Scanning

Environmental scanning (18)
Horizon scanning (199)
Scanning (139)
Scanning process (33)

Synopsis: Scanning: Scanning:

In the paper entitled dthe role of Scanning in Open Intelligent Systemst, Patton describes the system in place in SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE to scan the environment

http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Horizon%20%Scanning%20centre/Fanclubnews/Feb2008. asp (accessed 7th july 2008.

Both the environment-scanning and competence-based approaches are based on the assumption that rational-analytical processes are used in strategic decision-making.

A productive use of data requires a thorough scanning of what's available; its analysis and preparation in order to capture its essence;

or scanning activities which are performed as regular operations. Foresight can be characterised as a systemic instrument 25 aiming at enhanced capabilities in innovation systems and their parts 26.

The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;

For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.

when setting up scanning systems. D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Scanning process; Open intelligence systems;

For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities

we'll need to depend on humans for scanning, particularly in the case of open intelligence systems.

Scanning depends heavily on human cognition and pattern-recognition capabilities. As Ray Kurzweil points out in his The Age of Spiritual Machines 3

Scanning also depends heavily on group processes. The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,

and administration) to discuss the signals of change that scanning turns up is productive. The diversity sets up creative synergies that generate new ideas

The companies that currently incorporate externalities well usually depend on a leader at the top of the corporation who performs the scanning function on a continual basis,

The scanning system captures and assembles the data points in the form of short abstracts, which the scanners enter in an online system using standard Web browsers.

In SRIC-BI's scanning system, each month's set of 100-plus abstracts serves as the starting point for a monthly open-ended discussion

and client needs This paper describes just two of the many ways that scanning can lead to valuable insights.

In the first method, a cluster of several abstracts characterizes a conceptual overlay that an organization can lift off the scanning data

Following the scanning meetings, the filtering process that identifies valuable ideas and knowledge for an organization can begin in earnest.

A pull mechanism, in which employees in the client company can pull content from the scanning abstract data base as the need arises,

and questions that scanning regularly surfaces are not typically on the radar screen or agenda of managers, planners,

In addition to performing ongoing scanning for clients who wish to outsource the scanning function, SRIC-BI has the consulting expertise

and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.

scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.

and related techniques will allow for enhanced use of new IT in scanning for scientific and technological developments and their implications.

and questions for policy 1. Work conducted within the scope of the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) included a strong element of scanning in the form of detecting

so it is deemed even more important to work toward a more commonly accepted set of definitions for purposes of future work in this area. 2. 1. Trends The starting point for scanning definitions is usually to identify the key trends which are presently evident in the broad sense of being both discernible

or six hydrogen atoms in line. 6 IBM researchers (G. Binnig and H. Rohrer) received the Nobel prize for their discovery of the scanning tunneling microscope (STM).

such as embedded units or continuous scanning organisations. FTA clearly has a role in articulating recognised grand challenges and

and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.

Making scanning results public would allow people concerned with complex phenomena, like geopolitics, climate change, or issues at the interplay between science and society, to keep track of the content of one's intellectual portfolio of knowledge

. H. Wai, Developing a horizon scanning system for early warning, in: 12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, US Naval War College, Newport R i. USA, June 19 21,2007, 2007, Available at:

The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.

In the first phase, by scanning weak signals 22, all sorts of observations of striking innovation practiceswere collected in a loose and open manner.

Scientific journals were excluded from the weak signal scanning. Instead, a thorough review of academic literature on new innovation patterns was carried out 16.

the inductive scanning of signals with only minimal imposition of predefined categories proved an adequate approach for the INFU case.

We feel that the integration of elements fromdifferent foresight approaches such as weak signal scanning and diverse scenario approaches might help in addressing structural transformation.

and scanning of what is going on in research than is currently the case. The bigger change in policy is in the domain of strategic

This is encapsulated in a move from discrete programmes to embedded units or continuous scanning institutions.

Mapping OECD horizontal scanning Public hearing among all interested citizens Input from ministries 125 trends and challenges 432 suggestions 90 suggestions In principle, everybody interested in strategic research 2:

Drawing on insights yielded through the scanning exercise in Phase 1, six current user profiles were identified.

The word scanning usually refers to a repeated and systematic observation of a space or a body,

Horizzo scanning may explore novel and unexpected issuues as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signals. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to imprrov the robustness of policies

and other scanning techniques), covering the area that is to be scanned. A focus on all signals that might have significant impact on the strategic missions

5 but these scanning activities seem to have limited a very scope (only assesssin new health technologies).

