The growing use of horizon scanning and collection and analysis of weak signals and wild cards has been facilitated by the rapid expansion of social networking capacities and online tools,
the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels,
with a particular focus on the application of horizon scanning. Amanatidou, Butter, Carabias, Ko nno la, Leis, Saritas, Schaper-Rinkel and van Rij argue that FTA METHODS can provide important enabling early warning signal detecctio
and limitations of a number of different horizon scanning approaches applied in a European commission funded Framework programme project (SESTI).
and Vilkkumaa discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning in order to shape systemic policies to address major challennges Due to the increasing complexity of modern societies,
various forms of horizon scanning offer tested approaches for identifying signals that indicate emerging issues. But mere listing of such signals does not necessarily support the formulation of policy issues or, more broadly, the develoopmen of coherent policy themes
In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve three key questions: how to facilitaat the recognition of signals and the elaboration of correspoondin policy issues;
Time for the EU to meet global challenges'(Boden et al. 2010) to illustrate how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues, the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters,
Recent progress in the use of horizon scanning and weak signal analysis indicate there is very considerable potential for establishing fast and effective‘sense-making'mechanissm
A brief scanning of their deliverables shows that the use of FTA varied from one project to another.
because they underlie key scoping decisions on scanning emerging issues and thus shape both implicit and explicit expectations that influence scanners and their behaviour.
. 2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 21.
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: 222 31. Loveridge, D. and Street, P. 2005)‘ Inclusive foresight',Foresight, 7: 31 47.
much existing information is already readily available from various horizon scanning activities going on around the world (e g. the UK Government's Sigma Scan) 2
horizon scanning and generation of innovation ideas among a wide and diverse set of stakeholders) can alleviate the risk of co-optation,
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: 222 31. Lundvall, B.-A°.,ed.,(1992) National systems of Innovation:
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.
This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues.
there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
horizon scanning; policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
journals. permissions@oup. com A relevant tool for this purpose is defined horizon scanning as:..the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems, trends and weak signal. Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
Horizon scanning is seen generally as an instrument with two main functions: the alerting and the creative functions.
The alerting function helps policy-makers to anticipate emerging issues better and earlier, while the creative function enables the reassembly of issues or the creation of new emerging issues on the basis of the analysis and integratiio of scan data.
In this way horizon scanning contributes to opening up new policy options or testing developed policies in relation to their resilience to unknown,
This is the case for example with the horizon scanning services in the UK. 1 Horizon scanning also fulfils similar functions with scenario building.
horizon scanning activities have been applied at the national level to inform national foresight exercises, thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007).
environmental and political developmennts National horizon scanning activities have been carried out as in the UK, The netherlands and Denmark (Van Rij 2010a).
A special national horizon scanning activity is taking place in Singapore under the Risk assessment and Horizon scanning programme
methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor
whereby the output of scanning can be incorporated effectively into vision building and strategic planning. The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively
in order to integrate the diverse information needs of policy-makers about emerging issues. This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces the main definitions,
as well as the different scanning approaches and scanning tools that were applied in the SESTI project. Section 3 provides a comparative analysis of the two scanning approaches
and the associated tools that were used in SESTI. Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.
Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions on how horizon scanning can be used to improve policy formulation and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
which is extended at the margins of the known environment and possibly beyond it (Loveridge 2009.
Horizon scanning aims to identify emerging issues and events which may present themselves as threats or opportunities for society and policy.
2012) regard horizon scanning as:..a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
Horizon scanning typically builds on concepts such as weak or early warning signals within the framework of political discourse and decision-making.
and issue-centred scanning There are different approaches which underpin the scanning process. One way of approaching scanning is to differentiate between exploratory
and issue-centred scanning. The exploratory scanning approach concentrates on assembling potential emerging issues from a wide variety of data from different signal sources
while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.
In the first approach emerging issues are identified and described by processing informatiio from different sources,
while in the issue-centred approach the (preliminary) descriptions of issues are used as a core to identify potential additional signals that could
either confirm or deny the real emergence of the issue. 2. 2. 1 Exploratory scanning.
In exploratory or curiositydriive scanning the analyst, with no specific framework or any potential emerging issues in mind
A refined method of exploratory scanning is offered by applying a more bottom-up approach where the analyst examines the observations and topics that different (independent) scanning communities focus upon,
The aim of the exploratory scanning approach is to identify a long list of signals that are precursors for emerging issues only demarcated by the policy domain selected (e g. healthcare or energy.
