Environment

Changing environment (9)
Climate change (108)
Ecology (48)
Environment (463)
External environment (29)
Institutional environment (4)
Legal environment (6)
Natural resources (93)
Water management (16)

Synopsis: Environment:

In the paper entitled dthe role of Scanning in Open Intelligent Systemst, Patton describes the system in place in SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE to scan the environment

and hence more powerful basis for informing strategic decisions because it stresses both the need to adapt to changes in the environment

environmental and ethical concerns related to scientific and technological developments has led to a strengthening of participatory and constructive approaches 8, 9. Here,

Niche Management 25 and Transition Management 26.14 FANTASIE Forecasting and Assessment of New Transport Technologies and Systems and their Impact on the Environment,

environmental and social systems, in: M. Weber, J. Hemmelskamp (Eds. Towards Environmental Innovation systems, Springer, Berlin, 2005, pp. 33554 27 B. Wittrock, S. Lindström, De stora programmens tid:

Forskning och energi i svensk politik Time of the Big Programmes: Research and Energy in Swedish Politics, Akademilitteratur, Stockholm, 1984.28 K. M. Weber, Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making, in:

Towards Environmental Innovation systems, Springer, Berlin, 2005.39 K. M. Weber, K. Kubeczko, K.-H. Leitner, K. Whitelegg,

He has published in journals such as Journal of Business strategy and the Environment; Journal of Cleaner Production;

but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,

Threats to health, safety and the environment can be identified by searches both in the patent data for 501 K. Blind/Technological forecasting

but especially those with possible impacts on health, safety, the environment and on the functioning of markets require an adjustment of the regulatory framework.

like the environment or in services 46.3 In contrast to the other obstacles, like technical or cost problems,

and secrecy of individuals and groups from the intrusion of ill-intentioned network intruders. 2010 4. 88 4. 17 3. 13 1. 86 4. 28 Realisation of an environment in

or using portable terminals. 2009 3. 38 2. 97 2. 32 2. 04 3. 13 Improvement of the data communication environment and widespread use of telecommuting support services,

and standardisation as an important form of self regulation with the former type being more effective for achieving health, safety and environmental aspects,

environmental and safety aspects addressed in scientific publications or patents, and even the identification of stakeholders, especially companies,

The environment had to change and be realigned so as to accommodate to the new trajectory and its promises.

while modelling emergence on the basis of interactions of actors and their environment. Path creation acknowledges agency in the form of‘mindful deviation'and the mobilising of resources by actors leading to the creation of new paths 39.

Developing an Integrated Policy Approach to Science, Technology, Risk and the Environment, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2005, pp. 45 66.24 S. K. Kassicieh, S. T. Walsh

Human choice and climate change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, Columbus, 1998.47 R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente, Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies:

Currently he is at Utrecht University, Department of Innovation and Environmental Studies, where he analyzes genetics/genomics based innovation chains and actor strategies in the converging zone of the food and health sectors. 538 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change

as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

not only in terms of the management of health-and environment-related risks, but also in terms of ensuring sustainable development. These two‘pillars',the‘knowledge society'and‘participatory governance',can become the common framework in

This facilitates a greater understanding of the wider environment within which foresight exercises are implemented and the identification of many of the characteristics of emerging knowledge societies

the foresight system's interaction with the wider environment has to be studied in order to identify the factors affecting the success of the whole process.

which in turn call for new organisation forms and working environments. These factors seem to be interlinked with each other in a cycle reinforcing their development.

It calls for the establishment of an environment that encourages risk taking and is characterised by reflexivity

The literature suggests that the emerging knowledge societies are also‘risk societies',characterised by decision-making conducted within an environment of increasingly uncertain or incomplete knowledge.

and society both crucial developments if the emerging knowledge societies are to cope with social, environmental and intellectual complexity.

and impacts (both direct and indirect) and with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment.

