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They stimulate the development of new insights on simulation methods and evolutionary programming. The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
Thirdly, they must be able to deliver insights on possible strategies and options for individual actors on how to change course and direction,
The foresight tradition has embraced some of these insights. In particular, it has stressed the role of interaction
achievements and deficits In the light of insights from research on innovation and technological change, much foresight thinking and practice have struck us as somewhat over-simplistic and in particular over-optimistic in its hopes, e g. with respect to the ability to mobilise innovation system stakeholders to act
it is our contention that in all three respects it is particularly useful to draw on insights from adaptive planning (AP). This approach,
Combining insights on limitations to foresight (used here as an everyday term) and control, and the choice to at least theoretically rely on one-stage decision-making,
This realist perspective on policy support is more an insight emerging from practical experience as will be outlined in
On the other hand, these debates are essential for consolidating forward-looking insights and making them effective in policy-making.
which may deepen insight on the drivers and modify the priorities, the highest priority factors and particularly those of the uncertain type,
These kinds of insights should then serve as an input for today's policy-makers to prioritise, for instance, emerging technologies and design corresponding policies.
However, this ability to take continuously on board new insights still needs to be built explicitly into the process, both within individual AF cycles and along the implementation of several such cycles.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.10 J. Liesiö, P. Mild, A. Salo, Preference programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and project selection, Eur.
These insights can then be used as input for other methodological approaches in regulatory foresight, e g. surveys or Delphi studies. 503 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 3. 2. Surveys 3. 2. 1. Introduction and definition
but revealed also some very important new methodological insights. Conditions for methodology application: Foresight methodologies including scenario,
and the organisation Detect insights of specific needs for future regulation High cost and time-consuming Qualitative Assessment of future relevance of regulation,
We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms.
Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.
2. Insights from studies of path dynamics and alignment In more or less stable situations, affordance structures 33 are stabilised
and highlight relevant notions. 2. 1 Insights from the literature into the notion of path From literature on evolutionary economics,
MPM for various possible innovation chains requires insights from practitioners who have experience and something at stake in creating
For the conceptual developmeen of MPM, our self-set task was to integrate insights from roadmapping, dynamics of Emerging s&t and expectations,
where insights into technology dynamics are explored with actors in order to broaden at an early stage the decision making process.
if they can gain extra insights on organizational innovation chains (as well as the technology paths), and thus a tailoring of the tool for the start-up company is currently ongoing.
Making Use of Recent insights from Sociology and Economics of Technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.3 Richard E. Albright, Thomas A. Kappel, Roadmapping in the corporation, Res.
Dealing with uncertainty Facilitate better understanding of potential disruptive change Gain insights into complex interactions and emerging drivers of change Detect
as well as by offering these new types of insights for other actors 576 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 universities,
Therefore, we may assume that strategic planning in infrastructure sectors could substantially profit from insights gathered in this tradition.
A comparison of the stakeholders'assessment with the sustainability evaluation of the core team offers insight into the sustainability deficits that a politically negotiated solution would entail (see Fig. 5)
the insights gained by this approach were appreciated highly by the involved decision makers, despite the high level of complexity that became apparent in certain process phases.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.21 J. F. Coates, Scenario planning from my perspective, Technol.
and new technologies provide some further insights that contribute to the paper. The paper examines the prerequisites of and the ways in
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1177 1186 most notably in terms of social needs and innovation policy interest, for the kinds of insights that the technology barometer exercise can deliver.
but furthermore the related national comparative examination gives additional and more detailed insights into the discussion of the future development of the national economy and innovation system.
In the future, the mechanisms of ageing on the molecular level of the whole body and specially the brain will deliver new insights for cognition, emotions and psychomotoric or other concepts.
generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management, Special issue FTA Seminar 2006,2008, pp. 369 387.19 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
and insights on the candidate policies or strategies in questions, eliminating less favorable alternative options and focusing on the preferable ones.
however, rather slightly, confirming insights from the policy analysis literature that it is very difficult to change core belief systems in the short term.
However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.
adapt structures and decisions to new insights and trigger more long-term changes in the organisations'overall awareness for constant anticipation, learning and adaptation 12,43.
But there is little evidence to connect these insights to resulting performance of the participating organisations.
