10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.11.008*Corresponding author. E-mail address: jglenn@igc. org (J. C. Glenn. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1064 1069 will lead to a more organized bscience-likeq field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing,
One of the authors (Gordon) found that slowing down the feedback tends to stabilize social systems exhibiting chaotic behavior.
Judgment heuristics is a field that documents some of these irrationalities. One or two examples from Ref. 5 will suffice to make the point:
Thus, these frontiers will serve as important orientation in the elaboration of the second edition of Futures research methodology 2. 1 (CD-ROM) to be published by American Council for the United nations University early in 2005.
He is the innovator of several methods of futures research and author of several books and hundreds of articles dealing with the future research methodology, space, and innovation.
He has written over 100 articles and authored, co-authored, or edited 12 books on the future.
i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
The article presents the background, methodology and results of technology barometer, discusses its impacts on national discussion,
and sometimes even elusive issues and they often seem easier to interpret by the Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 Corresponding author.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 composite indicators to avoid datamanipulation andmisrepresentation 1. OECD publications 1,
and the barometer publications consist of a lot of complementary and comparative data and analysis of considered indicators.
This has raised certain worried reactions in the media after the barometer's publication. Assessments of the younger citizens clearly point out that in the future science
Technology barometer aims at a contribution to related national discussion. Fromthe policy-makers'point of viewthere is a clear demand for an instrument providingwell argued,
Accordingly the three rounds executed have been an important lesson for the authors of barometer, and the publication of the last barometer is assessed to well fulfill transparency requirements of the stakeholders.
Despite the somewhat different premises of these stakeholder groups the barometer concept has proven to be capable of casting some light into the black boxes of innovation system by focusing decision-makers attention to core subjects,
Wide interest in the technology barometer is indicated e g. by numerous articles in newspapers and professional journals.
and barometer type scoreboards and publications. With regard to the development of international comparisons the conclusions for the moment could be that at this stage it is important to let all flowers bloom in this field.
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 Corresponding author. E-mail address: kerstin. cuhls@isi. fraunhofer. de (K. Cuhls.
As there is not a single methodology for searching procedures, the methods contained quantitative methods like bibliometrics as well as qualitative approaches like workshops, expert interviews, internet and qualitative literature searches.
Literature was analysed. Experts were identified and interviewed in order to find the most promising topics in research and technology for the next 10 to 15 years or even further in the future.
According to the key words, literature from the Web of Science was counted on the one hand and qualitatively analysed on the other hand 9,
The (internet, literature and other) searches and first selection processes were complemented by expert interviews and informal talks to arrive at an impression of the importance and potential impact of the huge number of topics under consideration.
The online survey is a contribution to the assessment phase, but cannot be a static selection mechanism for BMBF (see also 11).
When this article is written, most of the results are published not, therefore only the spectrum of the broader fields can be mentioned. 3. 5. Integration
from the current point of view, there are already some contributions. 5. Preliminary assessment and outlook Until the end,
Copenhagen K, Denmark a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
While methodological approaches are covered well in the academic literature, less attention has been paid to studying the use, impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making.
This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature
and international organisations 1. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 This article does not represent any official opinion of the European Environment Agency,
but reflects the personal opinion of the authors only. Part of the analysis presented in this paper is based on two internal reports 3. We would like to acknowledge the work of Tom Ling
Finally we would like to thank the reviewers and editors of this special issue for their helpful comments on earlier versions of this article.
Corresponding author. E-mail address: axel. volkery@eea. europa. eu (A. Volkery. 1 See for more information the website:
& Social Change Methodological approaches to scenario planning are covered well in the academic literature. Their use and impacts in the realm of public policy is treated,
This article aims to contribute to this discussion through a review of what we call the evaluative scenario literature,
introducing a pool of 52 literature pieces that deal with one or several aspects of using scenario planning 2. This article merges the findings from this review with the results from a workshop with environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers.
Our analysis is informed predominantly by a focus on scenario planning in environmental policy and other environmental relevant policy fields.
Process is as important as the product 7. The remainder of this article is organised as follows:
and Section 6 synthesizes implications for the future development of the evaluative scenario literature. 2. Functions of scenario planning in the policy-making process The scenario planning literature highlights a wide range of decision support functions 8,
Notwithstanding the fact that many strategic policy documents extend their validity beyond legislative cycles (take the case of national sustainable development strategies for example) a short-term,
These questions guided our review of the available literature 2 . While numerous alternative methodologies exist for future strategic planning,
we limited ourselves mainly to literature on scenario planning, because scenarios provide a potentially very attractive approach to addressing uncertainty and complexity.
