Principle

Guiding principle (7)
Precautionary principle (9)
Principle (183)

Synopsis: Principle:

predecessors, principles and processes 3. 1. Early attempts of bringing together foresight and adaptive planning The preceding section outlined the conceptual foundations of Adaptive foresight.

and closed process elements in order to bring foresight fully to bear on decision-making. 3. 2. Principles and process of Adaptive foresight Adaptive in Adaptive foresight can be understood usefully in at least three different ways:

If the principles behind AF are to be effective they thus need to be tied closely not only to policy design,

Principles and general vision by countries), Econ. Ind. 341 (2001) 107 118.4 A. Tübke, K. Ducatel, J. P. Gavigan, P. Moncada-Paternò-Castello, Strategic policy intelligence:

From Precautionary principle to (Regulatory) Impact analysis, AEI Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies (ed.),Working Paper 04-07,2004.

But for new and Emerging s&t this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are articulated not yet.

based on selected principles derived from natural sciences and on selected material technology().A technological paradigm embodies strong prescriptions on the directions of technical change to pursue and those to neglect.

and bridge the technology hurdle of integrating these proof-of-principle devices and combine them into an experimental platform for systems research such as protein analysis in the lab (moving from phase 1 to phase 2). Such an integration of a number of devices into an experimental system is undertaken usually in a university laboratory.

and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.

and instruments are constructed around the principle of using multiple cells; compared with single cell analysis this has certain advantages

That is why there are always more paths as defined by underlying physical principles within the larger path.

in order to identify the principles and criteria that have to be followed and adopted in foresight exercises if these impacts are to be attained intentionally.

together with the principles and criteria governing their relationship with outputs and impacts (both direct and indirect) and with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment.

inputs and principles/criteria governing their relationship with outputs and impacts). In this way, it should be possible to identify the Fig. 3. a:

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

A conceptual framework of this nature sheds light on the dynamics of foresight programmes and helps identify the principles

and implementation of foresight programmes by adding design and implementation principles to the existing evaluation issues of efficiency,

Based on the above findings, detail can be added to the two previous figures via the addition of elaborated sets of governing factors and design principles and criteria.

the above discussion can shed some light firstly on the criteria/principles that should govern the elements of a Foresight (internal) System,

and principles that have to be followed if foresight exercises are to result in impacts in line with the evolution of participatory‘knowledge societies'.

and several major inventions have preceded long the proper theories of their underpinning scientific principles, such as the steam engine, the first airplanes, semiconductors, etc.

represent morphological principles actively at work in structuring the data. In the example given below there is a 70%chance that nodes C

reduction of uncertainties was the guiding principle for structuring the decision problem, we will propose a foresight based approach that allows for considering a maximum range of uncertainties.

At the same time, it also indicates how effectively the development in question complies with the principles of sustainable development.

indicating how effectively the development in question complies with the principles of sustainable development. The indicators of societies fulfilling the requirements of sustainable development are social values, environmental responsibility and environmental systems.

2 give an overall state-of-the-art on principles and challenges in constructing composite indicators (Appendix A presents examples of composite indicators).

The principle of the concept of the online survey questionnaire is shown in Fig. 4. The first page of the online survey explained the BMBF Foresight process and the online survey in general.

Fig. 4. Principle of the survey design (questionnaire concept. 1192 K. Cuhls et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 4. Some results In the end, eight new future fields (broader fields) with a different perspective as well as single future topics in all 20

reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes.

which the guiding principles of Foresight are laid clearly out so that individual participants feel that their participation is valued Simplicity of participation and transparency of outcome:

this is why the evolutionary principle adopted in the German FUTUR programme is important. Public institutions already play an important role as programme sponsors.

The seven principles of the Code are: Precaution Inclusiveness though not in the sense used in this paper Integrity Better and constant vigilance to assess developments

and effectiveness of governance Realising societal benefits Credibility and trust for good governance and openness to public scrutiny of risks and expectations Protection of fundamental rights in the absence of the precautionary principle through unavoidable situations.

The seven principles of the Code are aligned well the metaphor for inclusiveness as intended in this paper as a way of ameliorating the deficit.

The principles of precaution and parsimony are likely to be ever present in Foresight where public participation

whether an innovation will move from a hopeful proof-of-principle to a product well embedded in our society.

Principles of Oversight) up to a moratorium (cf. ETC-Group and others. And there was additional uncertainty about consumer

Although not an official body, the Nanodiablog community is deemed a high quality indicator of the populace (in any case the populace who takes an interest) and principles such as precaution, inclusiveness (transparency), integrity (protection for whistle blowers), ongoing

The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes but framed by self-assessment mechanisms (degree of precaution unclear).