NISTEP (2005) in Japan executed a scanning-like activity during 2005, which covers expectations across a wide range of societal areas

An increasing number of countries in Europe are considering undertaking horiizo scanning activities in the near future like Malta, Norway,

The exercise of the High-level Expert Group on Key technologies for Europe9 can also be considered a horizon scanning exercise,

In addition to the scanning and foresight there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society.

Horizzo scanning is different from trend scanning (Rollwaage et al. 2007) in that it does not solely focus on trends,

but which were also complementtary This means that cooperation might be rewarding to improve the scanning images for each country

technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities

Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, Environnmenta Scanning Service. Available at<http://www. cadth. ca/index. php/en/hta/programs/horizonscanning>,last accessed 1 february 2010.6. UK HSC.

and medical info on mobile Location-based advertising Photo service Heartbeat information Making appetizers Scanning information Dentist appointment Mobile video calling Webcam

A brief scanning of their deliverables shows that the use of FTA varied from one project to another.

because they underlie key scoping decisions on scanning emerging issues and thus shape both implicit and explicit expectations that influence scanners and their behaviour.

This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.

This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues.

methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor

whereby the output of scanning can be incorporated effectively into vision building and strategic planning. The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.

3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively

as well as the different scanning approaches and scanning tools that were applied in the SESTI project. Section 3 provides a comparative analysis of the two scanning approaches

and the associated tools that were used in SESTI. Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.

and issue-centred scanning There are different approaches which underpin the scanning process. One way of approaching scanning is to differentiate between exploratory

and issue-centred scanning. The exploratory scanning approach concentrates on assembling potential emerging issues from a wide variety of data from different signal sources

while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.

In the first approach emerging issues are identified and described by processing informatiio from different sources,

either confirm or deny the real emergence of the issue. 2. 2. 1 Exploratory scanning.

A refined method of exploratory scanning is offered by applying a more bottom-up approach where the analyst examines the observations and topics that different (independent) scanning communities focus upon,

The aim of the exploratory scanning approach is to identify a long list of signals that are precursors for emerging issues only demarcated by the policy domain selected (e g. healthcare or energy.

The exploratory scanning approach includes various steps:.Setting a heuristic search profile: Based on the domain of the audience a search profile should be set in order to obtain a more focused search.

Broad scanning for signals: The preliminary identificatiio of signals can use various sources, like wikis, Twitter,

Text-mining can also be used to identify clusters. 2. 2. 2 Issue-centred scanning. Whereas the above, bottom-up approach can be considered as hypothesisgenerrating the issue-centred approach can be seen rather as evaluating a hypothesis (the hypothesis of proposed emerging issues.

Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals and to monitor

These elements give clues for further scanning of signals that may support or deny the possibility that the story will occur (the signals are known as secondary signals).

If the seconddar signals have manifested themselves in the period before the scanning was done, then they can be added to the description of the issues.

It should also be clear that issue-centred scanning does not predict issues. Rather it provides tools to alert for potential impact-rich issues that need policy attention.

the two approaches should be seen as complementary (see Fig. 1). Exploratory scanning mainly refers to the first scanning phase (identification of weak signals)

while issue-centred scanning spans throughout phases 1 and 2 of the SESTI scanning process (cf.

and scanning tools Both of the above approaches used the internet as their main source of information.

validate and discuss the scanning results. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:

4. web-based search engines as Google, Google news Timeline, 5 Google Insight6 and Bing7. expert review and survey. visits to conferences

the scanning tools can be grouped with regards to the level of participation, and the means of processing information.

The results of the scanning can also be a starting point for taking into account the areas of unknown unknowns by spotting gaps in the scan picture

The reluctance of the community to contribute made it difficult to use this tool in any of the scanning phases.

when the fields are specified and the scanning starts from well-defined fields such as energy, conservation or science and policy (cf.

Linkages to issues that were already on the radar of policy-makers were considered helpful for improovin the relevance and usefulness of the scanning outcomes.

Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.

and approaches (see Table 3). A second challenge is that the two different approaches (exploratory scanning

and issue-centred scanning) do not cover the whole scanning cycle but complement each other (cf.

they are not directly comparabble They can be considered to be two departure points for the scanning activity.

