it is desirable to elicit ideas from the experts on‘issues'.'That is, what important hurdles must be surmounted along the various innovation pathways?
The idea is that this helps focus monitoring efforts to seek out advances that could facilitate our desired application.
Figure 7) stimulates thinking about factors affecting these, which in turn can trigger consideration about research, technology management,
In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out, while the following themes will be central in discussions in the days to come:
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 17 Loveridge, D. 1999),‘Foresight and Delphi processes as information sources for scenario planning'',Ideas In progress Paper No. 11, Policy
At the same time, diverging interests, opinions and agendas pose challenges to the new and still crystallizing ideas contained in foresight results.
Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
It also has a long-term effect in that stakeholders who have been involved in the dialogue change their thinking
There is a persuasive view that that longer-term thinking and commitments PAGE 38 jforesight jvol. 15 NO 1 2013 are necessary to develop
After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue.
The second part highlights the main ideas of the eight papers published in this special issue. These present some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners
observations and new ideas to be prepared better for the future (assuming that it can be predicted) or shape the future (assuming that it is predetermined not fully by the identified/identifiable trends).
approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as provide guidance for the identification of the features that may help the selection of the appropriate set of tools
which future thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions. It does so by analysing seventeen scenario-based projects to identify elements of good practices
Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking, create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process,
Hence, principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios require representation and collaboration as well as the integration of different modes of future thinking
i) capture of indications for extrasysttemi change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends, ii) mobilisation of tacit knowledge as well as support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among diverse stakeholders through
the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy. His research activity has been focused mostly upon long-term policy
This is expected to generate dynamic cross-methodological learning processes as at each phase or iteration of the exercise ideas flow between different domains of knowledge.
The idea that one can forecast or predict the future seems to be contradicting the idea of developing multiple futures
and shaping the future by identifying common directions to follow, using foresight. In reality, predicting certain elements of a broader system such as demographic developments is not in contradiction in any way with developing multiple futures.
but rather in their ability to structure thinking on the basis of the information available.
In so doing, due importance should be given to developing the right communication skills for sharing ideas
approaches and tools that intrinsically (ex-ante) integrate qualitative and quantitative thinking, as well as guidance for the 16 If forecasting is used to compare the impact of alternative policy options,
Change 77 (2010) 167 171.31 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:
After some introductory thoughts in the first part, it is tried in the second part to summarize in five points some of the still missing pieces to complete the puzzle to developing a firmly based Evolutionary theory of technological change (ETTC.
Universal Darwinism 1. Introductory thoughts The main objective of this seminar concerns the exploitation of the powerful new capabilities provided by the Information technology Era to advance Future-oriented technology analysis (TFA), both product and process.
tales from the frontier (new methods for TFA) and importing ideas (methods and tools adopted from other fields), respectively.
and talking about abstract ideas and entities that are not directly observable, in terms of concepts grounded in very basic physical and social perceptions.
and then difficult to be commented on without some overlapping of ideas: Biology, or perhaps more generally, biosciences, is not merely a good source of metaphors,
Formalization of evolutionary thinking in biology in algorithmic terms began in 1930 when R. A. Fisher 6 published his opus bthe Genetical Theory of Natural selection,
following then trustworthy Darwin's original idea. By the same epoch, and not necessarily motivated by evolutionary concepts,
what evidences how evolutionary thinking permeates modern human thought! Most authors agree that it is impossible to define dinnovationt in a context-free manner,
thinking permeates modern human worldview (accepting or not accepting the idea of an intelligent designer).
4. My proposal of definition is then simply 4. 1. Innovation is the emergence of a new adaptive design This definition has sufficiently broad meaning
we have some crucial troubles when talking about fundamental ideas behind them. Some of these fundamentals are:
Or the interface of artifacts and ideas in technological practices? 2 How does heritability occur in technological systems?
With this short collection of ideas I wish to suggest that a firmly conceptually based danthropology of techniquet is still lacking in the current attempts of model building and formal theorizing of an ETTC.
demotion and rise of evolutionary concepts in economics It is well known the fact that the social sciences after experiencing an initial thrust from evolutionary concepts at the turn of 19th to 20th centuries have insisted historically in ignoring Darwinian ideas.
and Selection In relation to Sex) has devised a theory that was more applicable to cultural traits than to genetics (foreign to his thinking).
But during the last two decades we have seen a growing interest in evolutionary ideas among economists.
