Thinking

Creative thinking (5)
Critical thinking (6)
Long-term thinking (6)
Strategic thinking (19)
Thinking (160)

Synopsis: Thinking: Thinking:

achievements and deficits In the light of insights from research on innovation and technological change, much foresight thinking and practice have struck us as somewhat over-simplistic and in particular over-optimistic in its hopes, e g. with respect to the ability to mobilise innovation system stakeholders to act

This strand of thinking has been developed by many researchers and practitioners over a considerable time-span.

One explanation for this state of affairs is the proximity to commonsense thinking and everyday usage of terms like robustness

it enhances the effectiveness of forward-thinking by including both collective and single-actor processes,

it supports strategic thinking about portfolios of options across different scenarios and during different phases of the policy cycle.

whereby the participants were invited to put forth their thoughts on them (approx. 1. 5 h). Second, within each 492 V. Brummer et al./

foresight in the risk society, Technovation 19 (6 7)( 1999) 413 421.2 T. Jewell, International foresight's contribution to globalisation, Foresight The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy

and practice for thinking about the future Overcome path dependency and lock ins Collective learning through an open exchange of experiences Accumulation of experience in using foresight tools and thinking actively about the future Lower level goals:

interdepartmental and interdisciplinary space needed for forward thinking on science-based issues. Impacts were grouped 11 See for example 2, 3, 8, 15 17.

As Molina concludes the key is to generate a climate of positive thinking. There seems to be a subtle psychological transition from making positive contributions to the discussions to becoming active members of the constituency.

They are tools for thinking about the future, which will be shaped partly through deliberate strategies and actions, partly by factors beyond the control of decision-makers. 4,

and thus encourage‘outside the box'thinking could be that universities disappear and their functions are assumed by new players,

Given the importance of strategic thinking in this field, prospective activities of universities should be promoted by organising awareness-raising events at regional,

A Case for Critical systems Thinking in Nanotechnology; examines how vitally important the foresight objective of inclusiveness in the embracement of diverse stakeholders is for the credibility of an innovation process.

Policy 14 (1985) 235 251.17 J. P. Dismukes, Technologies of thinking'seen key to accelerated radical innovation, Res.

More specifically, foresight related thinking was applied to three key elements of decision processes: context conditions, options and value considerations.

The elaboration of scenarios supports self-reflection and learning as well as strengthens strategic thinking 26 by challenging individual and organizational worldviews 27.

A. Wilderer, Some thoughts about future perspectives of water and wastewater management, Water Sci. Technol. 49 (5 6)( 2004) 35 37.10 T. Larsen, W. Gujer, Waste design and source control lead to flexibility in wastewater management, Water Sci.

Resilience engineering originates from the resilience thinking of ecosysste dynamics 38 implying that ecosystems must cope with continuous changes and constant evolution.

gain network thinking and action. They need to focus on strategic thinking and acting towards the future success and exclusively on the current success. The process begun from very general phenomena of politics, society,

economics and technology, applying big amount of creative brainstorming approaches ending to two potential scenarios.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 5 European commission, Thinking, Debating and Shaping the Future:

XXV Nordic Hydrological Conference Northern Hydrology and its Global Role (NHC-2008), Reykjavík, Iceland. 11 13,august 2008, 2008.38 B. Walker, D. Salt, Resilience Thinking.

Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking and new approaches, expand its utility,

but also solid knowledge about thinking, feeling, communication and behaviour. The dynamic interplay at the borders of disciplines is the focus that opens up a new perspective.

which incorporated much of the thinking from the Environment Agency's preceding Flood and Coastal Defence Project.

The compartmentalized structure of modern governments is a key barrier to more integrated policy thinking and decision-making

Long-term thinking does not have a uniform relationship with strategy and policy-making. Context is crucial. Many practitioners consider scenario building to be a craft or art of challenging mind-sets in strategic conversations about long-term futures.