Furthermore, the focus of our review was on literature that explicitly attempts to evaluate scenario planning approaches,
To identify relevant literature a number of experts were asked for suggestions. Indexes and the reference lists from these initial items were used to find relevant earlier and subsequent literature.
A narrow focus on evaluative scenario literature was kept, but the aim was to be inclusive with regard to what was included under this heading.
Nevertheless, the work included seems to provide a reasonable survey of the main themes in the literature.
when using scenario planning. 3. Synthesizing the available evaluative scenario literature 3. 1. Types of evaluative scenario studies The literature attempting to assess the impacts of scenarios employs different types of evaluative methods.
the authors examine two UK industries, water supply and IT consulting, and find that scenario use correlates with increased profit and return on capital 28.
and policy-makers the authors conclude that new approaches are necessary to increase the relevance and impact of foresight exercises 31.
however, rather slightly, confirming insights from the policy analysis literature that it is very difficult to change core belief systems in the short term.
Drawing from the private sector literature, using scenarios to address the challenges facing firms can easily fail for another reason:
which they deviate from the practice described in the case study literature. For instance, deductive approaches to scenario development are used commonly.
Much of this literature highlights the need for consensus on the scenario axes in order to foster a common basis of understanding.
The project nonetheless proceeded without consensus by producing multiple publications that treated the axes in different ways.
the authors argue, and extend the scenario building process to introduce seemingly paradoxical elements to force a sensitivity analysis on the assumptions underlying claims of inconsistency 36.
but our review did not provide the space. 3. 4. Differences between public and private sector applications Much of the literature on scenario theory
Difficulties in applying traditional scenario methods among the heterogeneous stakeholders public sector scenario exercises must engage are reported also elsewhere in the literature 17.
and extend the findings from our literature review, we organised an information exchange with thirty practitioners.
and our own literature review 2. Scenario exercises are used often as ameans of collecting and synthesizing complex information
The literature discusses the notion of scenarios often being hollow diamonds that sparkle alluringly but fail to contain real value to the decision-making process 35.
Findings presented in this article are thus necessarily preliminary. Scenario planning is geared more towards indirect forms of decision support in the early phases of the policy cycle,
The literature does not report too many differences between public and private sector applications. But scenario practitioners often confirm that the heterogeneous nature of objectives
While this need has been recognized in the literature, a more systematic debate around options for the better institutional embedding of those approaches is still largely missing 12.
where the practice and literature has been flourishing in recent years, but there will also never be a standard approach.
There are important claims in the literature about scenario's ability to affect the cognition of individuals and groups by reducing overconfidence,
in Decision making, Millennium Project publication, 2001, download at: www. millennium-project. org/millennium/applic-exsum. html (accessed 10/02/09). 30 P. C. Light, The Four Pillars Of high Performance:
or co-authored several contributions to academic journals and books on these topics. Teresa Ribeiro heads the Strategic Futures Group of the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.
She has authored co several scenario and foresight publications at the European and international level. Teresa has worked in environmental policy issues for over 20 years
t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history:
Despite this belief, almost all Foresight implied wider dimensions Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 Corresponding author.
succinct article by The british politician Enoch Powell 8: his view is universal, timeless and has never been surpassed
more Inclusive foresight All of the above expectations require contributions to Foresight to be made from a wider range of participants (than the conventional expert community),
Metaphorical and theoretical descriptions of what are known as behavioural typologies abound in the literature: many are too complex to implement in the scale
Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Denis Loveridge and Penny Street, and the Emerald Group Publishing, for their permission to use significant extracts from their paper‘Inclusive foresight'in‘Foresight:
Reprint edition, Chichester: Wiley 1994.19 W. Ulrich, Critical heuristics of social systems design, European Journal of Operational Research 31 (3)( 1987) 276 283.20 M. B. L
f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 24 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 17 july 2009 Potentially breakthrough science
This article focuses on the preparation and content of what we term co-evolutionary scenarios those
in interaction with various societal actors. 2 This term was created by the author for the purposes of the project,
and was led by the author. 1223 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 There is increasing recognition that innovation emergence is a nonlinear process,
Against this background I propose that there is a clear gap in the literature so far regarding the shifting natures of selection environments
with little or no focus on the actual shaping dynamics on the innovation journey in the literature.