Not all actors in R&d sign up to the codes, the broadness of principles causes concerns with some actors a large pharmaceutical company states,

5. 2. 2011 2012 nanoproducts proliferate The Precautionary principle is promoted within codes but framed by self-assessment mechanisms

here the precautionary principle is placed up front in the text, and to emphasize that there can be degrees of precaution.

but also highlights principles for using foresight for priority setting more generally. Weber et al. discusses the trade-offs between policy impacts of FTA with the experience gained from the innovation policy foresight

but also highlights principles for using foresight for priority-setting more generally. Keywords: foresight; priority-setting;

which stresses five principles of good governance: participation, accountability, openness, effectiveness, coherence. 2. 2. Foresight in support of policy strategy formation The aforementioned shift in conceiving of policy-making processes is reflected in the evolving practices of foresight.

3) In revising the City of Vienna business promotion principles‘ZIT 08plus'more attention will be given to crosscutting issues of RTI policies,

The newbusiness promotion principles were introduced at the beginning of 2008 already. Other kickoff projects as well as further initiatives are planned to be launched from 2009 onwards.

and principles will enable such an extension into the social sphere, without causing the process to become chaotic.

visioning as a form of community participation does not yet follow commonly recognised principles and processes.

This paper argues that constructing a specific image of young people as stakeholders points towards a dilemma of inclusive foresight that cannot be rectified by specific management and process principles.

Using expert and stakeholder panels in technology foresight principles and practice. Foresight Methodoloogie 45 59. UNIDO. http://www. tc. cz/dokums publikace/tf-course-textbook-unido 1085 11. pdf (accessed September 2009.

Expectations and learning as principles for shaping the future. In Contested futures: a sociology of prospective techno-science, ed. N. Brown, B. Rappert,

but the specifics are less important than the principles. Namely, many aspects of data cleaning, statistical analyses, trend analyses,

8. A key principle is to maximize engagement and ongoing interaction of the QTIP players with each other.

Their guiding principle is‘no one-size fits all across sectors. They argue that this tailored approach should be adopted in the development of the European research area.

and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*

Some features may be the inclusion of the principles of industrial ecology and its near relative ecological economics.

The latter is the principle of Agenda 21 (the document consensually approved at the UN Conference on Environment

offers nine principles relating to human rights and the environment which have become the ethical roadmap for the future.

the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises (MNES) provide voluntary principles and standards for responsible business conduct in a variety of areas including employment and industrial relations;

Nevertheless, the number of voluntary standards has risen in the last decades and put companies in difficult situations in abiding by their principles.

principles that apply to a firm's relationship to society as readily as to its relationship to its customers and rivals.

and principles of CSR and the GRI reporting into organisational strategies and culture across their value chains. 4 FTSE index date back from 1962,

The organisation of industry on this principle with the waste products of some branches of industry providing raw material for others means in effect using natural processes as a model,

The marriage of the principles of industrial ecology and those of ecological economics, and its influence on globalisation, glocalisation and governance,

and (iii) principle affiliation/role. The results are analysed in greater detail in the fifth section.

Taleb 10 has derived also a series of principles for organizations governments to try to avoid he kinds of disruptions that Black swan events tend to cause.

In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,

-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward

Charles Lieber's group, Harvard university, Cambridge, Massachusetts) 16 published the architecture (Fig. 5) of how to make these nonvolatile memories based on the suspended SWNT crossbar (proof of principle.

G. Schmergel, T. Rueckes and B. M. Segal founded Nantero in 2000 (Rueckes being one of the inventors of the proof of principle.

which is applying the precautionary principle. From the market side the expectations focus on the possibilities that nanotubes might have to improve or revolutionise existing products.

bthis proof of principle raises hopes that a nanotube lattice could form computer memory, storing one bit of information at each junction.

Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.

insofar as they do not conflict with sustainability principles. In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.

The big challenge is to satisfy multiple and diverse social demands without putting the sustainability principles at risk.

Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,

heterogeneous social demands without endangering the principles of sustainable development. Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly

and more based on management principles. B The urban planning processes will have to incorporate breakthrough innovations and subsequently, be totally reengineered.

detailing its common characteristics and principles. FTA, in this respect, has provided not only a common framework through

devising a set of principles that define their fundamental characteristics. 3. Law and FTA: case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.

The principle of taking into account the knowledge about presumed or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.

The emergence of an eye cannot result from following some mechanistic principles that add up to a functioning eye.

The precautionary principle might have questioned the assumption that a Richter scale 9 event might occur (a low probability event)

accommodating whatever principles and mind-sets are needed by the work in hand; it is suggested that this happens already but by default.

