Co-evolutionary scenarios Selection environment Nanotechnology Responsible development Anticipatory coordination 1. Introduction The path to innovation is journey-like, certainly so for radical innovation.
and dynamics in the environments the hopeful technology may encounter. For those wishing to enable beneficial technology applications stemming from potentially breakthrough areas of science and technology, such as nanotechnology,
not only face the general challenge of prospecting possible pathways for innovation they also are challenged to prospect the changing environments
But the potential breakthrough nature of nanotechnologies as enablers of radically new applications may mean a complex reconfiguration of the environments that a nanotechnology innovation may traverse during its‘lifetime'from concept to well embedded technology in our society.
and the various environments (industrial, market, society, regulation, research, etc.).5 To this end it was necessary to create a scenario method
and (co-)evolving environments whilst still allowing the formulation of strategies and concrete steps to take action.
The key point here is that novelties do not traverse a static landscape made up of various selection environments (such as regulations, markets, policy etc.
The idea from evolutionary economics of a selection environment indicates the part played by economic, institutional and social factors in shaping a technology. 4 Braun for example describes the early notions of innovation as being characterised by a‘linear'view of innovation as an automatic spill over process between basic knowledge
and technological application whilst recent notions regard innovation as being nonlinear and recursive interactions between a variety of actors participating in the quest for innovation. 8. 5 These environments,
I will call selection environments. 1224 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 Sociologically inclined innovation scholars have focused on analysing
Against this background I propose that there is a clear gap in the literature so far regarding the shifting natures of selection environments
There is a gap in capturing the shifting natures of the selection environments and mechanisms of action 14
and embrace these dynamics of selection environments but go no further. Green et al. 16 in their comparison of the techno-economic networks (micro-level analysis stemming from sociology)
The advantage of this conceptualization is that it allows selection environments and framing conditions to be an explicit part of the mapping. 2. 2. Innovation chain+:
and creating scenarios for a CTA exercise. 3. Evolving selection environments, and their internalisation 3. 1. A project is initiated In Autumn 2007 (as still the case 2 years on) there was an increasing emphasis on societal impact and embedment of nanotechnology applications.
At the time of the workshop (December 2007) the situation in and around nanotechnology involved mostly the discussion of Environment, Health and Safety aspects (EHS/HES) and other nanotoxicity related discussions,
This learning links up with the complexity of evolving (governance and other) environments. Working with such scenarios in strategy articulation workshops is a means of testing the scenarios
The repeated occurrences and acceptance of acronyms such as ELSA (Ethical, Legal, Social Aspects) and HES (Health, Environmental, Safety) in discourse on,
and new ways of managing them e g. the Risk Framework for Nanotechnology put forward by the unusual alliance of Dupont and Environmental Defence.
Lack of lifecycle thinking in nanoparticles and engineered tissue causes real concerns by both environmental agencies (the former) and clinicians (the latter.
environmental and safety issues of nano production) and speculation on broader ethical debates around Human Enhancement, Justice,
environmental and safety issues of nano production) and speculation on broader ethical debates around Human Enhancement, Justice,
RRI topics begin to fork as actors focus either on Speculative Ethics 41 and nearteer Health Safety and Environment issues.
These scenarios embrace complexity by referring to the emerging natures of both the innovation chains and their environment.
the confrontation of script-based scenarios, Phd thesis, Ecole des Mines, Paris. 1996.24 S. Glynn, Constructing a selection environment:
Human Choice and Climate change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, Columbus, 1998.31 A. Stirling, Opening up or closing down?
such as those concerning health, energy supply and the environment. Modern societies have a strategic interest in research and technological development,
Both the environment-scanning and competence-based approaches are based on the assumption that rational-analytical processes are used in strategic decision-making.
Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.
In the same way, foresight exercises and similar strategic activities aim to position national research optimally in relation to future opportuniitie in the strategic environment of national research programmes:
and M. Borup With this understanding of strategy it is logical to use forecasting methods capable of analysing the uncertainties in the future strategic environment.
Whereas the Porter-inspired understanding of foresight focuses on the strategic environment, a contrasting understanding focuses on an organisation's internal resources,
The resource-based approach does not replace analyses of an organisation's strateggi environment, but supplements these by analysing internal competencies.
The argument is need that organisations to understand core competencies before analysing the environment and opportunities to exploit these competencies.
1) biotechnology and chemistry,(2) energy,(3) environment,(4) nanotechnology,(5) production and materials technology,(6) information systems,(7) simulation and, finally,(8) research consortia.