An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the wider environment. 547 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

the wider environment also needs to be examined with the same logic in order to identify the factors enhancing specific foresight impacts.

and is affected by, the wider environment in which it operates (Fig. 3b). A conceptual framework of this nature sheds light on the dynamics of foresight programmes and helps identify the principles

The evaluation also highlighted the fact that broader environmental factors can influence the success of a foresight exercise.

thus providing comprehensive lists of criteria and important factors in different conditions and environments. 550 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539

Impact assessment framework wider environment (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta. 551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,

Furthermore, since organisations are isolated not from the environment in which they exist, the cultural context also plays a determining role.

and secondly on those factors in the Wider (External environment likely to induce positive impacts in terms of networking and actors'alignment.

Referring to the Wider (External environment, certain factors can be identified that have to be examined in order to define the degree to which foresight exercises can achieve impacts in networking and actors'alignment.

as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. The model presented in Fig. 3a

thus providing comprehensive lists of criteria and important factors in different conditions and environments. This model can then direct the development of a common impact assessment framework based on the‘logic model'approach.

and the environment of universities is also undergoing fundamental changes. Thus, it is timely to consider alternative futures for them,

to a somewhat limited extent adding to the diversity of the‘ecology'of research actors, too.

23 and that could change the‘ecology'quite radically, e g. in terms of more pronounced variety, as well as new opportunities and rules for co-operation and competition.

as they are becoming‘unfit'to the radically changing environment. Technological changes offer more sophisticated and thus more expensive equipment for conducting research,

Second, universities just as other research actors cannot operate fully isolated from their socioeconomic environment. 26 For these two reasons

capable of renewal and adaptation to the external environment, underpinning both cohesion and competitiveness Strong, flexible innovation systems in the advanced regions,

capable of renewal and adaptation to the external environment, underpinning sustained competitiveness 572 A. Havas/Technological forecasting

and thus devote more intellectual and financial resources to it. 574 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 other internal processes to the ever changing external environment, expressed by the needs of their‘clients':

Tables 3 4 identify major changes in the external environment of universities, and explore the likely features of unchanged

and able to adapt to this new environment Mobility of researchers, competition for talents Only a few‘world-class'EU universities can attract talents from advanced Triad regions A large (r) number of EU universities become attractive for talents from advanced

As both the activities of universities and their environment are undergoing fundamental changes, it is timely to think systematically about their new roles,

and juxtapose that set of features with different environments. In case they want to change the major features of their university

In other words, that would mean keeping the environment as given, and changing their university's own characteristics.

and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region.

Tech. in systems analysis from the Helsinki University of Technology and MSC in environmental economics from the University of Helsinki.

He holds a MSC from Cornell University in Design and Environmental Analysis, and has over 30years of federal government service in Canada.

and potentially also newsgroups or other online collaborative environments. This work is similar in spirit to that of Swanson

and content scoring remains a subjective process. 2. Application to distributed design environments Our purpose in exploring this topic is to better consider the information needs of designers.

Designers may soon be positioned in a new and radically decentralized environment. In this section, the paper explicates the social and technological organizational structures which may permit a new era of open innovation.

rather than simply describing a new and distributed environment, they prescribe the manner in which innovative organizations can create an open and porous environment by

which to participate in this anticipated new mode of innovation. Given the imperative of new conduct in innovation,

it is necessary for responsive organizations to restructure themselves to exploit this knowledge environment. The actual economic and institutional arrangements necessary to create flexible and distributed networks may have been captured in the regional development literature 13.

and infrastructural capabilities to succeed in this emerging environment. In the following paragraphs some ideas about the organization of technological knowledge is described;

this knowledge is coupled with the institutional environment of distributed knowledge production. This review suggests an important avenue for research in this article, and in future research:

creating software solutions to help innovative organizations develop new technologies within an open innovation environment. Knowledge is structured hierarchically.

that many users of technology roadmapping exist in a vertically integrated environment where a few big players have the interests and capabilities to assist in technological coordination.

Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20. A hierarchical random graph is a succinct recipe for generating

These include a metabolic network, a grassland ecology, and a social network of terrorists. Key attributes of the network include average degree k, average clustering coefficient (C),

Like the network ecology this sampled network has a relatively low degree. However, the complete Wikipedia content network probably has a much higher degree perhaps a degree as high as 10.

