Synopsis: Driver:

or team-Measuring is coordinated-Customers as driver, focus on productivity and efficiency-Target is on cost reduction aiming competitive advantages-Seek social environmental improvement,

to enable business networks 807 Partnerships-Selection driver is price-Hierarchical structure-Functionally driven-Competition among partners-Selection driver is delivery-Matrix structure where partners interact

and proactive collaboration starts to be felt-Selection driver Is distributed quality coordination structure where structured collaboration starts to be felt-Stakeholders'engage

and trust are leveraged through dialogue-Communities of practice structure (focus on values)- Driver is trust, values and mission are defined jiontly-Symbiotic network structure-Education across the net Motivation-Environment of we/they competition between individuals-Behavioural structure with no sense of ownership-Structure of individual teams (no focus on collective performance;

and long term) and roadmap layers (such as drivers, markets, and enabling technologies). In the systemic context, roadmapping refers to a continuous and transparent process, not a single exercise,

The second way is the identification of societal needs as drivers for the design of solutions.

This means that one tries to understand the systemic linkages between roadmap layers, such as linkages between societal drivers

and outside the organisation Capacities for aligning development activities with societal drivers Building a market vision Capacities for market creation or entering into existing markets as a novel player Identification of novel

BAU, business as usual. macro-scale societal phenomena (drivers and megatrends. It should be noted that the differences between the technology space

The first workshop was about drivers and technologies. The second workshop considered the future markeets business potential,

and potential future drivers for the services. Construction Machinery Roadmap: strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.

Drivers, barriers and systems failures. Energy Policy 33, no. 16: 2123 38. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 859 Guo, Y.,L. Huang,

and drivers as well as trends are known only partially. At the same time, diverging interests, opinions and agendas pose challenges to the new and still crystallizing ideas contained in foresight results.

or more scenarios and understand the drivers leading to them. The scenarios are turned subsequently into prose based on the results of discussion in the workshop.

and to define trends and drivers. Drawing on the joint assessments of potential economic social and technological developments,

It describes the methodological approach taken by the project in identifying research implications of global drivers and trends,

was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.

The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.

Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,

and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:

and consulting team that examined the implications of global drivers and trends for national research and enterprise policy-making in Ireland.

Forfa's, the national policy advisory body for enterprise and science in the Republic of ireland, undertook an exercise to assess the implications of global drivers

‘‘Review of Global Drivers and Trends from a National Perspective in a Global context'',was a four-month exercise that sought to‘‘to develop a catalogue of global drivers and trends,

and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.

An iterative methodology, consisting of different stages of analysis of the drivers and trends, and a series of meetings and workshops, served to validate

Global drivers and trends analysis. The first main phase of the exercise consisted of an initial analysis of global drivers and trends across the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legislative, and Environmental.

Having developed a first catalogue of drivers and trends, the second phase was designed to engage with key stakeholders in Ireland to explore their significance and potential implications for the national context.

Table I Drivers and trends assessment framework 1 Overview description; rationale and evidence 2 Potential impact (global and national;

timescales 3 Potential disruptive factors trend breakers, accelerators, wild cards 4 Connectivity and contingencies links with other drivers and trends 5 Challenges that this presents

6 Opportunities that this presents PAGE 32 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 1. validation of the trends/drivers in national context;

Each discussion had four to five focus questions to ascertain the degree to which these drivers

or four key thematic groups of drivers (briefing material on the drivers had been distributed to participants ahead of discussions).

and focus in analysing the drivers. There were instances in which participants did not feel that certain drivers

and trends were as relevant to Ireland (as they might be to other, larger countries).

Similarly, there were examples where the drivers appeared to be amplified even more in the case of Ireland particularly in terms of economic geography and scale. 3. 3. 3 Phase 3:

During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers

B a challenge has connectivity across two or more drivers or themes at the global level;

The following structure was used to link the national context, the global drivers and the challenges:

but is challenged by/with/to (global drivers). How can Ireland/Can Ireland (the challenge? 3. 3. 4 Phase 4:

The final stage of the project consisted of the production of the final catalogue of drivers and trends.

