| Environmental scanning (18) |  |
| Horizon scanning (199) | |
| Scanning (139) | |
| Scanning process (33) | |
| Environmental scanning (18) | |
| Horizon scanning (199) | |
| Scanning (139) | |
| Scanning process (33) | |
report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:
In addition the conference aims to debate the use of horizon scanning as a process that enables policy to explore actively emerging challenges
and on the other hand ongoing activities such as horizon scanning activity which provides the basis for informing the first type of approach.
Tools that have been developed in such contexts for horizon scanning trend extrapolation, stakeholder mapping, eliciting expert opinion, and so on are among the panoply of FTA METHODS.
Typical methods employed here are literature reviews, interviews with experts, horizon scanning. Roughly Horton's subtasks (i),(ii) and (iii.
and essential outputs of Horizon scanning. 2 The UK and The netherlands have conducted their national horizon scans. In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
to be based in the Foresight directorate of the Government office for Science (see www. foresight. gov. uk). As another example,
Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defines Horizon scanning as‘‘the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning.
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.
K. Steinmueller, Thinking about The Future-Strategic Anticipation and RAHS by Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS), National Security Coordination Secretariat, Singapore, 2008.9 M. P. Barber,
together with the identification of emerging pressures through horizon scanning, are likely to be the best means of informing
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results and outcomes (futures) resulting from a change process,
or her thinking with unusual ideas stemming from over the horizon scanning relating to the various forms of ignorance is important.
this is the basic condition that underlies the notions of‘over-the-horizon scanning, 'a necessary precursor to any FTA to achieve its future orientation.
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21.
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 222 31.
They outline that the main exception to mainstream practice has been the emergence of horizon scanning activities.
6 The Risk assessment and Horizon scanning Initiative (Singapore) developed a Service Oriented Based Horizon scanning Architecture (SOSA) allowing sharing perspectives on data sets
which may affect future European public policies by applying horizon scanning and foresight. She has worked in several foresight projects mainly in the advancement of the application of foresight as an instrument for policy-making formulation.
Similar reactions have followed epidemics (the institution of government horizon scanning in the UK was at least in part a reaction to the BSE epidemic.
Horizon scanning experiences are converging on the need for holistic rather than atomistic information. There is a need to assembling plausible narratives,
The Research2015 process included foresight methods such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels, dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops.
Horizon scanning Centre, the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning (RAHS) programme in Singapore, among others. Many of the specific projects undertaken by these different organisations are documented well.
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
and methods in horizon scanning: lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming.
scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming. 50 C. Bezold, C. Bettles, C. Juech, E. Michelson, J. Peck, K. Wilkins, Foresight for Smart Globalization:
Table 2 shows examples of modelling and horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is a rather new FTA tool,
as further described below, and could become a 14th family of methods in Scapolo and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,
The paper by van Rij looks at horizon scanning from an adaptive foresight angle by combining the experiences
and data of three governmental horizon Table 2. FTA scores for modelling and horizon scanning FTA score for modelling FTA score for horizon scanning Characteristic Score Comment Characteristic
The analysis leads to specific process recommendatiion for national horizon scannings related to how data are gathered, analysed, synthesised and used.
horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.
and desirability of joining the individual horizon scanning activities of the participating countries (the UK, Denmark and The netherlands).
3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
What is horizon scanning? The word scanning usually refers to a repeated and systematic observation of a space or a body,
There are many descriptions and definitions of horizon scanning in use. Here we give one based on definitions used in different horizon scanning prograamme in the UK and The netherlands.
I Dr Victor van Rij is at The netherlands Horizon scanning Team, Knowledge Directorate, Ministerie Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschappen, Postbus 16375/IPC 5200
2500 BJ Den haag, The netherlands; E-mail: v. vanrij@minocw. nl or vvanrij@planet. nl. The author wishes to thank the members of the Joint horizon scanning Team:
Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 8 Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats,
Overall, horizon scanning is intended to imprrov the robustness of policies and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda (this definition has been derived from the UK Foresight Horizon scanning Centre (HSC) and Horizon scan Netherlands),
Horizon scanning is also: looking ahead, beyond usual timescales (as far as we can see) and across disciplinary and departmental borders (cutting across different policy domains),
seeking out alternattiv sources of information and challenging impliici assumptions about the future that underlie today's decisions (UK HSC).
