Challenge

Challenge (804)
Grand challenge (311)
Long-term challenge (6)
Main challenge (8)
Managerial challenge (5)
Methodological challenge (11)
New challenge (18)
Particular challenge (7)

Synopsis: Challenge:

Introduction New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis The 2004 EU US seminarb Fabiana Scapolo European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

and raises a challenge for the FTA COMMUNITY. The general consensus in the session was that FTA is a driver

and thereby encouraging widespread innovation in organisational responses to the challenges of the future. 6. Importing ideas As might be expected of a session dealing with new ideas on FTA there was a wide diversity of suggestions and issues presented.

and challenges related to methods and approaches to improve the value and utility of FTA. Among the methodological issues that could be tackled to improve the FTA field

and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Foresight; Technology foresight;

which leads us to highlighting some of the methodological challenges that need to be tackled in the future. To us this linkage of theory and practice is really the essence of the paper:

The even more traditional technology foresight standpoint developed from a more linear understanding of innovation does handle many of the challenges we discuss excellently (using best expert knowledge,

Ideally all scenarios should present an interesting mix of challenges, rather than being good or bad. 27 An external drivers'workshop is performed in a structured brainstorming format where participants first get to upload their ideas on drivers.

identification of challenges associated with each framework scenario The challenges opportunities and threats are what connect the framework scenarios with the addressee's area of responsibility.

assessment and methodological challenges In a nutshell, we see Adaptive foresight as a promising attempt to circumvent the aforementioned Collingridge Dilemma.

Therefore, one of the challenges is to merge a methodological approach emphasising structural uncertainty with a real option analysis without the necessity of an optimal market.

Specifically, we report experiences froma recent consultation process that was organized withinwoodwisdom-Net (ERA NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new

not much attention has been devoted the challenges of coordinating foresight activities at the international level 3. Apart from explicitly initiated local,

ERA NET activities pose several cooperation challenges. Because the participating funding organizations have evolved through path-dependent processes that reflect the characteristics of their respective national innovation systems,

The organization of international consultation processes entails major challenges, too. From the administrative perspective, the geographical distances between participants from many countries make it impossible to organize participatory workshops for them all:

and taken forward to another level of analysis. A challenge in using the Internet as a platform for structured deliberative consultation processes is that such processes are new to many participants.

Even funding organizations are faced with a learning challenges, because bottom up processes differ considerably from top down planning processes in which funding organizations are in a position to control the agenda:

which may cause challenges for the regulatory framework and the regulatory bodies. Second, survey approaches are displayed which enable regulatory bodies to identify future needs for regulations.

The crucial difference of our understanding of regulatory foresight is the main focus on the challenges for the regulatory regimes,

often pose challenges for the existing regulatory framework, or call for the creation of new regulatory frameworks. Changes and dynamics in science and technology can be identified

Since research activities only being performed in basic research are less likely to create challenges for the regulatory framework in the near or mid-term future

Since there are numerous regulatory challenges triggered by the dynamics in science and technology one has to differentiate the analysis in those fields of high dynamics.

Regulatory challenges in the sense of controlling dominant players can be detected by calculating concentration indices of patent applications.

This procedure allows a rough assessment of the possible regulatory challenges caused by the dynamics in science

and changes in existing regulations or new regulations, on the other hand, underlines that the former can in general be used to determine possible challenges for the regulatory framework in the future.

and especially technology indicators are a possible source to detect challenges for the regulatory framework in the future. However this is a rather new approach,

However, the methodological challenge is to meet the adequate level of specification and differentiation of the technology indicators,

in order to be able to provide lists of challenges and areas for future regulatory action. General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology:

The main advantage of surveys is that they allow the consideration of very specific regulatory challenges in the future,

A further challenge regarding the sampling is the involvement of the citizens, which is required to detect fields where regulations can help to increase the acceptance of future technologies and innovative products.

since surveying regulatory issues represents a special challenge. For the development of scenarios on the future role of regulation, information about the various regulatory options has to be collected.

This much more complex community of experts is also a challenge for designing the Delphi survey questionnaire.

These are challenges for current strategic technology intelligence and forward-looking assessment tools. This is especially the case for the recent European Networks of Excellence

These aims pose tremendous managerial challenges: Noes have to combine‘vertical'or bottom-up management of a portfolio of research projects with‘horizontal'stimulation of science-to-industry innovation chains.

