Roadmapping as a frame for constructing systemic transformation capacities Roadmapping, strategy processes, and capacity building We suggest that roadmapping is a felicitous method for fostering
and technologies in a certain time frame. The fifth way is to identify single targets in the roadmap structure.
Technology roadmapping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change 71:5 26.
An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy. Technological forecasting & Social Change 76:39 49. Smits, R,
3. Framework and data 3. 1. Framework The FIP framework includes four stages, broken down into 10 steps (Figure 1). We label Steps A j,
and potential users (Step E). Figure 1. Framework for forecasting NEST innovation pathways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 847 Step J,
This provides a framework for discussion and rapid feedback. Such visualisattion stimulate workshop interactions and create a framework for drawing out the intelligence held by the experts in the workshop,
a scaffold upon which to locate their knowledge. Figure 7 presents a post-workshop depiction of main alternative development pathways.
4. 6. Explore innovation components (Step G) Figure 7 provides the framework to explore sensitivities and options.
and positioned in a time frame; and obstacles and opportunities that will facilitate or inhibit progress along a particular pathway can be located.
Is the risk framework adequaate The innovation pathways call attention to a need to address such issues that could affect DSSC development
Notes 1. The FIP framework is designed to put tools to work in a systematic way
An analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy 28, no. 9: 625 41.
Towards a combined framework for the analysis of innovation processes. Understanding processes in sustainable innovation journeys, Utrecht. van Merkerk, R. O,
A conceptual framework. The Journal of Technology transfer 33, no. 6: 653 66. Porter, A l. 2010. Technology foresight:
Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
that is, a framework for reaching goals. Each scenario was supposed to be centered on drawing up the desired future
It appears that the effort to grasp these future events systematically in a framework will gain importance.
and cross-cultural cooperative management 11-C Service management, management in the education and research field, environment business management, governmental institution management 11-D Framework for facilitation
and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
Combination of information obtained from studies conducted independently under a common framework could be regarded as an acceptable approach to take every advantage of method employed
which research framework could lead to the better understanding of the overall picture and the direction toward the future.
governments provide a foundation and framework for research, set focus areas, and thus ultimately shape the future.
We present a seven-step process that is suitable as a generic framework for defining the most appropriate approach to a given situation to support research policy making.
2006) consider three theoretical frameworks to derive effective methods and techniques in a range of dialogue situations.
and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
Table I Overview of theoretical frameworks developed by Welp et al. 2006) with relevance to strategic dialogues Model/framework Relevance to strategic dialogues Rational actor paradigm (RAP) The RAP assumes that all individuals maximize their personal benefit without communication with,
or consideration of, others Although the RAP is viewed skeptically by Welp et al.,it does provide guidance for strategic dialogues.
and requirements of stakeholders and research areas there are recurring patterns in the context of research policy making that can be structured in a seven-step framework shown in Figure 1 and described in the following sections. 4. 1 Step 1:
Thus, a constructive framework for further discussions throughout the process can be established. 4. 2 Step 2:
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
They are intended as illustrations of the framework outlined above and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
2, 3, 4 in the framework outlined above. In a second phase, a survey of previous funding programs showed a need for initiatives to exploit the potential of‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0
PAGE 26 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 5. 2 Strategic dialogue to generate a joint vision for forward-looking projects Another strategic dialogue was conducted for a so-called‘‘Forward-looking Project''in the framework
In this example, all seven steps in the framework outlined above involved both the BMBF and the Forschungsunion Wirtschaft-Wissenschaft,
Cagnin, C. and Loveridge, D. 2011),‘A business framework for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and transformative change and lead business networks towards sustainable development,
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
This meta-analysis used an assessment framework, which formed the basis of the subsequent project catalogue,
Table I Drivers and trends assessment framework 1 Overview description; rationale and evidence 2 Potential impact (global and national;
and trends through a scoring framework. A scale of 1-5 was used for likelihood and impact.
and trends was the potential marginalisation of Ireland within multilateral frameworks: Challenge: Ireland‘‘punches above its weight''in international arenas achieving a strong reputation as an independent country with good governance and respect for its global commitments and partnerships.
However, Ireland is challenged in maintaining this position as the smaller countries become increasingly marginalised within multilateral frameworks
This was manifested in different ways (including the relationship of Ireland with Europe and the wider world through multilateral frameworks.
The marginalisation of Ireland (as a small country) within multilateral frameworks was identified as a challenge by participants in the exercise.
This study was implemented in the framework of the Programme of Fundamental Studies of the Higher School of economics in 2011. been active in the development of long-term strategies for the rational use of natural resources and in the sphere of environmental protection.