These were produced by synthesising the Table II The roundtable discussion focus questions 1 The initial drivers work has identified some global drivers that may be relevant.

and what additional or alternative drivers or trends would you suggest? 2 What are the challenges for Ireland that you expect these drivers to raise in the next 10-15 years?

Which are most likely to be influential? Why? Which will have the biggest influence? With what impacts and challenges?

if any, of these drivers for Ireland's research needs and opportunities? 4 Are these drivers

and trends currently addressed by your organisation? For example: recognised and aware of them discussed within work,

policy strategy. 5 has had your organisation contact with other governments internationally in discussing these drivers and trends?

from drivers and trends to grand challenges 4. 1 Catalogue of global drivers and trends from the national context The third level catalogue is a substantial volume that analyses global trends and drivers from a‘‘national

A list of themes, drivers and trends is provided in Table III. Each fiche has a description of the driver/trend,

supported by data and literature. The fiches draw out potential disruptive factors that will constrain or accelerate the phenomenon described.

The national context for each driver is developed then and a series of potential research implications added particularly responding to challenges

and opportunities presented by the global drivers. The research implications developed were based on the consultants'experience in research prioritisation exercises, international comparators and the inputs from the Roundtables. 4. 2 Participants'views of global drivers and trends:

anticipation of likelihood and impact Participants in the roundtable discussions were given time individually to appraise the drivers

and trends through a scoring framework. A scale of 1-5 was used for likelihood and impact.

Figure 1 shows the distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix.

Table III List of thematic groups, drivers and trends identified Theme Drivers and trends Global governance and political economy Rise of the BRICS Global trade falters The emergence of new

VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 35 Figure 1 Distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix Table IV Most likely and highest

The participants that were involved in the consultative events recognised the significance of certain drivers (around

One grand challenge that emerged from the confluence of economic and geopolitical drivers and trends was the potential marginalisation of Ireland within multilateral frameworks:

this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,

During the course of the exercise, the appointed research and consulting team was asked to translate the knowledge generated (global drivers and trends and their national implications) into a set of grand challenges for Ireland.

Drivers of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from profound technological changes, emergence of new business models and major economic restructuring, environmental disruptions, to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.

The main drivers of the first region are the CO2 avoidance performance values for Technologies 1, 2,

Techniques and Applications, Adison-Wesley, 1975.11 O. Saritas, J. E. Smith, The Big Picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals, Futures 43

Airports are a major driver for regional and national economic development. Future uncertainty is increasing because contextual conditions are less stable,

and are major drivers of regional and national economies. Their long-term planning is therefore of crucial importance 36.

when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past.

The Prelude scenarios2 are a good example (see Appendix 1). An important input for the scenario work in this group are the comprehensive descriptions of the external drivers for change highlighting the uncertainty of future developments.

This uncertainty is reflected in a distinguished set of possible long-term future images that are derived often from a multi-axes framework of the most important but uncertain drivers of change.

Interaction between the organization and the environment is seen as the main driver. This is often reflected in the outcomes envisioning a preferable future and experiments towards that future.

when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future fromdata and relationships of the past.

Company profit as the main driver of innovation activity is being complemented. Solving social problems become an important driving force to innovate for both companies and individuals.

Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008.5 J. Cassingena Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technol.

workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms

These are increasingly facing new challenges brought on by a number of major disruptive drivers including, amongst others:

The paper starts with the assumption that global drivers and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.

(i) anticipation of the drivers and weak signals of change with the intention of being prepared for whatever might follow from the ongoing and future social, economic and political mayhem with a rich understanding of systems, their history and possible futures,(ii) analysis of different stakeholder perspectives

33,58 60,67 Performance Prism 33 Independent variables (nonfinancial ones) are identified incorrectly as primary drivers of future stakeholder satisfaction 58 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) 58 There is no criteria

Management 20 (2001) 365 377.72 N. G. Olve, J. Roy, M. Wetter, Performance Drivers: A Practical Guide to Using the Balanced Scorecard, Wiley, Chichester, West sussex-UK, 1999.73 W. O. Hagood,

So-called Knowledge and Innovation communities (KICS) were to‘‘become key drivers of sustainable growth and competitiveness across Europe through world-leading innovation''52.