Besides the challenge of integrating many components and devices, a more general challenge is how to bridge technology research with start-ups

The next step of our project was to focus more intently on the second management issue that of innovation chains. 5. MPM-2 innovation chain dynamics Referring to the two management challenges of Frontiers,

The second challenge for Frontiers, that of stimulation of relevant innovation chains, is the subject of this section.

and challenges for progressing down the number of possible options. The two aims of the workshop were:

From the interviews and the work already done on MPM-1 we identified the central bubble in Fig. 2 as the greatest challenge to overcome for cell-on-a-chip (and lab-on-a-chip more generally.

cf Fig. 4. The MPM scaffold allowed organizational challenges and technical challenges to be placed side by side with the goal of prospecting innovation chains.

In this case we left the technical steps in the chain as part of the axis whilst the content of the map focused on organizational arrangements and roles of actors at different stages of the chain.

We overlaid on top of the chains the challenges and hurdles linked with each chain. On this basis the chains were evaluated.

For innovation chain 3 this is indeed a challenge. For innovation 4 however this can be handled if there is one system integrator

by contrasting the hype surrounding particular paths with the kinds of path-typical challenges that can be anticipated.

Change 71 (1 2)( 2004) 161 185.23 G. Spinardi, R. Williams, The Governance Challenges of Breakthrough Science and Technology, in:

U. Fiedeler, Assessing Emerging technologies Methodical Challenges and the Case of Nanotechnologies, EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.

the social-constructivist challenge, Berlin, 5th and 6th september (2005. 32 A. Rip, D. K. R. Robinson, Socio-technical paths as a multilevel phenomenon, exemplified in the domain of nanotechnology,

His current Phd research focuses on challenges for governance and management relating to the dynamics of emerging nanotechnologies,

Increasing creativity, knowledge diffusion and absorption Facilitate thinking out of the box Development of new ways of thinking Challenge mindsets Creating a language

a number of trends or challenges are international in their very nature, while the legal competences to set policies are with the national or (sub-national) regional governments.

so as to join forces when facing these challenges and thus find (and fund) more appropriate answers. 4 Moreover,

tackle societal challenges, promote cohesion and enhance competitiveness Excessive emphasis on enhancing competitiveness Co-ordination of policies Intense and successful policy co-ordination among regions,

some (minimal) research efforts to tackle social challenges stemming from the widening gaps between flourishing and laggard EU regions Mobility of researchers, university staff and students Two-way traffic:

Current Trends and Challenges for the Near future, Final Report, EC DG Research Unit RTD-K. 2 october, 2002.8 LERU, Universities and Innovation:

the Challenge for Europe, League of European research Universities, November, 2006.9 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, The Higher education sector and Its Role in Research:

The European Challenge, HLEG report, DG Research, Office for Official Publications of the European communities, Luxembourg, 2005.24 OECD, Frascati Manual:

Policy 30 (3)( 2001) 509 532.36 B. Kehm, Governance and Strategy, Presentation at a Workshop on Driving forces and Challenges for the European University, Brussels, March 23 24 2006.37

The challenge of joining forces to develop more robust future-oriented support to decision making has been addressed in the series of International Seville FTA Conference organized by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies, one of the Joint research Centers

Using contemporary examples associated with the challenges of nanotechnology, they develop the case for ensuring that foresight offers a democratic rather than just a technocratic input to the future and to the policy processes

sustainable imaginative futures that can enable our species to apply its intuitive ingenuity to face the challenges of today and those anticipated over the horizon:

It is the newest and most novel of technologies which presents the greatest challenges for technological forecasting.

The challenge of the technology analyst is to usefully structure this information to anticipate change. The technology designer has a similar challenge in exploring new, heretofore unforeseen, combinations of new technologies.

The network data in the raw is not useful for this purpose. A structured representation of technology is needed for multiple reasons:

One challenge to classification revealed by Figs. 5 and 6 is the placement of the various web browsers.

The standard graphical user interface offered by web pages is a challenge to navigate for people who are sighted not,

The primary challenge to the position questions the status of empiricismas a certain route to knowledge.

Received 11 march 2008 Received in revised form 6 april 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide.

and strategic planning in infrastructure sectors. 2. Breaking up path dependencies in strategic infrastructure planning 2. 1. Characteristics of infrastructure sectors Infrastructures represent a specific challenge to strategic planning methods.