So, in the framework of this analysis we show how the results of one project are added to the results of the following project,
In the framework of the Delphi survey each topic was evaluated by the following criteria: B importance to Russia;
These issues were analysed deeply in the FS2 framework. 3. 2 National S&t Foresight: 2030 (FS2) The aim of this study was an evaluation of required resources
In the FS2 framework, the sector's needs for and availability of human, financial and infrastructure resources were analysed,
The following structural components of the natural resources sector were analysed in the framework of the project:
In the FS1 framework S&t topics were assessed by different criteria, and in the FS2 framework technology groups were assessed (identified on the basis of the most important and well-developed FS1 topics).
The FS2 criteria for the evaluation of technology groups were identified mostly on the basis of the results of FS1 (see Table I). National S&t Foresight:
and key limitations for S&t development (FS2) created the framework and demands for the identification in FS3 of innovation priorities (see Table III).
in the FS1 framework a large database of promising S&t areas was created; this allowed policy makers to derive a wide range of an information, for example:
These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework. This study provided a more profound knowledge of national competitive advantages the resources required for development of the most important S&t areas,
and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities
In the framework of this study proposals to amend the relevant RF Ministry of Natural resources strategic documents (for example, Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation
The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.
and research projects as a basis for the selection of projects to be funded Direct (medium) FS3 In the framework of this study,
This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions.
Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity
and financed by the European commission within the framework of the Foresight Knowledge sharing Platform implemented under the Research Framework programme (FP7).
Therefore, the standard classification framework provides an easy way to take an aggregated and structured view to see the future science
The technology concept in future technology themes is mapped by the classification framework and the interaction between technologies is identified through a causal effect analysis. Similarities
By providing a consistent classification framework the mapping and comparison of future technology options from different countries/regions become more effective.
from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
In addition, since the IPC code provides a hierarchical framework for mapping future technology themes, demonstration of the future technology trajectory and intelligence in different level of technology scope is possible.
All three components of FTA draw on the theoretical framework of several disciplines. Further, actual FTA projects exploit results of scientific research
Finally, a truly innovative research effort is required to devise methodological and conceptual frameworks, approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking,
The FTA TOOLS used to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology in these two countries differ along time.
which is used then as a framework for classifying current FTA practices. Section 4 reflects on the obstacles that may be preventing a faster
Nugroho and Saritas 42 propose a framework for this, building on online foresight survey data, and by pointing at benefits in the various phases of a foresight process:
'and can offer a wider framework in which quantitative and qualitative approaches could contribute to addressing the same problem.
(and in fact are adopted in the framework of quantitative analyses as well. On the other hand, qualitative approaches have been adopted for many decades (e g. scenarios) with no other involvement than that of the FTA EXPERTS.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 sciences, Cameron 71 developed the Five Ps Framework, 13 which provides a mixed-methods starter kit,
and tools provide as far as possible a 13 The 5 P's Framework includes Paradigms, Pragmatism, Praxis,
and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
New research efforts are required to devise methodological and conceptual frameworks, approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking,
the five ps framework, Electron. J. Bus. Res. Methods 9 (2)( 2011) 96 108.72 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making:
The research framework is designed as follows (Fig. 2). 2. 1. Indicators and data source The most fundamental and challenging task is to select suitable indicators and data sources.
Framework of TLC analysis. 400 L Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 in DII by application year for the Application indicator and count the number of patents in DII by priority year for the Priority indicator
and we are witnessing today an intense debate on duniversal Darwinismt as a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open,
An evolutionary approach within the framework of danthropology of techniquet is a necessary step to grasp adequately these concepts.
and we are witnessing today an intense debate on duniversal Darwinismt as a broad theoretical framework for the analysis of the evolution of all open,
In fact Darwinism includes a broad theoretical framework for the evolution of all open, complex systems, including socioeconomic systems,
This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques,
Section 2 introduces an adaptive policy-making framework and our Adaptive Robust Design approach. Section 3 contains the energy transition case and the illustration of our approach to it.
the adaptive policy-making framework and the Adaptive Robust Design approach 2. 1. The adaptive policy-making framework Under deep uncertainty,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 Fig. 1 shows a framework that operationalizes the high level outline of adaptive policy-making.
A possible qualitative approach for Fig. 1. Steps of the Adaptive Policy-making Framework. Source: 1. 410 C. Hamarat et al./
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is structured through workshops 35.
A possible quantitative approach for operationalizing the Adaptive Policy-making Framework is by using Exploratory Modeling and Analysis 36 38.
