Driver

Driver (292)
Driver of strategy (6)
Drivers of change (72)
Emerging driver (3)
New driver (3)

Synopsis: Driver: Driver:

The general consensus in the session was that FTA is a driver and an instrument for social change and as such will require high quality evaluation and at the same time within its own constructs,

or bad. 27 An external drivers'workshop is performed in a structured brainstorming format where participants first get to upload their ideas on drivers.

In the case of external drivers it is often useful to have participants distinguish between drivers that are important and stable (say,

which may deepen insight on the drivers and modify the priorities, the highest priority factors and particularly those of the uncertain type,

to devise little storylines that combine in interesting ways prioritised uncertain drivers. Scenario skeletons can then be derived by clustering such storylines based on consistency the so-called inductive approach.

The deductive alternative is to analyse systematically the scenario space spanned by the most prioritised uncertain drivers.

starting to specify each scenario in terms of key drivers and other descriptors of relevance to the focal issue.

In the DC-3 case engineers were singled out as the drivers of the development. In other situations, it may be a continuing product-use combination (cf. the recent trajectory of mobile telephony),

The degree of complexity of an integrated lab-on-a-chip platform would mean a clear application driver for the SME-consortium or the Fig. 4. 1) MNC (dark grey) in-house;(

'drivers and factors shaping modern societies. 7 See for example 2100 543 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 versions

Trends and drivers for changes; Multilevel governance 1. Introduction The first universities emerged as responses to the need to harness the expanding intellectual forces of the era to the increasingly demanding knowledge requirements of the surrounding society

followed by an account of key trends and the drivers for changes (Section 3). Then,

and drivers for change, affecting the education activities at universities are discussed, e g. in 2, 3, 79,21, 28 300,36,

Finally, the most important trends and drivers are addressed at the level of universities. 25 These futures (visions

and drivers identified in Sections 3, several future sates of universities can be elaborated, depending on the extent to

(i e. somewhat neglecting societal issues) 34 The likely impacts of further drivers, not directly related to research activities of universities, are discussed in 21.577 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 touch with reality.

a number of drivers are global (or EUWIIDE in their character, while decision-making competences are usually with the national or regional authorities.

market liberalization as a driver for radical change? Res. Pol. 35 (5)( 2006) 609 625.12 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:

In the exploration stage, main issues, trends and drivers as well as key stakeholders'frames are explored. Analysis stage means studying how the context and main issues,

trends and drivers influence one another, and synthesising knowledge. Anticipation considers previous analysis and aims at defining possible and/or desired futures.

as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.

Forthcoming efforts should include conducting empirical studies of the impacts of scenarios on organisational performance and their key drivers;

Drug delivery becomes a key driver in nanotechnology. Rapid developments in nano means the consequent burgeoning number of delivery methods leads to increasingly bewildering regulatory protocols.

The driver is bwhen do need you to have what information? Q Note that this seriously alters relationships and expectations between manager users and technology analysts.

''3. On its own perhaps not but technology is rarely absent among drivers; as Linstone argued in the context of considering long waves,

drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals. The survey responses provide a rich and diverse array of issues that could be dissected further

Normally the full appellation of foresight would be reserved for a process that went beyond this to involve a systematic consideration of socioeconomic and technical drivers

so it is not surprising to find that the more direct corporate applications are concerned largely with understanding the drivers of future markets.

and codify information that allow a better understanding of the future drivers and challenges, develop visions,

In both fields, in particular the development of alternative scenarios help addressing uncertainties and diverse interconnections between many drivers.

Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;

A common starting point in scenario workshops is to examine‘‘drivers and shapers''factors that could be critical to influencing the course of events,

Brainstorming or other ways of generating these‘‘drivers and shapers''may be seen as an act of‘‘externalisation,

and classifying drivers and shapers, there are liable to be moments of‘‘internalisation''as participants become more familiar with working with the background material and fitting it into their own conceptual frameworks and constellations of interests and also, perhaps,

The analysis of drivers and shapers may be conducted in plenary (in smaller workshops, in particular) but will often be approached by asking subgroups to elaborate lists of those falling into specific STEEPV categories

which means debating the relationships between drivers and topics. Clusters are effectively boundary objects that participants from different epistemic communities

with the most important drivers being earmarked (and perhaps also considered in terms of the main uncertainties associated with them) they are externalised

These draw upon the analysis of drivers and shapers, and the implicit model of the system under consideration;

scenarios may be differentiated in terms of key uncertain drivers, broad archetypes about system performance, ‘‘what if''questions, etc.

One common task involves pinpointing the major drivers at play and how they interact to produce the scenario.

10 When it comes to drivers and shapers of any KM process, it is inescapable that new IT,

and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.

