The impact assessment is based on a framework that focuses on three key functions of foresight in relation to policy making:
After introducing the impact assessment framework and the general process design, objectives and results of the Viennese innovation policy foresight and strategy process and the different impact dimensions will be analysed
The aim was to develop, in a participatory process, a comprehensive strategic framework as well as concrete proposals for*Corresponding author.
For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.
The foresight experience of the City of Vienna will be discussed against this framework. First, we introduce the impact assessment framework (Section 2). Then the main features of the process design (Section 3)
and the objectives and results of the process (Section 4) will be described, including a brief overview of the state of their implementation.
Subsequently (Section 5), the impacts will be discussed along the lines of the impact assessment framework. Obviously, only the immediate and some of the intermediate impacts can be discussed on empiricca grounds,
and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making
which were characterised by a focus on shaping framework conditions that are conducive to innovation. This‘hands off'approach has evolved subsequently into
which not only deals with framework conditions, but also with the institutional and structural settings of innovation systems (Dosi 1988;
Since the turn of the millennium we can observe a shift in policy-making practices from shaping framework conditions and structural settings towards strategic decision making:
in line with the shared mental framework developed. In other words, the future is being shaped by aligning expectations
thus facilitating the implementation of policies. 2. 3. An assessment framework for foresight processes in support of policy making Against this background,
at which an impact occurs3 (Table 1). This framework will be taken as the background against which the experiences and impacts of the innovation policy foresight of the City of Vienna will be assessed,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 957 Table 1. A Framework to classify the impacts of foresight activities.
5) 200 SMES taking part in projects of the EU's Seventh Research Framework programme (FP7;(
a narrow frame with a picture entitled‘Lundal'.'For the figure standing at the left end of the dotted line,
which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.
Likewise, the established technology decision framework constitutes the fourth factor needed for QTIP-decision process standardization.
Our QTIP setting presumes an organization with an established FTA framework. QTIP works where we know the sort of information we need.
In our framework, these indicators reflect one of three main types of MOT information: technological maturation (life cycle status), contextual influences and market potential 3. The innovation indicators help answer MOT questions.
These centres seek to build a highly efficient framework for enhanced collaboration between companies universities, research organisations.
First, the shared analytical framework which consisted of driving forces and focus areas of competences was vital in ensuring that the panels'efforts would remain focused on the objectives of the exercise.
This framework helped mitigate the risk that the panel discussions would drift to the structural issues
the central aim was to bring into a single frame a family of methods and approaches that had matured
and practice which lead them to deploy a hybrid methodological framework involving tailored approaches for specific purposes
Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
It builds on a conceptual framework developed in a project of the European Network of Excellence PRIME5
and practice which allow for deploying a hybrid methodological framework where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to a wide range of different contexts and objectives.
The theoretical framework is elaborated by applying it in two R&i fields:(i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies.
and innovation system and identifies the catalytic role of Foresight in this framework. The European system is sketched in terms of‘‘institutional arrangements''by depicting three (interrelated) arenas for the orientation, the programming and the performance of research.
Foresight practitioners do now deploy hybrid methodological frameworks where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to each specific purpose and context.
it seems that Foresight has been evolving from a loose collection of approaches to a complex integrated framework with a number of levers for adaptation to specific purposes and contexts and gradually,
Innovation studies have pointed out how the dynamics of innovation systems are structured by the nature of the governing technological regimes that in turn co-evolve with socioeconomic and institutional framework conditions.
It builds on a framework developed by Barre'(2007) in The french Futuris project 24. We suggest to extend this concept to the European level
which can be mapped in the proposed framework (see Table 1). The arena of strategic orientation:
At European level, strategic policy orientation takes place, firstly in the context of the process of elaboration of the EU research budget, mainly the framework programme,
This strategic steering of research is performed also through other transnational (non EU) policy frameworks of research policy integration, namely the intergovernmental institutions, such as CERN and ESA.
each cell of the matrix shapes a specific framework for Foresight, -different thematic fields refer to different‘search regimes'characterising their mode
As a third new element we suggest to broaden the analytical framework (originally designed for purely scientific environments) towards the realm of technological knowledge,
Moreover, the combined analysis of scientific and technological knowledge brings a more original outcome in the sense that it provides an adequate framework for analysing researchers'coactivity,
and 12th 2009 in the framework of the ANR-OGM COBINA research project. 10 Decision announced by Ilse Aigner, federal ministry for agriculture, on April 14th 2009.
