| Driver (292) |  |
| Driver of strategy (6) | |
| Drivers of change (72) | |
| Emerging driver (3) | |
| New driver (3) | |
| Driver (292) | |
| Driver of strategy (6) | |
| Drivers of change (72) | |
| Emerging driver (3) | |
| New driver (3) | |
The general consensus in the session was that FTA is a driver and an instrument for social change and as such will require high quality evaluation and at the same time within its own constructs,
or bad. 27 An external drivers'workshop is performed in a structured brainstorming format where participants first get to upload their ideas on drivers.
In the case of external drivers it is often useful to have participants distinguish between drivers that are important and stable (say,
which may deepen insight on the drivers and modify the priorities, the highest priority factors and particularly those of the uncertain type,
to devise little storylines that combine in interesting ways prioritised uncertain drivers. Scenario skeletons can then be derived by clustering such storylines based on consistency the so-called inductive approach.
The deductive alternative is to analyse systematically the scenario space spanned by the most prioritised uncertain drivers.
starting to specify each scenario in terms of key drivers and other descriptors of relevance to the focal issue.
In the DC-3 case engineers were singled out as the drivers of the development. In other situations, it may be a continuing product-use combination (cf. the recent trajectory of mobile telephony),
The degree of complexity of an integrated lab-on-a-chip platform would mean a clear application driver for the SME-consortium or the Fig. 4. 1) MNC (dark grey) in-house;(
'drivers and factors shaping modern societies. 7 See for example 2100 543 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 versions
and emerging drivers of change Detect and analyse weak signals to‘foresee'changes in the future Produce future oriented material for the system to use AP:
Trends and drivers for changes; Multilevel governance 1. Introduction The first universities emerged as responses to the need to harness the expanding intellectual forces of the era to the increasingly demanding knowledge requirements of the surrounding society
followed by an account of key trends and the drivers for changes (Section 3). Then,
and drivers for change, affecting the education activities at universities are discussed, e g. in 2, 3, 79,21, 28 300,36,
or create new drivers for change by introducing far-reaching and resolute goals for research. A prime example of a potential major impact of public policies is the current initiative in several countries to‘strongly encourage'universities to patent their research results,
Finally, the most important trends and drivers are addressed at the level of universities. 25 These futures (visions
and drivers identified in Sections 3, several future sates of universities can be elaborated, depending on the extent to
(i e. somewhat neglecting societal issues) 34 The likely impacts of further drivers, not directly related to research activities of universities, are discussed in 21.577 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 touch with reality.
a number of drivers are global (or EUWIIDE in their character, while decision-making competences are usually with the national or regional authorities.
Following a widely shared definition, foresight aims at improving future-oriented decision making through the early detection and assessment of emerging trends and drivers of change 18.
market liberalization as a driver for radical change? Res. Pol. 35 (5)( 2006) 609 625.12 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:
In the exploration stage, main issues, trends and drivers as well as key stakeholders'frames are explored. Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues,
trends and drivers influence one another, and synthesising knowledge. Anticipation considers previous analysis and aims at defining possible and/or desired futures.
as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.
new drivers like lifestyles or developments in society change the time and space patterns of living and working.
, Future-oriented technology analysis as a Driver of strategy and Policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management, vol. 20,2008, pp. 78 83,1. 21 K. Cuhls, Changes in conducting foresight in Japan, in:
Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;
Drug delivery becomes a key driver in nanotechnology. Rapid developments in nano means the consequent burgeoning number of delivery methods leads to increasingly bewildering regulatory protocols.
The driver is bwhen do need you to have what information? Q Note that this seriously alters relationships and expectations between manager users and technology analysts.
''3. On its own perhaps not but technology is rarely absent among drivers; as Linstone argued in the context of considering long waves,
drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. The survey responses provide a rich and diverse array of issues that could be dissected further
. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 267 269.11 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers
so it is not surprising to find that the more direct corporate applications are concerned largely with understanding the drivers of future markets.
and codify information that allow a better understanding of the future drivers and challenges, develop visions,
In both fields, in particular the development of alternative scenarios help addressing uncertainties and diverse interconnections between many drivers.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;
A common starting point in scenario workshops is to examine‘‘drivers and shapers''factors that could be critical to influencing the course of events,
Brainstorming or other ways of generating these‘‘drivers and shapers''may be seen as an act of‘‘externalisation,
and classifying drivers and shapers, there are liable to be moments of‘‘internalisation''as participants become more familiar with working with the background material and fitting it into their own conceptual frameworks and constellations of interests and also, perhaps,
The analysis of drivers and shapers may be conducted in plenary (in smaller workshops, in particular) but will often be approached by asking subgroups to elaborate lists of those falling into specific STEEPV categories
which means debating the relationships between drivers and topics. Clusters are effectively boundary objects that participants from different epistemic communities
with the most important drivers being earmarked (and perhaps also considered in terms of the main uncertainties associated with them) they are externalised
These draw upon the analysis of drivers and shapers, and the implicit model of the system under consideration;
scenarios may be differentiated in terms of key uncertain drivers, broad archetypes about system performance, ‘‘what if''questions, etc.