The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals Ozcan Saritas a,,*Jack E. Smith b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK b Federal Foresight & Innovation strategy, Defence

Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,

Driver of change examples Climate policies and resource practices; Major S&t developments and their societal impacts;

often in response to other drivers or trend impacts that finally become measurable in price terms, such as carbon credits, taxes and footprint accounting;

innovations and business-institutional strategies 6. A critical concept associated with being a driver is the level of uncertainty.

Drivers have real leverage on one's future flexibility and outcomes i e. if a driver goes one way

or the opposite way the real divergence occurs and change patterns evolve differently. It has been said (by some practiced Foresight facilitators) that drivers are those critical choices,

forks in the road and deep uncertainties that keep executives awake at night. In this context, the definition for drivers of change was decided to focus on things that are accessible

when for purposes of scenario planning there is an attempt to define the key drivers or those having both great uncertainty and potentially high impact.

These are structured then into a matrix of 4 cells (2 drivers with high and low situations for each)

or 8 cells (3 drivers) to create diverging scenario parameters, while trends are used to ask how each different scenario plays out against each trend

and the other (less critical but still relevant) change drivers. 2. 3. Wild cards or shocks Because most people have experienced surprise situations

or future trends, drivers or discontinuities. Weak signal examples In the 1980s the first mention was made of global warming and climate change;

2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,

rating of the trends, drivers, discontinuities as low, medium or high; 2. Likelihood: rating of the trends, drivers, discontinuities as low, medium or high;

3. Estimated time horizon: 2008 2015; 2016 2025; beyond 2025.3.1.2. Data set Total surveys submitted:

i e. trends, drivers, shocks, discontinuities and weak signals=75 cells of content (Table 1; Qualitative review of Foresight (content) insights and patterns;

Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc. Table 1 STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.

STEEP format enabled three subcategories for each-for a total of 18 trend and driver categories:

who expect low level of controversy. 3. 2. 3. Drivers of change The main orientations of the drivers are represented with the following radar diagram.

In contrast to the trends, the drivers are grounded more in current areas of expected leverage such as society-cultural change factors,

Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.

It is probably fair to observe that the drivers lists indicate more optimism and less fatalism than the trends lists,

and drivers were defined and differentiated. 3. 2. 3. 1. Joint assessment of Foresight experience and drivers of change.

Almost all the survey respondents considered that the drivers will have medium to high impact on the STEEP systems with the large majority of the experienced respondents (73%)considered high impact.

a large number of respondents considered the likelihood of occurrence high for the drivers identified, except the respondents with 10 15 years experience,

who considered that about one third of drivers have low probability of occurrence. Time horizon.

All respondents from less than 1 year experience to more than 15 years considered that the majority of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.3.2.3.2.

Approximately 60%of the drivers were assessed by the EU-27 respondents. Again, a balanced distribution was observed between the EU-candidate countries and Australasian countries.

TD$FIG Fig. 7. Frequency distribution of top 10 drivers. O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment.

There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact

The respondents from North america and the EU countries suggested similar assessments for the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified.

About half of the drivers identified have high likelihood of occurrence with the rest being medium likelihood of occurrence.

The majority of respondents from the EU member and associate countries and North america considered that around half of the drivers will occur between 2016 and 2025.

A considerable percentage of respondents from Australasia suggested that the drivers will emerge in the short run,

whereas the majority of the respondents from the EU Candidate countries assessed the time horizon for the occurrence of drivers after 2025.3.2.3.3.

Joint assessment of Foresight affiliation and drivers. Respondents from Academia and Government took the lead in drivers assessment with 32%and 25%respectively.

More balanced distribution was observed among Business respondents and Students. Impact assessment. Similar to the patterns observed regarding trends

The majority of respondents (around 68%)consider that the drivers will have high impact on the STEEP systems,

The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.

and other Table 3 Examples of drivers. Examples of critical drivers by category A b c Society & Culture 46 Increased citizen participation with the help of collaborative Web tools International mobility of educated workforce improves cultural

competences Ensuring equity in the development of new technologies Self-proficiency and hoarding alters social patterns Decline of motivation in the youth cohort of industrialised and aging societies Ethics in capitalism under scrutiny Growing tribalism around national,

The majority of the all respondents (around 50%)consider that the drivers will emerge from 2016 to 2025.

None of the student respondents expect that the drivers will occur after 2025.3.2.4. Wild cards/shocks The radar diagram,

Many shocks for some were treated as drivers or trends by others i e. displaying quite a wide range of attitudes and beliefs,

Some of the more interesting prospective wild cards()TD$FIG Fig. 8. Orientations of drivers of wild cards/shocks.

the strong alignment of these factors with those already cited as drivers and shocks (or possibly showing a respondent fatigue pattern) suggests that it may be important to analyse the patterns of individual responses to see how they differentiate among the key factors and whether any of the sorting base descriptions (i e. age, affiliation,

The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.

