Framework

Conceptual framework (40)
Framework (525)
Framework programme (36)
Framework scenarios (11)
Methodological framework (12)
New framework (9)
Regulatory framework (34)
Theoretical framework (16)

Synopsis: Framework:

A three-level framework on the case of nanotubes is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated context:

This converging understanding of the issues at play is expected to contribute to improving implicitly the coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors, in line with the shared mental framework developed.

and their contributions to be positioned in a comprehensive framework. 7 A fact-based foundation is thus as crucial for the credibility of foresight as a critical assessment of the sources of knowledge.

and Voros 16 is an example of such a far more comprehensive framework than what is applied in most current foresight exercises. 467 E. A. Eriksson,

and therefore we claim to provide here a novel integrative framework for taking on several of the main weaknesses of current foresight practice.

adaptive planning provides a framework for developing forward-looking strategies and options for individual actors. Thirdly, adaptive planning takes into account the accumulation of knowledge

authoritative texts on the subject fail to explicitly include sequential decision-making as a way for dealing with uncertainty. 9 Doing so they turn down to include in a rational decision framework,

flexibility, and adaptivity within a common framework. A proposed package of decision options resulting from an AP exercise will typically consists of both robust (fixed and flexible) and adaptable parts.

and on often politically defined framework conditions what kind of impact they will have. Embedded systems, to take an example from the information

Early frameworks for strategic planning build on a structural approach: Typically a handful of alternative structures a type of visionary scenarios are constructed

real options display much more complex patterns of interrelation than do financial instruments. 12 This has to be considered in a successful AP framework. 2. 2. 4. Commitment vs. opportunism A final problemarea

drafting of exploratory framework scenarios25 The first forward-looking and interactive element of an AF project is typically a workshop with experts and stakeholders.

the alternative preferred in AF is to develop a set of multifaceted framework scenarios (also known as context or external scenarios.

and the whole set of scenarios should represent the full range of most salient such issues as well as possible (for tractability the number of framework scenarios is held normally at just three or four).

which are likely to create trend-breaks form a useful starting point for drafting framework scenarios. Before the actual sketching,

It is also useful to start 27 These criteria for good framework scenarios are developed based on a set of criteria often used in the Shell/GBN tradition

specification of exploratory framework scenarios In either of the cases at the end of Phase 2, the scenario ideas need much additional development.

identification of challenges associated with each framework scenario The challenges opportunities and threats are what connect the framework scenarios with the addressee's area of responsibility.

Their exploration could usefully be started at the initial workshop, based on the scenario ideas developed in Phase 2

and if possible continued at a subsequent workshop when well worked-out framework scenarios are available.

and interact under various framework scenarios. In back-office work also the same types of simulation models as in Phase 3 can be useful. 476 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.

But a type of backcasting more distinctive for AF is to identify a best possible variant of each framework scenario

but within the confines of the respective framework scenarios. Moreover, by staging the pathways leading to the realisation of different scenarios

The practical tools and methods are available, based on many Fig. 1. Positioning recent forward-looking activities in the framework of Adaptive foresight. 31 31 For Details on these projects

K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482 AF offers a learning framework rather than just an impressionistic one.

Eval. 13 (3)( 2004) 143 153.14 PREST, Evaluation of the Hungarian technology foresight programme (TEP), Report of an International Panel, University of Manchester, Manchester, 2004.15 R. Slaughter, A new framework

by developing a framework for the field of wood material science, consisting of four research areas and 23 sub-areas. 6 Stakeholder participation,

decomposition was facilitated by the framework for research sub-areas, as well as by the treatment of research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could be assessed with the Internet-based decision support tool.

and sub-area the issue would fit best within a taxonomical framework that was developed for the research issues.

This framework was helpful in that it helped the participants identify the issues that they were interested most In for each issue,

This structure differed somewhat from the framework that was employed in the structuring of research areas and sub-areas.