References 1 Wavfrify, The role of futures thinking in government: report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:

A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology Denis Loveridge, Ozcan Saritas Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK a r

Critical thinking is then reflexive allowing debate about alternative assumptions. The latter is an essential feature as there is no single‘right'way to decide interventions in situations as their context

the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking and policy,'7, 3, 31 47. We also wish to thank SRI Business intelligence for permission to reproduce the VALS 1 in Fig. 1. Appendix A a summary of the VALS 1 Lifestyle Hierarchy (with acknowledgements to Arnold Mitchell

The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy 7 (3)( 2005) 31 47.4 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.5 A. Barker, B

Critical systems Thinking for Citizens and Managers, Working Paper No. 23,1998. 1220 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1208 1221 23

theory and concepts Recent thinking about innovation adds up to a general idea that technology emergence is a process of innovation and selection shot through with anticipations (c. f. quasi-evolutionary

Lack of lifecycle thinking in nanoparticles and engineered tissue causes real concerns by both environmental agencies (the former) and clinicians (the latter.

and research programmes foresight or not do strategic thinking and set up smaller or larger, formal or informal,

Hence, foresight challenges traditional-thinking (or Mode 1-oriented) research communities in at least two ways. First, foresight exercises include future societal and economic needs and possibilities in the setting of priorities.

even though by some authors the term‘foresight'has also been used regarding prospective thinking in corporate strategy.

and not with visionary thinking and long-term action. This creates a lot of misunderstanding and even mistrust in these processes.

and plans and too little in strategic thinking and strategic action. Hence this raises the question of what the various actors understand as strategy.

and that part of the discipline of strategy inspired by Michael E. Porter's thinking. Porter's book from 1980 focused on the strategic management of a firms'external environment and on selecting a strategy to position a firm in the market (Porter 1990.

who were also able to articulate broader, cross-disciplinary thoughts about the developmmen of research in their field.

but quite a few also included thoughts on education and on the potential industrial and societal Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 925 impacts of the suggested research.

and technology this does not seem to have influenced significantly strategic thinking and strateggi processes in Danish research councils and research programmes.

but the process should also be designed to include thoughts about the‘policy toolbox'in the process itself.

to instil creative thinking; to overcome suspicions of some of the methods common to foresight; to ensure sustained, consistent participation;

The exercise also brought in foreign experts to challenge any‘narrow'thinking on the part of local researchers,

as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.

According tovoß and Kemp (2006,4) reflexive governance‘refers to the problem of shaping societal development in the light of the reflexivity of steering strategies the phenomenon that thinking

the panels also presented their thoughts as to how the focus areas might be developed best through R&i policy measures or other actions.

or leaders in the organization are reading, thinking about, and sharing informally with each other. But in today's world, arbitrary is insufficient.

He believes that organizations should regularly expose employees to chaos 7. The procedure avoids entrainment of thinking, a condition in

depending on what concerned individuals in the organization are reading, thinking about, and sharing informally with each other.

By collaborating in their thoughts about the future, organizationsmay be placed better to anticipate the actions of their customers, suppliers and others, such as regulators,

This thinking was also the basis of the‘‘open innovation''concept in that it recognises centrally that innovation is a process of interaction between firms

At the level of the firm there are problems of short-term and reactive thinking caused by a preoccupation with immediate business problems

The use of foresight approaches allows procurers to open up their thinking to technical or other solutions

and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications. The findings consist in probability based outcomes.

and thinking emerge. This initiative is designed to result in improved quality of defence policy. It is one of the source documents for the development of the UK Defence policy.

which provides opportunities for creative thinking and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.

Drawing upon these lines of thinking, consensual foresight objectives and diversity considerations are complementary perspectives which are needed both in attempts to enhance the performance of innovation systems:

and on ways of thinking about problem situations. Since FTA involves engaging with stakeholders or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,

by facilitating the processes of creative and lateral thinking, and asking difficult questions. The value-added here can be substantial.

as opposed to techniques that are designed to foster creative thinking and explore possibilities that are hard to capture in the more formal techniques.

encourage unconventional thinking, and engage key stakeholders. The two dimensions might be seen as reflecting the balance between knowledge from experts and knowledge within communities,

''Once we go beyond extrapolating specific trends or devising imaginative scenarios based on historical analogy or generalisation from supposed vanguards, towards thinking about innovation systems more generally,

Occasionally we may see some broader overview coming from such sources often on the basis of the authors having absorbed a great deal of FTA thinking from other sources such as Naisbitt's Megatrends

and knowledge One of the most influential contributions to thinking about organisational learning and KM has been the model of the dynamics of shared knowledge creation developed by Nonaka and Takeuchi 19.