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
Who engages in horizon scanning? Horizon scans are initiated and used by different privaat and public organisations, mainly for strategic reasons.
Horizon scanning also appears in departtment of health (and ageing), e g. in New zealand, Australia4 and Canada,
Horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of policies and to identify gaps in the knowledge agenda It is also looking ahead,
Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
7 In the same year, the Netherlands8 started a national horizon scanning activity that covered a wide range of (potential) futuur problems, threats and opportunities in all poliic domains (societal sectors) and in S&t.
Nongovernmental organisations have carried out both narrow and broad horizon scanning, even at a global level. Well-known examples include the Internaationa Council for Science (2002) exercise that focused on societal issues and research agenda settiin and also its foresight analysis (International council for science, 2004.
Why join and compare horizon scanning? The rationale for joining and comparing horizon scans lies in the expectation that the sum of the scans may reveal issues that have been overlooked in the separate national scans.
Finally, we are persuaded that horizon scanning gives us a tool to create a common understanding and shared awareness of a wide variety of future problems, threats and opportunities (PTOS),
exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level; compare basic data (lists of issues
and formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.
Exchange of experiences, know-how and comparison methods Descriptions of horizon scanning processes in a number of countries were collected
In this way information was gathered not only about the rationales for national horizon scanning, its goals, positioning and design,
a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.
Results policy impacts and implications Comparison of national horizon scans Rationales for governmental horizon scanning All three scans can be considered as very broad-scope foresight processes that look well beyond the preseentday horizon for new
and to encourage more resilient policy-making. UK horizon scanning and foresight are aimed explicitly at developing resillien policies that are adaptive to changing and uncerrtai futures.
Horizon scanning can therefore be seen as an adapttiv foresight (Eriksson and Weber, 2006) instrumeen that deliberately challenge policy-makers to look at the uncertainties and the unexpected and deveelo resilient policies towards sustainability.
Governmment use horizon scanning to: Widen the scope for policy -and decision-makers (by supplying systematically gathered and analyyse data on opportunities,
Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,
which adapted the issue descriptions to the Danish situation after Horizon scanning can be seen as an adaptive foresight instrument that deliberately challenges policy-makers to look at uncertainties
and Public policy February 2010 12 discussions with representatives from different ministrries The primary data for The netherlands scan were collected by the COS Horizon scanning team
Review phase Delivery phase Research phase OST Horizon scanning Centre Figure 1. Schematic design of UK horizon scan Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February
Horizon scanning seeks to identify what in The netherlands scan are described as potential PTOS and in the UK horizon scan are called issues.
Positioning of the scans The UK HSC was established in 2005 with a central function to use horizon scanning
support horizon scanning carried out by others insiid government; and identify the implications of Emerging s&t and enable others to act on them.
The horizon scanning task will be maintained and has been provisionally realloccate to the newly formed Knowledge Directorate of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science.
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.
The disappearance of the COS and reallocattio of the horizon scanning task creates a new situation that should lead to a more effective positioonin of the horizon scanning task.
which is supported strongly by the so-called FAN club that the HSC established to suppoor horizon scanning activities in government and elsewhere.
Several departments are now initiating their own horizon scanning projects. Joint database A joint database has been established containing 430 issues
and EC-level organisations that have performed horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the past or are planning to carry out horizon scanning (or similar activities) in the future.
The function of this network will be the exchange of experience and know-how, but also to combine
Overall we conclude that horizon scanning as perforrme in the three cooperating countries is a powerffu tool
(and non-European countries that regulaarl perform horizon scanning, and countries and organisations that contribute relevant data
but could also serve as a platform for exchanging experiennc and addressing methodological questions relevaan to horizon scanning such as the role of values (prevention of biases),
the identification and significaanc of faint or weak signals and wild cards, how to deal with complexity, the learning function of horizon scanning, stakeholder participation and how to increeas impact.
Technology and Innovatiio project that focuses on the involvement of civiliaan through horizon scanning driven public debate (CIVISTI),
It is recommended that horizon scanning is embedded and closely relaate to strategic functions and other forwardloookin functions in
the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovatiio (DASTI), the UK Horizon scanning Centre, the Commisssi van Overleg Sectorraden voor Onderzoek en Ontwikkeling (COS), the Malta Council
which was limited more for the Danish scan due to the fact that the Danish scan had limited a purpose. 4. Australia and New zealand Horizon scanning Network (health technology scan).
Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Report on futures tool, horizon scanning. Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
UK government, 2006, Horizon scanning and Futures Team, Sciennc Economics and Statistics DG, 2006. Looking back at looking forwards, Next steps for Horizon scanning and Futurres DEFRA 2006.
Available from<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk/Viewdocument image. aspx? Doc id=192>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
An Environment Research Funders'Forum report-horizon scanning study. Available from<http://www. erff. org. uk/publications/reports/20071212-horizonscanning-report. aspx>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Horizon scanning in Government. Zurich: ETH Centre for Security Studies. Available from<http://www. isn. ethz. ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?
The growing use of horizon scanning and collection and analysis of weak signals and wild cards has been facilitated by the rapid expansion of social networking capacities and online tools,
the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels,
with a particular focus on the application of horizon scanning. Amanatidou, Butter, Carabias, Ko nno la, Leis, Saritas, Schaper-Rinkel and van Rij argue that FTA METHODS can provide important enabling early warning signal detecctio
and limitations of a number of different horizon scanning approaches applied in a European commission funded Framework programme project (SESTI).
and Vilkkumaa discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning in order to shape systemic policies to address major challennges Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies,
various forms of horizon scanning offer tested approaches for identifying signals that indicate emerging issues. But mere listing of such signals does not necessarily support the formulation of policy issues or, more broadly, the develoopmen of coherent policy themes
In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve three key questions: how to facilitaat the recognition of signals and the elaboration of correspoondin policy issues;
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
Recent progress in the use of horizon scanning and weak signal analysis indicate there is very considerable potential for establishing fast and effective‘sense-making'mechanissm
. 2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 21.
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: 222 31. Loveridge, D. and Street, P. 2005)‘ Inclusive foresight',Foresight, 7: 31 47.
much existing information is already readily available from various horizon scanning activities going on around the world (e g. the UK Government's Sigma Scan) 2
horizon scanning and generation of innovation ideas among a wide and diverse set of stakeholders) can alleviate the risk of co-optation,
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: 222 31. Lundvall, B.-A°.,ed.,(1992) National systems of Innovation:
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.
there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
horizon scanning; policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
journals. permissions@oup. com A relevant tool for this purpose is defined horizon scanning as:..the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signal. Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
Horizon scanning is seen generally as an instrument with two main functions: the alerting and the creative functions.
The alerting function helps policy-makers to anticipate emerging issues better and earlier, while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.
In this way horizon scanning contributes to opening up new policy options or testing developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown,
This is the case for example with the horizon scanning services in the UK. 1 Horizon scanning also fulfils similar functions with scenario building.
horizon scanning activities have been applied at the national level to inform national foresight exercises, thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007).
environmental and political developmennts National horizon scanning activities have been carried out as in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark (Van Rij 2010a).
A special national horizon scanning activity is taking place in Singapore under the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning programme
methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor
The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
and implement horizon scanning processes effectively in order to integrate the diverse information needs of policy-makers about emerging issues.
Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions on how horizon scanning can be used to improve policy formulation and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
which is extended at the margins of the known environment and possibly beyond it (Loveridge 2009.
Horizon scanning aims to identify emerging issues and events which may present themselves as threats or opportunities for society and policy.
2012) regard horizon scanning as:..a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
Horizon scanning typically builds on concepts such as weak or early warning signals within the framework of political discourse and decision-making.
while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.
but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.
Comparing the SESTI experience with experiences from other horizon scanning processes, it seems that surveys are especially useful
and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
which may be required throughout all the scanning phases. 5. Conclusion Horizon scanning is seen generally as an instrument with two main functions:
Horizon scanning alerts policy-makers to anticipaat better and earlier emerging issues that will need probably their attention.
and issue-centred horizon scanning processes to produce alerts but also to Table 4. Description of three combined approaches (a) Semi-automated,
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
These types of debates can also be evoked by the horizon scanning process itself. Therefore horizon scanning is not merely about searching for signals and their factual evidence.