In effect, the thematic titles of the workshops were somewhat more traditional than those employed in the framework,

Change 70 (2003) 619 637.14 J. S. Metcalfe, Technology systems and technology policy in an evolutionary framework, Camb.

and include standards and standardisation as elements of the regulatory framework. The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight.

which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies. Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations.

reflects interrellate developments emerging over the past few years 4. First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition,

CENELEC and ETSI in the legal framework allowing for the free movement of goods. EC directives define the essential requirements,

or new frameworks have to be built. Therefore, some of the traditional foresight studies consider or cover also regulation as a policy instrument,

or develop new frameworks, which requires the long-lasting decision processes within the public, the political decision structures and the public administration.

but also emerging technologies, sectors or markets in order to shape pro-actively innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems.

an IST project of the 6th Framework programme. 499 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 also the results of the OECD 4. However,

Here, legal frameworks as an object of assessment are part among the set of other policy instruments, like R&d funding,

Benchmarking Financing R&d Provision of R&d infrastructure Technology transfer and innovation diffusion Legal frameworks (IPRS, standards and regulation) Integrated projects Networks of excellence Methodology:

often pose challenges for the existing regulatory framework, or call for the creation of new regulatory frameworks. Changes and dynamics in science and technology can be identified

and traced by different indicators. These indicators allow the creation of comparisons between scientific and technological fields, between countries, organisations,

or even part of the regulatory framework. Fig. 2 gives an overview of the science and technology indicators.

Since research activities only being performed in basic research are less likely to create challenges for the regulatory framework in the near or mid-term future

it can be derived that dynamics in technology is reflected at least in standardisation activities as part of the regulatory framework in the European union.

and the adaptation of the regulatory framework based on quantitative approaches, are missing. Some studies based on OECD data and other internationally comparable data investigated the influence of the regulatory framework on R&d activities 27 or product innovation 28.

These studies do not consider that the outcome of R&d and innovation activities may challenge the existing regulatory framework and Fig. 2. Science and technology indicators (Source:

Blind 21 modifying Grupp 24). 502 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 call for adjustments or even for a completely new framework.

However, there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the regulatory framework has been adapted to the emergence of new technologies,

like in biotechnology. However, the proved link between science and technology, on the one hand, and changes in existing regulations or new regulations, on the other hand, underlines that the former can in general be used to determine possible challenges for the regulatory framework in the future.

Nevertheless, only an indicatorbaase approach is able to be the basis for systematic regulatory foresight activities.

the link between science and technology indicators and indicators describing the regulatory framework is established not yet. This deficit is caused by a significant lack of regulatory indicators and especially of respective time series and of rather differentiated sub-categories in regulation.

but especially those with possible impacts on health, safety, the environment and on the functioning of markets require an adjustment of the regulatory framework.

and especially technology indicators are a possible source to detect challenges for the regulatory framework in the future. However this is a rather new approach,

The simple quantitative use of science and technology indicators in order to detect future challenges for the regulatory framework is not sufficient.

Elaboration of questionnaire (including the definition of questions on participation in standardisation and involvement in setting up regulatory frameworks, the relevance of regulations, the use of existing standards, the relevance of current regulations, future needs for standards

the results of the surveys conducted within the framework of the Community Innovation Survey also contain information about regulations and standards as obstacles for innovation and sometimes their role as source for information.

Based on a conceptual framework on the role of standards in the innovation process they derive that in a new emerging technology at first terminology standards,

and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,

which can be promoted by adjustments of the regulatory framework. In the first German Delphi survey, the field communication was characterised by the most negative values regarding the impact of the regulatory framework3 because of the former monopolistic structures in the telecommunication markets and the massive public intervention in the radio

In Japan, the regulatory framework in communication technology is compared also crucial to most other technological areas 47.

