The main drivers of the first region are the CO2 avoidance performance values for Technologies 1, 2,
Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43
Airports are a major driver for regional and national economic development. Future uncertainty is increasing because contextual conditions are less stable,
and are major drivers of regional and national economies. Their long-term planning is therefore of crucial importance 36.
The Prelude scenarios2 are a good example (see Appendix 1). An important input for the scenario work in this group are the comprehensive descriptions of the external drivers for change highlighting the uncertainty of future developments.
Interaction between the organization and the environment is seen as the main driver. This is often reflected in the outcomes envisioning a preferable future and experiments towards that future.
Company profit as the main driver of innovation activity is being complemented. Solving social problems become an important driving force to innovate for both companies and individuals.
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
These are increasingly facing new challenges brought on by a number of major disruptive drivers including, amongst others:
The paper starts with the assumption that global drivers and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.
(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives
33,58 60,67 Performance Prism 33 Independent variables (nonfinancial ones) are identified incorrectly as primary drivers of future stakeholder satisfaction 58 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 There is no criteria
Management 20 (2001) 365 377.72 N. G. Olve, J. Roy, M. Wetter, Performance Drivers: A Practical Guide to Using the Balanced Scorecard, Wiley, Chichester, West sussex-UK, 1999.73 W. O. Hagood,
So-called Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) were to‘‘become key drivers of sustainable growth and competitiveness across Europe through world-leading innovation''52.
At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth and competitiveness of the knowledge econommy In this context the creative content sector is expected to become a major source of nextgenerratio jobs across the world.
ICT are an important driver for both the supply and demand side of the creative content industry.
value chain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Policy implications Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis
innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;
To structuur our discussion we followed the common elemeent used in step 3 to systematically describe our scenarios (global context and key drivers
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
For examplle recognition of the role of information technology (IT) provides a powerful driver of change in approaache to biosecurity
and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
and companies to gain an insight into the main drivers and constraints in service innovation and into the conditions for meeting social and user requirements (Lievens and Pierson, 2006).
Drivers of dynamic processes of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
M. Boden et al. are also internal drivers for the emergence of novel forms of future intelligence
applications, products, markets and drivers with empirical analysis of the policy instruments that are utilised currently. The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument
in order to help stakeholders'thinking oriented by the main ST&I drivers. The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios,
and of the identification of drivers for future events promoting environmental changes, and alterations in the trajectories of relevant phenommena defined by national and international studies,
or change drivers are actually relevant and to imagine a timeframe in which they may possibly occur.
Participation was actually one of the main drivers used to generate durable intangibles. The preoccupations of FINEP's staff and their suggestions about the future of the agency needed to be heard
The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.
The drivers of these changes may range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
is an important driver of innovation and competitiveness, often requiring structural and systemic change and, in turn, necessitating the capacity to design
Amanatidou et al. 2012) in the UK, Netherlands and Singapore at national or regional levels, aimed at identifyiin not only major long-term trends and drivers,
Gather perspectiive on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years (from individuals in ICSU's membership, bodies,
Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,
During Phase 1, perspectives were gathered on potential drivers of international science over the next 20 years.
The outcome of the web consultation was 174 separate ideas for key drivers from 82 individuals from more than 30 countries.
The Task Team distilled these and the other submissions into a set of approximately 30 key drivers,
The CSPR applied the following selection criteria to arrive at a list of no more than 15 key drivers:.
importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science
In addition, a further 13 key drivers, for which trends are much more uncertain, were identified (see Box 1). 3. 2. 2 Phase 2:
and learn from the interplay of key drivers and their attendant uncertainties. The result should be a sense of preferences and of
The first step involved developing plausible forecasts for each of the 13 key drivers. Draft forecasts were prepared by the ICSU Secretariat with inputs from the Task Team.
In a following step, scenarios were developed within four distinct‘scenario spaces'framed by two axes selected from the list of key drivers (van't Klooster and van Asselt 2006.