New professional associations focusing on these ideas have been founded and for more than fifteen years there has been the djournal for Evolutionary Economicst (Springer),
which otherwise open the way to the revival of Joseph Schumpeter's ideas of a evolutionary global economy driven by the clustering of basic innovations
However, the basic ideas underlying evolutionary economics are still a matter of considerable controversy. Among the main objections we can find for instance:
's epistemology) and conducting to some conceptual breakthroughs like Richard Dawkins'24 memes in the 1970s and more recently Daniel Dennet's 25 Darwin's Dangerous Idea (the idea that all the fruits of evolution,
Campbell forcefully reintroduced Darwinian ideas to social sciences (economics as well), after a lapse of almost a half century after the initial thrust commented on in point 1. Basically he suggested that Darwinism contained a general theory of the evolution of all complex systems,
The initial ideas for this paradigm were developed almost a century ago. Dewey 25 put forth an argument proposing that policies be treated as experiments,
A central idea in this approach is to use the availablemodels differently, instead of using them in a predictive manner
Change (in press), http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.09.012.43 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:
diverging beliefs and ideas about system functioning, and complex interactions between supply, demand, substitution, and recycling, necessitating a more exploratory approach.
systemic thinking. All three cases illustrate this systemic exploration, while in particular the first and third case demonstrate how this can be combined with nonlinear dynamic models (System Dynamics and Agent Based Modeling respectively),
, Thinking inside the box: a participatory computer assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges.
or perceived modes of thinking about the future and multiple stakeholder values are initiating enablers or barriers for the scenario process.
and realities in our thinking and research practice 27. Reflexivity as a methodology 28 questions representation by suggesting that we are constantly constructing meaning and social realities as we interact with others
futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas or the reapplication of old ideas in new ways to develop better solutions to our needs 31.
Innovation is invariably a cumulative, collaborative activity in which ideas are shared, tested, refined, developed and applied 32.
The concept of national innovation systems is rooted in evolutionary economic theorizing on socio-technical change 33 35.
Futures thinking Futures thinking is used for medium to long-term strategic analysis and planning. According to Jørgensen 41, citing Dreborg 42,
there are three modes of thinking about the future, each with their own methodologies the predictive, the eventualities and the visionary mode of thinking, see Table 1 for a more elaborate description.
As highlighted in Table 1, the different modes of thinking imply a focus on a different representation of the future.
Representations of the future can be seen as metaphorical descriptions. Usually, these representations are mental images, but they can also be external representations, such as pictures or textual imagery 43.
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
Table 1 Modes of thinking about the future. Source: adapted from Jørgensen 41. Modes of thinking Type of futures in focus Characteristics The predictive mode Probable futures Working with indications of what will happen.
they also involve the interaction of the stakeholders, their ideas, values and capacities for social change.
In the next section we will discuss our findings against the initial key question of how futures thinking
and to stimulate novel ideas. Based on this observation (sub-section 4. 1), two groups of practice can be distinguished:
we can then attribute the most characteristic mode of thinking. 4 Innovation is not only about invention, creation,
Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.
For each of the modes of future thinking, we also include information on the proposed effects on
represented via the modes of futures thinking should be acknowledged when designing and implementing future scenario exercises.
when looking at combination possibilities of the modes of futures thinking in Table 3. To synthesize,
we argue that future scenarios developed with a combination of well-designed modes of futures thinking will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present.
In this paper, we argue that these modes of futures thinking are shown to contribute in different ways to orientating innovation systems.
We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.
especially by decision-makers Conventional Convention Agree on common accepted probabilities of change (rejecting extreme ideas) Strong on acceptance and alignment,
i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
Chang. 77 (2010) 1493 1498.23 I. Wilson, From scenario thinking to strategic action, Technol. Forecast.
a tool for strategic thinking, Sloan Manag. Rev. 25 (1995) 40.53 A. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths:
The Coming Era of Nanotechnology 17, Drexler developed far reaching new ideas of the possibilities and risks of technologies on the nanoscale.
and his ideas became a disputed reference point in the debate around nanotechnology in the late 1980s and the 1990s.
Historical analysis indicates that the process of drawing the boundary so as to exclude Drexler's ideas was connected closely with controversies around the question,
and in spreading the idea that nanotechnology would become one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century.
Visual inspiration, tomobilise tacit knowledge, support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among people with different disciplinary backgrounds.
and ideas across stakeholder groups is suitable for meeting the objectives of the foresight exercise. For a growing number of cases, however
if it became possible to scan the internet for ideas and to filter those ideas according to current customer needs automatically?
Sophisticated filters would automatically extract ideas with outstanding market potential. Changes in the behaviour or the use of a product would be detected without delay
and the most appropriate ideas for product optimatisation would be available immediately. The innovation would then be triggered by changes in the behaviour of people
and there would be no time lag, thanks to real time investigation. Fig. 2. Amplification example: web-extracted innovation. 456 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 Fig. 3. Screenshot from the INFU web-based
The sketchy style of the drawings underlines that the story-scripts express only a very rough idea of what a situation in the future could look like.
and thoughts using phrases like: I think that, My personal opinion is that, I do not believe in.