The relatively small importance of the regulatory framework for the future development of new issues in science and technology compared to other policy instruments is confirmed in the follow-up studies,

but the liberalisation, especially of the communication markets in Germany, is reflected in the low need to readjust the regulatory framework in comparison to other fields,

the regulatory framework is of relatively small importance. 508 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 In contrast,

the Japanese experts call for adjustments in the regulatory framework, especially in the information and communication field, for instance, the widespread use of electronic money, electronic voting or automated trading systems in their Sixth Japanese Delphi Report

but also in the field business regarding e-commerce-related issues. 4 In summary, Delphi exercises focusing on the future of science and technology take the general regulatory framework into account as one kind of obstacle,

However, the role of regulatory frameworks for the realisation of progress in future sciences and technologies compared to other types of obstacles is limited rather.

and improving the framework conditions for R&d, regulation (i e. reinforcing or establishing regulations); deregulation (relaxing or abolishing related regulations),

three case studies based on the review of the regulatory frameworks and expert interviews were conducted 50. One of these case studies focused on the future regulatory framework for the use of smart cards. 509 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Table 2 Future

needs for standardisation in information and communication technology (Source: NO-REST ITU Survey Fraunhofer ISI 2005)( 1=low importance to 5=high importance) Year Importance R&d Regulation Deregulation Standardisation Widespread use

since the time frame of such studies should not be much more than ten years. A classical feature of the Delphi methodology is the promotion of a convergence process leading to a consensus by surveying the experts at least twice

In addition, the time frame of Delphi studies focusing on regulatory issues should be much shorter covering only the next ten years,

in which Germany did not leverage its excellent position in research and development into a leading position in setting the necessary framework conditions for future research and market introduction via standardisation 39.

Our paper centres on one Frontiers FTA project on the stimulation 1 The EC 6th Framework programme Network of Excellence Frontiers is a network of 14 European research institutes

12 It was developed as a framework to study emerging alignments and entanglements in the field of nanotechnology,

a project was set up under the framework of the Frontiers Technology assessment Programme to: 1. explore and develop tools to map possible futures for the field of cell-on-a-chip with a focus on single cell analysis

1. Developing strategic information for the Frontiers network to include within the framework of MPM-1

The strategy support systems will be developed further for different technology fields being investigated within the framework of the Frontiers research programme.

This work was done also under the framework of the Frontiers Technology assessment Program. References 1 W. J. Abernathy, K. B. Clark, Innovation:

Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.

Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,

In parallel, given that developments in the above spheres are associated strongly with the evolution of‘participatory knowledge societies',this paper presents an interpretation of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework that attempts to characterise such societies.

Additionally, such an interpretation is conceived as a step towards the development of a conceptual framework aimed at understanding the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.

'This framework should be capable of explaining the interdependencies and inter-relationships between system elements such as actors, processes, inputs, outputs and impacts,

10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.003 The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to

The evolution of a common evaluation and assessment framework for foresight exercises however, could facilitate the identification of good practices irrespective of their specific objectives

These two‘pillars',the‘knowledge society'and‘participatory governance',can become the common framework in which to assess

As a starting point, a conceptual framework is presented which outlines the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies. This is based on a review of the available literature.

and goal attainment levels. 2. A conceptual framework to characterise emerging knowledge societies The findings of the literature review on the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics

and risk societies are synthesised into a conceptual framework describing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.'This conceptual framework is illustrated in Fig. 1. 5 The three main groups of characteristics are illustrated by the three inner circles.

The conditions enhancing the development of each of these three broad groups of elements are shown by the second inner circles,

6 is shown by the lines connecting the factors. 3. Contribution of foresight to the emerging knowledge societies The above conceptual framework facilitates the identification of areas where foresight impacts may contribute to the strengthening

'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,

since it deals with uncertainty by requiring the development of alternative Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for the emerging‘knowledge societies':

'4. From the conceptual framework to an objectives hierarchy The conceptual framework used to characterise emerging knowledge societies

'This in turn can be used to develop an objectives hierarchy that maps the links between the elements of the conceptual framework.

Table 1 groups together many of the reported objectives and impacts associated with foresight exercises under the headings of‘intermediate'and‘lower level'goals. 5. Approach for developing an impact assessment framework It is possible

to develop an impact assessment framework based on a‘logic model'approach which links the generic goal of a participatory knowledge society with the reported impacts of framework exercises.