Insights from the FORLEARN Mutual learning Process, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 2006, Joint research Centre/European commission. 32 G. P. Hodgkinson, G. Wright, Confronting strategic
to have special insights, not necessarily based on conventional expert credentials. Any such participant ought then to be considered for continuing participation.
, Polity Press, 1990.10 A. Maslow, Motivation and Personality, Harper & Row, NY, 1954.11 D. dubeth, Values and lifestyles, Insight 1 (5)( 1984) 2 11 september
Such scenarios require insight into co-evolutionary dynamics, of actor activities (including anticipation in the form of agendas and strategies) and of enabling and constraining factors
nor have given they insights into the transition from unstable to stable situations. The idea from evolutionary economics of a selection environment indicates the part played by economic,
and insights into the transition from present into future. 2. 3. Endogenous futures While new (emerging science and technology introduce novelties,
making use of recent insights from sociology and economics of technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (4)( 1995) 417 431.13 A. Rip, A co-evolutionary approach to reflexive governance and its ironies, in:
offer a clear insight that smarter policy and corporate decision-making processes are needed to deal with recent crisis and the threat of discruptive changes.
and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making
Taking into account insights from strategic planning and complle social systems thinking, policy studies are stressing the growing importance of interactions,
2) Policy strategic counselling by merging the insights generated in the context of policy informiin foresight activities with perspectives on the strategic positioning
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20: 369 87. City of Vienna. 2007a.
and could limit our openness to new insights. Thus reflexive knowledge might in the end confound our expectations.
but in producing perceptions and insights to that body of knowledge and‘imagineering'novel ways of addressing city sustainability'(Ratcliffe, Krawczyk,
but on representing an authentic social group, contributing perspectives and insights different from all the others. This was also the original intention expressed by the municipal leadership to explain why the young people were asked to participate in this vision project.
what perspectives and insights were they to contribute to the project? The case shows that their perspectives were predefined already.
For more insight into scenarios and visions work, see Van Notten (2005) and Gertler and Wolfe (2004.
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
and discuss information and insights with each other. This picks up the point above, that stakeholder engagement and participation is at the core of foresight activities
5. Based on these insights, Foresight practitioners do now deploy hybrid methodological frameworks where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to each specific purpose and context.
The need to tailor policy instruments to the characteristics of the targeted field is grounded well in insights from research on the dynamics of innovation and knowledge generation.
For some time now it has been suggested that insights from innovation systems research on the systemic nature of knowledge production should be taken into account by R&i policy to better target its instruments and approaches 16.
Experiences from the vertical R&i coordination between local, regional and (international levels provide insights into the challenges of managing multilayered innovation systems 23.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.9 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:
and client needs This paper describes just two of the many ways that scanning can lead to valuable insights.
or strategic space for universities to act upon the insights arising from foresight. The reviews cited above also showed that it was rare for individual institutions to have meaningful foresight activities.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari
in Europe, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.9 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo, Diversity in foresight insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
Many sorts of research tool can be sources of the insights required for FTA. Other tools can help us visualise issues,
and those produced by creative insight. Individual methods may be implemented so as to be located in somewhat different positions in the two dimensions,
linking, presenting and discussing information and insights with each other. This also enables them to internalise this knowledge through interpretations in specific contexts.
(and posits) as written insights, sets of procedure, and the like, provides information resulting from the knowledge.
Again we have boundary objects around which they strive to fuse their insights with those of others in the group,
At any of these points, members of the workshop may be introducing new insights and considerations, and linking the discussion of posits to practical actions in their own organisations.
not only will much of the relevant insight be generated on a bottom-up basis, but it is also quite possible that ways of classifying,
and Conferences was expressed the concern by some attendees that an opportunity was being missed to use the assembly of Strategic foresight experts to gain more insights into the state of Foresight content regarding critical issues and trends,
and would it not be useful to poll this group for Foresight insights? 2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,
which should be useful to the community. 3. 1. 1. The structure of the survey The survey consisted of two main parts.
