or leaders in the organization are reading, thinking about, and sharing informally with each other. But in today's world, arbitrary is insufficient.
The diversity sets up creative synergies that generate new ideas and a system of checks and balances that harnesses professional expertise to evaluate those ideas.
Scanning provides a framework with which a company can regularly and systematically marshal the pattern-recognition capabilities of a group of professionals to identify important changes in the business environment
He believes that organizations should regularly expose employees to chaos 7. The procedure avoids entrainment of thinking, a condition in
which successful approaches and ideas from the past discourage employees from innovation. Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers.
idea-killing behavior and steers the discussion clear of extended exchanges of opinion or philosophical discussions.
This type of clustering allows companies to gain ideas from other industries or other product domains.
An awareness of such new capabilities serves as a jumping-off point for generating ideas for new technology-based products and services.
the filtering process that identifies valuable ideas and knowledge for an organization can begin in earnest.
and ideas to ones the Scan process has identified previously, and they probe and test the ideas and topics for their substance, plausibility,
and potential implications. 4. The players Because the scanning process profits from a wide variety of perspectives in the abstract-collection process and the Scan meeting,
so that topics and ideas do not appear repeatedly unless new developments merit a resurfacing of the topic. 5. The product The most important product of the scanning process is increased an awareness on the part of planners, employees,
The presence of a senior manager can inhibit the discussion and stifle innovative ideas and input.
depending on what concerned individuals in the organization are reading, thinking about, and sharing informally with each other.
Using some combination of foresight methods ideas are generated and filtered until a list exists that may be subject to prioritisation.
a decade earlier an attempt to construct matrices of such interdependence had collapsed under its own weight the idea was pursued not further.
Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.''4 However, 4 See for example UK Innovation White paper 27.
and building linkages between partners or even to generate new product ideas directly 29. The use of foresight approaches to build linkages for innovation represents a focus for foresight activity in innovation.
By collaborating in their thoughts about the future, organizationsmay be placed better to anticipate the actions of their customers, suppliers and others, such as regulators,
This thinking was also the basis of the‘‘open innovation''concept in that it recognises centrally that innovation is a process of interaction between firms
At the level of the firm there are problems of short-term and reactive thinking caused by a preoccupation with immediate business problems
The use of foresight approaches allows procurers to open up their thinking to technical or other solutions
and of communicating these to suppliers brings to the fore the idea of using foresight to create a common vision as a framework in
and understanding diverse ideas, opinions and perspectives in prioritysettting identifying and fostering alternative and competing coalitions
Fixed Structured discussion and the generation of new ideas in the workshops Autonomous Creative brainstorming and ideation in the different scenario and roadmapping workshops.
Exclusive Intensive stakeholder engagement in core group Extensive Cooperative idea and concept creation among stakeholders from different Nordic organisations and firms;
and thinking on strategic trends on specific risks highlighting significant defence and security implications. The findings consist in probability based outcomes.
Extensive Ideas were exposed in conferences and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.
Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
Instrumental Identification of innovation ideas and promoting stakeholder networking. Diverse Analysis of diverging views on innovation ideas among stakeholders.
Fixed Robust portfolio modelling, online surveys. Autonomous Stakeholder workshops. Extensive Wide stakeholder participation in online surveys. Exclusive Limited but open stakeholder participation in the workshops.
however, difficult to trace in published official documents of the European commission that often do not explicitly refer to sources of ideas.
and thinking emerge. This initiative is designed to result in improved quality of defence policy. It is one of the source documents for the development of the UK Defence policy.
and informative outcomes) Agora foresight can be characterised as informative processes with diverse future perspectives that explore diverse ideas
which provides opportunities for creative thinking and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.
future perspectives that generate many ideas, opinions and perspectives, which support the specific foreseen decision-making situation or for the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions.