Instead, the impact assessment framework has to be built the other way round, i e. starting from the identification of potential impacts in line with the generic goal before moving‘backwards'to examine the degree to which programme design

An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the foresight system. b: An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the wider environment. 547 E. Amanatidou,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

A conceptual framework of this nature sheds light on the dynamics of foresight programmes and helps identify the principles

'It can also guide the development of an impact assessment framework. If the system variables turn out to be highly contextual,

then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context

then it will be possible to construct a common impact assessment framework. This framework should allow for the more sophisticated design

and implementation of foresight programmes by adding design and implementation principles to the existing evaluation issues of efficiency,

and b. 7. From the impact assessment framework to the logic model The above framework can be enriched further by findings from studies of other foresight exercises in different countries,

Impact assessment framework foresight system (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta. b: Impact assessment framework wider environment (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta.

551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,

attempting to develop the impact assessment framework within each distinct category. For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking

b) coping with greater Fig. 5. An impact assessment framework for foresight systems capable of enhancing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.

The examination of foresight process impacts within a conceptual framework characterising participatory‘knowledge societies'provides indications that foresight can contribute to the emergence of such societies in terms of:

This model can then direct the development of a common impact assessment framework based on the‘logic model'approach.

given the diverse nature of the impact areas in question, a finer level of analysis needs to be applied to the different areas of the impact assessment framework.

The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,

Foundations and Frameworks, Edward Elgar, 2003.12 H. Nowotny, P. Scott, M. Gibbons, Rethinking Science. Knowledge and the Public in an Age of Uncertainty, Polity Press, Cambridge, 2001.13 A. Guimaraes Pereira, S. Funtowicz, Quality assurance by extended peer review:

The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:

and also the framework in which they cooperate and compete with other research actors active inside the EU. 6 Finally,

The theoretical framework of this article rests on the innovation systems school 10 15), and especially its emphasis on the importance of academia industry co-operation 16,17).

Fifth, promoting RTDI efforts in cohesion regions via joint research projects (funded e g. by RTD Framework programmes) does not mean that scientific excellence is compromised 45.

The aim of the above‘crude'typology is just to demonstrate that (a) different types of universities would act in different ways in the framework of the same ERIA;

the role of framework conditions, Sc. Public policy 28 (4)( 2001) 247 258.18 EUROPOLIS, The European research area:

la lettre OST, No. 22,2001. 19 L. Georghiou, Evolving frameworks for European collaboration in research and technology, Res.

Such a methodological framework is likely to depart in style and content from the currently dominant forms of strategic decision making in infrastructure sectors 5. While in conventional approaches

1) Exploratory context scenarios analyze a set of possible future framework conditions relevant for organizations, regions or communities.

The aim of these foresight processes is to gain better understanding about shifts in framework rules

Furthermore, critical framework conditions were taken into consideration. Climate change effects with extreme weather events might impact the receiving river

but could not consistently be addressed in the conventional planning framework. While the RIF process in the Kiesental resulted in little surprise with the already prior favored idea for a future sanitation system,

Overview and Interpretative Framework, European Science and Technology observatory (ESTO), Paris, 2001.57 I. Miles, Appraisal of Alternative methods and Procedures for Producing Regional foresight, EU Kommission, Brüssel, 2002.58 R. Popper,

In the exploration stage, main issues, trends and drivers as well as key stakeholders'frames are explored. Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues,

A tentative systemic framework of the potential FTA METHODS by Saritas 10 is shown in Fig. 2;‘

and selection'section of the framework. This will be discussed further in Section 2. 2. Joint research Centre (JRC)

and Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) have launched a FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight guide developed during the project FOR-LEARN in 6th Framework programme project of the European commission.

The guide introduces a methodological framework for foresight studies. According to the framework the following functions can be distinguished in a Foresight exercise 42:

Diagnosis: Understanding where we are Prognosis: Foresighting what could happen Prescription: Deciding what should be done Specific methods to fulfill specific functions are illustrated also in the guide,

A systematic and Fig. 2. A systemic framework for methods 10.1 For instance, the TA studies carried out by the US Office of Technology (OTA) in 1974 1995 primarily served to inform Congress

Risks, Potential and Adaptation (CES, time frame 2007 2010. The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.