Examples are the EU FP6 Nanologue project14 where different products for different socio-technical scenarios were envisaged or the strategy articulation workshops in the framework of the Dutch Nanoned initiative (e g. 49 51.
The framework was illustrated by two cases: GMPLANTS and Nano-research. Both field dynamics were described using the selected parameters.
Howevermuch remains to be done to refine the framework to function as a sound base for tailoring research and innovation policy instruments.
Some relevantfieldcharacteristicswerenot adequately captured by the current framework. For instance in the field of nanotechnology the need to foster the forming of new value networks around nano-products
this paper proposes a reasonably validated framework which beyond its acknowledged limitations addresses directly the difficult issue of the design of Foresight activities fit for the emerging European research area (ERA.
Having illustrated the proposed framework all along this article with examples dealing with the European level, we suggest our methodology is applicable indeed for designing such ERA Foresight activities
Available from the Science and Technology studies Unit, University of York, UK, 2001.21 E. Grande, The state and interest groups in a framework of multilevel decision-making:
an analytical framework and key issues for research, Energy Policy 28 (9)( 2000) 625 640.32 A. Salo, T. Gustafsson, R. Ramanathan, Multicriteria methods for Technology foresight, Journal
The Scan process provides a framework with which we can regularly and systematically apply the pattern-recognition capabilities of up to 30 professionals to the task of identifying important potential changes in the business environment.
Scanning provides a framework with which a company can regularly and systematically marshal the pattern-recognition capabilities of a group of professionals to identify important changes in the business environment
They help clients think in new and different frameworks. For example, one abstract about Fair isaac and Co. known for generating algorithms to check consumer creditworthiness) points out that Fair
and bspeculativeq simply as a means of providing a perspective on a time frame for projected impacts.
Fig. 2 shows the evolution of the Framework programme priorities in terms of relative budget allocations to principal areas.
FP1 Socioeconomic Improving human potential Innovation/dissemination International cooperation Energy Environment Competitive and sustainable growth Information society Quality of life Fig. 2. Evolution of framework programme priorities
The type of deficiencies that innovation policy seeks to correct include lack of integration also at the level of the policy framework itself,
However, the approach also emphasises the means by which framework conditions affect complex linkages within and between industries and the influence of social, economic and cultural factors.
and of communicating these to suppliers brings to the fore the idea of using foresight to create a common vision as a framework in
The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects.
The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world
4 6). We elaborate further a foresight framework developed by Ko nno la et al. 7 to characterise different foresight projects
Section 2 elaborates the conceptual framework for the characterisation of different foresight projects. In Section 3, some national and international projects are examined and characterised within the framework,
of which results are discussed in view of impacts on policy-making. Section 4 provides some conclusions and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
it is beneficial to identify different types of foresight activities. The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
Along these lines Ko nno la et al. 7 have developed a framework for the purposes of strategic management of a foresight portfolio in a contract research organisation.
In this paper this framework is applied and elaborated for the purposes to characterise foresight projects conducted around the world in relation with major societal challenges.
The framework consists of four key design dimensions. The first dimension addresses the type of main outcomes of the foresight project referring to its different kinds of impacts on the policy and society at large.
Furthermore for classification purposes, the framework considers outcomes and future perspectives both referring to the outcome-related aspects of the project,
futures challenges, applications and priorities for developing the information society in the EU. Instrumental Outputs contributed to prepare the FP7 (Framework programme) ICT programme.
namely to provide necessary information for making the 2nd Korea S&t Framework plan. Consensual The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''has analysed the impacts of 19 megatrends & issues,
Information society calls, for instance, for a new legislative framework to recognize and protect the users of cyberspace.
and for attesting the developed framework and its usability. The projects are described shortly in Table 1. The conceptual dichotomies of the foresight dimensions defined in Section 2 provide a structure for the analysis assuming
The positioning of individual projects in the framework clarifies the methodological decisions and the rationales of stakeholder engagement.
Once the projects are positioned in the framework they provide an overview of the whole portfolio of foresight projects analysed that supports building the more holistic view of the selected activities.
The main purpose of the green paper was to launch a debate on the regulatory framework to put in place
In parallel with addressing regulatory aspects, the European union (EU) included in its Fifth Framework programme for Research and Technological development (FP5:
"Today, with the i2010 policy framework, the EU aims to"promote the positive contribution that information
"and the ICT priority has the largest budget share of the current European RTD Framework programme (FP7:
This paper contributes to this work by further elaborating the framework of Ko nno la et al. 7
. While the framework is suitable for both the ex-ante and ex post analysis of foresight projects,
The positioning of the projects in the framework (as depicted in Fig. 3 of this paper) helped characterise the projects and the related expectations on them.