A third funding source for energy research, a New energy and Environment Research programme, was established also in the period through the Strategic research Council, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
An important part of his work is also strategic foresight on environment and technology. Notes 1. The two electricity grid operators were at that time Eltra and Elkraft System.
Thematic field Research area Research domain Research axis Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Environmental sciences Global change and ecosystem Water management Drinking water
National priorities National priorities (Research areas)( Research domains) Innovation in services Business service design and innovation Fostering the economic and legal environment for Innovation performance and development of the financial systems
including aspects of environmental health Translational biomedical research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 943 so-called‘competence niches'
The exercise also helped the FNR to better comprehend the Luxembourg STI environment while strongly highlighhtin the dearth of statistics and analyses.
Overall, the successful conduct of the Foresight exercise and its implementation, together with all the other ongoing structural changes, indicate a growing maturity of the Luxembourg STI environment, particularly around public governance.
Second, it is clear that a forward-looking process like foresight needs to be underpinned by sufficient and appropriate‘objectivised'data, e g. publication data, statistics on the national R&d environment, reports on the state of economy, environment or society
as for example within the areas of environmental regulation or energy conservation. In the Norwegian municipal visioning project stakeholder participation was socially and politically legitimised by the municipal government and the municipal employees responsible for the project.
and future issues and to act responsibly in a changing environment. Less attention, however, is given to the paradoxical aspects of reflexive knowledge in its relation to expectations and the organisation of the future.
To get access to the other environments contactwas established with the visioning project leader in the municipality's administration.
simppl because existing rules and constraints are taken for granted as preconditions for future environments (Jenssen, forthcoming) 9. Community engagement refers to the process by
Towards a research agenda for environment, learning and foresight. Paper presented at 3rd Strathclyde international conference on organisational foresight, 16 18 august 2007, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 28, no. 2: 219 41. Pløger, J. 2002.
Environment and Planning A 34, no. 1: 7 22. Shipley, R.,B. Hall, R. Feick,
Environment and Planning B, Planning and Design 26, no. 4: 573 91. Slaughter, R. A. 2004.
Risk and environment as legitimatory discourses of technology: reflexivity inside out? Current Sociology 50, no. 3: 459 477.
Exploiting contextual information resources that cover policy, standards, public concerns, possible health and environmental hazards, and perceived technological impacts can further support TA activities.
1) Learning and learning society (2) Services and service innovations (3) Well-being and health (4) Environment and energy (5) Infrastructures and security (6) Bio-expertise
for example, advances in relation to forest-related industries were discussed in panels on Environment and energy, Bio-expertise and bio-society, Materials,
and substance abuse research Home care and telecare technologies 4. Environment and energy Operation of ecosystems Water systems and water cleaning technologies Smart sensors and new energy conversion and storage
technologies 5. Infrastructure and security Environmental know-how and technology Logistic know-how and security of supply management Integration know-how 6. Bio-expertise and bio-society Complete use of renewable
natural resources Development of bioproduction Measurement methods and diagnostics Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
By June 2009, six strategic centres have started their operations (i e. energy and environment; metal products and mechanical engineering;
built environment. Although the establishment of these centres cannot be attributed to Finnsight, the results of Finnsight were published at an opportune moment for the development of the strategic research plans for these centres.
Moving forward the edition has shown FTA to be in a transitional stage brought about both by its internal dynamics and by the broader global environment.
Recently also political science approaches have been advocating the idea that innovation in the environment of the political system needs a corresponding increase in complexity of the political system or
and pursuing political objectives by influencing the environment. If such congruence of structures does not occur,
and their institutional environment asking for institutional change and strategic political action. In an early attempt to explore dependency between field dynamics and Foresight success
and innovation areas develop across and beyond inherited national environments. This choice does not mean that the national and regional levels are not to be taken into consideration.
As a third new element we suggest to broaden the analytical framework (originally designed for purely scientific environments) towards the realm of technological knowledge,
but growing public concern over their supposed environmental and health risks led several EU countries to demand the moratorium.
and is linked with environmental research. The cognitive proliferation that keeps blooming in the field of genomics is challenging some early applications of plant genomics research jeopardising thus their industrial applications.
the issues of monitoring GM plants released in the environment and of co-existence between GM and non-GM plants have fostered collaboration with environmental sciences.
and goals that was developed with a broad range of stakeholders including consumer and environmental organisations (Plants for the Future 2005).
