Scanning

Environmental scanning (18)
Horizon scanning (199)
Scanning (139)
Scanning process (33)

Synopsis: Scanning:

In the paper entitled dthe role of Scanning in Open Intelligent Systemst, Patton describes the system in place in SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE to scan the environment

Therefore, a consolidated integration of analytical and exploratory scientific methods (e g. system analysis and modelling) on the one hand and of participatory processes and interactions with experts and stakeholders on the other would help enhance the scientific credibility of foresight results. 7‘Environmental scanning'along the lines

for environmental scanning, foresight, J. Futures Stud. Strateg. Think. Pol. 1 (5)( 1999) 441 451.16 J. Voros, Reframing environmental scanning:

an integral approach, foresight, J. Futures Stud. Strateg. Think. Pol. 3 (6)( 2001) 533 551.17 J. Gavigan, F. Scapolo, M. Keenan,

e g. the diagnosis phase will apply environmental scanning and trend extrapolation, scenario building and Delphi method may serve the prognosis phase

report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:

http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20%Scanning%20centre/Fanclubnews/Feb2008. asp (accessed 7th july 2008.

Both the environment-scanning and competence-based approaches are based on the assumption that rational-analytical processes are used in strategic decision-making.

A productive use of data requires a thorough scanning of what's available; its analysis and preparation in order to capture its essence;

In addition the conference aims to debate the use of horizon scanning as a process that enables policy to explore actively emerging challenges

or scanning activities which are performed as regular operations. Foresight can be characterised as a systemic instrument 25 aiming at enhanced capabilities in innovation systems and their parts 26.

The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;

The effort is part of a continuous scanning process and Scan program that allows SRICBB to gauge the ongoing turbulent confluence of culture, commerce,

For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.

This article describes the scanning process as SRIC-BI practices it, the importance of open intelligence systems,

what benefits the scanning process can provide to organizations, and what problems organizations typically run into when setting up scanning systems.

D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Scanning process; Open intelligence systems; SRIC-BI 1. The premise Predicting the future is impossible.

The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments, and changes in cultural factors and 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:

For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities

and cultural environments on a monthly basis. James B. Smith originally brought the scanning process to SRI International in 1979 with the assistance of the futurist consulting group Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc,

The scanning process is the foundation of the open intelligence services that the Scan program provides to its clients.

This paper describes the scanning process and how it works. Uncertainties and risks have proliferated during the past decade as a result of the increasing complexity of and turbulence in the marketplaces in

we'll need to depend on humans for scanning, particularly in the case of open intelligence systems.

Scanning depends heavily on human cognition and pattern-recognition capabilities. As Ray Kurzweil points out in his The Age of Spiritual Machines 3

Scanning also depends heavily on group processes. The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,

and administration) to discuss the signals of change that scanning turns up is productive. The diversity sets up creative synergies that generate new ideas

The companies that currently incorporate externalities well usually depend on a leader at the top of the corporation who performs the scanning function on a continual basis,

and for nurturing a futures orientation more broadly in an organization. 3. The process The scanning process is necessarily a continuous one.

and the documentation of findings for management are all part of the normal, ongoing cycles of the scanning process.

Our description of the scanning process begins with the collection of data points from the business, cultural,

The breadth of scope inherent in the diversity of the categories represents one of the most important strengths of the scanning process.

The scanning system captures and assembles the data points in the form of short abstracts, which the scanners enter in an online system using standard Web browsers.

New employees at SRIC-BI generally participate in the scanning process for 6 months before managing to submit consistently valuable abstracts.

In SRIC-BI's scanning system, each month's set of 100-plus abstracts serves as the starting point for a monthly open-ended discussion

and client needs This paper describes just two of the many ways that scanning can lead to valuable insights.

In the first method, a cluster of several abstracts characterizes a conceptual overlay that an organization can lift off the scanning data

First time observers or participants in the scanning process frequently comment on the fact that the meetings are dramatically different from meetings that people typically experience in a corporate setting.

Following the scanning meetings, the filtering process that identifies valuable ideas and knowledge for an organization can begin in earnest.

and potential implications. 4. The players Because the scanning process profits from a wide variety of perspectives in the abstract-collection process and the Scan meeting,

Scanning experience on the part of participants is highly valuable for success with the scanning process. Learning what constitutes a good Scan abstract can take 6 months to a year of attending Scan meetings.

unless new developments merit a resurfacing of the topic. 5. The product The most important product of the scanning process is increased an awareness on the part of planners, employees,

The scanning process provides a language, infrastructure, and mind-set for cultivating a future orientation in any organization.