This image seemed to foster the idea of time consuming and slow participative processes. This interpretation did not correspondwith the intention of the project team and the comprehensive description of the vision.
These so-called nodes of change in innovation 24 were subjected then to in depth discussionwithin the INFU mini panels (Table 1). The co-ordinators were identified in the course of the interviews as people with particularly relevant ideas and high
Driven innovation economic model Novel Classic Innovator'sworking conditions Temporary Stable Idea generation mode Controlled Random The size of the bubble represents how many of the selected signals conform to a specification.
In addition, individual persons are motivated to contribute to innovation activities (such as crowdsourcing initiatives or idea competitions) for their pleasure.
or fully automatised (e g. by using web crawlers to identify ideas). New forms of interplay between human creativity and automatised combinations of elements are emerging.
and contributed in a specific way to opening up newperspectives for thinking about the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes:
but also supported a very straightforward exchange of ideas among many participants and facilitated a creative interaction of people with different perspectives.
Throughout the project it was recognised that people are attracted by provocative ideas and visions. They serve very well to mobilise debates
Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the stimulating ideas of the FTA participants, including the authors of the papers in this special edition but going well beyond and into the discussions, formal and informal,
While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
All of which threatens to undermine the credibility and relevance of anticipatory thinking for decision-making. With this challenge in mind
and relate the wide range of different approaches to thinking about the future within an overarching framework.
This strand of thinking considers anticipation to be a fundamental attribute of this universe and attempts to understand the myriad manifestations of anticipation,
and tolerance for deviant ideas. The first implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to a society's view on planning in general.
The third implication of the uncertainty avoidance dimension on foresight relates to tolerance for deviant ideas.
and behaviour and are intolerant of deviant persons and ideas. Hofstede notes that in countries with strong uncertainty avoidance
Hofstede also that in countries with weak uncertainty avoidance new ideas might just be ignored and not necessarily accept.
The tolerance for deviant ideas also has implications for the selection of methods that include stakeholders in a foresight process.
Creative abilities refer to the mixture of original and imaginative thinking. Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.
Furthermore, new and deviating ideas from actors who had conflicting interests were introduced during the process,
and some of these new ideas were included in the final catalogue. Considering Danish society's low uncertainty avoidance, the initiation and implementation of a long-term planning project such as the Globalisation Strategy might be contradictory.
and workshops, provides an obvious opportunity to create a synergy effect due to the creative processes that are shaped by bringing together experiences and ideas from many different interest domains.
Identification of themes Expert group analysed the material from phase 1 Workshop with user panel about the 42 themes Expert group revised the 42 themes 42 themes for strategic research Ideas and input for the remainder
and involved in long-term thinking and strategy processes. The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.
The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,
stimulating interdepartmental dialogue gathering support for ideas and policies developing a common cognitive frame of reference (a common ground of understanding)( see also 5, 11) Finally,
(2) inspiring civil servants to come up with new ideas for policy and strategy,(3) setting the agenda.
Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
which was seen as a new way of thinking in most organisations. Another notable result from the local level case studies is that the respondents did not perceive the potential added value of foresight studies for policy innovation (see also, the conclusion by 26.
These skills are related to communicating the idea results and added value of the foresight method for strategic policy-making,
and procedures to ensure that a strategic way of thinking and the insights generated by future analyses are integrated into the various strategic levels and sectoral departments of their organisation.
The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.
References 1 A. Hines, B. Bishop, Thinking About the Future. Guidelines for Strategic foresight, Social Technologies, LLC, Washington, 2006.2 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios:
and a‘glocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed
because it focuses diverse inputs by soliciting signals that convey ideas about future innovations aligned with the systemic and action-oriented nature of innovation processes,
The basic idea is to add a process cycle to complement foresight with a phase of‘strategic counselling'.
Also, the idea was to involve the European commission (client) to debate all milestone results to ensure ownership and commitment,
and a variety of ideas about future innovations linked to one or more KATS and to social,
and other changes that could influence the realisation of the proposed idea. The results from the above initiatives were complemented with the outcomes from two brainstorming workshops and 106 interviews with industry representatives.