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
Dawson also reformulates the Nonaka framework accordingly (Fig. 1), as representing movement between knowledge (which requires knowing agents,
systematising and/or translating formalised concepts into new frameworks, procedures, etc. Fig. 1. The knowledge cycle.
and frameworks they are using, account for their practices. This is certainly explication, and allows (when things work well) for mutual understanding.
Nonaka's SECI framework has been applied, for instance, to understanding and guiding the shared knowledge creation of key actors (industry, academia and policymakers) in the context of Nordic foresight activities 21,22.
The SECI framework portrays the knowledge cycle of organisational learning as a dynamic interaction process.
some organise this information into lists or more structured frameworks even models; some allow for synthesising information into posits, views of alternative futures,
it is also a helpful and generic classification framework. Other frameworks may be designed for specific workshops,
and workshop participants themselves may be asked to or request to develop their own grouping of factors early on in the workshop.
and shapers, there are liable to be moments of‘‘internalisation''as participants become more familiar with working with the background material and fitting it into their own conceptual frameworks and constellations of interests and also, perhaps,
conceptual frameworks given a first airing, possible actions and implications for policy explored. The analysis of drivers and shapers may be conducted in plenary (in smaller workshops,
The scenario framework can be a valuable tool for encouraging people from very different backgrounds to apply their knowledge in new ways.
and careful management of IT system designers who may lean more toward TKM frameworks. Again, the design of FTA needs to take into account the needs of KM
A Framework for Learning in Organizations, Institutions and Culture, Routledge, London, 1995.18 M. H. Boisot, Knowledge Asset:
institutions and associations to enhance public policy within a new framework, which emphasises the interactive and interdependent nature of the new regulatory environment.
which requires fair legal frameworks that are implemented impartially, full protection of human rights, an independent judiciary and an impartial incorruptible police force.
Nevertheless the sustainability school raises questions about these trade-offs without offering a framework to answer them.
based on frameworks that aim to explain the nature of the relationship between financial and environmental and/or social performance 30,
Frameworks proposed by Preston and O'Bannon 32, Salzmann et al. 30 point out that these differ in terms of the hypothesized causal sequence and the direction of the relationship.
Remarkably, theoretical frameworks often do not allow for nonlinear relationships since the nature of the relationship could change depending on performance levels.
to offer a framework to help companies build an internal capacity to embed the values
A new global setting of the world economy is defining the framework for operation of the industrial sector both inside the national boundaries and internationally.
which is responsive and accountable to all stockholders and the legal frameworks in place, therefore being effective, efficient, and transparent.
they still do not offer a coherent framework for strategic CSR initiatives. Integrating business and social needs takes more than good intentions and strong leadership:
A Framework for Speculation on The next Thirty-three Years, Macmillan, 1967.8 Lindblom, Politics Markets: The World's Political-Economic system, Basic books, 1977.9 Y. K. Sheng,
and Geopolitics) framework to map the five areas consistently. This allowed us to see the general patterns of preferences
In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
manage and minimise risk within a framework that seeks to eliminate uncertainty, as opposed to recognising its inevitability.
He is interested also in the topic of framework conditions of innovation such as public procurement of innovation or standardization.
Rauschmayer, F. and Risse, N. 2005),‘A framework for the selection of participatory approaches for SEA''
inventory of measures, typology of non-intentional effects and a framework for policy packaging, available at:
B not trying to solve problems using the same frame they emerged from; B generating new solutions to issues;
By simply thinking about a possible future (the purchase of the flat), you have changed your frame.
B deconstructing an existing frame to explain or demonstrate to others that they are stuck in one frame;
and B an ability to deliberately switch frames. In addition to using Reframing to enable a change in the way we see,
think about, and understand things, we are often utterly unaware of how our ways of seeing are driven
which one works and lives in determines how one thinks (the mental model or frame),
For example, providing an awareness of existing frames and ways of seeing, demonstration that those ways of seeing are driven
and being able to deconstruct an existing frame to demonstrate that a particular way of seeing is being used.
reframing enables deliberate switching between frames to generate new experiment variations and options. There are at least three key ideas, Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009),
3/4. Ringland, G. 2010),‘Frameworks for coping with post-normal times: a response to Ziauddin Sardar'',Futures, Vol. 42 No. 6, pp. 633-9. Schwartz, P. 1991), The Art of the Long View:
A threeleeve framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society.
This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation.