A pull mechanism, in which employees in the client company can pull content from the scanning abstract data base as the need arises,

and questions that scanning regularly surfaces are not typically on the radar screen or agenda of managers, planners,

In addition to performing ongoing scanning for clients who wish to outsource the scanning function, SRIC-BI has the consulting expertise

and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.

scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.

and on the other hand ongoing activities such as horizon scanning activity which provides the basis for informing the first type of approach.

Tools that have been developed in such contexts for horizon scanning trend extrapolation, stakeholder mapping, eliciting expert opinion, and so on are among the panoply of FTA METHODS.

Typical methods employed here are literature reviews, interviews with experts, horizon scanning. Roughly Horton's subtasks (i),(ii) and (iii.

and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.

and essential outputs of Horizon scanning. 2 The UK and The netherlands have conducted their national horizon scans. In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning

to be based in the Foresight directorate of the Government office for Science (see www. foresight. gov. uk). As another example,

and questions for policy 1. Work conducted within the scope of the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) included a strong element of scanning in the form of detecting

so it is deemed even more important to work toward a more commonly accepted set of definitions for purposes of future work in this area. 2. 1. Trends The starting point for scanning definitions is usually to identify the key trends which are presently evident in the broad sense of being both discernible

Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defines Horizon scanning as‘‘the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning.

Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.

K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,

together with the identification of emerging pressures through horizon scanning, are likely to be the best means of informing

The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.

Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results and outcomes (futures) resulting from a change process,

environmental scanning Review on the background reports commissioned by the Prime minister's Office, specifying the end future state that the development paths are aiming and based on this material,

or six hydrogen atoms in line. 6 IBM researchers (G. Binnig and H. Rohrer) received the Nobel prize for their discovery of the scanning tunneling microscope (STM).

or her thinking with unusual ideas stemming from over the horizon scanning relating to the various forms of ignorance is important.

this is the basic condition that underlies the notions of‘over-the-horizon scanning, 'a necessary precursor to any FTA to achieve its future orientation.

The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:

the first regards environmental scanning and the detection of new events and drivers of change (Mendonça and Sapio 2009.

Instead, environmental scanning efforts and, most of all, explorative actions (e g. new concepts of product and service, prototypes, commercialisation in target market niches, venture initiatives,

and boundary uncertainty are more likely to focus their predictive efforts on environmental scanning and explorative actions (e g. venture initiatives

Firms operating in mature industrrie have to rely as well on environmental scanning and explorative actions to look for likely technological discontinuities and major shifts in customer needs,

Environmental scanning and organizational strategy. Strategic management Journal 3, no. 2: 159 74. Hamel, G. 2000. Leading the revolution.

On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21.

Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31.

Introduction Foresight and competitive intelligence (CI) are two fields that seek to address future-oriented environmental scanning (Calof and Smith, 2010.

They outline that the main exception to mainstream practice has been the emergence of horizon scanning activities.

such as embedded units or continuous scanning organisations. FTA clearly has a role in articulating recognised grand challenges and

6 The Risk assessment and Horizon scanning Initiative (Singapore) developed a Service Oriented Based Horizon scanning Architecture (SOSA) allowing sharing perspectives on data sets

and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.

Making scanning results public would allow people concerned with complex phenomena, like geopolitics, climate change, or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge

. H. Wai, Developing a horizon scanning system for early warning, in: 12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, US Naval War College, Newport R i. USA, June 19 21,2007, 2007, Available at:

which may affect future European public policies by applying horizon scanning and foresight. She has worked in several foresight projects mainly in the advancement of the application of foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.

The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.

After the initial scanning process for signals of change the signalswere clustered by dimensions of change.

In the first phase, by scanning weak signals 22, all sorts of observations of striking innovation practiceswere collected in a loose and open manner.

The list of sources was extended during the scanning process in order to include knowledge gained while searching. The sources selected include daily newspapers from Europe and other world regions

Scientific journals were excluded from the weak signal scanning. Instead, a thorough review of academic literature on new innovation patterns was carried out 16.

