The foresight tradition that has become quite prominent particularly in public policy takes into account the interactive character of innovation
Under the headline of Adaptive foresight (AF) it combines elements from the foresight and adaptive planning traditions.
Several interconnected research traditions have transformed our understanding of innovation processes and embraced notions of complexity, uncertainty and interactivity. 1 Even if certain 1 In particular evolutionary and Neo-Schumpeterian economics as well as Social Studies of Technology have made important contributions 2. 464 E. A Eriksson,
The foresight tradition has embraced some of these insights. In particular, it has stressed the role of interaction
because priority-setting in RTD policy was directly 3 We here have in mind the UK foresight tradition as begun by Martin and Irvine 7. Today, of course,
More normatively oriented, functional innovation systems approaches take a different stance on innovation system analysis 46.25 The methodology outlined in this section is largely based on the so called Shell/GBN tradition 47.
It is also useful to start 27 These criteria for good framework scenarios are developed based on a set of criteria often used in the Shell/GBN tradition
In contrast to the longer tradition of impact assessment of Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Berlin University of Technology, Faculty
which has a long tradition only in the USA 1. However, the United kingdom started with some cost-benefit analyses of regulations in the 1980s.
there has been a longer tradition of regulatory impact assessments in the context of technology assessment 6. A rather new
also in order to foster the development of new markets by Blind et al. 8. Besides the tradition in regulatory impact assessment,
we have to mention the other tradition of science and technology foresight exercises as instruments for governments,
Based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises, we define regulatory foresight as strategic activity undertaken by governments
the evaluators noted the Swedish tradition of expecting people always to represent the organisations to
they are oriented action (unlike e g. academic papers in the tradition of futures studies; and participatory, that is, they involve the representatives of relevant stakeholders,
disciplines and intellectual traditions and paradigms and this we believe is consistent with the dynamism of transition to a knowledge-based economy;
Koivisto et al. examine how traditions of risk assessment are being adapted to the new more agile and greater uncertainties context of FTA.
Therefore, we may assume that strategic planning in infrastructure sectors could substantially profit from insights gathered in this tradition.
Hence, somehow the link between these two research traditions is in essence present, but in practice the researches, research projects
It is thus interesting to explore how these research traditions can contribute to each other. In particular, the aim of this paper is to examine the possibilities of integrating systematic risk assessment with interactive foresight
On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:
Development of an integrated approach that combines the strengths of FTA and risk assessment traditions is not,
research traditions and concrete projects the authors are familiar with. The increasing mutual understanding, and the better utilization of the partly overlapping, complementary competence and knowledge bases, are among the objectives of the exercise.
o Section 2 discusses the main research traditions contributing to the paper. o Section 3 presents the concrete projects in the light
which we have chosen to be the risk assessment focus in this paper an important area with the well-established and relatively long risk assessment tradition,
and technical risk analysis methods lies perhaps mostly on people's experience of using different methods in these two parallel traditions.
For instance the multitude of the methods in both traditions may be difficult to see: risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method,
and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment
and risk assessment traditions will be profitable at least the integration process would be easiest to carry on in this environment,
and risk assessment traditions in emerging risk assessment would then help in applying the more contingent and holistic approach in more fixed and short time risk assessment exercises.
Here the use of resilience engineering would certainly benefit from the traditions the foresight tradition would offer.
which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
However, there is no uniform approach as diverging political and administrative cultures as well as overall traditions and styles of policy-making and administration will heavily influence the design of institutional arrangements.
and to contribute to as many themes as they wish 2. Acceptance of all participants as opinion givers this raises issues for the tradition of expertise,
and the Danish energy research programme and find that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved with a better understanding of the traditions
if we have a better understanding of the traditions and new challenges faced by the research councils.
if we have a better understanding of the traditions and new challenges faced by research councils. Furthermore, it is the aim to investigate
and M. Borup 2. 2. Foresight approaches and methods Whereas the rationale for foresight gets its legitimacy from the tradition of evolutionary econoomi foresight,
It is beyond the scope of this paper to discuss in depth the relationship between all the traditions within the academic strategy literature.
However, foresight seen in the light of three of the traditions are described in the following:(
if we understand better the existing strategy traditions and current challenges faced by these institutions.
This problem might be mitigated by adapting language to fit the traditions of the research arena.
) 6. Slaughter (2004,92 4) sees the development of Critical Future Studies (CFS) following the traditions of STS in‘challenging the inevitability
but the need to recognise the traditions of technology assessment, forecasting and other dimensions of futures studies remains important
and also by European traditions in R&i collaboration and related policies and infrastructures. In consequence, one can observe the evolution of different configurations entailing different forms and directions of organisation, inter-organisational research collaboration, use of research policy instruments,
This knowledge management has to confront the challenges created by FTA's call for engagement across different disciplines, research traditions,
Such FTA calls for crossing the boundaries of disciplines, research traditions, and professional activities FTA then necessarily involves knowledge management
and comes in many‘‘flavours'',drawing on many different research traditions and methods. Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
Politics, tradition and aesthetics in the modern social order. Cambridge: Polity Press. Bell, A. 1876.
