| Idea (463) |  |
| Thinking (196) | |
The starting point and ideas behind the organisation of the Seminar were to learn and consolidate from the recent rejuvenation and growth in future-oriented technology analyses (FTA).
In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
and standardisation that evaluation encourages with the creativity and dwild cardt nature of many of the ideas implicit in good FTA.
visions and techniques will challenge current evaluation processes and ideas. Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders
and thereby encouraging widespread innovation in organisational responses to the challenges of the future. 6. Importing ideas As might be expected of a session dealing with new ideas on FTA there was a wide diversity of suggestions and issues presented.
Based on this realisation, any approach to policy or business strategy based on the idea of early identification of winners must be subject to serious doubts.
achievements and deficits In the light of insights from research on innovation and technological change, much foresight thinking and practice have struck us as somewhat over-simplistic and in particular over-optimistic in its hopes, e g. with respect to the ability to mobilise innovation system stakeholders to act
and 1980s were influenced strongly by the linear idea that the consensus achieved in Delphi could serve as a forecast and thus as a foundation for taking preparatory actions to exploit emerging technologies.
and combined it with the idea of being able to secure through national policy a leading edge in selected technologies 10.
This strand of thinking has been developed by many researchers and practitioners over a considerable time-span.
One explanation for this state of affairs is the proximity to commonsense thinking and everyday usage of terms like robustness
In a one-shot exercise, the idea is to find the most robust such structure, perhaps a combination of those originally envisaged achieved by buying
You can do a research project usingmany of the ideas from AF, but the full benefits can only be realised in a consultancy project working closely with a client.
or bad. 27 An external drivers'workshop is performed in a structured brainstorming format where participants first get to upload their ideas on drivers.
This can be done in a verbal dialogue where the facilitator (s) in a tour de table format asks each participant at a time to enter a new idea,
In order to come up with new and fresh ideas for policy options comparative analysis of other countries'practices can be instructive. 3. 2. 9. Phase 8:
it enhances the effectiveness of forward-thinking by including both collective and single-actor processes,
it supports strategic thinking about portfolios of options across different scenarios and during different phases of the policy cycle.
Such applications are well in line with early ideas on using real options for bridging the gap between strategic planning and investment 51.
which is a variant of the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology for the analysis of innovation ideas and innovative concepts 9, 10,18, 19.
In the context of Woodwisdom-Net, it was employed by regarding research issues as tentative ideas for possible projects that might be promoted in the international program.
whereby the participants were invited to put forth their thoughts on them (approx. 1. 5 h). Second, within each 492 V. Brummer et al./
foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.
The New approach, confirmed by the recent ideas on European governance, requires the standards to be considered which complement or even substitute governmental regulations in comprehensive regulatory impact assessments
lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis The vision of performing laboratory experiments at a micro or even nanoscale was posed first by Terry 50 who linked the idea of integrated microelectronics to the notion of integrated
The idea of a generic platform is contended still (this contention was included in one of the three socio-technical scenarios)
and practice for thinking about the future Overcome path dependency and lock ins Collective learning through an open exchange of experiences Accumulation of experience in using foresight tools and thinking actively about the future Lower level goals:
interdepartmental and interdisciplinary space needed for forward thinking on science-based issues. Impacts were grouped 11 See for example 2, 3, 8, 15 17.
As Molina concludes the key is to generate a climate of positive thinking. There seems to be a subtle psychological transition from making positive contributions to the discussions to becoming active members of the constituency.
The very idea behind participatory programmes is to bring together different stakeholders with their diverse sets of accumuulate knowledge and experience,
assuming a unity of teaching and research, based on the idea of higher education through exposure to,
The ideas presented here, therefore, can only be taken as points of departure for two types of activities.
They are tools for thinking about the future, which will be shaped partly through deliberate strategies and actions, partly by factors beyond the control of decision-makers. 4,
and thus encourage‘outside the box'thinking could be that universities disappear and their functions are assumed by new players,
They would seek new partners, new funding sources, new ideas for their curricula and research, as well as new roles and responsibilities.
Given the importance of strategic thinking in this field, prospective activities of universities should be promoted by organising awareness-raising events at regional,
A. Smith, F. Webster, Changing Ideas of the University, in: The Postmodern University? Contested Visions of Higher education in Society.
and policy and decision makers to share their ideas and knowledge in order to make FTA more policy relevant.
A Case for Critical systems Thinking in Nanotechnology; examines how vitally important the foresight objective of inclusiveness in the embracement of diverse stakeholders is for the credibility of an innovation process.
In the following paragraphs some ideas about the organization of technological knowledge is described; this knowledge is coupled with the institutional environment of distributed knowledge production.
eliminating older ideas, and thereby creating a new set of design concepts and a new configuration of components technologies.