Here we will present a three-level framework that does just this. In this paper we will address the issue how useful assessments can be made, given the enormous,
We will develop a three-level framework, which enables to trace the dynamics of expectations
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
Second, at the level of the EU, a 6th framework programme has been approved. The Nanosafe project assesses the risks involved in the production
Society Technological field (Research group Market Basic research Fig. 7. Main findings located within the three-level framework.
Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.
the levels in the three-level framework are interrelated. A few examples from the case where this is visible will now be highlighted.
The three-level framework makes it possible to gather findings of these first indications. As nanotechnology is still in the early phases of development
The three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation.
By applying the framework dynamically it was possible to identify emerging irreversibilities that directly relate to the case.
When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills. This conceptual model may vary a lot from one country to other.
Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.
For this purpose, the conceptual framework displaying the standard urban planning process, shown in Figure 1, is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025).
There is a strong regulatory framework to restrict new urban development to a minimum, in favour of rehabilitation processes.
B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
not only a common framework through which to define, distinguish and articulate the growing number of instruments, approaches and procedures,
In a rather unusual initiative within the general framework of legal research, The hague Institute for the Internationalisation of Law (Hiil) began in 2010‘‘a unique forward-looking exercise in the field of law:
First, within a framework of tighter governmental budgets and stronger international competition, policy-makers involved in regulatory policies are being held more accountable for the significant economic resources,
A Framework for Speculation on The next Thirty-Three Years, Macmillan, New york, NY. Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. 2011),‘Combining quantitative and qualitative in FTA:
and tested. 2. Assessment of emerging technologies changing framework and new questions Technology assessment (TA) is a scientific,
there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
and have to be determined on a case-by-case basis, taking the contextual framework into account 10.
or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development
Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored, as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships, with support of FTA,
and try and fit these disturbing signals in existing narrative and ontological frames. If the fit does not work,
Although evidence-based policy-making may be practically useful in the sense that it generates a common frame for policy debates,
Foresight efforts can probably best be organised using reflective learning and knowledge creation as their theoretical framework. If innovation is importaant we probably should give relatively little weight for trend extrapolations,
1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
A framework for research methods (adapted from Meredith et al. 1989,139). selection of methods used in FTAINDICATING the nature of the knowledge (ignorance) each assumes to be present along the two axes.
The first step in the practical use of the framework is to understand that FTA strives to identify:
processes and artefacts that are now firmly in the social frame where FTA might be expected to be concerned.
A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
An analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy 28, no. 9: 625 40.
and strategic management produced the conceptual framework that we illustrate in the following sections. Matching strategic foresight with environmental uncertainty:
which considers a larger set of framework variables, such as national regulations or exchange rates, and market issues, such as moves by suppliers and established competitors.
our findings offer the broad outline of a conceptual framework regarding how decision-makers match strategic foresight with environmental uncertainty.
Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.
in order to improve the construct and internna validity of our conceptual framework. However, much additional research must be done for improving and expanding this conceptual framework through the study of environmental uncertaiint and foresight activities in other industries and firms.‘
‘Boundary'uncertainty in particular offers interesting avenues for further investigation. Our arguments suggest that a crucial issue is the ability to distinguish continuous drivers of change from discontinuous ones.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
cmanchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR), Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, UK This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
This paper suggests a dynamic framework of continual learning to enable businesses to anticipate and address change in the networks within which they are embedded.
Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
to Be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
The current gaps that are being tackled by the proposed framework in comparison to the analysed tools are depicted also.
they need to be integrated to be considered as‘primary'for the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
The framework is dynamic to incorporate changes along the way and enable its own evolution following the organisation's
Nevertheless, the learning process (a feature of foresight) embedded in the proposed framework differs from the one entrenched in other management tools (Appendix 2) as learning also occurs according to the capabilities accumulated within the systems'operation.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical,
Table 2 outlines the main roles that FTA can play within such a framework. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 804 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 2. Contributions of FTA.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 805 Foresight cannot remove the uncertainties any business faces
inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
which puts the proposed managemeen framework into context. The latter shows some of the management tools currently in use and places the management framework at the top of the figure for comparison.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
Accountability 1000 framework standards, guidelines and professional qualification. http://www. accountability. org/(accessed June 2012.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 813 Boden, M.,C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman,
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and D. Loveridge Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
(mgmt) framework Operations Management tools/Systems/Frameworks Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Management Management Management Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Behaviours/Actions Operations
Model Model Model Framework Framework Framework SIGMA SIGMA SIGMA LCA LCA LCA NS NS NS ISO 14000 ENAS SA800 CP
whom and how Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
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