Given that challenges are increasing in infrastructure sectors worldwide, a more elaborate and open approach to strategic planning seems very timely. 2. 2. Foresight supporting infrastructure planning Foresight methods have been developed over the past decades to explicitly address substantial uncertainties in technology development.

we may state that the RIF process helped decision makers to develop a broader and deeper understanding of the challenges,

it did lead to a more encompassing understanding of the challenges, interests, options and timing aspects of a conjointly favorable course of action could be elaborated.

An Investigation into the Long-term challenges and Opportunities for the UK's Strategic Highway Network, Highway Agency for England, London, 2003.42 Office of Science and Technology, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, Foresight Directorate

but also increase the challenges of communication and cooperation. Creating a wider knowledge base and learning across disciplines is,

and these in turn guide the company on how to deal with the identified challenge: act, prepare or monitor.

A major challenge is, however, to be able to manage a multiplicity of the uncertain knowledge sources.

The challenge of making a bridge between foresight and technical risk analysis methods lies perhaps mostly on people's experience of using different methods in these two parallel traditions.

In INNORISK project the challenge has somehow been easier probably because the risk assessment methods applied have been in a more general and not so detailed level.

These notions open many challenges where further studies may be beneficial. In practice to succeed to build the solid bridge between the foresight

A User-friendly Approach, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, New york, 1991.27 E. Hollnagel, Resilience the challenge of the unstable, in:

and challenges that may give new vitality to futures research. Certainly as they and other directions are explored the field will gain new thinking

and challenges associated with their use for national policy purposes. The criticism is related to the ways data

In technology barometer this challenge is solved by dividing the exercise first into a comparison of the performance of the Finnish innovation system with selected nations on a basis of available international indicators

and challenges in constructing composite indicators (Appendix A presents examples of composite indicators). In the technology barometer the computational procedure is as follows.

due especially to the foreseeable challenges posed by globalization. The question considered are, for example, what will be the content of knowledge-intensive jobs retained by Finland in future

However, new kinds of challenges were also emerging in the questionnaire study, as indicated also by the need for the skills in critical interactive media reading.

instantly updated media such as the Internet and popular TV programmes of science and technology. 4. Conclusions Despite the inevitable methodological challenges,

The further development of barometer to respond to the above mentioned challenges is already in process.

In order to respond to the systemic challenges of the innovation policy environment, there is also a need to increase the proactive and future-oriented elements in technology barometer.

in order to grasp and understand the wider systemic challenges of the innovation practices. One new approach to be integrated in the barometer structure in the future can be oriented the future concept of impact assessment

in order to address the critical challenges of the future. This future field needs a new dimension in research on systemic change,

The challenge for the BMBF Foresight process from 2009 onwards was the design of concrete strategies to address some of the topics identified.

in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges. Symbolic function: indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information.

which makes it more apt to address long-term challenges. In the BMBF Foresight process, an impact is expected on the interdisciplinary

a particular challenge is to ensure impact beyond the general elections: in 2009, general elections will be held in Germany.

In addition, survey instruments in workshop settings are useful tools to measure how different types of scenarios can affect decision makers'understanding of the challenges they face and preferences for response options 27.

and stakeholders of a California water agency and measured participants'increasing understanding of the challenges posed by climate change

and changes in their views on how best to respond to these challenges 27. Views on climate change changed,

using scenarios to address the challenges facing firms can easily fail for another reason: managers can reject the scenarios

However, scenario users in the public sector can face more difficult challenges in establishing the client

however, the critical challenge. Workshop participants were much more cautious in attributing relevance and success here.

from defining its purpose to implementing the outcome then becomes a major challenge. 1. 2. The case for Inclusive foresight Widening the scope of consultation and making Foresight into a much wider social process,

In this sense, the issue of inclusivity is not new. 1. 3. Some challenges to Inclusive foresight Creation of trust between all the parties involved is one of the major requirements of an effective Foresight programme, especially between the‘expert'community and the general public,

and means of ameliorating it as it evolves Challenge claims to knowledge, rationality or‘improvement'of a situation that rely on hidden boundary judgments

In the field of nanotechnology these challenges are compounded further due to the early stage of nano developments

not only face the general challenge of prospecting possible pathways for innovation they also are challenged to prospect the changing environments

& Social Change 1. 1. Anticipatory coordination for the responsible development of nanotechnology These general challenges become very specific in the case of nanoscience and nanotechnology.