The primary role of the designer should involve creative recombination of new ideas. If the routine process of exploring for new technological components can be automated,
The role of the following paragraphs is to unpack the ideas inherent in the use of a random hierarchical graph
and to compare these ideas with prevalent theories in the philosophy and sociology of science. The goal in doing this survey is neither to validate the use of the model,
or deny selected ideas in the philosophy of science. Rather, by confronting observations with the context of discussion provided by philosophy,
Derrida's ideas informed Callon and others who developed actor network theory as a vehicle for research in science and technology 33.
Policy 14 (1985) 235 251.17 J. P. Dismukes, Technologies of thinking'seen key to accelerated radical innovation, Res.
A New approach toweb Applications, 2005, Retrieved 15 may 2007, from http://www. adaptivepath. com/ideas/essays/archives/000385. php. 27 W3c (World wide web Consortium), Roadmap
More specifically, foresight related thinking was applied to three key elements of decision processes: context conditions, options and value considerations.
The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.
A meta-analysis of 80 scenario processes in the U s. found that these processes were started with a clear idea of the desired results
Therefore, the idea of an organizational integration of the associations had been raised. Political actors of the region were keen on developing a perspective for the future of the sanitation system to avoid singular investments,
While the RIF process in the Kiesental resulted in little surprise with the already prior favored idea for a future sanitation system,
. A. Wilderer, Some thoughts about future perspectives of water and wastewater management, Water Sci. Technol. 49 (5 6)( 2004) 35 37.10 T. Larsen, W. Gujer, Waste design and source control lead to flexibility in wastewater management, Water Sci.
in order to further develop the ideas. The first issue is reflected in the new VTT organisation and its multidisciplinary technology foresight team, consisting of researchers with experience on foresight, technology assessment and risk assessment studies,
Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.
gain network thinking and action. They need to focus on strategic thinking and acting towards the future success and exclusively on the current success. The process begun from very general phenomena of politics, society,
economics and technology, applying big amount of creative brainstorming approaches ending to two potential scenarios.
One opportunity was selected for more thorough concept development including iterative steps of idea generation and enrichment,
relevant collaborative networks and future actions. o Diverse future perspectives refer to understanding diverse ideas, opinions and perspectives in priority-setting,
The core idea is to share the knowledge and create in that way developed knowledge which is more than the sum of its elements.
One core idea in risk management is to find out early warning signals and near miss situations and learn lessons from them
The same idea goes to foresight exercises where wild cards and weak signals reveal the potential future or give tips for the future. 4. 2. Contingent
The same idea belongs also to the holistic risk management where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 5 European commission, Thinking, Debating and Shaping the Future:
XXV Nordic Hydrological Conference Northern Hydrology and its Global Role (NHC-2008), Reykjavík, Iceland. 11 13,august 2008, 2008.38 B. Walker, D. Salt, Resilience Thinking.
an idea before its time is apt to result in derision and dismissal 3. T. J. Gordon et al./
However, just when then does an idea about the future move from wild speculation to plausible and worthy of consideration?
Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking and new approaches, expand its utility,
In the knowledge-value society, innovation, technology development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas, and their active exploitation, are all inherent elements contributing to the basic values and culture of the society.
like the idea of including interactive and mobile media skills to science education curriculum at the elementary level. 3. 3. Synthesizing discussion Each technology barometer consists of concluding discussions of certain topical issues
so as to be able to convert research based ideas into products and commercialize andmarket themwith increasing efficiency.
Identification of knowledge-based commercial ideas requires competence development, in basic technologies and business thinking alike,
bibliometric analysis and a new approach of inventor scouting to bring in new ideas. In this second phase, the most interesting (crosscutting) topics from the starting phase were elaborated further by the topic coordinators with specific expertise.
New ideas are expected that make it possible to harvest the energy from different environments and transfer it into miniaturized machines.
but also solid knowledge about thinking, feeling, communication and behaviour. The dynamic interplay at the borders of disciplines is the focus that opens up a new perspective.
and implementation phase An international workshop at the beginning of October 2008 marked the link to generate ideas for recommendations concerning policies
along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.
You can do a research project using many of the ideas from AF but the full benefits can only be realised in a consultancy project working closely with a client.
which incorporated much of the thinking from the Environment Agency's preceding Flood and Coastal Defence Project.
The compartmentalized structure of modern governments is a key barrier to more integrated policy thinking and decision-making
Long-term thinking does not have a uniform relationship with strategy and policy-making. Context is crucial. Many practitioners consider scenario building to be a craft or art of challenging mind-sets in strategic conversations about long-term futures.
