrate on issues of well-being in society! Ask your parents and neighbours!
and non-reflexive The contributions would need narrative structure and other actors'input too fantastic ideas will be erased!
The project leaders might have been a bit hasty in declaring their contributions as nonreflective and unstructured. According to vision project members participating in school lessons at one college in Lundal,
the scope of their possible contributions was limited clearly through the preconditions they received from the project leadership.
The administrative and political leadership's construction of a specific stakeholder image and the preconditioning of the young people's contributions is a good example of exactly this performative way of exercising rhetoric and representative power in a municipal planning process.
This paper is a contribution to the discussion about the relationship between foresight and the democratic challenges of good governance and long-term planning.
the contribution of young people eventually mirrored existing political programmes. The final question is:‘‘How could this be different?'
because a certain image of a group of participants forms their contributions and the expectations regarding their participation.
The state and contribution of international foresight: new challenges. Paper presented at EU US seminar: the role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities, 13 14 may 2002, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
Also, some Finnsight panellists have made contributions to the establishmeen of these centres, which has created informal links between Finnsight and the centres.
Likewise, 90%noted that their contributions had been accounted properly for in the reports; and 88%thought that Finnsight will be important to the development of the Finnish R&i system.
when making their contributions to panel work. 4. 3. Consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations Consensual development of recommendations can be understood as the creation of jointly characterrise priorities, collaborative networks and future actions,
and that the contributions of all panellists would be reflected duly in the panel reports. It also alleviated the burden of the panel chairmen who could make use of compilation documents effectively
and orient the contributions (via an extended abstract on the website) to the selected themes to enable sufficient coherence to permit a productive discourse.
The special edition concludes with two contributions that sought to take advantage of the confluence of futures expertise brought about by the conference.
Based on this analysis conclusions for potential Foresight exercises with a relevant contribution for the development of these fields were sketched.
We are grateful to all the participants for their comments and contributions in particular to Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Jari Kaivo-oja, Philippe Laredo and Matthias Weber.
if participants value each other's contributions regardless of rank in the organization. The meetings can be relatively self-regulating
and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
Anticipation of intelligence (or knowledge) is a contribution to improve the knowledge base for the designing of policies.
"Today, with the i2010 policy framework, the EU aims to"promote the positive contribution that information
Its contribution was, however, difficult to trace in published official documents of the European commission that often do not explicitly refer to sources of ideas.
we elaborate and attest its validity in the context of ex post analysis of a number of foresight projects focusing on sustainability, security and information society and their contribution to policy-making.
Ramon Compan o'and Ioannis Maghiros as well as to anonymous reviewers for their contributions to improve the paper.
and groups to make really significant contributions. Typically these contributions will involve grasping one set of issues
and explicating just how important and potentially transformative these will be. Occasionally we may see some broader overview coming from such sources often on the basis of the authors having absorbed a great deal of FTA thinking from other sources such as Naisbitt's Megatrends
which can contribute important contributions to debate about future prospects and possibilities. Unfortunately for every study of this sort there are typically,
and knowledge One of the most influential contributions to thinking about organisational learning and KM has been the model of the dynamics of shared knowledge creation developed by Nonaka and Takeuchi 19.
It also involves the positive contributions of corporations, institutions and associations to enhance public policy within a new framework,
It is a means to make contribution towards more responsible and sustainable business behaviour. Its selling point is that SRI funds allow investors to invest according to more ethical values
At the same time, the contribution and intervention of FTA on global issues still needs to be conceptualised better to enable the community to take action.
We believe that this strong contribution from the more experienced contributors supports the basic assumption behind the survey that such a gathering of experts would constitute a uniquely defined relevant cohort worthy of sampling
%There was also a significant contribution from the Governmental respondents (over 31%.%Low number of respondents from NGOS (0. 95%)in trend assessment was noteworthy.
Acknowledgement We are grateful to our colleague Phd researcher Ms. Graciela Sainz de la Fuente for her valuable contribution to the analysis of the Big Picture Survey data.
the greater emphasis should be on improving the processes that influence impact. 3. The contribution of the FTA Conference A particular feature of the FTA Conference series is that it‘‘acts as a magnet to bring people interested in FTA together
Acknowledgements The authors greatly appreciate the contributions of Totti Ko nno la and Karel Haegeman from the European commission DG Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Studies to revising the paper
Design/methodology/approach This introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special issue.
All contributions had in common that they were calling for appropriate forms of FTA to support
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
Having led the former Swiss contribution to PASTILLE (EESD-FP5; Promoting Action for Sustainability Through Indicators at Local Level in Europe), INTELCITIES (IST-FP6) and REFORM (Rok-FP6),
Mitigation of Climate change, WGIII Contribution to the IPCC AR4, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge and New york, NY, chapter 13, Box 13.7, p. 776, available at:
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
tracing emerging irreversibilities The basic claim is that a contribution to the understanding of the emergence of technological paths can be expected by understanding the role of emerging irreversibilities in technological development.
bresearch contributions on nanoparticles, clusters, nanotubes, nanocrystals, nanolayers, and macromolecules surrounded either by gases, liquids or solids, are brought together in this single publication.
new contributions are needed to reinforce qualitative instruments with quality, detailed outputs (visions or scenarios) that can be used as inputs for quantitative tools.
and the think piece contributions, LOTF aimed to cover an extensive range of legal dimensions
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers
political requirements to orientate R&d budgets on the potential contribution of new developments to sustainable development puts some pressure on the TA practitioner.
First, three contributions explore new avenues of how FTA could be conceived in the future by discussing and elaborating theoretical groundings,
Four further contributions analyse concrete cases of advanced FTA practices in areas that are characterised by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty.
