framework scenarios

Framework scenarios

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Synopsis: Framework: Framework scenarios:

ART10.pdf

the alternative preferred in AF is to develop a set of multifaceted framework scenarios (also known as context or external scenarios.

and the whole set of scenarios should represent the full range of most salient such issues as well as possible (for tractability the number of framework scenarios is held normally at just three or four).

which are likely to create trend-breaks form a useful starting point for drafting framework scenarios. Before the actual sketching,

It is also useful to start 27 These criteria for good framework scenarios are developed based on a set of criteria often used in the Shell/GBN tradition

specification of exploratory framework scenarios In either of the cases at the end of Phase 2, the scenario ideas need much additional development.

what connect the framework scenarios with the addressee's area of responsibility. Their exploration could usefully be started at the initial workshop,

and if possible continued at a subsequent workshop when well worked-out framework scenarios are available.

and interact under various framework scenarios. In back-office work also the same types of simulation models as in Phase 3 can be useful. 476 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75

identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.

but within the confines of the respective framework scenarios. Moreover, by staging the pathways leading to the realisation of different scenarios

ART22.pdf

Inductive approaches, in opposition to deductive approaches, are guided not by a structuring Framework scenarios rather evolve by brainstorming events and spinning larger stories around these events.

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