One common task involves pinpointing the major drivers at play and how they interact to produce the scenario.
10 When it comes to drivers and shapers of any KM process, it is inescapable that new IT,
and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.
The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals Ozcan Saritas a,,*Jack E. Smith b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK b Federal Foresight & Innovation strategy, Defence
drivers of change and prospective discontinuities that might be expected within 5 10 or 15 years. The rationale for this concern tended to be expressed in these terms:‘‘
Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,
The second section of the paper first clarifies the definitions of the concepts used including trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks
Finally, Section 4 draws the overall conclusions and rounds off the paper. 2. Definitions of terminology Trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities,
Proliferation of nation states and groupings of peoples seeking self determination status. 2. 2. Drivers of change The second key definition concerns those forces,
Driver of change examples Climate policies and resource practices; Major S&t developments and their societal impacts;
often in response to other drivers or trend impacts that finally become measurable in price terms, such as carbon credits, taxes and footprint accounting;
innovations and business-institutional strategies 6. A critical concept associated with being a driver is the level of uncertainty.
Drivers have real leverage on one's future flexibility and outcomes i e. if a driver goes one way
or the opposite way the real divergence occurs and change patterns evolve differently. It has been said (by some practiced Foresight facilitators) that drivers are those critical choices,
forks in the road and deep uncertainties that keep executives awake at night. In this context, the definition for drivers of change was decided to focus on things that are accessible
and directly impacting one's influence environment. Thus, drivers of change are those factors, forces or events developments
which may be amenable to changes according to one's strategic choices, investments, R&d activities or foresight knowledge and strategies.
when for purposes of scenario planning there is an attempt to define the key drivers or those having both great uncertainty and potentially high impact.
These are structured then into a matrix of 4 cells (2 drivers with high and low situations for each)
or 8 cells (3 drivers) to create diverging scenario parameters, while trends are used to ask how each different scenario plays out against each trend
and the other (less critical but still relevant) change drivers. 2. 3. Wild cards or shocks Because most people have experienced surprise situations
or future trends, drivers or discontinuities. Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;
2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,
Then, the in the second part, the respondents were asked to identify a list of trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, weak signals and discontinuities.
rating of the trends, drivers, discontinuities as low, medium or high; 2. Likelihood: rating of the trends, drivers, discontinuities as low, medium or high;
3. Estimated time horizon: 2008 2015; 2016 2025; beyond 2025.3.1.2. Data set Total surveys submitted:
i e. trends, drivers, shocks, discontinuities and weak signals=75 cells of content (Table 1; Qualitative review of Foresight (content) insights and patterns;
Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc. Table 1 STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.
drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities and weak signals 3. 2. 2. 1. Trends. The trends obtained from the survey were mapped on the STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.
STEEP format enabled three subcategories for each-for a total of 18 trend and driver categories:
who expect low level of controversy. 3. 2. 3. Drivers of change The main orientations of the drivers are represented with the following radar diagram.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 302 Fig. 7 shows the frequency distribution of drivers of change and the most widely cited ones.
Table 3 presents some of the critical drivers of change suggested by the respondents. In contrast to the trends, the drivers are grounded more in current areas of expected leverage such as society-cultural change factors,
including R&d and energy choices we may be able to affect through our society or nation.
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
It is probably fair to observe that the drivers lists indicate more optimism and less fatalism than the trends lists,
and drivers were defined and differentiated. 3. 2. 3. 1. Joint assessment of Foresight experience and drivers of change.
A balanced distribution is observed among the respondents with 1 3, 5 10 and over 15 years experience.
Almost all the survey respondents considered that the drivers will have medium to high impact on the STEEP systems with the large majority of the experienced respondents (73%)considered high impact.
a large number of respondents considered the likelihood of occurrence high for the drivers identified, except the respondents with 10 15 years experience,
who considered that about one third of drivers have low probability of occurrence. Time horizon.
All respondents from less than 1 year experience to more than 15 years considered that the majority of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.3.2.3.2.
Joint assessment of country of residence and drivers of change. Approximately 60%of the drivers were assessed by the EU-27 respondents.
Again, a balanced distribution was observed between the EU-candidate countries and Australasian countries. TD$FIG Fig. 6. Orientations of drivers of change.