The aim was to avoid misinterpretations because of hidden signals (blind spots) caused by intra-systemic perception filters of the project team. 2. 4. Prolonged divergence In the initial phase of a scenario building exercise, the environmental scanning,

the inductive scanning of signals with only minimal imposition of predefined categories proved an adequate approach for the INFU case.

We feel that the integration of elements fromdifferent foresight approaches such as weak signal scanning and diverse scenario approaches might help in addressing structural transformation.

and scanning of what is going on in research than is currently the case. The bigger change in policy is in the domain of strategic

Similar reactions have followed epidemics (the institution of government horizon scanning in the UK was at least in part a reaction to the BSE epidemic.

Horizon scanning experiences are converging on the need for holistic rather than atomistic information. There is a need to assembling plausible narratives,

This is encapsulated in a move from discrete programmes to embedded units or continuous scanning institutions.

The Research2015 process included foresight methods such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels, dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops.

Mapping OECD horizontal scanning Public hearing among all interested citizens Input from ministries 125 trends and challenges 432 suggestions 90 suggestions In principle, everybody interested in strategic research 2:

Horizon scanning Centre, the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS) programme in Singapore, among others. Many of the specific projects undertaken by these different organisations are documented well.

These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.

Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.

Drawing on insights yielded through the scanning exercise in Phase 1, six current user profiles were identified.

P. Schwartz, Plotting Your Scenarios, Global Business Network (GBN), San francisco, 2004.28 C. W. Choo, Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning, Information Research 7

and methods in horizon scanning: lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming.

scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 50 C. Bezold, C. Bettles, C. Juech, E. Michelson, J. Peck, K. Wilkins, Foresight for Smart Globalization:

Table 2 shows examples of modelling and horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is a rather new FTA tool,

as further described below, and could become a 14th family of methods in Scapolo and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,

The paper by van Rij looks at horizon scanning from an adaptive foresight angle by combining the experiences

and data of three governmental horizon Table 2. FTA scores for modelling and horizon scanning FTA score for modelling FTA score for horizon scanning Characteristic Score Comment Characteristic

The analysis leads to specific process recommendatiion for national horizon scannings related to how data are gathered, analysed, synthesised and used.

horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal

This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.

this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.

and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).

3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.

What is horizon scanning? The word scanning usually refers to a repeated and systematic observation of a space or a body,

which is meant to distinguish and locate phenomena that for some reason need to be watched more closely. It is used frequently in warfare to develop early warniin for attacks (radar,

There are many descriptions and definitions of horizon scanning in use. Here we give one based on definitions used in different horizon scanning prograamme in the UK and The netherlands.

I Dr Victor van Rij is at The netherlands Horizon scanning Team, Knowledge Directorate, Ministerie Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschappen, Postbus 16375/IPC 5200

2500 BJ Den haag, The netherlands; E-mail: v. vanrij@minocw. nl or vvanrij@planet. nl. The author wishes to thank the members of the Joint horizon scanning Team:

Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,

Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to imprrov the robustness of policies

and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda (this definition has been derived from the UK Foresight Horizon scanning Centre (HSC) and Horizon scan Netherlands),

Horizon scanning is also: looking ahead, beyond usual timescales (as far as we can see) and across disciplinary and departmental borders (cutting across different policy domains),

seeking out alternattiv sources of information and challenging impliici assumptions about the future that underlie today's decisions (UK HSC).

and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:

and other scanning techniques), covering the area that is to be scanned. A focus on all signals that might have significant impact on the strategic missions

Who engages in horizon scanning? Horizon scans are initiated and used by different privaat and public organisations, mainly for strategic reasons.

Horizon scanning also appears in departtment of health (and ageing), e g. in New zealand, Australia4 and Canada,

5 but these scanning activities seem to have limited a very scope (only assesssin new health technologies).

Horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of policies and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda It is also looking ahead,

Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development

but fits well with the observation that there is an increasing need for more holistic approaches to informing strateegi decision-making (e g. environmental scanning,

) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.

7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.

NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005, which covers expectations across a wide range of societal areas

An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,

Nongovernmental organisations have carried out both narrow and broad horizon scanning, even at a global level. Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.

The exercise of the High-level Expert Group on Key technologies for Europe9 can also be considered a horizon scanning exercise,

Why join and compare horizon scanning? The rationale for joining and comparing horizon scans lies in the expectation that the sum of the scans may reveal issues that have been overlooked in the separate national scans.