The authors suggest to acknowledge and embrace these dynamics of selection environments but go no further.
so as to address the other main gap in the literature: how does eventual stabilization occur? For controlling our speculations of actions
The co-evolutionary scenario approach is a contribution to the growing field of socio-technical scenarios 3. Other members of the family include regime transition scenarios14,
but important, contribution to this family by combining concentric and multilevel approaches through emphasizing co-evolution.
through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.
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To cite this article: Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262272 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262272 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
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The authors analyse the strategy processes of the Danish technical research council and the Danish energy research programme and find that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved with a better understanding of the traditions
However as a result of the critical and systemic assessment of the process the*Corresponding author. Email: ozcan. saritas@mbs. ac. uk ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262272 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014 916 Editorial authors conclude that the short-term success of the policy impact was at the expense of mediumtt long-term impact
what policy developments have taken place after to the publication of foresight results. The exercise has identified through its panels about 6 10 focal competence areas and, for each of these,
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To cite this article: Per Dannemand Andersen & Mads Borup (2009) Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 917-932, DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262280 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262280 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
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Our analysis makes a departure in the contemporary foresight literature and the discipline of strategy.
Based on this it is the aim of the article to investigate how foresight exercises can be improved
publication rates and citation indices. Using foresight the focus is shifted from science-internal quality terms
and journal articles have provided lists of foresight methods and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983;
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
even though by some authors the term‘foresight'has also been used regarding prospective thinking in corporate strategy.
Literature describes how foresight has changed scope since the 1960s from the first generation of technology-oriented forecasting to the current third-or fourth-generation activities that also include wider social dimensions (Reger 2001;
Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),
In this article we anticipate that the literature has refined a more view on what strategy is than on
To some extent this issue is discussed also in the strategy literature. In the 1990s Henry Mintzberg, in a book and two papers (Mintzberg 1994a c), argued that strategic planning focuses too much on analyses
It is beyond the scope of this paper to discuss in depth the relationship between all the traditions within the academic strategy literature.
To these authors there seems to be a relationship between Martin's definition of foresight
numbers of publications and patents, citation indices, peer review, etc. 3. Case studies 3. 1. Research councils and national research programmes Research councils and national research programmes account for a smaller percentage of total research funding than direct government funding of universities and research institutions,
The council's annual contribution to the national budget negotiations, another strategic aspect of its activities, was coordinated with the 5-year plans.
The authors came primarily from public research institutiions and also from industry. They were hand-picked by the council as experienced, visionary researchers,
The final Strategy plan was a publication of 28 pages with many pictures, brief passages of text and boxes containing short examples of the use of science and technology research and quotes from well-known and highleeve industry representatives.
A professional designer and a PR company were hired also to work on the final publication. Contrary to the earlier 5-year plans, the Strategy plan 2003 2007 was targeted primarily at politicians,
the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.
3) Publication of a final version of the strategy plan;(4) Planning for specific actions and follow-up activities (roadmaps, etc..
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 929 Although there is a rich and growing application-oriented literature on foresight in science
Acknowledgements The work behind this article received funding from the Danish Social science Research council through the project,‘Strategies and identity of science a study of strategy processes in national research programmes'.
'Furthermore, the authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable comments and suggestions from two anonymous referees. Notes on contributors Per Dannemandandersen is head of the Innovation systems
Nordich2energy foresight complementary contribution of expert views and formal analyses. In Proceedings from the EU US Scientific Seminar:
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To cite this article: Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel & Michael Keenan (2009) Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
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as well as to the immediate implementation phase after the publication of its results. By doing so, it covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span,
research system 1. Introduction In 2005, Luxembourg began to embark upon a‘national'technology foresight exercise, with the primary aim of identifying newresearch domains for the National research Fund (FNR) to support*Corresponding author.
and advice of an international group of eight science policy experts (including one of this paper's authors) through a one day workshop.
no re-alignment of resources in money or kind by other actors is knownto the authors.
owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level
Second, it is clear that a forward-looking process like foresight needs to be underpinned by sufficient and appropriate‘objectivised'data, e g. publication data, statistics on the national R&d environment, reports on the state of economy, environment or society
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To cite this article: K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
10.1080/09537320903262314 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262314 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
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The aim was to develop, in a participatory process, a comprehensive strategic framework as well as concrete proposals for*Corresponding author.
second on the range of impacts that have been assigned to foresight in the corresponding literature, and third on the time lag,
in order to find their way into the final panel and strategy documents. In other words implicit agendas and objectives had to be made more explicit to provide the basis for the joint definition of future challenges, fields of action and kickoff projects;
A key role in this negotiation process was played obviously by the panel chairs (in accepting suggested initiatives on new draft panel documents) and by the vice-mayor's office (in accepting proposals on draft versions of the final
strategy document. The inter-panel meetings were crucial in this respect, because on the one hand participants felt obliged to achieve a consensus on initiatives to be suggested for the RTI-strategy,
Reference is made regularly to the strategy to lend legitimacy to new initiatives and document their compatibility.
it has acquired an official status. The official and political character of the document also has its downsides,
for instance by the reference made to the strategy documents in new initiatives. However, it is too early to say
such as the need to avoid politically contentious proposals in the strategy document. In the end, the strategy document becomes official policy.
