| Driver (292) |  |
| Driver of strategy (6) | |
| Drivers of change (72) | |
| Emerging driver (3) | |
| New driver (3) | |
| Driver (292) | |
| Driver of strategy (6) | |
| Drivers of change (72) | |
| Emerging driver (3) | |
| New driver (3) | |
Following a widely shared definition, foresight aims at improving future-oriented decision making through the early detection and assessment of emerging trends and drivers of change 18.
drivers of change and prospective discontinuities that might be expected within 5 10 or 15 years. The rationale for this concern tended to be expressed in these terms:‘‘
The second section of the paper first clarifies the definitions of the concepts used including trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks
Finally, Section 4 draws the overall conclusions and rounds off the paper. 2. Definitions of terminology Trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities,
Proliferation of nation states and groupings of peoples seeking self determination status. 2. 2. Drivers of change The second key definition concerns those forces,
In this context, the definition for drivers of change was decided to focus on things that are accessible and directly impacting one's influence environment.
Thus, drivers of change are those factors, forces or events developments which may be amenable to changes according to one's strategic choices, investments, R&d activities or foresight knowledge and strategies.
Then, the in the second part, the respondents were asked to identify a list of trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, weak signals and discontinuities.
drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities and weak signals 3. 2. 2. 1. Trends. The trends obtained from the survey were mapped on the STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.
who expect low level of controversy. 3. 2. 3. Drivers of change The main orientations of the drivers are represented with the following radar diagram.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 302 Fig. 7 shows the frequency distribution of drivers of change and the most widely cited ones.
Table 3 presents some of the critical drivers of change suggested by the respondents. In contrast to the trends, the drivers are grounded more in current areas of expected leverage such as society-cultural change factors,
and differentiated. 3. 2. 3. 1. Joint assessment of Foresight experience and drivers of change. A balanced distribution is observed among the respondents with 1 3, 5 10 and over 15 years experience.
Joint assessment of country of residence and drivers of change. Approximately 60%of the drivers were assessed by the EU-27 respondents.
TD$FIG Fig. 6. Orientations of drivers of change. TD$FIG Fig. 7. Frequency distribution of top 10 drivers. O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment.
Vecchiato distinguishes between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and explores their implications for strategic foresight. How do businesses develop successful continuity
We distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and find that they entail different requirements for the design and implementation of strategic foresight actions.
The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:
on the one hand, the selected firms operated in distinct industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
and the main drivers of change in each industry of our sample firms since the early 1990s.
We then distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and shed light on their implications for foresight and strategic decision-making.
and refers to managers'inability to predict what the consequences of drivers of change will be on their organisations (e g. will customers switch from a traditional product fuel-based car to an innovative one hybrid car?).
the first regards environmental scanning and the detection of new events and drivers of change (Mendonça and Sapio 2009.
and implementation of appropriate techniques for anticipating the likely evolution of drivers of change (state uncertainty), their consequences on the organisation (effect uncertainty),
and technological drivers of change interact in novel and unforeseeable ways. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014 786 R. Vecchiato Prominent scholars supported the idea that the best way to handle an uncertain future is to ignore it
We aim at expanding our understanding of environmental uncertainty by exploring the different kinds of drivers of change
and Siemens operated in different industries that underwent considerably different (kinds of) drivers of change and conditions of uncertainty.
we analysed the foresight activities of each firm in relation to uncertainty and drivers of change in its business environment and the use of strategic foresight in decision-making.