Promoting research on environmental safety issues as a scientific priority for plant genomics and for nanotechnology appears as an interesting way for releasing current tensions that block this field of research a strategic orientation that could fit in a grand challengesbaase R&i policy 18.
Human Choice and Climate change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, WASHINGTON DC, 1998.16 K. Smith, Innovation as a systemic phenomenon:
and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
and technological environments is essential to maintaining the needed flexibility. Such monitoring of the external environment is the foundation of an open intelligence system.
The open intelligence concept contrasts sharply with the more common concept of targeted intelligence or the understanding of business intelligence as an analytical function dealing with internal corporate data.
and cultural environments on a monthly basis. James B. Smith originally brought the scanning process to SRI International in 1979 with the assistance of the futurist consulting group Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc,
The commercial environment is constantly evolving through the interactions of thousands of variables from market-driven pricing processes to government regulations, from consumer opinion to market competition,
interpret, and act on cues from an ever-changing environment. Stephen Haeckel 2, author of Adaptive Enterprise, notes
The constant surveillance of the external environment on the part of scanners the rhythm of monthly meetings to discuss new data points,
and technological environments. The data points can be events, developments, opinions, research findings, or products that participants believe to be early signals that portend significant changes.
and technological environments. The scanning system captures and assembles the data points in the form of short abstracts,
SRIC-BI's system operates on a monthly schedule at the end of each Fig. 1. The complex market environment.
we become aware that products in today's highly competitive environment are increasingly competing with products outside their category for the attention of the consumer.
Formosa's points are that many disabilities derive from the user's environment and that designers frequently have much to say about what that environment looks like 8. Many abstracts deal with innovative business processes
and models and even philosophical shifts such as those currently occurring surrounding the concepts of intellectual property.
because they help define the environment in which commercial products must succeed. A plethora of abstracts on advertising indicate that tectonic shifts are under way in the marketing and branding domain.
and managers of the importance of a heads-up attitude about the external environment. The likelihood of strategic plans'being blindsided by external developments increases every year with the increasing complexity and competition in the business environment.
is a necessity in today's fast-paced environment. A push mechanism, in which the scanners and meeting participants push content into distribution throughout the company,
scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
FP1 Socioeconomic Improving human potential Innovation/dissemination International cooperation Energy Environment Competitive and sustainable growth Information society Quality of life Fig. 2. Evolution of framework programme priorities
and the broader socioeconomic environment and hence for some of their more prominent members to advocate simplistic remedies based on linear model thinking
One reason for this is that is many national environments there is insufficient autonomy or strategic space for universities to act upon the insights arising from foresight.
who are likely to influence the environment inwhich theywill operate. This argument is particularly strong for innovation in complex public/private systems such as vehicle route information technologies,
and their external environments and that firms do not innovate alone, but by interacting with universities, technological institutes, consulting companies, suppliers and even competitors.
technological lock ins and an inability to engage in the kind of networks now recognised as the environment in
effects of implementing the science policy priority for biotechnology in The netherlands, Research policy 15 (1986) 253 268.16 R. Coombs, L. Georghiou, A new industrial ecology, Science 296 (2002
Fixed Strategic environmental scan based on experts'view was used assess probability and impacts of projected threats.
Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental Sustainabilityh 22 Informative Explore how ICTS will influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
Diverse Description of a large degree of uncertainty of impact of ICTS on the environment. The scenarios developed during the project accommodated a diverse range of views
and security directly, including‘‘Advancing the E2 (Environment and Energy) Frontier''and the‘‘Improving National Safety and Prestige''.
For instance, some major sustainability challenges address climate change, global equity and competiveness. Security: the term refers to the condition of being protected against danger
) The findings of the project showed that a large degree of uncertainty existed on impact of ICTS on the environment,
pp. 71 88.13 World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford university Press, New york, 1987.14 Sustainable development: a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
we are led typically to think of the‘‘obvious catastrophes''and more or less wild cards mass epidemics, asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, accelerating climate change, and the like.
There are quite distinct communities at work in different areas of practice, for example environmental/climatological, employment/skills, security/defence,
The selection environment is more of a chain of fairly contained niches than it is a free market of ideas of a level playing field.
and convergent technologies) and the extensive and far-reaching implications of increasing capabilities to transform the natural and human environments (giving rise at one extreme to concerns about threats to human existence
and other technological solutions to the climate change crisis as opposed to change in lifestyle and corporate practice);
Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
involving nanoscience and engineering, social science, ethics, consumer protection and environmental interests. The working group issued a call for written evidence,
and situations as a result of various factors including globalisation, environmental concerns, more knowledge intensive work and lifestyle.
but in human societies it has perceptual and physical components infecting matters relating to society, science and technology, economics, ecology, politics and value/norms:
Technology assessment (TA) has diverged into environmental impact analysis (EIA), strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) andconstructive TAWHILE otherprocesses include energy analysis (firstdevelopedbysoddy) andlife cycle analysis (LCA).