Qualitative review of Foresight (content) insights and patterns; 3. 1. 3. Further analysis Analysis of each of the Domains of Interest according to%distribution by years of experience, country of residence, affiliation;
Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc. Table 1 STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.
and more experienced contributors have with how fast changes can really appear from insight to application.
and insights that can be used to guide future Foresight work and additional FTA surveys of this type or building upon this base.
or prophesying the future in favour of developing insight into possible futures and preparing for them.
The allusion being applied here is more to the lack of acceptance of Cassandra's insights.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
while some researchers combine established FTA METHODS, others bring in insights from new disciplines or techniques that originated in other disciplines.
Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
In this way the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events is enhanced through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights.
The information might not be detailed enough to get new insights into the probabilities for the occurrence of any known effects.
This insight implies that if we are always looking for weak signals we will certainly be caught unawares.
because they deliver useful insights However, other than some postgraduate foresight programs (provided on the basis that foresight is an interdisciplinary field grounded in a variety of social science),
The key insight of complexity-based foresight for policy making is that command and control approaches do not work in complex systems.
It also provides insight into how foresight techniques need to be developed to perform better in complex systems to enable better decision-making and policy making.
Furthermore, a systematic approach is necessary to map these indications that give insights in the situation.
we need insight into the emerging patterns and mechanisms. We will discuss the phenomena and develop a method for tracing them empirically (Section 2);
Q At the same time, basic research groups work on fundamental insights in for example, controlled growth of metallic or semiconductor arrays of nanotubes.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1106 These insights and empirical findings give the opportunity to trace emerging irreversibilities
insights in the fluidic situation and the dynamics of emerging technologies can be gained. Our attempt relates to the historical trend of technology assessment methods to incorporate
Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
insights are gained about the dynamics within the three levels and how the levels interact. These insights are valuable for understanding the dynamics of a particular technology
and help to trace emerging irreversibilities in the early phases of technological development. Acknowledgements The authors of this paper would like to thank Arie Rip, Ruud Smits, Ulrich Fiedeler and Nik Brown for their valuable comments.
the results and insights that are gained by applying CTA tools in practice can be fed back into theories of technology dynamics.
PAGE 348 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 9. Given the rich insights, ideas and visions contained in the collected contributions,
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
it may offer valuable insights for the entire TA process. Other assumed benefits for the TA practitioner are the identification of gaps of knowledge,
improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptiiv events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions;
These thought-provoking papers of the special issue provide a rich spectrum of insights and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges.
therefore, needs to emphasise processes that support insight, intuition, and innovation, instead of relying on data collected using historically important categories and measurement instruments.
We can use the above analysis to gain some novel insights into this debate. The Bergsonian story about the emergence of the biological eye and vision is structured in three acts.
there is little reason to believe that conventional‘impact analysis'models could lead to useful insights if innovation matters.
Politics and Values and Norms) set to begin to offer risky insights into what is possible in all the STEEPV themes and their probabilities for the future.
In thisway, the interviewers gained insights into the interviewees thinking processes leading to questionnaire responses,
Functions for policy Description Informing policy Generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options,
thus, to study the insights from this literature, and consider what they mean for the process of foresight.
but lack insight into the details that may hinder the realisation. For them, the possibilities appear as facts.
An example here is that public participation in new technologies often does not lead to new and heterodox insights;
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87. Dierkes, M.,U. Hoffmann,
Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 5: 608 26.
These different pieces of insight are matched finally through an interactive process that brings the social researchers from Philips Design and the technologists from Philips Research together with the business managers from all the product divisions of the company.
Insights about socioculttura trends are exchanged and made coherent with those about technologies and markets, to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,
Insight from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 369 87. Daheim, D,
which social relations and the communication of insights and knowledge (Georghiou et al. 2008) are critical for successful outcomes.
and coordinate resources Design the business FTA as a source of strategic intelligence provides insights into possible and desirable directions
Once foresight has provided insights into possible business directions, forecasting and technollog assessment are essential associates, both
Insights gained from the novel application of visualization tools, coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
Scope is a more traditional insight into roadmapping methodology that separates, for example, technology roadmaps and market roadmaps.
and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
The first insight is to start with the fundamentals such as defining the organisation's core purpose, framed in a systemic-temporal paradox.
The second insight is to endorse structural openness. This means to define a space of possibilities unfurled in the context of the core purpose.