TD$FIG Fig. 7. Frequency distribution of top 10 drivers. O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment.
There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact
and the remaining 35%will have medium impact on the STEEP systems. The figures were 75%high and 25%for medium for the Australasian respondents.
The respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested similar assessments for the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.
About half of the drivers identified have high likelihood of occurrence with the rest being medium likelihood of occurrence.
The majority of respondents from the EU member and associate countries and North america considered that around half of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.
A considerable percentage of respondents from Australasia suggested that the drivers will emerge in the short run,
whereas the majority of the respondents from the EU Candidate countries assessed the time horizon for the occurrence of drivers after 2025.3.2.3.3.
Joint assessment of Foresight affiliation and drivers. Respondents from Academia and Government took the lead in drivers assessment with 32%and 25%respectively.
More balanced distribution was observed among Business respondents and Students. Impact assessment. Similar to the patterns observed regarding trends
The majority of respondents (around 68%)consider that the drivers will have high impact on the STEEP systems,
The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.
and other Table 3 Examples of drivers. Examples of critical drivers by category A b c Society & Culture 46 Increased citizen participation with the help of collaborative Web tools International mobility of educated workforce improves cultural
competences Ensuring equity in the development of new technologies Self-proficiency and hoarding alters social patterns Decline of motivation in the youth cohort of industrialised and aging societies Ethics in capitalism under scrutiny Growing tribalism around national,
The majority of the all respondents (around 50%)consider that the drivers will emerge from 2016 to 2025.
None of the student respondents expect that the drivers will occur after 2025.3.2.4. Wild cards/shocks The radar diagram,
Many shocks for some were treated as drivers or trends by others i e. displaying quite a wide range of attitudes and beliefs,
Some of the more interesting prospective wild cards()TD$FIG Fig. 8. Orientations of drivers of wild cards/shocks.
the strong alignment of these factors with those already cited as drivers and shocks (or possibly showing a respondent fatigue pattern) suggests that it may be important to analyse the patterns of individual responses to see how they differentiate among the key factors and whether any of the sorting base descriptions (i e. age, affiliation,
The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.
Strong disagreements were observed regarding the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified. The majority of the respondents from the US (54%)considered low likelihood of occurrence for discontinuities.
For the most part, the drivers in particular suggest an adequate number of critical uncertainties and polarities so that scenarios development appears to be both possible and desirable;
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.
The location and availability of taxies in a city cannot be explained by breaking the system down into its individual parts drivers, cars, customers, fares, other taxies etc.
and can be thought of as trying to get the best''outcome for itself (best fare for the driver, lowest fare or fastest ride for the customer).
which can be very simple (for example for a taxi driver they may be simply‘‘1. Stop for any customer,
''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.
or a policy to ensure clean cabs may simply result in cab drivers carrying around instant cleaning kits to use
a driver's entire day may be determined by the first turn, left or right, made out of the parking space.
where‘‘high''is good for an agent (a performance measure) an agent (taxi driver) aspires (has a strategy to) be on a high peak (making a big profit).
and the taxi driver may go out of business (selection). Therefore agents need to optimise their actions-to move
Taxi drivers, and their customers...Birds in a flock...of a variety of types Experienced, new, night, cheating Experienced, young, male, female, hungry...
Customer directs driver, pays driver. Driver drives customer to location Fly together to a certain location without crashing...
and with artefacts...Money, cars, phones Wind, wings Performance measures on the resulting events...Profit made, car undamaged Obstacle not hit,
Drivers who don't make enough profit go out of business Taxies that are damaged reduce drivers'profits Die
Try out strategies of other successful drivers jumping lights, cleaning taxi Try out strategies to get to best food-position in flock fly faster, slower...
changing the frequencies of the types within the system More successful drivers, fewer new drivers, more cleaner taxies More faster birds,
Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis, and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome,
as well as obstacles and drivers for realisation of each scenario. Along with improving the drafted scenarios, the goal of the second questionnaire was to fill in the gaps in the information required to forma solid general view of the future.
Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes: 1. Vertical axis. Represented the potential alternative responses by society in the future to the SD concept.
By extrapolating future trends and drivers, as well as by assessing alternative visions of the future, scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
SME are important drivers of some European industrial sectors and potential users of nanomaterials-based innovations.
Vecchiato distinguishes between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and explores their implications for strategic foresight. How do businesses develop successful continuity
uses become drivers of development, and socially and economically important innovations are invented often several times before they eventually start to have real impact.
Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.
Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry, and telecom operators start to write‘messaging'in their strategic plans and marketing material.
Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Havas, A. 2003.
We distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and find that they entail different requirements for the design and implementation of strategic foresight actions.