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
Some features may be the inclusion of the principles of industrial ecology and its near relative ecological economics.
which emphasises the interactive and interdependent nature of the new regulatory environment. According to Sheng 9, governance is the process of decision making and the process by
while making best use of the resources at their disposal through the sustainable use of natural resources
and protection or conservation of the environment. 7. Equity and inclusiveness that requires that all groups,
and the environment's interests into account. The question is how to formulate and facilitate policy making taking into account the active involvement of society and the requirements of the new governance systems.
but was disseminated only worldwide by the World Commission on Environment and Development 21. The concept means development that is able to meet the necessities of the present generation
allowing their renovation (in the case of renewable natural resources), in proportion to the needs of future generations.
and expand the natural resources base. Sustainability emerges from the exhaustion crisis of economic development based on rational‘
growth'economics that subjugates social, cultural, political and environmental matters towards the consequences of economic growth.
The latter is the principle of Agenda 21 (the document consensually approved at the UN Conference on Environment
when innovation processes are shaped by the social environment. CSR brings wider societal concerns and values, such as human rights, ethics and corruption, into business strategy and decision making.
an emphasis on environment and community stewardship often invoking the so-called triple bottom line of economic, social,
and environmental performance. Nevertheless the sustainability school raises questions about these trade-offs without offering a framework to answer them.
based on frameworks that aim to explain the nature of the relationship between financial and environmental and/or social performance 30,
which suggests there would be an optimal level of social environmental performance reflecting intuitive logic that improvements in environmental
or disprove the link between corporate social and environmental performance and financial performance. Salzmann et al. 30 agree that empirical studies are either instrumental,
and social environmental performance is complex and contingent on situational, company and plant specific factors that are difficult to detect through analytical approaches.
The issue of the causal sequence between financial and social environmental performance remains unresolved. Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
environmental andsocial issues can becomeeconomically relevant for companies. CSRGOES beyondcompliancewiththe lawandobviouslynot all externalities are internalised. For this reason stakeholders put firms'under additional pressure to internalise more of the social and environmental externalities that they create.
Nevertheless, companiesmust ensure theirown economic survival in a competitive and volatile business environment while dealing with social and environmental issues 31.
offers nine principles relating to human rights and the environment which have become the ethical roadmap for the future.
social and environmental criteria into account when making investment decisions. SRI plays an important part in creating corporate and public awareness about CSR issues
environment; information disclosure; competition'taxation; and science and technology. Their aimis to ensure thatmnes operate in harmony with the policies of the countries where they operate.
Similarly, innovations in international agreements on trade, standards of all kinds, intellectual property rights, environmental matters, health and safety and human rights are involved all, often interactively,
and regulation process in a number of areas including food safety and environmental standards. The breadth and influence of those attempts have gone beyond national borders
Firms will need to focus on themes like creativity, breakthrough innovation, entrepreneurial solutions to great challenges, like pandemics and climate change,
Dignity, equity and peace together with globalisation, world trade, Africa and climate change were the highlights in the 2007 Annual Meeting.
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
environmental and social values and performance. Ethics, human rights, how to deal with bribery and corruption, climate change and other societal concerns should be dealt with in a transparent and participative way.
Nevertheless, it is the responsibility of a company's board to take forward such an approach in a strategic way
This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
The parallel emergence of the notions of industrial ecology in 1973 when Evan 40 defined industrial ecology as‘a systematic analysis of industrial operations including factors like:
technology, environment, natural resources, biomedical aspects, institutional and legal matters as well as the socioeconomic aspects.''Davitaya 41 enlarged Evan's definition describing,
for in them the resolution of all arising contradictions is the motive force of progress (Wikipedia's‘History of Industrial Ecology')Industrial ecology was later popularised by Frosch and Gallopoulos 42.
The marriage of the principles of industrial ecology and those of ecological economics, and its influence on globalisation, glocalisation and governance,
By engaging actively in shaping the move from the current paradigm of‘growth'economics to that of ecological economics and industrial ecology
Development Sustainability Environment, Newcastle Civic Centre on 27 september 2003 (available at: http://www. thegreatdebate. org. uk/GDDSEDL1. html, last visited on 03 october 2008.