The network is therefore similar to the grasslands ecology network which has previously been shown to be disassortative 21.4.2.

b Department Urban Water management Research at Eawag, Switzerland c Institute of environmental Engineering at ETH Zurich, Switzerland d Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems

the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF) and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region (Kiesental.

new solutions to urban water management are discussed more widely today. Sanitation services are provided mostly by public organizations

Today a balanced consideration of environmental, social and economic aspects is necessary 16. Strategic planning processes are a key for determining the appropriateness,

and tested in a transdisciplinary research project that empirically focused on The swiss urban water management sector. Following the model of action research 56,

and weaknesses of the prevailing technical and organizational setup to address claims from customers, public, regulatory bodies and the affected environment 62.

context factors like economic, demographic and settlement development, future political culture and environmental regulations. They select the most influencing

this can only occur at the expense of a third party (e g. by entailing substantial environmental impacts).

I) The high quality of life region with a majority of citizens favoring a sound environment.

The situation gets worse with increased pressures from climate change like floods and droughts. This also leads to a decrease in farming activity.

the downturn scenario showed an increase of the environmental impacts of untreated wastewater overflows during heavy rain events.

Environmental impact ranked only second in their priorities. In contrast, the industry's stakeholders favor besides low tariffs, additionally low levels of bureaucracy as well as voice and participation in the associations decision board. 4. 4. Exploring the trade-off landscape The virtual future stakeholder groups

Climate change effects with extreme weather events might impact the receiving river and considerably increase the cost characteristics of the centralized system.

However, we have strong indications that certain lessons learned within the RIF processes have a much wider application domain than urban water management.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1150 1162 Acknowledgements The project Regional infrastructure foresight was funded by The swiss National science Foundation within the National research Program 54 Sustainable development of the Built Environment.

Human choice and climate change resources and technology, Battelle Press, Columbus, 1998.13 M. S. Jørgensen, U. Jørgensen, C. Clausen, The social shaping approach to technology foresight

, The concept of sustainable urban water management, Water Sci. Technol. 35 (9)( 1997) 3 10.17 D. Dominguez, W. Gujer, Evolution of a wastewater treatment plant challenges traditional design concepts, Water Res. 40 (7

Pract. 2 (3)( 1989) 307 331.36 S. S. Gezelius, K. Refsgaard, Barriers to rational decision-making in environmental planning, Land use Policy 24 (2

analysis. Power tools series, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 2005.62 E. Störmer, Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,

Willi Gujer is a professor for urban water management at The swiss Federal Institute of technology Zurich and a member of the directorate of Eawag.

Max Maurer is head of the Department of Urban Water management and is a lecturer at Swiss Federal Institute of technology Zurich.

risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES. The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes;

development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),

including its environmental, social and economic perspectives. The High level Expert Group appointed by the European commission crystallized these trends by defining foresight as follows 5:

sense making and decision making as well as diffusion/acting on environment and interaction with other actors in real world. 1164 R. Koivisto et al./

and how it may change the business or the environment around us. A paradigm shift and interesting methodological developments are seen for Technology assessment too:

Risk assessment and risk management concepts can refer e g. to risk assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial use 12,

there was a growing public awareness and concern regarding the threat to people and to the environment due to industrial activities.

the process, the technology, people, the environment and so on should be known as fully as possible. The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,

as a result of the method development. 3 3. 3. Climate change adaptation and risk assessment (CES) A joint project concerning the climate change adaptation in Finland

and consequences of the climate change affecting the Nordic energy production system are developed in the project. The risk assessment procedure is developed at the first stage of a case study concerning Nordic hydropower production 37.

Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan and changes to the normal seasonal routines can be noticed;

Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.

Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.

Besides natural science kinds of changes climate change poses also social changes in the society. Political decisions are affected by the climate change.

In the future, for instance, the need of energy and population migration may be different. Hence, it is also important that social aspects are addressed in the risk assessment procedure.

or climate change will pose to the society. In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment.

and risk assessment traditions will be profitable at least the integration process would be easiest to carry on in this environment,

Information on changes in the environment in business and in the society in general is crucial for both FTA and risk assessment.

Risk analysis methods and climate change scenarios were integrated. How case studies contributed to risk management methodology? The results show that the integration of proactive risk assessment

The new framework help companies to create climate change strategies. How case studies contributed to risk resilience thinking?