References 1 Wavfrify, The role of futures thinking in government: report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:
A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology Denis Loveridge, Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK a r
none of their ideas have been used in practice and to that extent they are original. Many of their indications fall into the realm of behavioural science and the behavioural styles of participants,
'Similarly, because the present ideas are concerned with the practical achievement, with all its shortcomings, of Inclusive foresight, innovation research,
However, there were also some discrepancies that led to the idea of a bifurcation above the Belonger level,
Critical thinking is then reflexive allowing debate about alternative assumptions. The latter is an essential feature as there is no single‘right'way to decide interventions in situations as their context
or idea is used in place of another to suggest a likeness or analogy between them. Here the metaphor is an analogy to
the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking and policy,'7, 3, 31 47. We also wish to thank SRI Business intelligence for permission to reproduce the VALS 1 in Fig. 1. Appendix A a summary of the VALS 1 Lifestyle Hierarchy (with acknowledgements to Arnold Mitchell
The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy 7 (3)( 2005) 31 47.4 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.5 A. Barker, B
Critical systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers, Working Paper No. 23,1998. 1220 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 23
and the journeys that will be taken from idea to technical application well embedded in society. In the field of nanotechnology these challenges are compounded further due to the early stage of nano developments
theory and concepts Recent thinking about innovation adds up to a general idea that technology emergence is a process of innovation and selection shot through with anticipations (c. f. quasi-evolutionary
The idea from evolutionary economics of a selection environment indicates the part played by economic, institutional and social factors in shaping a technology. 4 Braun for example describes the early notions of innovation as being characterised by a‘linear'view of innovation as an automatic spill over process between basic knowledge
In this project on RRIWE add a further conceptualization using the idea of arenas of innovation and selection
+a mosaic of arenas for innovation and selection At the time of the Constructive TA project, a method of combining ideas of innovation journeys amidst evolving landscapes (coevollutio of innovation/selection processes
The idea of endogenous future is midway between attempts at prediction (which are always precarious)
Ideas of responsible development of nanotechnology have been in circulation for a while now, but by the end of 2007 they were solidifying into policy and regulation.
Lack of lifecycle thinking in nanoparticles and engineered tissue causes real concerns by both environmental agencies (the former) and clinicians (the latter.
as a result of the factors associated with the novelty of the ideas/controversies involved in the process,
and research programmes foresight or not do strategic thinking and set up smaller or larger, formal or informal,
Hence, foresight challenges traditional-thinking (or Mode 1-oriented) research communities in at least two ways. First, foresight exercises include future societal and economic needs and possibilities in the setting of priorities.
even though by some authors the term‘foresight'has also been used regarding prospective thinking in corporate strategy.
and not with visionary thinking and long-term action. This creates a lot of misunderstanding and even mistrust in these processes.
and plans and too little in strategic thinking and strategic action. Hence this raises the question of what the various actors understand as strategy.
but the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists (Lindblom 1959;
and that part of the discipline of strategy inspired by Michael E. Porter's thinking. Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.
As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
who were also able to articulate broader, cross-disciplinary thoughts about the developmmen of research in their field.
but quite a few also included thoughts on education and on the potential industrial and societal Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 925 impacts of the suggested research.
and technology this does not seem to have influenced significantly strategic thinking and strateggi processes in Danish research councils and research programmes.
but the process should also be designed to include thoughts about the‘policy toolbox'in the process itself.
to instil creative thinking; to overcome suspicions of some of the methods common to foresight; to ensure sustained, consistent participation;
first, to call on the public research institutes to submit ideas for new research programmes; and second, to use a foresight exercise to identify
the FNR first issued a call to the research community to submit ideas for new programmes.
The research community's ideas were dismissed therefore and the proposed foresight exercise was given the go-ahead by the Board,
which was supportive of the idea of a foresight exercise. Later on, it even requested the Fund to broaden the scope of the analysis from the‘mere'definition of new FNR programmes to the identification of nationwide research priorities, i e.‘
Discussion around this point tended to get tied up with the idea of identifying new‘competence niches'for Luxembourg to exploit.
Some particiipant particularly those who were already critical of the performance of the public research centres believed that the exercise was flawed by relying so heavily upon the ideas and visions of existing researchers.
The exercise also brought in foreign experts to challenge any‘narrow'thinking on the part of local researchers,
These individuals (or sometimes groups) were able to channel a strong idea into the exercise and push it to the end.
The results (ideas) of an exercise can only be translated into reality if there is somebody ready to act on it,
but interactive tools were made available to offer the public an opportunity to contribute to the process with own ideas and proposals throughout the whole period (www. wiendenktzukunft. at).
but there was little room given to outsiders with unconventional ideas. As a consequence, some of the initiatives that were put forward in the process were not really new,
and the idea of shaping the future by influencing public policy and strategic decisions. 3 In their seminal paper on‘Inclusive foresight'Loveridge and Street (2005) argue that the credibiilit of foresight is dependent on extending participation to social stakeholders, especially those not normally seeking participation themselves.