Strong disagreements were observed regarding the likelihood of occurrence of the drivers identified. The majority of the respondents from the US (54%)considered low likelihood of occurrence for discontinuities.

For the most part, the drivers in particular suggest an adequate number of critical uncertainties and polarities so that scenarios development appears to be both possible and desirable;

1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(

The location and availability of taxies in a city cannot be explained by breaking the system down into its individual parts drivers, cars, customers, fares, other taxies etc.

and can be thought of as trying to get the best''outcome for itself (best fare for the driver, lowest fare or fastest ride for the customer).

which can be very simple (for example for a taxi driver they may be simply‘‘1. Stop for any customer,

''But the rules do not have to be fixed they can change according changes in the system too (for a driver a late night in a bad area may change the first rule to‘‘don't stop for anyone''.

or a policy to ensure clean cabs may simply result in cab drivers carrying around instant cleaning kits to use

a driver's entire day may be determined by the first turn, left or right, made out of the parking space.

where‘‘high''is good for an agent (a performance measure) an agent (taxi driver) aspires (has a strategy to) be on a high peak (making a big profit).

and the taxi driver may go out of business (selection). Therefore agents need to optimise their actions-to move

Taxi drivers, and their customers...Birds in a flock...of a variety of types Experienced, new, night, cheating Experienced, young, male, female, hungry...

Customer directs driver, pays driver. Driver drives customer to location Fly together to a certain location without crashing...

and with artefacts...Money, cars, phones Wind, wings Performance measures on the resulting events...Profit made, car undamaged Obstacle not hit,

Drivers who don't make enough profit go out of business Taxies that are damaged reduce drivers'profits Die

Try out strategies of other successful drivers jumping lights, cleaning taxi Try out strategies to get to best food-position in flock fly faster, slower...

changing the frequencies of the types within the system More successful drivers, fewer new drivers, more cleaner taxies More faster birds,

Similarly with techniques such as trend or driver analysis, and even scenario development, the onus is on a vision of the final outcome,

as well as obstacles and drivers for realisation of each scenario. Along with improving the drafted scenarios, the goal of the second questionnaire was to fill in the gaps in the information required to forma solid general view of the future.

Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes: 1. Vertical axis. Represented the potential alternative responses by society in the future to the SD concept.

By extrapolating future trends and drivers, as well as by assessing alternative visions of the future, scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.

SME are important drivers of some European industrial sectors and potential users of nanomaterials-based innovations.

uses become drivers of development, and socially and economically important innovations are invented often several times before they eventually start to have real impact.

Innovation and social learning in the context of the local downstream systems of meaning then become key drivers for the evolution of technology.

Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry, and telecom operators start to write‘messaging'in their strategic plans and marketing material.

and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:

the different nature of these drivers prompted them to design and implement very different foresight approaches.

However, what Daimler (and BASF) could not know in the face of the main drivers of change affecting its industries was how these drivers could evolve (e g. the length and strength of the financial crisis:

Let us consider in particular such a driver of change as the convergence of multimedia technologies:

they were able to directly address uncertainty regarding the evolution of the main components of the business and the impact on the organisation (effect uncertainty) and the best options for coping with these drivers (response uncertainty).

Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios

and managerial cognition (Tripsas and Gavetti 2000) for investigating how to identify discontinuous drivers and how to renew managerial beliefs about the boundaries of their business.

Continuous and discontinuous drivers might have either low or high probability and either high impact or low impact:

that these drivers are quite infrequent in mature industries. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 Strategic foresight 795 Notes on contributor Riccardo Vecchiato is Assistant professor at the Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering of Politecnico di Milano

or team-Measuring is coordinated-Customers as driver, focus on productivity and efficiency-Target is on cost reduction aiming competitive advantages-Seek social environmental improvement,

to enable business networks 807 Partnerships-Selection driver is price-Hierarchical structure-Functionally driven-Competition among partners-Selection driver is delivery-Matrix structure where partners interact

and proactive collaboration starts to be felt-Selection driver Is distributed quality coordination structure where structured collaboration starts to be felt-Stakeholders'engage

and trust are leveraged through dialogue-Communities of practice structure (focus on values)- Driver is trust, values and mission are defined jiontly-Symbiotic network structure-Education across the net Motivation-Environment of we/they competition between individuals-Behavioural structure with no sense of ownership-Structure of individual teams (no focus on collective performance;

and long term) and roadmap layers (such as drivers, markets, and enabling technologies). In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,

The second way is the identification of societal needs as drivers for the design of solutions.

This means that one tries to understand the systemic linkages between roadmap layers, such as linkages between societal drivers

and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel

BAU, business as usual. macro-scale societal phenomena (drivers and megatrends. It should be noted that the differences between the technology space

The first workshop was about drivers and technologies. The second workshop considered the future markeets business potential,

and potential future drivers for the services. Construction Machinery Roadmap: strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.