This is one of those valuable tasks that encourage participants to step away from their standard ways of thinking about

The thinking about factors developed by different subgroups is written typically down in lists, with the most important drivers being earmarked

so that they can seriously incorporate the thinking of the workshop in their own decision-A. Eerola,

a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:

. Cole, C. Freeman, M. Jahoda, K. L. R. Pavitt, Thinking about the Future, Chatto & Windus, London, 1973,

Associated Business Programs, 1976.6 H. Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1962.7 H. Kahn, A. Weiner, The Year 2000:

opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues

Challenging Petersen's hypothesis, his additional thoughts on‘Cascading Discontinuity Sets'broke away from the idea of wild cards to introduce other types of interrelated events.

thanks to the collective thinking of Wikipedia 5 is that wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals,

Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions

K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,

Design/methodology/approach The main method applied is combined critical thinking with a review of selected aspects of complexity theory

but either way, a critical thinking approach can be helpful. Bringing together complexity theory, reframing and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better,

be applied better, and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).

By simply thinking about a possible future (the purchase of the flat), you have changed your frame.

but one is usually not even aware that thoughts are being channelled. The key insight of complexity-based foresight for policy making is that command

2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable

limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,

The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions

He concluded that there is a lack of critical thinking at epistemological and ontological levels in particular, and too much of a business-as usual mentality (Hames 2011b).

in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.

With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.

using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development. The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored,

Two sources of unpredictability In much of contemporary thinking, failures in prediction indicate a need to engage in further study and research.

the discussion during the elicitation unearths how the expert's thinking proceeds. How that responds to seeding his

or her thinking with unusual ideas stemming from over the horizon scanning relating to the various forms of ignorance is important.

In this way, a relationship between an expert's thinking processes and their representation as a subjective probability distribution can be built by creating a wider appreciation of the situation involved in the FTA.

Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1

Verbal equivalents to different probability levels (Alpert and Raiffa 1982) were used during this part of the elicitation to seed the interviewee's thinking processes.

Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.

using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.

The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:

and then to adjust the organisational thinking and actions for the future. This phase is where sustainability performance evolutionary leaps can occur bringing,

and other organisations would benefit from thinking explicitly in all of the four knowledge spaces discussed in the article.

Figure 7) stimulates thinking about factors affecting these, which in turn can trigger consideration about research, technology management,

It also has a long-term effect in that stakeholders who have been involved in the dialogue change their thinking

There is a persuasive view that that longer-term thinking and commitments PAGE 38 jforesight jvol. 15 NO 1 2013 are necessary to develop

approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as provide guidance for the identification of the features that may help the selection of the appropriate set of tools

which future thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions. It does so by analysing seventeen scenario-based projects to identify elements of good practices

Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking, create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process,

Hence, principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios require representation and collaboration as well as the integration of different modes of future thinking

the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy. His research activity has been focused mostly upon long-term policy

but rather in their ability to structure thinking on the basis of the information available.

approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as guidance for the 16 If forecasting is used to compare the impact of alternative policy options,

Change 77 (2010) 167 171.31 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:

After some introductory thoughts in the first part, it is tried in the second part to summarize in five points some of the still missing pieces to complete the puzzle to developing a firmly based Evolutionary theory of technological change (ETTC.

Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.

Formalization of evolutionary thinking in biology in algorithmic terms began in 1930 when R. A. Fisher 6 published his opus bthe Genetical Theory of Natural selection,

what evidences how evolutionary thinking permeates modern human thought! Most authors agree that it is impossible to define dinnovationt in a context-free manner,

thinking permeates modern human worldview (accepting or not accepting the idea of an intelligent designer).

and Selection In relation to Sex) has devised a theory that was more applicable to cultural traits than to genetics (foreign to his thinking).

Change (in press), http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.09.012.43 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:

systemic thinking. All three cases illustrate this systemic exploration, while in particular the first and third case demonstrate how this can be combined with nonlinear dynamic models (System Dynamics and Agent Based Modeling respectively),

, Thinking inside the box: a participatory computer assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc.

or perceived modes of thinking about the future and multiple stakeholder values are initiating enablers or barriers for the scenario process.

and realities in our thinking and research practice 27. Reflexivity as a methodology 28 questions representation by suggesting that we are constantly constructing meaning and social realities as we interact with others

futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas or the reapplication of old ideas in new ways to develop better solutions to our needs 31.