The idea of an‘image'of stakeholders is used here not in a managerial sense, as in the image of an organisation or firm which continuously has to be updated
and organisations share a similar idea of this particular social group and their participatory potential. The present case of a Norwegian municipal vision project points to the often implicitly assumed shared understanding of who young people are
as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
which ideas of the future should be labelled as‘desired 'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context.
Before and after the phase in which the schoolchildren's ideas were collected, a telephone survey was conducted with the 20 municipality schools about their intentions to participate in the project
which the idea of assumed shared values collided with the ideal of community engagement. 9 The following discussion of how an image of schoolchildren as stakeholders
Among the activities suggested by the community council was expressed the idea by the mayor of Lundal:‘
and giving priority to their ideas about Lundal's future was expressed by the community council in September 2005:‘
This would be an advantageous precondition for developing their future ideas. Thus a specific social-economic image of young people as stakeholders was indispensable for their participation.
It is the ideas about what we should put effort into which are the most important
and these ideas might result in physical projects which the municipality can analyse later. 13 The image of young people as being free from capitalist motives was coupled with a clear request to leave out ideas about physical future projects.
Apparently the assumed essential absence of capitalist interests was not enough to direct the young people's ideas in the desired direction.
To avoid political discussions about unrealistic use of municipal areas resulting from the young Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 978 S. Jenssen Figure 2. Illustration by German cartoonist
Rainer Ehrt used by the vision project leader to underline the lack of capitalist interests in young people's ideas about the future.
Power point presentation, March 2006. people's suggestions, they were asked to focus on the‘well-being of citizens and on ideas about
more informed social groups to create their‘own'ideas. Another preconditionwas a request to imagine themselves as grownups.
They were asked to use their estimated age of about 30 years in 2020 as a starting point for their visionary ideas. 14
and desire and not be connected to an idea of their community in the future. 15 Furthermore, the project leadership presumed the children's ideas to be unstructured
and nonrefleective essentially mirroring their hopes, beliefs and concerns about the future. Therefore their ideas would have to be developed into short stories,
which would show desired descriptions of Lundal in 2020. These future pictures were to be written using expected trends in municipal developmmen coupled with the young people's ideas.
The finished stories were then to be discussed in workshops, one with participants from different service compartments of the municipality and one with politicians.
The project group suggested design depicted in Figure 3. The young students'ideas would thus be the initial creative input to the future pictures
'16 Result and outcome of the vision project According to the municipality's official project report, nine out of 20 secondary schools and colleges participated, with a reported outcome of 300 different ideas.
The municipal project leader ordered the ideas collected from the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Foresight and governance:
however, expressed surprise at how similar the young people's ideas were to their own political party programmes.
I cannot claim that there have been many revolutionary ideas. But this is the way society works; we are supposed not to come up with revolutionary ideas all the time.
I am not sure about this, but I am of the opinion that development in a municipality is suited not to especially deep reflection concerning all consequences...
if one wishes to do so. 17 Although the future ideas were presented as being created entirely by the young,
no juvenile wishes and demands connected to the present, no ideas about physical projects, only ideas about social well-being and a clear dissociation from too fantastic notions.
Through both image construction and the pre-processual framing of contributions, the project leaders thus ensured that the future ideas contributed by the young were well within the possible and the desirable.
Economic No capitalist interests No ideas about physical projects! Political Their future ideas are unstructured basically and non-reflexive The contributions would need narrative structure
and other actors'input too fantastic ideas will be erased! Visioning at the service of‘good'Practitioners
and scholars have discussed the value of a futures approach in the field of community planning as not necessarily‘in discovering new factual knowledge about sustainable urban developmment
) The idea fits both the objectives of municipal visioning, and the approach proposed within inclusive foresiigh as giving room to lay knowledge and inclusive, non-expert participation.
It follows up on the idea of participation as not being based upon knowledge-founded authority but on representing an authentic social group, contributing perspectives and insights different from all the others.
The young people were asked to contribute with ideas matching their image as stakeholders already constructed.
what their own ideas about the future might be, based on the knowledge acquired by asking parents, friends and neighbours. 20 Nevertheless,
it cannot be too far away from the municipality's idea of the future. Otherwise they cannot share it.
According tovoß and Kemp (2006,4) reflexive governance‘refers to the problem of shaping societal development in the light of the reflexivity of steering strategies the phenomenon that thinking
This paper focuses on the idea that informative mining of S&t information resources can be done quickly and powerfully.
the panels also presented their thoughts as to how the focus areas might be developed best through R&i policy measures or other actions.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
and accepted only 56 of them, there was always the opportunity for a rich vein of ideas to be mined.
Recently also political science approaches have been advocating the idea that innovation in the environment of the political system needs a corresponding increase in complexity of the political system or
Here, Foresight can generate ideas on alternatives and recognise the diverse perspectives in priority setting 32,33
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:
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