The third insight is about an anticipatory culture. The fundamentals and competencies need to be positioned in the context of‘mobile strategies'that enable the continuous elaboration of targets and the planning of actions.
Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research policy 33, nos. 6 7: 897 920.
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
and‘‘dialogue''as a creative process aimed at generating insight and, in some cases, consensus In the case of strategic dialogues,
''Again, we draw on insights from the Harvard Negotiation Project (Fisher and Ury, 1991. 4. 3 Step 3:
I also draw on insights from the participatory events convened as part of the work programme. The article takes the structure that follows.
and trends with national context and insights. The method described in this paper is but one example of how work on grand challenges could be refined
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
which, in turn, provides insights and capabilities to shift organisations and ultimately societies towards new directions.
when sharing FTA findings with stakeholders who are expected to follow up with action are essential for building ownership whilst providing decisionmakker with insights on the limits of the FTA results.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.73 B b. Hughes, P. D. Johnston, Sustainable futures:
and the manifold convergence of information and molecular technologies that are contributing enormously to new insights in simulation methods and evolutionary programming.
making use of recent insights from sociology and economics of technology, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 7 (1995) 417 431.50 J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1961.51 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:
The main purpose of this combination of EMA and SD is to gain insight into what kinds of surprising dynamics can occur given a variety of uncertainties and a basic understanding of the system.
in order to get insight into the bandwidth of expected outcomes, and the identification of conditions under which significant shifts in performance can be expected.
EMA is used in this case to create insight into plausible dynamics. That is, it serves as an existence proof generator. 3. 1. 1. Model Traditionally,
Fig. 1 displays the main feedback loops of a generic simulation model developed to create insight into the types of dynamics that can occur.
It provides insight into the relative density of the results across the range of values. Note that one should be careful not to interpret these densities in a probabilistic sense,
is to create insight into the possible dynamics and to explore possible strategies to cope with
and to create insight into the specific range of conditions under which one plan would perform better than the other,
To provide insight into how the various uncertainties jointly determine outcomes, a classification tree was made based on the results.
In particular the use of the classification tree in order to create insight into how uncertainties are mapped to classes of outcomes is useful.
and communication of EMA insights are thus of crucial importance for its successful real world application.
which the resulting insights are implemented in on-going and forthcoming actions. However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of a broader social process 5. Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing
and provides a powerful approach that offers insights for academics and practitioners into how we constitute knowledge
In the context of this paper, we will argue that this process of reflexive inquiry will provide the basis for creating new insights
In the project report, the insights of the foresight exercise are used to articulate the research priorities. Still, the implementation could be improved with regards to knowledge dissemination e g. education
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.6 P. D. Andersen, M. Borup, K. Borch, J. Kaivo-oja, A. Eerola, T. Finnfjörnsson, E. Øverland
Integrating Insights, Transforming Institutions and Shaping Innovation systems, Seville, 12 13,may 2011, 2011.11 A. Webster, Technologies in transition, policies in transition:
The report included insights from US experts in the field, examinations of lessons learned, and integrated international perspectives collected through multinational workshops held in the US, Europe and Asia.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.60 U. Felt, M. Fochler, Machineries for making publics:
organisations or infrastructure. 3. INFU findings and lessons learnt 3. 1. The future of innovation preliminary insights The findings indicate interesting changes in the mediation between innovation demand
As this paper is focussing on the methodological insights emerging from the INFU project we will not go deeper into the findings and conclusions
In particular the fact that the external expertswere identified only throughout the progress of the project depending on the interview results proved extremely useful as the project was able to respond to the insights in a very flexible manner.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.2 R. Miller, Futures literacy:
combining insights from innovation systems and multilevel perspective in a comprehensive‘failures'framework, Research policy 41 (2012) 1037 1042.
there are also instances of bringing in insights from other disciplines or from techniques rooted in other disciplines.
but the latter is more likely to give insights that can assist in comprehending transformations that are going on
while adding their own valuable insights. Contributors are cited not normally individually except where a published output is referenced.
Some papers proceed by integrating insights and concepts from other disciplines such as sociology, design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory.
Dannemand Andersen and Baungaard Rasmussen delve into the national policy context for FTA by drawing on insights from sociology and anthropology.
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