A new risk analysis framework was created. How case studies contributed to risk assessment methodologies? A good modelling tool would be helpful to model the future interdependencies.

The new framework help companies to create climate change strategies. How case studies contributed to risk resilience thinking?

A Framework for Learning in Organizations, Institutions and Culture, Routledge, London, 1995.41 M. H. Boisot, Knowledge Asset:

1999.42 JRC and IPTS FOR-LEARN On-line Foresight guide in http://forlearn. jrc. ec. europa. eu/guide/4 methodology/framework. htm (read May 28th 2009).

The theoretical framework of the barometer is based on the evolution of economies from industrial development phase to sustainable knowledge society.

so that the comparison of indicators of latest exercise to those of previous barometers remains possible. 2. Theoretical framework

and making interpretations and policy implications on the basis of the barometer results. 2. 1. Theoretical framework It is important for composite indicators,

The theoretical framework of transitional phases of economies created by contemporary social scientists was accepted widely as the platform for constructing the barometer instrument.

and dynamics into the analysis. The framework enables the structural comparisons of entire economies, their individual industrial sectors, related R&d and innovation intensities,

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 The theoretical framework of technology barometer is based on various economic development stages since the first barometer exercise in 2004.

One conceptual framework to structure the oftentimes messy processes of policy-making is the concept of the policy cycle 14.

though they can also help frame public debates 17. A limited relevance for decision-making in policy processes is recognized by a review of practice in the broader area of foresight:

Inductive approaches, in opposition to deductive approaches, are guided not by a structuring Framework scenarios rather evolve by brainstorming events and spinning larger stories around these events.

when evaluated against the framework of scenarios. Another argument concerned a potential mismatch of scenario formats

where scenario planning has been part of developing Scotland's 2nd National Planning Framework (NPF), setting out the range of strategic alternatives that were considered as part of the early development of the NPF,

create a learning framework to flexibly incorporate new advancements in knowledge, adapt structures and decisions to new insights and trigger more long-term changes in the organisations'overall awareness for constant anticipation, learning and adaptation 12,43.

1207 16 P. Sabatier, H. J. Jenkins-Smith, The advocacy-coalition-framework. an assessment, in:

Integrating the Environment for Sustainability, Edgar Elgar Publishing, London, 2008, pp. 114 133.42 Scottish government, National Planning Framework 2 SEA Annex to the Environmental Report:

The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions.

CSH offers a starting framework from which to begin to build a metaphor based on twelve categories of heuristics grouped into four categories of intention as shown in Fig. 2 (overleaf) 22.

In this section I use three building blocks to construct a framework for prospecting innovation: evolutionary models of technical change;

This framework which can help in structuring large amounts of heterogeneous data, aid the construction of complexity scenarios,

I propose the Innovation chain+framework as a way of presenting this situation. It allows the positioning of the complexities inherent to the reality of innovations, paths and landscapes,

Coupling endogenous futures with characteristics of innovation journeys (from historical case studies) within the framework of the IC+framework helps us structure the complexities

I position (in the IC+framework) the actors that were active at the time of the workshop

and new ways of managing them e g. the Risk Framework for Nanotechnology put forward by the unusual alliance of Dupont and Environmental Defence.

6. Evaluation and discussion These co-evolutionary scenarios can prepare the ground for discussion of complex potential radical technologies via the combination of endogenous futures, the IC+framework and deep case research into actors

The IC+framework provides a gameboard to bring together linear/concentric perspectives with complexity, and thus helps with the creation of scenarios.

Acknowledgements This project was conducted within the framework of the Frontiers network of excellence and the Nanoned programme (www. nanoned. nl.

a framework and an application to Lab on a chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications, Technol.

Through these discussions, research consortia were defined as a type of funding in addition to existing instruments, such as engineering research centres, framework programmes and talent projects.

ICT Infrastructure Telecoms Voip Social & human sciences Economy, policies, institutional framework Economy and finance Dynamics of financial wealth creation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december

a single framework programme reflecting the strategic positioning of the FNR, with the results of the Foresight providing thematic orientation.

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