The troublesome regions and the promising regions correspond respectively to vulnerabilities and opportunities in the adaptive policy-making framework.
However, by connecting this to a particular framework for the design of adaptive policies, our approach is more specific on the various ways in
and uses a modified version of the expected utility framework 44, our approach does not entail such a stance.
the actor-options framework for modelling socio-technical systems, in: Policy analysis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.6 P. Eykhoff, System Identification:
and its success in predicting a wide array of different phenomena 2. It brought together the celestial realm and the sublunar realm in a single explanatory framework 2, 3. Moreover,
This uncertainty is reflected in a distinguished set of possible long-term future images that are derived often from a multi-axes framework of the most important but uncertain drivers of change.
whereas roadmapping provides a framework for condensing all information in one map and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios.
and establishing a common vision among the innovation stakeholders as a boundary framework before moving into technology roadmapping 70.4.2.2.
June 7th 2007.78 A. Stirling, A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society, J. R. Soc.
to develop governance frameworks and to address national innovation systems. In the case of nanotechnology, a variety of FTA ACTIVITIES have been in use over the last quarter of a century to structure the field itself
where a similar governance framework as in the case of nanotechnology is discussed 10 (M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
Despite these different traditions, both countries used FTA to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology. 3. Future-oriented technology analysis of nanotechnology in the US
an inter-organizational governance framework is crucial to uptake the knowledge as well as the requirements derived from various stakeholders.
Towards a Common Strategic Framework for EU. COM (2011) 48, Green Paper, European commission, Brussels, 2011.5 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, IWGN, E. A t.,The Interagency
INFU was financed by the European commission in the 7th Framework programme Area Social sciences and Humanities (SSH. It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.
In Section 2 we outline the methodological framework of the INFU foresight exercise and highlight in particular the features that were foreseen to enable the capture of structural transformation.
the methodological framework comprised several specific elements. In particular, the following four features served to enable the discovery of structural change in innovation:
fed into a common framework, and published on the internet site of the project. For each signal of change a possible impact on the future of innovation was estimated in an intuitive manner by the project members
These two visions were excluded thereafter from further interpretation. 2. 3. Assessment of coverage of dimensions of change A third innovative feature developed within INFU to underpin the capture of structural change is the application of a framework of dimensions of change at the very beginning of the project.
This framework was developed by the project consortium based on the review of academic literature on innovation patterns
The framework developed within the INFU project supported an analysis of structural changes hinted at by several visions.
In a classical scenario building process participants'contributions are channelled through the scenario building framework. This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach.
the framework supported the extraction of the following structural changes in innovation patterns 30:1) Mediation and co-ordination:
Innovation Leadership Forum, UK (Russia) Three seminars in the framework of international conferences with researchers and company representatives in Nürnberg, London and Exeter) 4. City-driven systemic
The framework of dimensions of change used to assess the results of the signal screening phase enabled the INFU team to systematically question anticipatory assumptions and to reintroduce opposing views in a reflexive manner.
combining insights from innovation systems and multilevel perspective in a comprehensive‘failures'framework, Research policy 41 (2012) 1037 1042.
936.11 European commission, Communication from The Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic And Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Horizon 2020 The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, Brussels, 30.11.2011 COM
They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and often vociferous worry that a lack of shared sense-making frameworks might make it impossible to determine
None of the existing overarching frameworks was adequate. Looking at the technology side there was the clear problem, even failure,
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
without systematizing the knowledge accumulated into the kinds of sense making frameworks that enable researchers and policy makers to share,
and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.
At the moment many conversations in the foresight community point towards the emergence of a shared sense-making framework, one that could help to map current undertakings as well as,
indeed the processes for negotiating such shared sense-making frameworks are currently in full-swing, 1 there is evidence of the usefulness of an anticipatory systems approach.
and organization of anticipatory systems seems to offer shared sense-making framework for the FTA and Foresight communities.
There is no assurance that this particular conversation will fully address the lack of a shared sense-making framework made evident by the FTA PROCESSES
and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning. Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture
we introduce a conceptual framework of national traditions and governance culture for analysing foresight and priority setting in science,
time is merely a framework for orientation rather than something to be mastered. Adaption to upcoming changes might be considered more important in these countries.
and it could constitute a common reference framework for the Danish Parliament's political negotiations for the allocation of resources for strategic research.