The exploratory scanning approach includes various steps:.Setting a heuristic search profile: Based on the domain of the audience a search profile should be set in order to obtain a more focused search.
Broad scanning for signals: The preliminary identificatiio of signals can use various sources, like wikis, Twitter,
but also Conference table 1. Summary of concepts applied in horizon scanning Concept Description Weak signals Citing from Igor Ansoff,
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
Text-mining can also be used to identify clusters. 2. 2. 2 Issue-centred scanning. Whereas the above, bottom-up approach can be considered as hypothesisgenerrating the issue-centred approach can be seen rather as evaluating a hypothesis (the hypothesis of proposed emerging issues.
Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals and to monitor
These elements give clues for further scanning of signals that may support or deny the possibility that the story will occur (the signals are known as secondary signals).
If the seconddar signals have manifested themselves in the period before the scanning was done, then they can be added to the description of the issues.
It should also be clear that issue-centred scanning does not predict issues. Rather it provides tools to alert for potential impact-rich issues that need policy attention.
the two approaches should be seen as complementary (see Fig. 1). Exploratory scanning mainly refers to the first scanning phase (identification of weak signals)
while issue-centred scanning spans throughout phases 1 and 2 of the SESTI scanning process (cf.
and scanning tools Both of the above approaches used the internet as their main source of information.
validate and discuss the scanning results. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:
4. web-based search engines as Google, Google news Timeline, 5 Google Insight6 and Bing7. expert review and survey. visits to conferences
and seminars. a special SESTI wiki to evoke contributions to the scanning process. active use of blogging and micro-blogging (Twitter) 8. text-mining. expert/stakeholder workshops Based on the experience of SESTI,
the scanning tools can be grouped with regards to the level of participation, and the means of processing information.
the main phases of the SESTI scanning process should first be clarified. 3. 1 SESTI scanning process Three main phases can be distinguished,
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.
Thus, the last phase of the scanning process should be devoted to this particular task. In the SESTI project this task was complemented by workshops
in order to draw conclusions about the implications for policy. 3. 2 Comparative analysis of methods and tools applied during the SESTI project The focused expert review could be used for the entire scanning process.
The results of the scanning can also be a starting point for taking into account the areas of unknown unknowns by spotting gaps in the scan picture
The reluctance of the community to contribute made it difficult to use this tool in any of the scanning phases.
Comparing the SESTI experience with experiences from other horizon scanning processes, it seems that surveys are especially useful
when the fields are specified and the scanning starts from well-defined fields such as energy, conservation or science and policy (cf.
A first assessment of the tools used in the scanning process in the SESTI project is given in Table 2. 3. 3 Policy workshops
These particularly helped the third phase of the scanning process (analysing and interpreting the relevant implicatiion of emerging issues for policy-making).
Linkages to issues that were already on the radar of policy-makers were considered helpful for improovin the relevance and usefulness of the scanning outcomes.
used in scanning process (rate of appropriateness and usefulness: low, medium, high) Phase 1: Identification of weak signals Phase 2:
and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.
some methods are better for the initial phases of the scanning process, while others fit better into the analysis phase (cf.
and approaches (see Table 3). A second challenge is that the two different approaches (exploratory scanning
and issue-centred scanning) do not cover the whole scanning cycle but complement each other (cf.
they are not directly comparabble They can be considered to be two departure points for the scanning activity.
For example, the exploratory scanning approach represented by tools such as text-mining, Twitter or wiki scanning hardly goes beyond the second phase,
On the other hand, in the focused expert review, the main scanning process of the issue-centred scanning, spans through all the different phases of the scanning cycle
or combination of methods that cover all the differren phases of the scanning activity. Following the framework of tools
and methods presented in Fig. 2 certain combinations of methods can be created to provide a complete evaluation along the scanning process.
Twitter/wiki scanning which is complemented by processsin of weak signals..Focused expert review which is complemented by text-mining..
The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach, while the last two refer mainly to the issue-centred approach.
and means to cover the needs of the different scanning phases as the same method may have advantages with respect to one criterion
and scanning phase but disadvantages for another. Additionally, the SESTI experience has shown the crucial value of networks and human expertise.
Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at
and recommendations are of crucial importance for the last stages of the scanning process. At the same time, semi-automated methods are appreciated, especially those drawing on large expert communities,
as they enable systematic scanning and retrieval of‘inside'information in the first scanning phases as well as in verifyyin the results.
which may be required throughout all the scanning phases. 5. Conclusion Horizon scanning is seen generally as an instrument with two main functions:
Horizon scanning alerts policy-makers to anticipaat better and earlier emerging issues that will need probably their attention.