These contributions point to possible future directions to be followed by FTA in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.
Tuomi kicks off a set of contributions that look more conceptually at how FTA can contribute to identifying
Vecchiato kicks off a set of four contributions on concrete cases of how FTA is used in addressing compleexit and uncertainty.
The paper aims at a conceptual contribution that builds on several disciplines, ranging from innovation and technology studies to a Bergsonian analysis of creative evolution,
For a critical historical review of key contributions, see Mirowski (2009. 2. Ontological uncertainty has been defined in several different ways by different authors.
What contribution ought FTA to have made to planning and building of the Fukushima plant? Did that happen?
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
but their contribution will draw from a more general repertoire (Nahuis and Van Lente 2008).
and to provide empirical evidence of its contribution to sustain the advantage of the firm over time.
which previous scholars have suggested as the main contribution of foresight to strategic decision-making (van der Hejden et al. 2002;
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
The Maturity Model is an attempt to build FTA's contributions to a structure heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
By‘innovation',we mean a novel technical contribution effectively translated into a successful product or process (i e. commercialisation.
and therefore it contains events that are expected to make an implicit contribution or to become a common base
in addition to events that have the potential for explicit contributions. It provides key areas of science and technology for addressing the challenges,
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.
For such themes with less matching, an out-of-the-box discussion is needed on the contributions that science
where science and technology are expected to make great contribution because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely.
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
They also discuss the contributions foresight can make to the management system at different stages of development (cf.
B a careful selection and engagement of stakeholders considering their potential contribution, their role in developing research policy,
However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
and social science and their contribution to Ireland's society and economy Be more‘‘creative''by moving towards a stronger creative economy that combines arts/humanities
B contribution to increasing the GDP growth rate; B improvement of the structure and increasing competitiveness of the Russian economy;
and B contribution to Russia's national security, including environmental security. The final conclusions made in the course of the study were used to develop
including R&d level, contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding and fixed assets.
‘‘increasing share at global market'',contribution to social development'',competitiveness at domestic markets'',integration to global value chain''.
However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect
and we could not assess the real contribution of these materials. So according to our scale (see section 2) the influence of FS1 on policy-making was indirect.
contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding, fixed assets and others Estimation of resources and risks List
the real contribution of the Delphi study results to policy documents was mostly indirect because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
Research limitations/implications It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports.
and addressing different types of innovation. 9 A good example is the contribution that FTA can provide to policy and decision makers in charge of the prioritisation of alternative technological options.
The different and highly heterogeneous contributions to the 2011 International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis in this area share a common bottom line:
when we compare these contributions with texts published in the 1980s, as for instance the very often cited books of Nelson and Winter 16 and Basalla 17.
As a follow-up of this event we could think on the edition of a proceedings volume containing a collection of the most important contributions
their contribution to the total amount of energy generation is still relatively small. Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies.
Classical Readings and Recent Contributions, The MIT Press, 2004.23 D. Swanson, S. Barg, S. Tyler, H. Venema, S. Tomar, S. Bhadwal, S
feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge; an assessment of the group judgment or view;
In addition, the interplay of the different contributions to achieve the targets becomes more visible. The foreseen outcome of long-term investments or policies, for example, can be visualized
or contributions to the enablers for orientating innovation systems through future scenarios (i e. pros and cons). Our analysis of the case studies listed in Appendix 1 suggests that a variety of modes of futures thinking,
A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
and stated their planned contributions of their programs to the nanotechnology initiative. Over 150 participants and contributors from government, science,
most scientists do not give credit to Drexler's contribution to nanotechnology and instead focus on Feynman as the genius behind the origins of the field 11 (C. Selin, Expectations and the emergence of nanotechnology, science, technology & human values,(2007) 196 220).
In a classical scenario building process participants'contributions are channelled through the scenario building framework. This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach.
Making his contribution at the yearly I-day of Innovation Fig. 10. Element from INFU mini panel vision Deliberative Innovation A day in a life of a Citizen in the Deliberative Innovation Scheme.
In our view the effort put into realising contributions of external actors beyond mereworkshop participationwas fully justified by the diversity of the outcomes.
The value of the contributions of actors from different perspectives was exploited much better than in conventional workshops where participants'contributions are documented by the foresight team.
and technology are making the greatest possible contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality, and national security.
Among the contributions to this discussion, the key conclusion is that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to foresight.
Inspired by sociologists'contributions on national culture, the paper demonstrates that two dimensions of national culture,
and to combine different methods for engaging numerous participants in diverse roles and with different contributions.
The modular foresight design described in Fig. 2 (Section 3) allowed engagement of numerous participants in different roles and with different kinds of contributions.
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Karlsruhe Institute of technology, Karlsruhe, Germany Received 29 february 2008 Introduction The contributions included in this special issue build on material presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
The contribution provides a process outline and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
and sector (i e. the European forest sector) that aimed to create an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-termchallenges of this sector and the identification of gaps and opportunities in wood material science and engineering.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
by Amanatidou and Guy, was a contribution to the above described theme. The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
a methodological experiment'by Havas, is a contribution to the Higher education theme. The paper starts with the assumption that global drivers
the actual contribution of users often remains limited. In this paper we argue that this limitation is to an important extent due to the insufficient or even lacking introduction of the future and future anticipation as components into the user-driven knowledge creation process.
probable futures and to make a relevant and meaningful contribution. The point that we want to raise in this paper,
In the strict sense, crowdsourcing implies an open call for ideas and contributions. In this study however, a large crowd of users within a delineated subpopulation of Flemish DTV-users was addressed.
the actual role and contribution of users is limited often and constrained as the introduction of the future as a component is often insufficient
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