Futures thinking Futures thinking is used for medium to long-term strategic analysis and planning. According to Jørgensen 41, citing Dreborg 42,

there are three modes of thinking about the future, each with their own methodologies the predictive, the eventualities and the visionary mode of thinking, see Table 1 for a more elaborate description.

As highlighted in Table 1, the different modes of thinking imply a focus on a different representation of the future.

Representations of the future can be seen as metaphorical descriptions. Usually, these representations are mental images, but they can also be external representations, such as pictures or textual imagery 43.

the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,

Table 1 Modes of thinking about the future. Source: adapted from Jørgensen 41. Modes of thinking Type of futures in focus Characteristics The predictive mode Probable futures Working with indications of what will happen.

In the next section we will discuss our findings against the initial key question of how futures thinking

we can then attribute the most characteristic mode of thinking. 4 Innovation is not only about invention, creation,

Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.

For each of the modes of future thinking, we also include information on the proposed effects on

represented via the modes of futures thinking should be acknowledged when designing and implementing future scenario exercises.

when looking at combination possibilities of the modes of futures thinking in Table 3. To synthesize,

we argue that future scenarios developed with a combination of well-designed modes of futures thinking will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present.

In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.

We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.

i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.

Chang. 77 (2010) 1493 1498.23 I. Wilson, From scenario thinking to strategic action, Technol. Forecast.

a tool for strategic thinking, Sloan Manag. Rev. 25 (1995) 40.53 A. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths:

and thoughts using phrases like: I think that, My personal opinion is that, I do not believe in.

and contributed in a specific way to opening up newperspectives for thinking about the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes:

While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.

All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making. With this challenge in mind

and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.

This strand of thinking considers anticipation to be a fundamental attribute of this universe and attempts to understand the myriad manifestations of anticipation,

Creative abilities refer to the mixture of original and imaginative thinking. Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.

and involved in long-term thinking and strategy processes. The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.

which was seen as a new way of thinking in most organisations. Another notable result from the local level case studies is that the respondents did not perceive the potential added value of foresight studies for policy innovation (see also, the conclusion by 26.

and procedures to ensure that a strategic way of thinking and the insights generated by future analyses are integrated into the various strategic levels and sectoral departments of their organisation.

The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.

References 1 A. Hines, B. Bishop, Thinking About the Future. Guidelines for Strategic foresight, Social Technologies, LLC, Washington, 2006.2 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios:

This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.

and informing decisionmakking strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory''11. Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises,

this process helps to take the real user's life, thoughts and experiences into account,

/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 44 thoughts, comments and ideas (see Fig. 1 on the right.

and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.

‘‘To inspire, to challenge, to do''and‘‘Long-term thinking, short-term action''.''3 After having been carried out within various departments in RWS itself,

and analyzing thoughts about the future and (3) analyzing the possible impact of future developments. Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results

opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals.

to broaden their thinking, and to envisage the future in a more systematic way. Identify new challenging issues for policy

and future thinking to inform the policies of (all) departments. It operatte under the government's chief scientific adviser.

The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35. Gordon, T J and A Pease 2006.

technology and innovation priorities Creating a language and body of practice for thinking about the future A source of inspiration for policy system actors More comprehensive,

and their changes to system actors Development of significant new ways of thinking about challenges and opportunities Promote collective learning through open exchanges of information

The criteria identified as being important for foresight specialists to achieve effective policy engagement were deep knowledge in the relevant field, a‘roadmap'style of thinking

as well as the importance of promoting out-of-the-box thinking during the exercise. Lessons learnt are presented

It aims to support strategic thinking and decision-making by developing a range of possible ways in

The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.

Brummer's thoughts about mind-sets in management are interesting and capture the essence of this concept:..

The strategies and attitudes adopted to promote out-of-the-box thinking during the course of the exercise..

The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,

Strategic thinking: focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..

Private sector executives may have trouble thinking beyond their business. Foresight exercises and innovaatio strategies are interconnected and it is imporrtan to stress the possible influence and impacts from other business segments.

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