Drivers, barriers and systems failures. Energy Policy 33, no. 16: 2123 38. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 859 Guo, Y.,L. Huang,

and drivers as well as trends are known only partially. At the same time, diverging interests, opinions and agendas pose challenges to the new and still crystallizing ideas contained in foresight results.

or more scenarios and understand the drivers leading to them. The scenarios are turned subsequently into prose based on the results of discussion in the workshop.

and to define trends and drivers. Drawing on the joint assessments of potential economic social and technological developments,

It describes the methodological approach taken by the project in identifying research implications of global drivers and trends,

was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.

The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.

Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,

and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:

and consulting team that examined the implications of global drivers and trends for national research and enterprise policy-making in Ireland.

Forfa's, the national policy advisory body for enterprise and science in the Republic of ireland, undertook an exercise to assess the implications of global drivers

‘‘Review of Global Drivers and Trends from a National Perspective in a Global context'',was a four-month exercise that sought to‘‘to develop a catalogue of global drivers and trends,

and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.

An iterative methodology, consisting of different stages of analysis of the drivers and trends, and a series of meetings and workshops, served to validate

Global drivers and trends analysis. The first main phase of the exercise consisted of an initial analysis of global drivers and trends across the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legislative, and Environmental.

Having developed a first catalogue of drivers and trends, the second phase was designed to engage with key stakeholders in Ireland to explore their significance and potential implications for the national context.

Table I Drivers and trends assessment framework 1 Overview description; rationale and evidence 2 Potential impact (global and national;

timescales 3 Potential disruptive factors trend breakers, accelerators, wild cards 4 Connectivity and contingencies links with other drivers and trends 5 Challenges that this presents

6 Opportunities that this presents PAGE 32 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 1. validation of the trends/drivers in national context;

Each discussion had four to five focus questions to ascertain the degree to which these drivers

or four key thematic groups of drivers (briefing material on the drivers had been distributed to participants ahead of discussions).

and focus in analysing the drivers. There were instances in which participants did not feel that certain drivers

and trends were as relevant to Ireland (as they might be to other, larger countries).

Similarly, there were examples where the drivers appeared to be amplified even more in the case of Ireland particularly in terms of economic geography and scale. 3. 3. 3 Phase 3:

During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers

B a challenge has connectivity across two or more drivers or themes at the global level;

The following structure was used to link the national context, the global drivers and the challenges:

but is challenged by/with/to (global drivers). How can Ireland/Can Ireland (the challenge? 3. 3. 4 Phase 4:

The final stage of the project consisted of the production of the final catalogue of drivers and trends.

These were produced by synthesising the Table II The roundtable discussion focus questions 1 The initial drivers work has identified some global drivers that may be relevant.

and what additional or alternative drivers or trends would you suggest? 2 What are the challenges for Ireland that you expect these drivers to raise in the next 10-15 years?

Which are most likely to be influential? Why? Which will have the biggest influence? With what impacts and challenges?

if any, of these drivers for Ireland's research needs and opportunities? 4 Are these drivers

and trends currently addressed by your organisation? For example: recognised and aware of them discussed within work,

policy strategy. 5 has had your organisation contact with other governments internationally in discussing these drivers and trends?

from drivers and trends to grand challenges 4. 1 Catalogue of global drivers and trends from the national context The third level catalogue is a substantial volume that analyses global trends and drivers from a‘‘national

A list of themes, drivers and trends is provided in Table III. Each fiche has a description of the driver/trend,

supported by data and literature. The fiches draw out potential disruptive factors that will constrain or accelerate the phenomenon described.

The national context for each driver is developed then and a series of potential research implications added particularly responding to challenges

and opportunities presented by the global drivers. The research implications developed were based on the consultants'experience in research prioritisation exercises, international comparators and the inputs from the Roundtables. 4. 2 Participants'views of global drivers and trends:

anticipation of likelihood and impact Participants in the roundtable discussions were given time individually to appraise the drivers

and trends through a scoring framework. A scale of 1-5 was used for likelihood and impact.

Figure 1 shows the distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix.

Table III List of thematic groups, drivers and trends identified Theme Drivers and trends Global governance and political economy Rise of the BRICS Global trade falters The emergence of new

VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 35 Figure 1 Distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix Table IV Most likely and highest

The participants that were involved in the consultative events recognised the significance of certain drivers (around

One grand challenge that emerged from the confluence of economic and geopolitical drivers and trends was the potential marginalisation of Ireland within multilateral frameworks:

this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,

During the course of the exercise, the appointed research and consulting team was asked to translate the knowledge generated (global drivers and trends and their national implications) into a set of grand challenges for Ireland.

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