In the SESTI project this was done by internet scanning with the use of the publicly available search engines such as Google and Bing.
and issue-centred horizon scanning processes to produce alerts but also to Table 4. Description of three combined approaches (a) Semi-automated,
Any other info piece for second-round scanning (observation time depends on scanner) Experts'knowledge; literature;
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information As reported in survey responses and in literature and synthesised by reviewers.
In focused expert review secondary scanning can reveal relevant information. Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics
In focused expert review narratiive in the primary scanning usually contain already policy implications or even policy advice of author.
While secondary scanning usually gives ideas on elaboration of proposed policies or of critics As reported in survey responses and in literature.
Several lessons can be drawn from this experience that should be kept in mind by scanning practitioners and policy-makers alike.
Different approaches to scanning identifying and assessing potential emerging issues exist. It is clear that issues are dynamic,
These types of debates can also be evoked by the horizon scanning process itself. Therefore horizon scanning is not merely about searching for signals and their factual evidence.
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
as well as to maintain close interaction between the clients of the analysis (e g. decision/policy-makers) and those undertaking the scanning task.
or of single experts is a valuable necessity, especially for the alerting function of horizon scanning.
Given also the limitations of the scanning methods as outlined above, the specific nature of the field examined,
scanning results may only be accepted with reluctance in evidence-based policy-making environments. In this regard, obtaining relevant informattio alongside validating sources,
At the same time, horizon scanning has to be accepted as an additional source of evidence for policy-making. Notwithstanding the above, experience has shown also that the effective selection
This also means that the policy system should be made aware of the benefits of taking horizon scanning results into account early enough and more seriously.
As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting. In general, model-based forward-looking results are taken into account far more seriously by policy-makers than horizon scanning data
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
The special nature of horizon scanning activities points to the importance of continuity to increase the relevance, validity and timeliness of the information.
As Choo (2001) points out, horizon scanning is a long-term investment that needs a critical mass of talent and resources.
Choo, C. W. 2001)‘ Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning',Information Research, 7/1<http://choo. fis. utoronto. ca/IR/choo choo
Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning',Science and Public policy, 39: XXX XXX, in this special issue.
2008)‘ Calling on a million minds for community annotattio in Wikiproteins',Genome Biology, 9: 5. Morrison, J. L. 1992)‘ Environmental scanning'.
Pang, A s.-K. 2010)‘ Social scanning: Improving futures through Web 2. 0; or, finally a use for Twitter',Futures, 42: 1222 30.
Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
2010b)‘ Horizon scanning: Monitoring plausible and desirable futures'.'In: In‘t Veld, R. J. ed.)Knowledge Democracy:
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 221
Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning Totti Ko nno la 1,,
*Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3, Vicente Carabias4 and Eeva Vilkkumaa2 1impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c, 28016 Madrid, Spain 2aalto
totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com. In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise‘Facing the future:
This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues;
horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues.
horizon scanning; foresight; grand challenges; policy coordination; futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
At present, however, various forms of horizon scanning are gaining in popularity, as evidenced by the considerable interest that practitioners
While the intellectual origins of‘horizon scanning'can be traced to the celebrated work by Ansoff (1975) on the recognition of weak signals,
For example, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defined horizon scanning in 2002 as:..the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,
horizon scanning‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. 1 At present, various forms of horizon scanning are quite widespread (Amanatidou et al. 2012),
even to the point where it is not easy to take stock of those activities that do not readily fit under any single label.
Despite this variabillity horizon scanning offers tested approaches for collecctin signals which:.Articulate credible observations about current or imminent changes (either sudden, gradual,
Arguably, the growing interest in horizon scanning and further on the apparently greater empirical reliance of horizon scanning over scenario planning reflect the increasing complexity of modern societies which are shaped continuuall by so many uncertainties especially in the social and political spheres.
horizon scanning can serve as a systemmati approach to support the early identification and collective exploration of emerging issues.