At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth and competitiveness of the knowledge econommy In this context the creative content sector is expected to become a major source of nextgenerratio jobs across the world.

ICT are an important driver for both the supply and demand side of the creative content industry.

value chain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Policy implications Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis

innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;

To structuur our discussion we followed the common elemeent used in step 3 to systematically describe our scenarios (global context and key drivers

and emerging drivers of change Builds trust and shared basis of experience between system actors Detect

and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.

For examplle recognition of the role of information technology (IT) provides a powerful driver of change in approaache to biosecurity

and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.

Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.

and companies to gain an insight into the main drivers and constraints in service innovation and into the conditions for meeting social and user requirements (Lievens and Pierson, 2006).

Drivers of dynamic processes of change and sudden disruptive transformations range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.

M. Boden et al. are also internal drivers for the emergence of novel forms of future intelligence

applications, products, markets and drivers with empirical analysis of the policy instruments that are utilised currently. The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument

in order to help stakeholders'thinking oriented by the main ST&I drivers. The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios,

and of the identification of drivers for future events promoting environmental changes, and alterations in the trajectories of relevant phenommena defined by national and international studies,

or change drivers are actually relevant and to imagine a timeframe in which they may possibly occur.

Participation was actually one of the main drivers used to generate durable intangibles. The preoccupations of FINEP's staff and their suggestions about the future of the agency needed to be heard

and emerging drivers of change Identify New s&t, business, societal, policy and political opportunities Increase awareness of possible risks,

The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations.

The drivers of these changes may range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.

is an important driver of innovation and competitiveness, often requiring structural and systemic change and, in turn, necessitating the capacity to design

Amanatidou et al. 2012) in the UK, Netherlands and Singapore at national or regional levels, aimed at identifyiin not only major long-term trends and drivers,

'Acknowledging this highlighted the need for a multi-phase exercise, where the key drivers of change Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.

or so to explore, in a structured way, future key drivers of change. On top of this, several dedicated activities were organised,

such as forecasts around key drivers of change, were used extensively. 3. 2 The three phases of ICSU foresight The foresight exercise entailed three phases as follows:.

Gather perspectiive on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years (from individuals in ICSU's membership, bodies,

Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..

Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,

Identifying key drivers of change. During Phase 1, perspectives were gathered on potential drivers of international science over the next 20 years.

Three primary sources were used: insights from particiipant at ICSU-related meetings; a web consultation of ICSU members, bodies, partners,

The outcome of the web consultation was 174 separate ideas for key drivers from 82 individuals from more than 30 countries.

The Task Team distilled these and the other submissions into a set of approximately 30 key drivers,

The CSPR applied the following selection criteria to arrive at a list of no more than 15 key drivers:.

importance of the driver in shaping future developmeent over the next 20 years in international science. uncertainty around the direction and dynamics of the driver over the next 20 years and the impacts it is likely to have on international science

In addition, a further 13 key drivers, for which trends are much more uncertain, were identified (see Box 1). 3. 2. 2 Phase 2:

and learn from the interplay of key drivers and their attendant uncertainties. The result should be a sense of preferences and of

The first step involved developing plausible forecasts for each of the 13 key drivers. Draft forecasts were prepared by the ICSU Secretariat with inputs from the Task Team.

In a following step, scenarios were developed within four distinct‘scenario spaces'framed by two axes selected from the list of key drivers (van't Klooster and van Asselt 2006.

The selection criteria applied to the key drivers were as follows:.They should be highly influential (even over many other‘key'drivers..

Their forecasts should have a plausibly large range of uncertainty..The two drivers selected should be as independent of each other as possible..

They should generate distinct scenario spaces that are interesting, useful, and relevant with regard to the future of international science..

and globalissm driver. At one end of this axis, countries have oriented a nationnall outlook and tend to look inward

The second selected axis was based on the‘science and society'driver. At one end of this axis

The traditional models of academic careers and ways of evaluating scientists may change in the light of changes to any of the above drivers.

Box 1. Key drivers of change affecting international science cooperation. 172. M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.