The driving for diversity of perspectives together with instrumental results are likely to lead to concrete innovation ideas
The second project identifiedwas a foresightprocess attachedtofinnish Foresight Forum, whichengageddifferent stakeholder groups, encouragedthemtosubmit ideas on prospective innovations,
and explicated multiple perspectives in the evaluation and analysis of these ideas. Drawing upon these lines of thinking,
consensual foresight objectives and diversity considerations are complementary perspectives which are needed both in attempts to enhance the performance of innovation systems:
in Europe, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.9 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo, Diversity in foresight insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
The idea of posits provides us with a label for specific sets of knowledge. These are the sets of knowledge that are to do with the consequences that our models of situations
and on ways of thinking about problem situations. Since FTA involves engaging with stakeholders or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,
whose far-future and cosmological‘‘novels''such as Star Maker (1937) dramatise these notions (even introducing ideas of a multiverse).
than it is a free market of ideas of a level playing field. Matters have improved over recent years with more journals,
and exchange of ideas across communities of research and practice in FTA. But huge knowledge gaps are apparent,
by facilitating the processes of creative and lateral thinking, and asking difficult questions. The value-added here can be substantial.
Unfortunately, some valuable ideas may be selected out as being too challenging sometimes they are postponed for later analysis,
as opposed to techniques that are designed to foster creative thinking and explore possibilities that are hard to capture in the more formal techniques.
encourage unconventional thinking, and engage key stakeholders. The two dimensions might be seen as reflecting the balance between knowledge from experts and knowledge within communities,
''Once we go beyond extrapolating specific trends or devising imaginative scenarios based on historical analogy or generalisation from supposed vanguards, towards thinking about innovation systems more generally,
Occasionally we may see some broader overview coming from such sources often on the basis of the authors having absorbed a great deal of FTA thinking from other sources such as Naisbitt's Megatrends
coming close to Boisot's idea of social learning cycle (17,18). Taking account of cultural factors, values and opinions,
and knowledge One of the most influential contributions to thinking about organisational learning and KM has been the model of the dynamics of shared knowledge creation developed by Nonaka and Takeuchi 19.
along with ideas about knowledge being contained''in things and knowledge flows happening (e g. in technology transfer), that it is hard to shift.
The idea that knowledge development takes place through a (typically clockwise) multi-cycle spiral movement through these different SECI cycle categories is a powerful heuristic for explicating FTA EXERCISES and activities.
and debate about, ideas. There are periods where ideas are being written down and listed and where different lists are combined.
There are periods where narratives are constructed about possible trajectories of development; where policy or strategy implications and priorities are elaborated;
''but the grouping of ideas into STEEPV or other categories is more like‘‘combination'';''often the two knowledge activities are hard to demarcate.
‘‘socialisation''as these ideas are chewed over, conceptual frameworks given a first airing, possible actions and implications for policy explored.
This is one of those valuable tasks that encourage participants to step away from their standard ways of thinking about
They have to work together to cluster ideas which means debating the relationships between drivers and topics.
They will share ideas about how the contents of the cluster are interlinked and relate to the other themes being pursued.
The thinking about factors developed by different subgroups is written typically down in lists, with the most important drivers being earmarked
''There may well be more clustering of ideas, with discussion about the connections between ideas proving a good basis for exchanging information about implicit models and theories.
Presentation and group discussion of the material provide further opportunities for‘‘internalisation''and‘‘socialisation''.''Major‘‘combination''moments come in the scenario construction sessions that constitute the heart of the workshop.
so that they can seriously incorporate the thinking of the workshop in their own decision-A. Eerola,
for example to capture ideas and allow for rapid collation of views. Experience is accumulating about the use of tools for mindmapping
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
. Cole, C. Freeman, M. Jahoda, K. L. R. Pavitt, Thinking about the Future, Chatto & Windus, London, 1973,
Many ideas were debated, but these remain to be operationalised. The ability of the FTA COMMUNITY to garner sufficient credibility, legitimacy and authority to contribute to such global agendas is still a concern.