The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:
on the one hand, the selected firms operated in distinct industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
We then distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and shed light on their implications for foresight and strategic decision-making.
and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:
and refers to managers'inability to predict what the consequences of drivers of change will be on their organisations (e g. will customers switch from a traditional product fuel-based car to an innovative one hybrid car?).
the first regards environmental scanning and the detection of new events and drivers of change (Mendonça and Sapio 2009.
and implementation of appropriate techniques for anticipating the likely evolution of drivers of change (state uncertainty), their consequences on the organisation (effect uncertainty),
and technological drivers of change interact in novel and unforeseeable ways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 786 R. Vecchiato Prominent scholars supported the idea that the best way to handle an uncertain future is to ignore it
We aim at expanding our understanding of environmental uncertainty by exploring the different kinds of drivers of change
and Siemens operated in different industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
We grouped our sample firms into two clusters on the basis of the similarities in the kinds of drivers of change they faced and the foresight approaches they adopted:
and automotive) where the main drivers of change stemmed from the macro environment; on the other hand, Philips and Siemens operated in fastpaace industries (consumer electronics and information and communication technology (ICT))
the huge number of drivers of change in the PEEST landscapes, their strong mutual influences, and the slow overall pace of evolution have contributed to high complexity.
impact, and response options to macro drivers of change (i e. for coping with state, effect, and response uncertainty) was framed around scenarios.
and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006). Such system aims at encompassing and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues.
which progresssivel links macro drivers of change with specific management objectives and business issues. The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
All the firms of our sample were able to detect promptly the key drivers of change in their business.
the different nature of these drivers prompted them to design and implement very different foresight approaches.
this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
The key drivers of change for example, rise of new rivals from emerging countries and financial crisis had relevant consequeence on the evolution of the main components of the business (micro) environment and thus on the organisation.
these drivers of change did not affect either the identity of these components or the identity of the main activities of value chain of the chemical or the automotive business. 6 Over the last two decades,
However, what Daimler (and BASF) could not know in the face of the main drivers of change affecting its industries was how these drivers could evolve (e g. the length and strength of the financial crisis:
drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
Let us consider in particular such a driver of change as the convergence of multimedia technologies:
Building on the concept of boundary uncertainty, we distinguish between two main types of drivers of change.
The first is‘continuous'drivers of change that support and enhance the traditioona identity of the main components of the business micro environment, leading to incremental developments in the value chain, products, and services.
Continuous drivers of change typically affect mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies and customer needs are established well
which surrounds the industry. 7 The second category is‘discontinuous'drivers of change that bring about boundary uncertainty, by leading to completely new kinds of products, players,
Discontiinuou drivers of change are typically disruptive technologies (Christensen 1997) and new customer needs stemming from emerging or growing industries.
Discontinuous and continuous drivers of change entail very different and peculiar implications for strategic foresight and the tools and practices to be used for handling uncertainty.
Let us consider the case of continuous drivers of change and the chemical and automotive industries first.
First, these techniques allowed managers to think about the alternative evolutions of drivers of change (state uncertainty) in an organic and systematic way.
they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).
and our competitive position as these could be affected by alternative paths of evolution of drivers of change.
as they were facing discontinuous drivers of change, managers at Philips and Siemens had to address the crucial task of identifying the new boundaries of their business.
and response uncertainty (e g. partnership with Internet service providers) of‘discontinuous'drivers of change. Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation.
and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.
our findings suggest that decision-makers facing discontinuous drivers of change and boundary uncertainty are more likely to focus their predictive efforts on environmental scanning
Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
Discontinuous drivers of change typically stem from technology-driven industries which are at the initial stage of their life cycle.
Our arguments suggest that a crucial issue is the ability to distinguish continuous drivers of change from discontinuous ones.
and managerial cognition (Tripsas and Gavetti 2000) for investigating how to identify discontinuous drivers and how to renew managerial beliefs about the boundaries of their business.
6. It is worth stressing the difference between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change, on the one hand, and‘wild cards',on the other hand.
Continuous and discontinuous drivers might have either low or high probability and either high impact or low impact:
we do not mean that mature industries might not be affected by‘discontinuous'drivers of change: a new technological paradigm might be established in mature industries as well,
the automotive and chemical industries were affected not by such‘discontinuous'drivers of change and, more generally, that these drivers are quite infrequent in mature industries.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 795 Notes on contributor Riccardo Vecchiato is Assistant professor at the Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering of Politecnico di Milano
Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology analysis & Strategic management 20, no. 3: 267 9. Christensen, C. M. 1997.
Assessing the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change. Technological forecasting and Social Change 77, no. 9: 1527 39.
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011