Ph d. Thesis, University of Manchester, 2005.21 UN, Report of World Commission on Environment and Development:
40 H. Z. Evan, Seminar at Economic Commission of Europe, Warsaw, 1973.41 F. Davitaya, Changes in the Atmosphere and Some Problems of its Protection, in Society and the Environment:
For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,
The increase in population from the Palaeolithic period to the present provides an example. 2 The UK Department for Environment,
Gradually increased concerns for the environment in terms of sustainability, human and animal health, and global warming;
Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns;
and create or drive change within one's business or institutional environment. These tend to be more immediate and relevant and distinct to different types of stakeholders
and directly impacting one's influence environment. Thus, drivers of change are those factors, forces or events developments
in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
rapid progress of ICT and biotech End of Moore's Law 100 years life expectancy Environment:
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
There are some tools for utilizing weak signals in organizational environments. One tool is called Strategy Signals, which aims to collect weak signals inside of an organization.
Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;
H2, nukes) 4. Ecology-Economy State of Global Finance Trade, Debt and Related Globalization Issues BRIC Rapid Development Economies Climate change, Global Warming=sustainable ecology, new economy 5. Geopolitics & Security East-West
, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
Balance was distributed well with economy-ecology leading but S&t, geopolitics, security and culture close behind;
it is rather clear that trends involving technology change and uncertainties about environmental, climatic and energy systems change are on the top of respondents minds.
fuel cells and nuclear) Shift in travel patterns due to energy prices and ICT alternatives Solar energy meets grid parity Ecology Economy 82 Increased frequency of economic crises
political and military region Different environmental abuses Reversal of globalization and growth of anti-globalization India and China create increased demand for petrol and minerals Increased widespread diseases
Ecology and Economy; and Geopolitics and Security (STEEP. Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years.
Strong emphasis again on ecology-environment and economy with Society and Culture and S&t close behind;
Clear belief that health-medicine, climate and the environment will be central to our futures and offer possibilities for improvements, sometimes through dramatic changes;
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
and climate change lead to descent scenarios Ecology Economy 50 Global financial imbalances create national commercial rivalries China's role in international affairs:
and puts extreme stress on infrastructure Economic measures to meet international environmental commitments Growing localisation in response to supply chain vulnerability Foreign affairs fail to be harmonised to cope with global issues Patterns
of disease radically changed by climate change Geopolitics & Security 35 Cooperative and concerted policies among nations Nuclear proliferation-incidence from terrorism in Middle east Renewed awareness of the limits to growth Uni-bio-multi-polar world
Cyber crime and network vulnerabilities from failure of human systems Increased barriers to access to natural resources Growing organizational and governance incapacity Water recognised as a valuable resource
shift to alternatives Ecology Economy 32 Global trade conflicts intensify between developed and developing countries Civil war in China Unexpected freeze of northern hemisphere pushes population to immigrate south G8
redistribution of wealth to enable the achievement of millennium development goals New Islamic superpower Rapid climate change overwhelms human capacity Massive failure of capitalism
-based World war Change of earth rotation causes climate change Accidental nuclear spasm leads to war Terrorist attacks create police states Global disasters from alignment of volcanoes, tsunamis
Energy, resource and environmental breakthroughs are included which provide a positive outlook as well as more familiar negative discontinuities;
and social environments revise to accommodate Wiki Facebook, , You Tube, etc. Energy 13 Energy availability increases plentiful oil and other alternatives Rapid advances in concentrated solar energy Technical breakthrough in electric energy storage Sudden stop
because of oil price increase causes travel decline Nano-facilitated energy conversion alters energy economic mix Ecology Economy 7 Western world becomes a national/corporate welfare state BRICS rapidly overtake western economy
ecological behaviour reverse perception of a resource scarce world Discontinuities in national and international policy approaches toward climate change Breakdown of world order Resource scarcity creates new motivations
tipping points in culture, science and ecology; familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
and moon Rights to robots Energy 9 Russia turns off gas oil for political purposes Solar energy price descants Shift to hydrogen energy Wrong prediction of oil prices by IEA Ecology
Economy 27 Widening the rift between rich and poor More rights of China Induced migration due to inundation and climate change Price hikes in energy,
materials and food Democratisation of China Sunspot theory of climate change Privatisation criticised more China implodes due to several political conflicts Diverse opinions on environmental issues Geopolitics
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