Here, the need for horizon scanning is intensified effecttivel by the long lead times for bringing about desired policy impacts (cf. climate change mitigatioon) Taking this remark further,
horizon scanning may offer major benefits especially when there are long delays in policy implementation and when the issues evolve through an incipient phase that is initially only observed by some individuals.
we elucidate these processes in the light of the horizon scanning exercise‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges,
It should be noted that this exercise was limited not to the scanning of signals: rather, it sought to achieve greater visibility
and the attainment of systemic policy objectives. 2. Sense-making in horizon scanning Because the objective of horizon scanning is to create knowledge on the emergence of issues that,
Against this backdrop, we regard horizon scanning as: a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
such as trends, are explored. 2. 1 Scoping the scanning exercise Early on, the scoping of a scanning exercise necessitates fundamental methodological decisions that partly demarcaat
which signals are likely to appear relevant. Some exerccise have sought to scan across a truly comprehensive spectrum (Glenn et al. 2010;
Horizon scanning Centres in the UK and Singapore; the National Intelligence Council in the USA; and the OECD Futures Programme.
Horizon scanning. 223 potentially significant and thus worth scanning. Here, there may be bias to align scanning exercises along well-established fields
or to follow path-dependent institutioona structures (Ko nno la and Unruh 2007) that reflect, for instance, the mandate of the client or sponsor,
But even if the scope of scanning is left rather open, other design issues, such as available resouurce or the duration of the exercise, may impose comparrabl bounds. 2. 2 Sense-making:
Inseparable from scanning Defining‘what'specifically is to be scanned is just as imporrtan as demarcating the scope of the scanning activity.
Saritas and Smith (2011), for instance, consider trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities, and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned.
and anything that is related to substantial potential change'before he elaborates an alternative scanning framework that embodies concepts such as weak signals, drivers and trends.
Scanning systems may comprise quantitative methods such as bibliometrics, cybermetrics and patent analysis, which may also convey patterns of emerging issues.
Thus, it appears that whatever the methodological basis of scanning is, sense-making lies at the heart of providing well-founded support for policy-making. 2. 3 Stakeholders:
The consultation of recognized experts in scanning may lend credibility to the exercise and its results.
But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.
Here, we argue that horizon scanning should seek to engage diverse stakeholders (Ko nno la et al. 2007.
This suggests that horizon scanning can benefit from methods that provide explicit support for the synthesis of relevant combinations (e g. by using multi-criteria models in the assessment of issues
Thus, horizon scanning can facilitate crosscutting coordination and, by doing so, foster the development of joint policy measures without necessitating potentially time-consuming
In this context, JRC-IPTS and BEPA started collaboratiiv horizon scanning efforts which evolved gradually from initial exchanges of relevant foresight studies to more systemaatic comprehensive scanning and detailed analysis of reports,
with the aim of identifying future trends and disruptive events that could have major implications on EU policy-making by 2025 (cf.
Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach. BEPA emphasized that policy relevance was a crucial criterion in the selection of these reports.
Horizon scanning. 227 the individual crosscutting challenges proposed by workshop participants into five categories and then, on the second day of the workshop,
In its approach, the workshop evolved from a loosely structured discussion of issues resulting from the scanning of reports to a collective sense-making process that focused on how such issues could be brought together into crosscutting challenges
particularly when describing grand challenges that have to be addressed through European policy-making. 4. Implications for horizon scanning The recent proliferation of horizonscanning activities is linked partly to the popularity of the‘wisdom of the Table 2. Example of a crosscutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses
Indeed, in comparison with more structured approaches such as Delphi studies a distinctive and defining feature of horizon scanning is that there are no strong a priori constraints on
horizon scanning is inherently a bottom-up process where results from individual sense-making activities are followed by collective processes where the scanners take stock of
In this way, horizon scanning activities can, at best, contribute to the design of systemic policies which far from being monolithic and inflexible contribuut to the attainment of systemic policy objectives by supporrtin the timely recognition of the interconnectedness of actions.
Based on their experiences from the exercise on‘Scanning for emerging science and technology issues',Amanatidou et al.
The engagement of stakeholders into collective sensemakkin in horizon scanning may follow different organizattiona models. Specifically
For example, while the institutionalization of scanning activities serves to establish close links with decision-makers and makes it possible to build up capabilities on continuous basis,
the contracted external services and organized international networks can still allow for a more rapid and flexible mode of carrying out extensive scanning activities.
Horizon scanning. 229 exercise can also be seen as an example of building an international anticipatory system,
Overall, it appears the methodological approach in this exercise which had well-defined phases for the systematic‘bottom-up'scanning of issues
2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 22.
Blackburn, S.,Cudd, P. and Hawley, M. 2010)‘ A horizon scanning system for identifying new telehealth innovations',Global Telemedicine and ehealth Updates:
Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12. SEC (2010) 1161 Final.
Horizon scanning. 231
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