Associated Business Programs, 1976.6 H. Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1962.7 H. Kahn, A. Weiner, The Year 2000:
opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues
Challenging Petersen's hypothesis, his additional thoughts on‘Cascading Discontinuity Sets'broke away from the idea of wild cards to introduce other types of interrelated events.
The idea is similar to the Black swan theory described by Taleb 10 in his book‘‘The Black swan''.
thanks to the collective thinking of Wikipedia 5 is that wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals,
Results can serve as baseline for a more quantitative-reactive survey next year likely generating a higher return rate requiring less time to formulate original ideas. 3. 2. Analysis of the results 3. 2. 1. Descriptive statistics
and that they would be motivated by the opportunity to add content ideas additional to their evident Foresight process expertise.
creation of out-of-control species, viruses, robots Disruption of technological systems Artificial intelligence passes human capacity Shocking scientific discovery challenges all hitherto received ideas, e g.,
Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions
K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,
ideas and experience, and a stronger platform on which to promote the vital need of addressing the future to individuals at all levels
Design/methodology/approach The main method applied is combined critical thinking with a review of selected aspects of complexity theory
but either way, a critical thinking approach can be helpful. Bringing together complexity theory, reframing and some critical thinking provides a way to understand how techniques can work better,
be applied better, and most importantly lead to better decision-making and policy making (and perhaps contribute to use of theories of social change in foresight).
and to focus on the idea of interactions rather than constituent parts. Foresight techniques need to enable practitioners to develop a vision of a system's emergent properties the self-organised behaviour that could result from interactions between the parts. 2. All systems have component agents (taxies,
impossible or ludicrous now. 3. Improving foresight application reframing One way to think of all of these ideas together is as different ways of seeing,
Whatever we say about the future has an implicit idea of change underlying any inference
By simply thinking about a possible future (the purchase of the flat), you have changed your frame.
but one is usually not even aware that thoughts are being channelled. The key insight of complexity-based foresight for policy making is that command
specifically policy makers must focus on the idea of interactions rather than a system's constituent parts
There are different ways of understanding the idea and what it may mean for policy making. For example, emergence is a process of change
Axelrod and Cohen (2001) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 299 describe the idea of harnessing complexity to deliberately change the structure of the system,
There are at least three key ideas, Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), which can help policy makers to promote variation:
Be self-sufficient D Technology is the key Leading idea Eco-efficiency, diminishing energy consumption Restraining urban sprawl
the basic idea of scenarios as describing alternative possibilities, not predicted certainties, is lost. The best way to avoid this trap would be to repeat the scenario process regularly to refine the results.
While, in line with the idea of backcasting method, all the scenarios are against current trends, they are still quite predictable (energy efficiency,
Nevertheless, the leading idea is to anticipate on societal aspects in an early stage of technological development to get better societal embedded technology 34.
Foresight forges new social networks for the exchange of ideas experiences and specific knowledge. Territorial foresight offers noteworthy tangible benefits.
this approach has allowed us to mature ideas and contrast instruments with parsimony in a little-explored field of knowledge. 6. Main findings
2011) 7. As stated by its organizers and promoters, the project‘‘is based on the premise that prospective thinking about law is not only desirable
2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.
limited to a short time span and resistant to prospective thinking and alternative planning. Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies,
The idea was not to describe what the world will look like, and then derive a series of legal recommendations to the policy makers,
The idea is to have‘‘something like a‘flight simulator '(or‘policy wind tunnel')to explore techno-socioeconomic-environmental systems,
and to provide a range of different ideas based on which scenarios can afterwards be designed and presented.