Finally, we are persuaded that horizon scanning gives us a tool to create a common understanding and shared awareness of a wide variety of future problems, threats and opportunities (PTOS),

exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level; compare basic data (lists of issues

and formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.

Exchange of experiences, know-how and comparison methods Descriptions of horizon scanning processes in a number of countries were collected

In this way information was gathered not only about the rationales for national horizon scanning, its goals, positioning and design,

a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.

Results policy impacts and implications Comparison of national horizon scans Rationales for governmental horizon scanning All three scans can be considered as very broad-scope foresight processes that look well beyond the preseentday horizon for new

and to encourage more resilient policy-making. UK horizon scanning and foresight are aimed explicitly at developing resillien policies that are adaptive to changing and uncerrtai futures.

In addition to the scanning and foresight there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society.

Horizon scanning can therefore be seen as an adapttiv foresight (Eriksson and Weber, 2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.

Governmment use horizon scanning to: Widen the scope for policy -and decision-makers (by supplying systematically gathered and analyyse data on opportunities,

Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,

which adapted the issue descriptions to the Danish situation after Horizon scanning can be seen as an adaptive foresight instrument that deliberately challenges policy-makers to look at uncertainties

and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team

Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February

Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS and in the UK horizon scan are called issues.

Horizzo scanning is different from trend scanning (Rollwaage et al. 2007) in that it does not solely focus on trends,

Positioning of the scans The UK HSC was established in 2005 with a central function to use horizon scanning

support horizon scanning carried out by others insiid government; and identify the implications of Emerging s&t and enable others to act on them.

The horizon scanning task will be maintained and has been provisionally realloccate to the newly formed Knowledge Directorate of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science.

2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,

and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.

The disappearance of the COS and reallocattio of the horizon scanning task creates a new situation that should lead to a more effective positioonin of the horizon scanning task.

which is supported strongly by the so-called FAN club that the HSC established to suppoor horizon scanning activities in government and elsewhere.

Several departments are now initiating their own horizon scanning projects. Joint database A joint database has been established containing 430 issues

and EC-level organisations that have performed horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the past or are planning to carry out horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the future.

The function of this network will be the exchange of experience and know-how, but also to combine

but which were also complementtary This means that cooperation might be rewarding to improve the scanning images for each country

Overall we conclude that horizon scanning as perforrme in the three cooperating countries is a powerffu tool

(and non-European countries that regulaarl perform horizon scanning, and countries and organisations that contribute relevant data

but could also serve as a platform for exchanging experiennc and addressing methodological questions relevaan to horizon scanning such as the role of values (prevention of biases),

the identification and significaanc of faint or weak signals and wild cards, how to deal with complexity, the learning function of horizon scanning, stakeholder participation and how to increeas impact.

Technology and Innovatiio project that focuses on the involvement of civiliaan through horizon scanning driven public debate (CIVISTI),

It is recommended that horizon scanning is embedded and closely relaate to strategic functions and other forwardloookin functions in

technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities

the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovatiio (DASTI), the UK Horizon scanning Centre, the Commisssi van Overleg Sectorraden voor Onderzoek en Ontwikkeling (COS), the Malta Council

which was limited more for the Danish scan due to the fact that the Danish scan had limited a purpose. 4. Australia and New zealand Horizon scanning Network (health technology scan).

Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, Environnmenta Scanning Service. Available at<http://www. cadth. ca/index. php/en/hta/programs/horizonscanning>,last accessed 1 february 2010.6. UK HSC.

Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:

Report on futures tool, horizon scanning. Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.

UK government, 2006, Horizon scanning and Futures Team, Sciennc Economics and Statistics DG, 2006. Looking back at looking forwards, Next steps for Horizon scanning and Futurres DEFRA 2006.

Available from<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk/Viewdocument image. aspx? Doc id=192>,last accessed 1 june 2009.

An Environment Research Funders'Forum report-horizon scanning study. Available from<http://www. erff. org. uk/publications/reports/20071212-horizonscanning-report. aspx>,last accessed 1 june 2009.

Horizon scanning in Government. Zurich: ETH Centre for Security Studies. Available from<http://www. isn. ethz. ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?

and medical info on mobile Location-based advertising Photo service Heartbeat information Making appetizers Scanning information Dentist appointment Mobile video calling Webcam

< Back - Next >

Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011