This involved a fair amount of trial-and-error and over the course of the months following the April 2010 workshop,

and encouraged a more rigorous treatment of the key drivers of change that are likely to impact on the future state and directions of internatiiona cooperation in science over the longer term.

In particular, the megatrend and key drivers analyses have been important in framing and articulating the challenges to be faced by international science cooperation over the coming decades.

Socioeconomic change is a major driver of science and it was considered that the exercise had captured this relationship rather well.

More externally, the various results of the exercise, including the key drivers of change and the exploratory scenarios, have been packaged as a resource for member organisations

A major driver in this changing landscape has been the recognition that no one country has the intellectual or financial resources to tackle the crucial scientific questions alone.

The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.

IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.

for example societal drivers, markets, soluttion and technologies in a certain timeframe. A roadmap can create an analytic structure for understandiin how

The first roadmap level in a transformation roadmap is drivers. This level depicts the key drivers

and the so-called‘grand challenges'that are assessed as the most important factors structuring the roadmap topic.

Present Medium term Long term Present stage Change 2 Change 3 Change 4 Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Change 2

Victoria is a lead market for solutions suited for buildings in dry and warm climate conditions. 4. 2. 1 Drivers.

At present, the most important driver in the construction sector is cost-efficiency. Short-term pressuure for profit dominate over the longer term building performance issues and user needs.

A further driver is a demographic change in advanced economies that is reflected in the residential housing sector The aging population requires the adaptation of homes

The key policies can be categorized into the levels of drivers, markets, products and solutions, and technologies.

At the level of drivers, the most important policy would be Present Medium term Long term Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Policies:

Demographic change in advanced economies DRIVERS: Support to strategy processes and global market foresight MARKETS: Sub-optimisation, price dominates;

Smart production and recycling technologies have resulted in Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Technology roadmap 1:

Sustainable decisions are supported also by governmmenta regulation and other incentives. 5. 3. Transformation roadmap 5. 3. 1 Drivers.

At present there are four important drivers for environmentally sustainable ICT. The first is increasing awareness of the global consequences of climate change.

it can be a driver for environmental solutions by focusing on issues such as the reduction of materials

The third driver is emission trading, which is currently starting to have an effect on companies.

The fourth driver is the rising living standards in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China.

In the medium term, global warming is expected to be the major driver at the global level. Consequently, more concrete regulation and incentives for both citizens and companies will be utilized.

The increasing price of energy and raw materials is also a significant driver. In the long term, drivers other than just climate change will play a larger role globally.

The scarcity of some critical resources, such as fresh water and rare earth metals, will have major effects. Consumption fees, taxes and regulation can be used to control user behaviour. 5. 3. 2 Policies.

The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.

Another driver for more collaboration is the increasing pressure in Europe1 and other parts of the world2 for research and innovation to both support competitiveness3 and offer solutions to global and local societal challenges.

However, despite clear drivers for collaboration, there are also major challennge and barriers. In this paper we address such challenges

Based on Seiser (2010) Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of science Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of policy-making Bottom-up Top-down More focus on scientific frontier Feeding

Among strong drivers for transnational research programming the recent emphasis on pooling resources for finding innovative solutions to major societal challennge has created a strong impetus to overcome these barriers.

Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312. Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.

Saritas and Smith (2011), for instance, consider trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities, and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned.

and anything that is related to substantial potential change'before he elaborates an alternative scanning framework that embodies concepts such as weak signals, drivers and trends.

2008 on Future-oriented technology analysis a‘big picture'survey was conducted on trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011).

A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of informatiion'Futures, 42:42 8. Liesio, J.,Mild, P. and Salo,

Saritas, O. and Smith, J. E. 2011)‘ The big picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312.

Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.

and breaking them down into suitable subchallenges and their associated drivers (see Figs 3 6:

The chosen challenges were broken down into subchallenges and their drivers according to the report. 2) Extracting and evaluating technological solution approaches for each subchallenge (see Figs 3, 4 and 6:

Figure 4. Example of identification of subchallenges and drivers. Figure 3. Assessment of grand challenges according to a set of Fraunhofer criteria.

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