We have shown an improved framework for comparing and analysing national differences on foresight. However, there is still much to be understood about national governance cultures'effects on foresight,
and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process. For example policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use
Examples range from the European commission through the Framework programmes and its Joint research Centre, the OECD through its International Futures Programme, UNIDO through its Technology foresight Initiative, the Asian-Pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Centre for Technology foresight, the UK Foresight
Cultural differences, language barriers, institutional practices, regulatory frameworks, capacities and capabilities of participants to contribute as well as more practical difficulties,
intelligent manufacturing systems (IMS) 2020 IMS2020 was an FP7 project funded by the NMP division of the European commission within the IMS Framework, conducted by an international consortium of 15 core partners and a large group
The JRC-IPTS presented a framework for the initial discussions in order to shape the key questions to be addressed (Fig. 1) and alternative ways to answer these.
as well as the use of Fig. 1. IMS2020 initial framework. C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.
4. Devising a framework, according to Fig. 3 (below), based on the main impact dimensions which were used to select the snapshots to be developed.
5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework. At first, JRC-IPTS proposed that the snapshots to be developed should be those at the corner of each quadrant.
and a regulatory framework co-designed between governments, industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
Results are currently being used to develop further framework programme (FP) 7 calls and in shaping future RI calls from 2014.
At the same time, new schemes and frameworks to support manufacturing systems research are being developed. These are intended to stimulate small and medium enterprises (SMES) to participate in international cooperative research and development (R&d) projects.
The proposed framework (Fig. 1) offers guidance across variety of practical dimensions, including: how to link strategic objectives with the operational activities to be performed;
The framework also helps to focus discussions related to the design and implementation of the project by bringing together the identification and discussion of intended impacts with efforts to define each operational step and question related to guiding the process.
and results to be adaptable to changes such as evolving client needs (from a list of priorities for research collaboration feeding the framework programme).
State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,
in the vision building Roadmaps Stocktaking of the results from other phases Inclusion of multiple dimensions in roadmapping frame Intensive online panel work Cross feeding among different roadmaps to coordinate
could have been justified in the IMS2020 project to gain more insight on the developments of different systems. 10 The mentioned framework has been used by JRC-IPTS in a number of projects
and the snapshots to be developed within a framework which was constructed jointly. In fact sixteen possible snapshots were discussed briefly
During the kickoff meeting the JRC-IPTS framework (Fig. 1) was used to present different alternatives to achieve the intended impacts,
or develop new frameworks. These would require long-lasting decision processes within the public, the political decision structures,
pro-actively, innovation-promoting regulatory framework conditions, which are crucial for the competitiveness of national or regional innovation systems. 3 For further information:
These disciplines could provide frameworks to analyse some of the advantages and benefits of FTA APPROACHES.
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
'The paper presents a conceptual framework outlining the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies, based on a review of the available literature.
and received funding from the European union Seventh Framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n°246016.
Such a classification could be a first step towards an integrated framework comprising different ways to introduce the future
considering a new regulatory framework and competitive environment. The objective was to change the current management model based on improvisation
Annual British Academy of Management Conference, 2008.6 F. Okumus, A framework to implement strategies in organizations, Management Decision 41 (2003) 871 882.7 D c. Hambrick, A a
a framework for management control systems research, Management Accounting Research 10 (1999) 363 382.60 H. Norreklit, The balance on the balanced scorecard a critical analysis of some of its assumptions, Management Accounting
For the former the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) is utilized as analytical framework and applied to three cases.
the CIM is introduced as an analytical framework and the categorization of foresight is explained. This is followed by the description of the three cases according to the CIM concepts.
and openness of the three networks we applied the Cyclic Innovation Model as an analytical framework.
the link of future orientation, futures research and the network is analyzed by connecting the CIM analysis with the character of the foresight activities. 3. 2. Analytical framework 3. 2. 1. The Cyclic Innovation Model The main
The founding partners decided on a public private partnership (PPP) as their preferred framework to support collaborative innovation activities
The EICT Gmbh provides a legal framework and platform for collaboration covering the entire innovation process, from inception to successful completion.
and a legal framework for the free flow of information is created. Specifically, the partners are supported at several stages of the Table 3 Networked foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat.
the partners created a framework to facilitate the exchange of knowledge with predefined rules and clear IPR boundaries.
and higher education. 4. 3. 2. Process model In the innovation framework instruments for sharing, exchanging and developing knowledge were created,
/Futures 59 (2014) 62 78 72 provide frameworks for open innovation emerged in the last few years, e g.,
and frequent reporting duties equal to those of significantly larger projects subsidized in the European Framework Programs (FPS) not only significantly slow down the network's activities,
and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
An Integrated Framework of Cyclic Networks for the Assessment of Technological change and Sustainable growth, Delft University Press, Delft, 2000.48 G. Berkhout, The Cyclic Nature of Innovation.
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