Index methods Environmental risk analysis Totally over 60 reported risk analysis methods Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,

but a socio-technical complex system also interacting with its environment and the whole society. The focus has shifted from positivist

and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards broader concerns including the whole innovation process with its environmental, social and economic perspectives.

Technology assessment for managers, Routledge, London, 1998.12 R. Fairman, C. D. Mead, P. W. Williams, Environmental risk assessment approaches, experience and information sources, European Environment

2002, s. 291 303.24 N. Wessberg, R. Molarius, J. Seppälä, S. Koskela, J. Pennanen, Environmental risk analysis for accidental emissions, J. Chem.

ISPIM, 2008.37 R. Molarius, N. Wessberg, J. Keränen, J. Schabel, Creating a climate change risk assessment procedure hydropower plant case, Finland,

44 H. H. Willis, Using Risk analysis to Inform Intelligence Analysis. RAND Infrastructure, Safety and Environment,,

45 Futuríbles, THE Strategic Environment for Companies: Guideline Scenarios General Summary, 2004 http://www. futuribles. com/pdf/Strategicenvironment. pdf. Read 28th 2009.

She graduated in environmental engineering (M. Sc. 1996) and in environmental policy (M. Sc. 1997, Lic.

Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for wellbeing of the aging society and for cleaner environment.

and strategic perspectives on howwell the Finnish innovation environment is positioned now and how competitive it is assessed

and methodology Technology barometer is a societal indicator instrument with a strong emphasis on the innovation environment.

The purpose of a technology barometer is to give data of how favorable and competitive the Finnish innovation environment is assessed to be now and in the future.

The indicators of societies fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development are social values, environmental responsibility and environmental systems.

social cohesion in the society in question, environmental protection actions taken by businesses and authorities, and the actual state of the environment.

In conclusion, an indicator study of the technology barometer comprises 12 sub-indicators providing an index-type key value indicating the state of technology at a given time.

The fourth part in the survey sets out assessments of sustainable development focusing on environmental threats the state of the environment,

and action taken by the authorities. Indicator-based information being backward looking by nature, the survey supplements the barometer by providing a forwardloookin element to complete the overall view.

the technology barometer has proven to be capable of casting additional light on bottlenecks and problem areas within the national innovation environment in Finland.

Political decision-making takes place in an environment characterized by ambiguity of problems and a multitude of conflicting interests between different stakeholders,

In order to respond to the systemic challenges of the innovation policy environment, there is also a need to increase the proactive and future-oriented elements in technology barometer.

Index (Economic Freedom Network) Economic Sentiment Indicator (EC) Internal Market Index (EC) Business Climate Indicator (EC) Environment Environmental sustainability Index (World

Economic Forum) Wellbeing Index (Prescott-Allen) Sustainable development Index (UN) Synthetic Environmental Indices (Isla M.)Eco-indicator 99 (pre consultants) Concern about environmental problems

(Parker) Index of Environmental Friendliness (Puolamaa) Environmental policy Performance Index (Adriaanse) Globalization Global Competitiveness Report (World Economic Forum) Transnationality Index (UNCTAD) Globalization

cohesion Health Income distribution Employment Equality between sexes 3. 4. 2. Environmental management 3. 4. 3. State of the environment Quality of air Quality

. Sustainable development 4. 5. 1. Factors threatening the environment 4. 5. 2. The state of the environment and the actions of the authorities Appendices Content of the Technology barometer Key results Competence and knowledge

7. Health research and medicine 8. Infrastructure technology, urbanisation and environmental development 9. Environmental protection technology and sustainable development 10.

quality of life, the economy, the environment etc. The topics that were chosen and identified during the search phase should be checked and by a broader information base,

But in detail, there were differences when looking at the relevancy for economy, relevancy for the quality of life, relevancy for the environment, and so on...

Energy from the environment: energy harvesting is known already, but limited. New ideas are expected that make it possible to harvest the energy from different environments

and transfer it into miniaturized machines. This is especially necessary for environments which are out of reach (implants,

build in house equipment...Human machine cooperation (firstly called human machine boundary shifts: technological innovations that are linked directly to human beings (inside and outside of the body) need new technologies on the one hand,

Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050

This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature

and international organisations 1. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 This article does not represent any official opinion of the European Environment Agency,

or several aspects of using scenario planning 2. This article merges the findings from this review with the results from a workshop with environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers.