I propose the idea of attaching modelling systems and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
Following the ideas presented in the legislative-making section, laws should ideally establish their vision of desired future,
The attachment of a specifc law to a given idea of Future renders the former (at least to some extent) dependent on the vicissitudes
and manipulations that may affect the production of such idea or vision of future. In other words, we may run the risk of having a specific vision of the future directly produced
‘‘The idea of future is more fecund than future itself''22. Notes 1. The term‘‘Law'',written in capital letters,
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
they all have their own ideas and assumptions, interpretations and examples, scientific approaches and experiences in the back of their head.
Its central goal is to obtain a well-structured connection between R&d activities in this field and potential fields of application and ideas for products.
it is expected that this process allows more reliable judgements about product ideas and visionary applications thought up by proponents (and sometimes propagandists) of nanotechnology, about the realism and the realisation periods of these concepts as well as about the potential of competing conventional technologies.
The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions
However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.
either form existing products or to new ideas for application. This will be complemented by a more conventional,
He concluded that there is a lack of critical thinking at epistemological and ontological levels in particular, and too much of a business-as usual mentality (Hames 2011b).
in principle, be found in what Slaughter (2008) calls‘problem-oriented'futures (i e. conventional thinking), and thus requires a new approach making use of integral ideas.
Boden, Johnston, and Scapolo (2012) give some responses to these new demands on FTA. They pose a tentative claim that‘FTA
With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.
Tuomi looks at epistemic and ontological causes for this failure, by introducing the idea of‘ontological unpredictability
using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development. The objective of the framework is to help organisations create a tailored,
The paper introduces the idea of‘ontological unpredictability 'and shows how innovation leads to unpredictability that cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
The following section then further elaborates the idea of ontological unpredictability in the context of innovation theory,
and use some ideas from cultural historical theory to argue that modelling the directionality of the innovative élan requires analysis of progress at several time scales.
Two sources of unpredictability In much of contemporary thinking, failures in prediction indicate a need to engage in further study and research.
For example, the idea that radical innovations emerge as‘hopeful monstrosities'that only gradually realise their true promise (Tushman and Anderson 1986;
Innovative ideas abound, parallel innovation is unintended frequent uses become drivers of development, and socially and economically important innovations are invented often several times before they eventually start to have real impact.
The idea of an eye presupposes vision. Yet, the evolution has produced a large variety of similar structures for eyes again and again, directing development towards practically useful directions (Mead 1907.
Invention and the evolution of ideas. London: Social science Paperbacks. Schön, D. A. 1983. The reflective practitioner.
These ideas, and more broadly artefacts, can blend together across the entire STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology,
However, the analogy cannot be taken too far as the future eventually yields some of its secrets as ideas emerge across its fuzzy boundary.
the discussion during the elicitation unearths how the expert's thinking proceeds. How that responds to seeding his
or her thinking with unusual ideas stemming from over the horizon scanning relating to the various forms of ignorance is important.
In this way, a relationship between an expert's thinking processes and their representation as a subjective probability distribution can be built by creating a wider appreciation of the situation involved in the FTA.
Managerially, this does not prevent a scenario from performing its two primary roles of integrating ideas in a way aimed to shift entrenched managerial behaviour.
Delphi Intensive interviewing Expert panels Futures scenarios Conceptual modelling Hermeneutics Critical Theory Introspective reflection Critical systems thinking Rational Existential Natural Artificial Figure 1
Verbal equivalents to different probability levels (Alpert and Raiffa 1982) were used during this part of the elicitation to seed the interviewee's thinking processes.
‘Computers and you'is no longer the mildly bizarre idea that it was in 1977 or earlier,
Data mining is far from a new idea, the possibilities of which far exceed those of the 1960s or 1970s.
Throughout publications about or adjacent to the nano-artefact, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science quartet (NBIC), there is a continual introduction of ideas,
which are predicated on ideas of progress. Innovation studies have shown and discussed how expectations are part and parcel of all professional practices
The basic idea is that decision-making in firms and policy-settings will benefit from explorations of the future (Gordon,
along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers Facilitating policy implementation Enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of current and future challenges,
since decisions and activities are framed by intentions and ideas about a future situation. People act not only in reaction to the past (socialisattion or present (roles in a social structure),
The idea is that a choice of the right Leitbilder will lead to a successful coordination of efforts (Grin and Grunwald 2000;
The starting idea that hydrogen is a sustainable and green solution to the mobility problem in London remained uncontested until stations for hydrogen were to be implemented.