For example, the exploratory scanning approach represented by tools such as text-mining, Twitter or wiki scanning hardly goes beyond the second phase,

On the other hand, in the focused expert review, the main scanning process of the issue-centred scanning, spans through all the different phases of the scanning cycle

or combination of methods that cover all the differren phases of the scanning activity. Following the framework of tools

Twitter/wiki scanning which is complemented by processsin of weak signals..Focused expert review which is complemented by text-mining..

The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach, while the last two refer mainly to the issue-centred approach.

and means to cover the needs of the different scanning phases as the same method may have advantages with respect to one criterion

and scanning phase but disadvantages for another. Additionally, the SESTI experience has shown the crucial value of networks and human expertise.

Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at

as they enable systematic scanning and retrieval of‘inside'information in the first scanning phases as well as in verifyyin the results.

which may be required throughout all the scanning phases. 5. Conclusion Horizon scanning is seen generally as an instrument with two main functions:

In the SESTI project this was done by internet scanning with the use of the publicly available search engines such as Google and Bing.

Any other info piece for second-round scanning (observation time depends on scanner) Experts'knowledge; literature;

In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information As reported in survey responses and in literature and synthesised by reviewers.

In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information. Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics

In focused expert review narratiive in the primary scanning usually contain already policy implications or even policy advice of author.

While secondary scanning usually gives ideas on elaboration of proposed policies or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature.

Several lessons can be drawn from this experience that should be kept in mind by scanning practitioners and policy-makers alike.

Different approaches to scanning identifying and assessing potential emerging issues exist. It is clear that issues are dynamic,

as well as to maintain close interaction between the clients of the analysis (e g. decision/policy-makers) and those undertaking the scanning task.

Given also the limitations of the scanning methods as outlined above, the specific nature of the field examined,

scanning results may only be accepted with reluctance in evidence-based policy-making environments. In this regard, obtaining relevant informattio alongside validating sources,

Pang, A s.-K. 2010)‘ Social scanning: Improving futures through Web 2. 0; or, finally a use for Twitter',Futures, 42: 1222 30.

It should be noted that this exercise was limited not to the scanning of signals: rather, it sought to achieve greater visibility

such as trends, are explored. 2. 1 Scoping the scanning exercise Early on, the scoping of a scanning exercise necessitates fundamental methodological decisions that partly demarcaat

which signals are likely to appear relevant. Some exerccise have sought to scan across a truly comprehensive spectrum (Glenn et al. 2010;

Horizon scanning. 223 potentially significant and thus worth scanning. Here, there may be bias to align scanning exercises along well-established fields

or to follow path-dependent institutioona structures (Ko nno la and Unruh 2007) that reflect, for instance, the mandate of the client or sponsor,

But even if the scope of scanning is left rather open, other design issues, such as available resouurce or the duration of the exercise, may impose comparrabl bounds. 2. 2 Sense-making:

Inseparable from scanning Defining‘what'specifically is to be scanned is just as imporrtan as demarcating the scope of the scanning activity.

Saritas and Smith (2011), for instance, consider trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities, and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned.

and anything that is related to substantial potential change'before he elaborates an alternative scanning framework that embodies concepts such as weak signals, drivers and trends.

Scanning systems may comprise quantitative methods such as bibliometrics, cybermetrics and patent analysis, which may also convey patterns of emerging issues.

Thus, it appears that whatever the methodological basis of scanning is, sense-making lies at the heart of providing well-founded support for policy-making. 2. 3 Stakeholders:

The consultation of recognized experts in scanning may lend credibility to the exercise and its results.

which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,

In its approach, the workshop evolved from a loosely structured discussion of issues resulting from the scanning of reports to a collective sense-making process that focused on how such issues could be brought together into crosscutting challenges

Based on their experiences from the exercise on‘Scanning for emerging science and technology issues',Amanatidou et al.

For example, while the institutionalization of scanning activities serves to establish close links with decision-makers and makes it possible to build up capabilities on continuous basis,

the contracted external services and organized international networks can still allow for a more rapid and flexible mode of carrying out extensive scanning activities.

Overall, it appears the methodological approach in this exercise which had well-defined phases for the systematic‘bottom-up'scanning of issues

Blackburn, S.,Cudd, P. and Hawley, M. 2010)‘ A horizon scanning system for identifying new telehealth innovations',Global Telemedicine and ehealth Updates:

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