Our analysis is informed predominantly by a focus on scenario planning in environmental policy and other environmental relevant policy fields.

It has been written in the context of the BLOSSOM project of the European Environment Agency. 3 The project aims at building a platform for discussion

evaluation and learning amongst environmental scenario practitioners and policy-makers about new forms of long-term strategic policy-making and their enabling conditions.

9. Ideally, scenario planning helps policy-makers making better sense of changes in their external environment, spotting early warning signals and refining perceptions of existing or emerging problems and corresponding problem-solving strategies 10.

which would start a new cycle. 3 The European Environment Agency is a specialised agency of the European union with the prime task of providing targeted, timely, relevant and reliable data and information on the state and prospects of Europe's environment.

As part of this analysis we organised a two-day international workshop gathering thirty environmental scenario practitioners from governments

and stakeholders of a California water agency and measured participants'increasing understanding of the challenges posed by climate change

Views on climate change changed, however, rather slightly, confirming insights from the policy analysis literature that it is very difficult to change core belief systems in the short term.

This argument is underpinned well by the study of global environmental assessments, which also emphasizes the need for salience,

In summarizing the arguments in the climate change community for and against including probabilities with climate scenarios a key study concludes that probabilities may be useful in some situations,

which incorporated much of the thinking from the Environment Agency's preceding Flood and Coastal Defence Project.

In Sweden, the Swedish Environmental Objectives Council which is responsible for monitoring Sweden's set of long-term environmental quality objectives used a set of four alternative scenarios to generate a range of new,

Another entry point could be Strategic Environmental Assessment. An example can be found in Scotland,

and identifying respective environmental effects 42.5. Discussion of findings The evaluative scenario literature remains nascent, making it difficult to come to an elaborated discussion.

Whether specific foresight units should be located physically within departments for the environment for food, for energy or transport for example,

as in the case of global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the IPCC, work on the systematization of methods

2 European Environment Agency, Looking Back on Looking Forward. A Review Of Evaluative Scenario literature, Technical Report 3/2009, Copenhagen, EEA, 2009.3 R. J. Lempert, S. Hoorens, M. Hallsworth, T. Ling, Looking

A Manual for Assessment Practitioners, forthcoming. 7 B o'Neil, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Y. Garb, Where next with global environmental scenarios?

their development and use, Sub-report 2. 1b of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2. 1 by the U s. Climate change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of energy

, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, 2007.18 J. Rosenhead, Robustness analysis: keeping your options open, in:

towards a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling, Environ. Res. Lett. 3 (2008) 045015.22 W c. Clark, R. B. Mitchell, D. W. Cash, Evaluating the influence of global environmental assessments, in:

R. B. Mitchell, W c. Clark, D. W. Cash, N m. Dickson (Eds. Global Environmental Assessments: Information and Influence, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2006.23 J. Oglivy, E. Smith, Mapping public and private scenario planning:

lessons from regional projects, Development 47 (4)( 2004) 62 72.24 M. B. A. van Asselt, Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk:

L. Wainfan, Presenting Uncertainty About Climate change to Water Resource Managers, 2008, RAND Corporation, TR-505-NSF. 28 R c.

Integrating the Environment for Sustainability, Edgar Elgar Publishing, London, 2008, pp. 114 133.42 Scottish government, National Planning Framework 2 SEA Annex to the Environmental Report:

Axel Volkery, Phd, is a project manager for policy and scenario analysis at the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.

His research interests are integrated environmental assessments, long-term policy analysis and institutional arrangements for effective scenario planning. He has authored

Teresa Ribeiro heads the Strategic Futures Group of the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.

On the other hand there is a growing scepticism about the nano-field regarding the environmental and health risks of nano artifacts

as it lies at the heart of Foresight Environment of knowledge development: 7. Trust between organisers and all participants, even among those whose opinions may not be deemed to be‘influential'8. Establishment of a new balance between participants with special expertise

. Dempster, A self-organizing perspective on planning for sustainability, Thesis for Master of Environmental Studies in Planning, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 1998.21 W. Ulrich, Critical systems heuristics, in:

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