The selection criteria applied to the key drivers were as follows:.They should be highly influential (even over many other‘key'drivers..
Their forecasts should have a plausibly large range of uncertainty..The two drivers selected should be as independent of each other as possible..
They should generate distinct scenario spaces that are interesting, useful, and relevant with regard to the future of international science..
and globalissm driver. At one end of this axis, countries have oriented a nationnall outlook and tend to look inward
The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis
The traditional models of academic careers and ways of evaluating scientists may change in the light of changes to any of the above drivers.
M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
In particular, the megatrend and key drivers analyses have been important in framing and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades.
Socioeconomic change is a major driver of science and it was considered that the exercise had captured this relationship rather well.
A major driver in this changing landscape has been the recognition that no one country has the intellectual or financial resources to tackle the crucial scientific questions alone.
The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
for example societal drivers, markets, soluttion and technologies in a certain timeframe. A roadmap can create an analytic structure for understandiin how
The first roadmap level in a transformation roadmap is drivers. This level depicts the key drivers
and the so-called‘grand challenges'that are assessed as the most important factors structuring the roadmap topic.
Present Medium term Long term Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Change 2
Victoria is a lead market for solutions suited for buildings in dry and warm climate conditions. 4. 2. 1 Drivers.
At present, the most important driver in the construction sector is cost-efficiency. Short-term pressuure for profit dominate over the longer term building performance issues and user needs.
A further driver is a demographic change in advanced economies that is reflected in the residential housing sector The aging population requires the adaptation of homes
The key policies can be categorized into the levels of drivers, markets, products and solutions, and technologies.
At the level of drivers, the most important policy would be Present Medium term Long term Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Policies:
Demographic change in advanced economies DRIVERS: Support to strategy processes and global market foresight MARKETS: Sub-optimisation, price dominates;
Smart production and recycling technologies have resulted in Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Technology roadmap 1:
Sustainable decisions are supported also by governmmenta regulation and other incentives. 5. 3. Transformation roadmap 5. 3. 1 Drivers.
At present there are four important drivers for environmentally sustainable ICT. The first is increasing awareness of the global consequences of climate change.
it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials
The third driver is emission trading, which is currently starting to have an effect on companies.
The fourth driver is the rising living standards in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China.
In the medium term, global warming is expected to be the major driver at the global level. Consequently, more concrete regulation and incentives for both citizens and companies will be utilized.
The increasing price of energy and raw materials is also a significant driver. In the long term, drivers other than just climate change will play a larger role globally.
The scarcity of some critical resources, such as fresh water and rare earth metals, will have major effects. Consumption fees, taxes and regulation can be used to control user behaviour. 5. 3. 2 Policies.
The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
Another driver for more collaboration is the increasing pressure in Europe1 and other parts of the world2 for research and innovation to both support competitiveness3 and offer solutions to global and local societal challenges.
However, despite clear drivers for collaboration, there are also major challennge and barriers. In this paper we address such challenges
Based on Seiser (2010) Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of science Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of policy-making Bottom-up Top-down More focus on scientific frontier Feeding
Among strong drivers for transnational research programming the recent emphasis on pooling resources for finding innovative solutions to major societal challennge has created a strong impetus to overcome these barriers.
Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312. Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
and anything that is related to substantial potential change'before he elaborates an alternative scanning framework that embodies concepts such as weak signals, drivers and trends.
2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).
A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of informatiion'Futures, 42:42 8. Liesio, J.,Mild, P. and Salo,
Saritas, O. and Smith, J. E. 2011)‘ The big picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312.
Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.
and breaking them down into suitable subchallenges and their associated drivers (see Figs 3 6:
The chosen challenges were broken down into subchallenges and their drivers according to the report. 2) Extracting and evaluating technological solution approaches for each subchallenge (see Figs 3, 4 and 6:
Figure 4. Example of identification of subchallenges and drivers. Figure 3. Assessment of grand challenges according to a set of Fraunhofer criteria.
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