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To cite this article: Stefanie Jenssen (2009) Foresight and governance: how good can it get?
10.1080/09537320903262397 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262397 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
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The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation
the project leadership resolved issues of stakeholder interests and futures literacy before they received their contributions.
and the scope of their contributions in visioning projects. The article contributes to discussions of inclusive foresight by showing how stakeholder image construction poses questions of power relationships in municipal long term governance.
Keywords: foresight; visioning; municipal planning; stakeholder participation Introduction Foresight is among the most widespread and accepted forms of organised future-oriented activities today. 1 As a widely applied method for dialogical future thinking,
This article focuses on the question: How did this particular image of young people as stakeholders influence their involvement and the final results of their participation in the project?
the discussion will highlight how such an image creation can influence the participatory potential of social groups up to the point where we might question the added value of their contributions.
such as scenario planning. 4 In foresight literature visioning is part of a more complex process, involving not only the creation of a desired future picture,
In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method, as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
'The rather scarce literature on municipal visioning has been criticised for its lack of a consistent theory or method.
As the case of a municipal visioning project discussed in this article illustrates, visioning as a form of community participation does not yet follow commonly recognised principles and processes.
Most literature today sees reflexivity as a positive value in itself, a practice to aspire to
This article is based on the collection of specific moments in which the idea of assumed shared values collided with the ideal of community engagement. 9 The following discussion of how an image of schoolchildren as stakeholders
and their contributions were considered important for how this future picture should be developed. At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.
The project proposal written by the municipal administrative leadership underlined the powerful position of the political representatives in the vision project:
however, shows that the collection of young people's contributions was preceded by the construction of a specific image of them as stakeholders.
i e. their contributions to the vision project. This paper argues that constructing a specific image of young people as stakeholders points towards a dilemma of inclusive foresight that cannot be rectified by specific management and process principles.
when it came to their contributions their present social status was not what the project leaders were interested in.
The municipal project organisers had to ensure that the contributions were in line with the desired outcome:
Through both image construction and the pre-processual framing of contributions, the project leaders thus ensured that the future ideas contributed by the young were well within the possible and the desirable.
while their contributions had to be framed by certain directed preconditions. Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!
Social Living their future lives in Lundal Concentrate on issues of well-being in society! Ask your parents and neighbours!
and non-reflexive The contributions would need narrative structure and other actors'input too fantastic ideas will be erased!
The project leaders might have been a bit hasty in declaring their contributions as nonreflective and unstructured. According to vision project members participating in school lessons at one college in Lundal,
the scope of their possible contributions was limited clearly through the preconditions they received from the project leadership.
The administrative and political leadership's construction of a specific stakeholder image and the preconditioning of the young people's contributions is a good example of exactly this performative way of exercising rhetoric and representative power in a municipal planning process.
This paper is a contribution to the discussion about the relationship between foresight and the democratic challenges of good governance and long-term planning.
the contribution of young people eventually mirrored existing political programmes. The final question is:‘‘How could this be different?'
Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Brita Staxrud Brenna, Beate Elvebakk, Jon Hovland and the anonymous referees for their valuable comments regarding this paper,
schools and publications that discuss foresight as practice and as a‘school of thought'(Van Notten 2005,5).
Verification of the project can be provided by contacting the author. 11. Proposal sent by Lundal's head of administration to the community council, September 2005, p. 7. 12.
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
'In this article this argument is extended, including the aspect that participation is preconstructed often because a certain image of a group of participants forms their contributions and the expectations regarding their participation.
References Beck, U.,W. Bonss, and C. Lau. 2003. The theory of reflexive modernisation: problematic, hypotheses and research programme.
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Garfinkel, H. 1967. Studies in ethnomethodology. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-hall. Genus, A. 2006. Rethinking constructive technology assessment as democratic, reflective discourse.
The state and contribution of international foresight: new challenges. Paper presented at EU US seminar: the role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities, 13 14 may 2002, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
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