Visions may become self-fulfiling generating ideas on alternatives. Könnölä, Brummer, and Salo (2007,610), for instance, argue that‘..
because the results resonate with current ideas and assumptions. However the embedment in a sea of expectations also adds a dual vulnerability.
Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 786 R. Vecchiato Prominent scholars supported the idea that the best way to handle an uncertain future is to ignore it
and one of the most relevant ideas that fitted the scenarios was for a small, trendy two-seater car.
and if an innovative idea does not‘fit'with an existing business group, it is allocated to the‘Siemens Technology Accelerator'(part of the Corporate Technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 791 division),
which cooperate in the experimentation and development of innovative ideas, newproduct concepts, and prototypes. A model for uncertainty and strategic foresight In the prior sections, we sketched the strategic foresight approaches that emerged from our data through
Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.
using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development. The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
and builds revolutionary ideas of what is possible (Shelton 1997). The expression‘meta-learning'was created by Losada (1999)
new ideas emerge and existing and new knowledge are combined Monitor the business FTA PROCESSES lead to an enhanced responsiveness of the network,
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
and intution-Formal and powerful processes-Sustainability-driven firm-Positive emotions (ratio at or above 2. 90) lead to creativity across the sustainability net, focus on innovative ideas-Participative process;
individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
and ownership for achievements is critical to enable everybody to change their individual ideas and build a common set of values Technology An effective integration of social and environmental strategies can be supported strongly by theuse of IT.
and then to adjust the organisational thinking and actions for the future. This phase is where sustainability performance evolutionary leaps can occur bringing,
First, staff members submit short ideas answering written calls (i e.,, requests for proposals. Then, internal teams of experts in the technologies comprising each IA review the short ideas
and select some fraction of them for full proposals. The expert teams then review the proposals
and content that provide fodder for new ideas. It is worth noting that the visualizations themselves do not generate new ideas.
Rather it is the analyst or IA lead interacting with the visualizations that formulates questions
and new ideas based on the information and patterns seen there. Fig. 6 shows the overall scatterplot comprising investment in LDRD by all of the U s. DOE's laboratories.
or ideas outside the technology clusters within the map. We note that a more global map
and discusses the idea of anticipatory culture and its relations to systemic transformation capacities. Section 3 presents the notion of process-based roadmapping that is based on the identification of knowledge space and roadmap scope.
The idea of an anticipatory culture builds on this temporal tension (Figure 1). Therefore, the adoption of an anticipatory culture does not mean that historical development paths are erased,
The idea springs from the perspective that organisations are complex systems where transformations arise through emergence,
It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
This idea links strategy roadmapping to organisation and strategy studies, especially to strategy crafting (see e g.
These ideas and concepts are elaborated below. Knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes How is it possible to combine the roadmapping methodology with the creation of structural openness, an anticipatory agency,
the key ideas accentuated the need to build a new kind of serviceorieente operation culture in a field that is considered quite conservative by the actors.
Visionary ideas about technology-enabled services could also be one way to stimulate Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and (4) internationality Forming visionary ideas about the systemic and technology-enabled services in the field Constructing a horizontal anticipatory agency,
the actual roadmapping process was able to endorse new ideas about markets, services, and solutions in the topic areas.
One hindrance to converting the ideas into practices could be the somewhat abstract nature of the case examples:
Therefore, a kind of interpretative phase after the visionary phase could be useful in putting the ideas into practice.
and other organisations would benefit from thinking explicitly in all of the four knowledge spaces discussed in the article.
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