Tradition & Discovery, The Polanyi Society Periodical XXV, no. 1: 29 42. Mirowski, P. 2009.
The‘rational expectations'tradition in economics, for example, calculates the optimal forecast based on the‘reality'of expectations.
and practitioners from different methodological traditions is crucial at least at three major stages of FTA PROCESSES:
and practitioners from different methodological traditions at each stage. 5. 2. Overcoming long-term barriers Overcoming barriers such as the lack of identified good practices,
and linguistic traditions that permeate our work 27. This means that practice, such as scenario practice, is rooted in a particular moment and place.
Despite these different traditions, both countries used FTA to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology. 3. Future-oriented technology analysis of nanotechnology in the US
The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes Per Dannemand Andersen*,Lauge Baungaard Rasmussen Department for Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet 424,2800 Lyngby
Foresight Governance National culture Policy making A b s T R A c T This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes.
The decisive context in Keenan and Popper's work is differences in political tradition: established democracies (as found in Northwest Europe and North america),
and Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) and newly independent states (NIS), on the other hand 3. However, Havas et al. do proceed not further into any systematic characterisation of the two traditions.
This paper starts with the somewhat ambiguous concepts of national political tradition and national governance culture as decisive contexts for analysing
(b) Danish traditions and styles for governmental long range planning and policy making, and (c) Danish experiences with technology foresight.
The Globalisation Strategy and the Research2015 process are two attempts to combine the strong Danish tradition for political compromises, negotiations and stakeholder inclusion with evidence-and expertise-based prospective elements.
and discussed. 2. National traditions and governance culture as context for foresight In this section, we introduce a conceptual framework of national traditions
and governance culture for analysing foresight and priority setting in science, technology and innovation policies. 2. 1. Sociologists'and anthropologists'perception of culture Cultural differences and styles are very hard to quantify,
Second, the strong traditions for central negotiation at the industrial level in Denmark between employer and employee associations for instance about productivity enhancing means make it more appropriate and convenient for the Danish government to include the industrial partners in the process of discussing
and naturally, make some simplifying assumptions about political traditions. This simplification leads to a categorisation of countries into three distinguishing political traditions:(
1) established democracies, as found in Northwest Europe and North america, (2) third wave democracies, as found in Southern and Eastern europe and South america,
Hofstede's power distance dimension corresponds only to some extent to Keenan and Popper's differentiation of political traditions.
sociocultural traditions of power distance and uncertainty avoidance than foresight traditions in neighbouring countries. 3. The Danish context in relation to foresight The intention of this section is to sketch elements of Danish‘‘style
''foresight based on the socioeconomic and cultural features described above. 3. 1. Danish traditions and cultural context of governmental foresight and long range planning As history and cultural context are important,
Second, Denmark‘s tradition of basing policy decisions on analyses of available knowledge is weak.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 10‘Denmark has had never strong traditions for basing political decisions on accessible knowledge as opposed to Sweden, for instance.
Denmark has established a well tradition of policy evaluation, which also includes science and innovation policies. The combination of the widespread use of policy evaluations and the DBT's parliamentary technology assessment might have constituted a platform for policy making that would make the need for foresight less urgent.
In conclusion, historically, Denmark has had a weak tradition of applying foresight and similar systematic, forwardloookin processes in national-level policy making.
in addition to differences in industrial structure, academic traditions and so on. Our findings also have implications for the academic community.
The concept is based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises. Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
FTA has a long tradition in creating spaces for dialogue and in engaging different actors to confront views,
Swiss technology policy There is a long tradition in Switzerland of refraining from directly funding business firms for innovation activities.
) This tradition is based on a wide Spyros Arvanitis is a senior researcher at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and a lecturer in economics at the ETH Zurich.
Due to a long disciplinnar tradition of research and learning in the academic world, huge efforts of mind-set revision and transformation are needed,
Certain traditions in the FTA family of approaches, particuularl technology assessment, have taken the reorientatiio of technological trajectories and innovation activities as an explicit goal.
FTA PROCESSES have a long tradition of creating spaces for dialogue and for engaging different actors to confront views,
First, IPRM springs from a roadmapping tradition and thus places significant emphasis on the process and systematic form of information.
especially when a tradition is lacking in transnational collaboration, in applying particippator approaches and in working with longerteer planning,
individualisation and disintegration of traditions, staging his own biography, increasing significance of virtual communities Dynaxity (dynamics+complexity):
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011