The latter also asked for innovation ideas for IMS and required changes to have realised these. All these activities produced a total of 754 research issues to be explored further
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
The idea of embedding such modularity was adapted from another international exercise 29 where stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process.
and convince partners of the benefits of elaborating the survey questions in a way that would enable it to capture future innovation ideas and the ways in
Only after a debate on the nature of innovation and on how to solicit creative future ideas did partners achieve a common understanding and,
This approach was key to designing a questionnaire able to elicit the innovative ideas that participants thought critical for IMS both globally and locally.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.16 L a. Costanzo, Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment, Futures 36 (2004
This could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
Study 1 aimed to identify users'specific (future) needs and possible Lead User ideas concerning digital TV (DTV) in Flanders through an online survey (N=11.802 digital TV users.
13 unique ideas representing important unfulfilled needs were identified and evaluated. Study 2, which focused on‘Future TV experiences,
and stakeholders to voice and further develop their ideas, expectations, concerns. Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences are presented in Section 3. Study 1 focused on the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to interactive digital TV;
For instance, active and continuous user involvement have been said to lead to‘unique and valuable ideas for future development'15, to more‘socially and environmentally friendly technologies',to an increased‘quality of innovations'16
In the opportunity identification and idea generation phases, issues such as the‘functional fixation'of users to their current reality and the difficulty for users to break loose from their own use context are mentioned 19
and informing decisionmakking strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory''11. Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises,
Both studies have sought to engage current users at an early stage in the exploration and identification of possible future development ideas
namely the identification of unfulfilled needs and possible Lead User ideas related to the (future) use of DTV. 3. 1. 1. Methodological approach An online survey was set up
%For the identification of these future user needs, we adopted an approach based on the first steps of Lead User-market research 23,25 and inspired by the idea of‘crowdsourcing'26.
In the strict sense, crowdsourcing implies an open call for ideas and contributions. In this study however, a large crowd of users within a delineated subpopulation of Flemish DTV-users was addressed.
The ideas and needs that came out of the open questions were coded into different categories. The main category grouped rather common needs/complaints (i e.,
and differed from these more general needs were coded in a separate category as possible Lead User-ideas.
In a next research phase, these potential Lead User-ideas were evaluated by a group of 15 Flemish experts in the field of digital TV (consisting of content managers and innovation managers from Flemish broadcasters
Their role was to evaluate the ideas in terms of market potential(‘now'and‘in five years),
'degree of newness/innovativeness and degree to which some players in the digital TV business were already working on the idea at hand.
The ideas were ranked then on the basis of these evaluations and estimations. 3. 1. 2. Results In total,
After clustering, this resulted in 13 unique ideas:(1) 3d images,(2) community-functions through DTV,(3) DTV as an embedded open source platform where everyone can develop applications,
12 out of the 13 Lead User-ideas came from users that showed both Lead User-characteristics:
'As already mentioned, the‘Lead Userness'of the identified ideas was validated by an expert panel.
The results are given in Table 1. The column‘market potential now'shows the mean estimated potential for the Lead User-idea at the moment the K. De Moor et al./
The ideas are ranked based on the percentages from this question.‘‘In development'shows the number of experts (N=15) that believe this idea is already in development somewhere,
and the last column‘implemented 5y'indicates the number of respondents that thinks this idea will be implemented effectively in five years'time.
The‘virtual digicorder'-idea is regarded clearly as the idea with the most potential, but also considered as being in an already advanced stage of development.
This idea was mentioned also by the largest number of respondents. A visual EPG that synchronises with other devices, ratings and recommendations of content and community-features is considered also a Lead User-idea with an estimated future potential of 1/3
or more of the digital TV-viewers and is also at a more advanced stage of development.
Automated subtitling and the exchange of (recorded) content amongst users is considered also as having large potential,
The open source, gaming, video surveillance and smart home-ideas are considered also as having less market potential,
The open source, surveillance and smart home ideas can be considered as the most innovative ideas as for these ideas only a few experts believe that they are currently being developed.
Although the presented combination of a large-scale survey with an expert evaluation as such is not new,
the gathered ideas serve as bottom-up input for further exploration of future innovation opportunities for DTV in a natural research setting (through the Living Lab approach).
Idea Market potential now(%)Market potential+5y(%)In development Implemented 5y Virtual digicorder 23.7 48.2 13 13 Visual EPG 13.1 37.7 10
this process helps to take the real user's life, thoughts and experiences into account,
/Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 44 thoughts, comments and ideas (see Fig. 1 on the right.
This idea of shared TV was evaluated not as very innovative, yet it was very important for the users.
In Study 1, a combined approach of Lead Users with the idea of crowdsourcing was used.
Tapping users'imaginative potential may not necessarily lead to breakthrough innovative ideas, yet it offers a way to open up the innovation process,
and could allow for a better integration of inclusive, long-term visions in decision-making and strategic thinking in the context of innovation.
it is likely that some methods will be more successful than others in supporting a user to voice his or her future ideas, visions, expectations.
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