FTA's premises and principles ought to draw on those fields. Instead FTA seems to draw extensively on

but within the general principles that apply to elicitation procedures. The first step was identification of a sufficient number of people in each of the three categories who were willing to be interviewed:

its dynamic boundary and the ecological safe-fail principle that is a manifestation of ignorance, placing the current emphasis on

'and are similar to the ecological‘safe-fail'principle, whereas the more common‘fail-safe'principle is akin to the other two forms of ignorance 2. The NUSAP system examines quantitative data as follows:

N for correctness of the number: U similarly for the units: S for simple statistical spread:

the redefinition is based on universal principles (Covey 1997) shaped by six dimensions of sustainability (Bursztyn et al. 1999;

It is based on universal principles and shaped by the other three pillars of sustainable development: spatial-technological, institutional-political and cultural-values.

first, in a group of critical principles that need to be internalised into the core of the organisation's operations to shape the route towards sustainable development and, second,

There remains a gap between offering the crucial principles and values that should mould an organisation's behaviour

Principles and values: primarily universal principles and their learning aspect, that is, how companies integrate or‘internalise'the underlying principles into their vision

so that they can be translated further into their core business operations. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 800 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge Table 1. Existing tools and their relation to the PDCA cycle.

PDCA cycle and Life-cycle Management system analysis ISO 14001 AA 1000 SIGMA Decide to be in business Environmental policy definition P Design the business Objective

the actions or behaviours needed to promote the translation of the principles embedded in the vision into broad activities that,

The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)

inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,

Features of universal ethics or universal principles and those of respect (Zohar 1990; Cagnin 2000) can be linked with Losada's notions of high-performance teams and organisations:

critical principles that are taken often not into account by existing tools and shows the necessary activities and the interrelationships that need to be managed systemically to shape business sustainability.

Putting principles first. In Rethinking the future, ed. R. Gibson, 34 46. London: Nicholas Brealey.

and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed

and essential to achieve a cooperative and systematic network Strategy It is the business commitment with a set of principles, values and policies

and indicators along the network and thus create individual and cooperative competitive advantages Operation The business principles

based on universal principles, cooperation, innovation and continuous learning, but also based on the diverse range of feedback and partnership the company is able to build.

and propose that principles of roadmapping could be applied in building the systemic capacities. We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,

Totally new principle (by nanotechnology) Enlarged the effective optical path for absorption DSSCS Is coming to market Organic materials Shorten the path that electrons

In conjunction with this principle, a call for innovation through scientific and technological development was mentioned first clearly in the Third Basic Plan.

-B New principle for information and communication 05-G Space technologies (including space medicine) 09-A Base materials for nanotechnologyb 09-B Output (device, systemization and applied

(i e. to key factors of environmental degradation in Russia, the main principles of state ecological policy, the list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration,

and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Verify the principle of superconductivity at room temperature'',High-efficiency power generation equipment (efficiency 90 percent) commercialization,

These should follow certain principles to ensure quality in both processes and outputs and be supported by appropriate combinations of quantitative and qualitative methods,

and principles as to how to strengthen innovation systems through scenario analysis. In this context, scenarios are seen as a tool for inspiring and orienting innovation systems.

Hence, principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios require representation and collaboration as well as the integration of different modes of future thinking

Mainstream economics still has strong objections to the application of pure Darwinian principles in the working of agents in the socioeconomic realm.

It urges to accept the general principle of devolutionary Epistemology, T which interprets the whole history of human social, intellectual and material development as the continuation of biological evolution by other means.

In my view this is a clear manifestation of the principle of the least action in practice

the still missing pieces (some of them are principles of very general nature, commented on in the previous sections,

using also some general principles of cellular automata andnk landscapes. It has been used for instance by some researchers of the Maastricht evolutionary school of economics (MERIT),

besides the improvements in the computational methods, is to incorporate in the simulations some of the general evolutionary principles that were outlined in the present paper,

and must be viewed as the enduring search for bypasses (shortcuts) obeying the general physical principle of the least action;

Econ. 61 (2007) 115 128.24 J. Forrester, Principles of Systems, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA, 1968.25 J. D. Sterman, Business Dynamics:

elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

and to disclose some principles by which scenario processes can inspire innovation. Today's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment and poverty go beyond economic

i e. new scientific or technological principles, but rather as a nonlinear process of learning 36.

and sub-section 4. 2. 3 Backcasting from principles. 4. 2. 1. Framing boundaries A first group of scenario practice is characterized by a focus on framing boundaries.

Backcasting from principles A third group of practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from principles.

The principles can be seen as indirect and implicit representations of the future. The future plays the role of the time needed to introduce the necessary changes to comply with the envisaged principles.

The concept of change is an implicit part of the scenarios developed in backcasting from principles

but the focus is less on delineating the range of possible futures and more on a preferable future vision.

Principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios will require conditions for collaboration. Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.

(what) Framing boundaries Shaped by possibility Extreme to inform the middle Eventuality Backcasting from targets Shaped by probability S&t Roadmaps Predictive Backcasting from principles Shaped by preference The natural step Visionary Empowering stakeholders (who) Expert

and our recommendations should be seen as‘design principles'.'Hence, the benefits from combining techniques for each of the groups become also clear from a theoretical point of view

and backcasting from principles can strongly enhance practice by enhancing representation. We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.

For each cluster, a fictive vision was developed by the project consortium by way of amplification using the three principles Transfer, Generalisation,

e g. what if active users involvement in innovation processes would become the default Radicalisation of the principle...

The INFU visions gave rise to fundamental discussions among stakeholders regarding possible cultural transitions, new economic principles,

new principles organising resource flows, different notions of learning, newworking patterns and differentmodes of democratic governance.

For example, universities find grand challenges difficult to use as an organisational principle both because of their interdisciplinary nature

What is clear is that such efforts are needed to at once provide more consistent and robust design principles to guide the matching of tools to tasks

It almost seems as though there is a guiding principle a la‘‘We'll figure it out as we go we can always fix things

In this paper, the authors develop four principles for the design and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience of designing

The first principle is interconnected understanding innovation systems. This principle ensures that participants position the foresight exercise and their own activities in a global context.

The second principle is responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures. This principle strengthens commitment and encourages learning and creative problem solving.

The third principle is capacity to reconfigure international networks This principle is about taking advantage of existing organisational structures

and facilitates timely and efficient mobilisation of stakeholder communities. The fourth and last principle is‘glocal'impact orientation.

This principle ensures that foresight activities are connected to both local and international decision-making structures. Overall, due to the heterogeneity of global projects, all four principles must also be implemented in keeping with a scalable design approach. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

All rights reserved.**Corresponding author. Tel.:++55 6133661516. E-mail addresses: cristianocagnin@gmail. com (C. Cagnin), totti. konnola@impetusolutions. com (T. Ko nno la.

Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e: w ww. elsevier. co m/loc ate/fu tu r es 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.007 practice of the design and management of international foresight processes.

Four principles for global foresight design and management are identified. The ways in which these have been dealt with in practice are outlined in Section 3 on the basis of a case study,

The authors develop four principles that they believe should be taken into account when designing and managing an international foresight undertaking.

Our contention is that these design requirements can be met on the basis of four guiding principles for global foresight.

These principles build on the international foresight literature and our experiences with a global foresight exercise that is described in Section 3. The four principles are:

Understanding interconnected innovation systems. Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures. Capacity to reconfigure international networks, and a‘glocal'impact orientation. 2. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems Before starting any foresight venture is important to have a clear idea of the system being analysed

and an edited book. 4. Revisiting the principles for global foresight The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise

Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.

Further lessons learned are presented below according to the four principles which ought to be considered when designing and managing an international foresight exercise. 4. 1. Understanding interconnected innovation systems In the IMS2020 project the understanding of the global system of sub-systems was attained by mapping scientific literature,

Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation

The identification of four principles for global foresight design and management, and the ways in which these have been dealt with in practice,

It also shows that it is beneficial to have all these principles embedded in the design of a foresight exercise

and influenced the increased emphasis on principles such as connectedness, interaction and knowledge sharing in R&d and innovation management.

Although the principles underlying the open innovation concept have been subjected to critical analyses, which designated it as‘old wine in new bottles'2,

principles of the Cyclic Innovation Model are (1) that innovating is predominantly a cyclic interaction between different actors who exchange knowledge

and Popper (2007) defined six principles to distinguish FTA from other policy-support techniqques future-orientation, participation, evidencebassed multidisciplinarity, coordinated mobilisation of people and resources,

The principles proposed by Keenan and Popper can be used as strict selection criteria to define

and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,

%the‘bottoomup'principle of support. The projects to be subsidized are selected by committees of experts that evaluate the applications by some criteria of excellence.

The principle of indirect R&d support of good projeccts which are proposed jointly by a private

The principle of indirect R&d support of good projects, which are proposed jointly by a private

and apply The principle of indirect R&d support of good projects, which are proposed jointly by a private

based mainly on the‘bottom-up'principle of support. So-called futureorieente technologies such as biotechnology (3. 6%of projects, 4. 5%of subsidies) and nanotechnology (5. 7%of projects, 3. 8%of subsidies) do not seem to have been promoted particularly.

The‘bottom-up'principle applied by the CTI for allocating funds seems to be quite effective.

All this is also in accordance with the general principles of The swiss technology policy tending to be‘non-activist',providiin primarily for the improvement of framework condittion for private innovation activities.

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