We grouped our sample firms into two clusters on the basis of the similarities in the kinds of drivers of change they faced and the foresight approaches they adopted:
and automotive) where the main drivers of change stemmed from the macro environment; on the other hand, Philips and Siemens operated in fastpaace industries (consumer electronics and information and communication technology (ICT))
the huge number of drivers of change in the PEEST landscapes, their strong mutual influences, and the slow overall pace of evolution have contributed to high complexity.
impact, and response options to macro drivers of change (i e. for coping with state, effect, and response uncertainty) was framed around scenarios.
and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006). Such system aims at encompassing and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues.
which progresssivel links macro drivers of change with specific management objectives and business issues. The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
All the firms of our sample were able to detect promptly the key drivers of change in their business.
this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
The key drivers of change for example, rise of new rivals from emerging countries and financial crisis had relevant consequeence on the evolution of the main components of the business (micro) environment and thus on the organisation.
these drivers of change did not affect either the identity of these components or the identity of the main activities of value chain of the chemical or the automotive business. 6 Over the last two decades,
However, what Daimler (and BASF) could not know in the face of the main drivers of change affecting its industries was how these drivers could evolve (e g. the length and strength of the financial crisis:
drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
Building on the concept of boundary uncertainty, we distinguish between two main types of drivers of change.
The first is‘continuous'drivers of change that support and enhance the traditioona identity of the main components of the business micro environment, leading to incremental developments in the value chain, products, and services.
Continuous drivers of change typically affect mature and global industries where trajectories of technologies and customer needs are established well
which surrounds the industry. 7 The second category is‘discontinuous'drivers of change that bring about boundary uncertainty, by leading to completely new kinds of products, players,
Discontiinuou drivers of change are typically disruptive technologies (Christensen 1997) and new customer needs stemming from emerging or growing industries.
Discontinuous and continuous drivers of change entail very different and peculiar implications for strategic foresight and the tools and practices to be used for handling uncertainty.
Let us consider the case of continuous drivers of change and the chemical and automotive industries first.
First, these techniques allowed managers to think about the alternative evolutions of drivers of change (state uncertainty) in an organic and systematic way.
and our competitive position as these could be affected by alternative paths of evolution of drivers of change.
as they were facing discontinuous drivers of change, managers at Philips and Siemens had to address the crucial task of identifying the new boundaries of their business.
and response uncertainty (e g. partnership with Internet service providers) of‘discontinuous'drivers of change. Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation.
and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.
our findings suggest that decision-makers facing discontinuous drivers of change and boundary uncertainty are more likely to focus their predictive efforts on environmental scanning
Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
Discontinuous drivers of change typically stem from technology-driven industries which are at the initial stage of their life cycle.
Our arguments suggest that a crucial issue is the ability to distinguish continuous drivers of change from discontinuous ones.
6. It is worth stressing the difference between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change, on the one hand, and‘wild cards',on the other hand.
we do not mean that mature industries might not be affected by‘discontinuous'drivers of change: a new technological paradigm might be established in mature industries as well,
the automotive and chemical industries were affected not by such‘discontinuous'drivers of change and, more generally, that these drivers are quite infrequent in mature industries.
Assessing the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change. Technological forecasting and Social Change 77, no. 9: 1527 39.
Drivers of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from profound technological changes, emergence of new business models and major economic restructuring, environmental disruptions, to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past.
This uncertainty is reflected in a distinguished set of possible long-term future images that are derived often from a multi-axes framework of the most important but uncertain drivers of change.
when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future fromdata and relationships of the past.
'Acknowledging this highlighted the need for a multi-phase exercise, where the key drivers of change Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
or so to explore, in a structured way, future key drivers of change. On top of this, several dedicated activities were organised,
such as forecasts around key drivers of change, were used extensively. 3. 2 The three phases of ICSU foresight The foresight exercise entailed three phases as follows:.
Identifying key drivers of change. During Phase 1, perspectives were gathered on potential drivers of international science over the next 20 years.
Box 1. Key drivers of change affecting international science cooperation. 172. M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
and encouraged a more rigorous treatment of the key drivers of change that are likely to impact on the future state and directions of internatiiona cooperation in science over the longer term.
More externally, the various results of the exercise, including the key drivers of change and the exploratory scenarios, have been packaged as a resource for member organisations
Saritas and Smith (2011), for instance, consider trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities, and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned.
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