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
or of single experts is a valuable necessity, especially for the alerting function of horizon scanning.
At the same time, horizon scanning has to be accepted as an additional source of evidence for policy-making. Notwithstanding the above, experience has shown also that the effective selection
This also means that the policy system should be made aware of the benefits of taking horizon scanning results into account early enough and more seriously.
As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting. In general, model-based forward-looking results are taken into account far more seriously by policy-makers than horizon scanning data
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
The special nature of horizon scanning activities points to the importance of continuity to increase the relevance, validity and timeliness of the information.
As Choo (2001) points out, horizon scanning is a long-term investment that needs a critical mass of talent and resources.
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: XXX XXX, in this special issue.
Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
2010b)‘ Horizon scanning: Monitoring plausible and desirable futures'.'In: In‘t Veld, R. J. ed.)Knowledge Democracy:
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 221
Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning Totti Ko nno la 1,,
*Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3, Vicente Carabias4 and Eeva Vilkkumaa2 1impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c, 28016 Madrid, Spain 2aalto
totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise‘Facing the future:
This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues;
horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues.
horizon scanning; foresight; grand challenges; policy coordination; futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
At present, however, various forms of horizon scanning are gaining in popularity, as evidenced by the considerable interest that practitioners
While the intellectual origins of‘horizon scanning'can be traced to the celebrated work by Ansoff (1975) on the recognition of weak signals,
For example, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defined horizon scanning in 2002 as:..the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,
horizon scanning‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. 1 At present, various forms of horizon scanning are quite widespread (Amanatidou et al. 2012),
even to the point where it is not easy to take stock of those activities that do not readily fit under any single label.
Despite this variabillity horizon scanning offers tested approaches for collecctin signals which:.Articulate credible observations about current or imminent changes (either sudden, gradual,
Arguably, the growing interest in horizon scanning and further on the apparently greater empirical reliance of horizon scanning over scenario planning reflect the increasing complexity of modern societies which are shaped continuuall by so many uncertainties especially in the social and political spheres.
horizon scanning can serve as a systemmati approach to support the early identification and collective exploration of emerging issues.
Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
horizon scanning may offer major benefits especially when there are long delays in policy implementation and when the issues evolve through an incipient phase that is initially only observed by some individuals.
we elucidate these processes in the light of the horizon scanning exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges,
and the attainment of systemic policy objectives. 2. Sense-making in horizon scanning Because the objective of horizon scanning is to create knowledge on the emergence of issues that,
Against this backdrop, we regard horizon scanning as: a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
Horizon scanning Centres in the UK and Singapore; the National Intelligence Council in the USA; and the OECD Futures Programme.
Horizon scanning. 223 potentially significant and thus worth scanning. Here, there may be bias to align scanning exercises along well-established fields
But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.
Here, we argue that horizon scanning should seek to engage diverse stakeholders (Ko nno la et al. 2007.
This suggests that horizon scanning can benefit from methods that provide explicit support for the synthesis of relevant combinations (e g. by using multi-criteria models in the assessment of issues
Thus, horizon scanning can facilitate crosscutting coordination and, by doing so, foster the development of joint policy measures without necessitating potentially time-consuming
In this context, JRC-IPTS and BEPA started collaboratiiv horizon scanning efforts which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach. BEPA emphasized that policy relevance was a crucial criterion in the selection of these reports.
Horizon scanning. 227 the individual crosscutting challenges proposed by workshop participants into five categories and then, on the second day of the workshop,
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
Indeed, in comparison with more structured approaches such as Delphi studies a distinctive and defining feature of horizon scanning is that there are no strong a priori constraints on
horizon scanning is inherently a bottom-up process where results from individual sense-making activities are followed by collective processes where the scanners take stock of
In this way, horizon scanning activities can, at best, contribute to the design of systemic policies which far from being monolithic and inflexible contribuut to the attainment of systemic policy objectives by supporrtin the timely recognition of the interconnectedness of actions.
The engagement of stakeholders into collective sensemakkin in horizon scanning may follow different organizattiona models. Specifically
Horizon scanning. 229 exercise can also be seen as an example of building an international anticipatory system,
2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 22.
Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12. SEC (2010) 1161 Final.
Horizon scanning. 231
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011