The challenge then is how to be aware of the underlying forces shaping this reconfiguration.

but transition into the clinic became fraught with many other challenges related to user needs and user practices.

Science and Citizens, Globalization and the Challenge of Engagement, Zed Books, London, 2003.32 B. Laurent, Engaging the public in nanotechnology?

His Phd manuscript focuses on challenges for putting Constructive TA type approaches into practice, through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.

and the challenges faced by their strategy activities. The authors analyse the strategy processes of the Danish technical research council

and new challenges faced by such organisations. Also that a more formal use of foresight elements could improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.

Jenssen discusses the challenges of inclusivity in a participative foresight process in terms of achieving genuinely democratic decision making.

Business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges. Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,

and programmes and the challenges faced by their strategy activities. We analysed the strategy processes of two organisations:

and new challenges faced by the research councils. We also argue that a more formal use of foresight elements might improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.

and analyses the strategy processes in national research councils and research programmes and the challenges that they are facing.

and new challenges faced by research councils. Furthermore, it is the aim to investigate if more formal use of foresight elements might improve strategic consideration by research councils

and for meeting the challenges faced by society, such as those concerning health, energy supply and the environment.

Hence, foresight challenges traditional-thinking (or Mode 1-oriented) research communities in at least two ways. First, foresight exercises include future societal and economic needs and possibilities in the setting of priorities.

and current challenges faced by these institutions. First, foresight exercises that take national policies into account as a boundary condition are easier to implement than those challenging national policies.

Thus, the challenge for Luxembourg lies not in distributing limited funds among its existing science community.

So the FNR has faced the challenge of identifying‘appropriate'programmes that will not only attract sufficient high-quality proposals from Luxembourg scientists

and therefore involves a process with similar challenges to those just described. This is often the moment

Workshop Exploratory Workshop‘Long list'of research domains Initial assessment Selection of broad research fields Stakeholder workshops No formal input General Challenges for Luxembourg Expert workshops per field SWOT Analysis Initial

business and research were invited to the Stakeholderworkshop with the aim of identifying the main challenges facing Luxembourg over the coming decade.

and to identify important implementation issues. 5. Conduct of FNR Foresight Foresight exercises tend to face a number of generic challenges in their conduct

Among these challenges are need the to keep within time and budget; to open up the process to genuinely new perspectives;

Afewof these challenges are touched upon in this paper, but for the most part, we have sought to deliberately focus upon those that we feel have been more unique to Luxembourg.

and referring back to challenges identified in the stakeholder workshop. This process led to the selection and reformulation of the research topics into‘candidates'for national research priorities.

Along with a shift in approach came a host of new challenges that typically characterise group work.

Many of the challenges are the same, though perhaps exaggerated in some respects by the system's small scale.

The objectives, challenges and fields for action to be tackled in order to reach this position were translated into a set of concrete measures, some

At the same time, new challenges were identified that have to be tackled in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation,

but also a set of concrete recommendations that formed the basis for the specification of main objectives, challenges,

challenges and key fields of action 4. 1. Identifying ambitious objectives One of the goals of the strategy process was to identify targets

6) Rate of female researchers in the business sector is to increase by 100 per cent. 4. 2. Five main challenges A cross-panel analysis revealed five main challenges that would need to be tackled until 2015

providing space and occasions for public discussion about RTI, its opportunities and challenges. 4) Accelerating the dynamics in RTI by providing adequate infrastructure.

Addressing the challenges Within its jurisdiction, the City of Vienna can provide stimuli for achieving the identified goals.

challenges and measures identified during the strategic process‘Wien denkt Zukunft, 'several concrete proposals for new projects or initiatives were developed in the five fields of action.

it will be one of the great challenges of the following years whether at least some of the participatory elements and coordination processes among municipal departments can be established on a permanent basis. Monitoring the implementation of the strategy is planned to be an element of this,

As part of the process a jointly developed view of the main future objectives, challenges and key areas of action was agreed upon, combining elements of a joint vision.

Empirically, the case at hand illustrates the challenges posed by stakeholder participation based on the concept of‘Inclusive foresight'.

and limits of inclusive foresight in municipal planning processes and expounds the challenges of our contemporary understanding of communicative planning tools as power instruments (Pløger 2002).

This case illustrates thus not only challenges of inclusive foresight taken up by Loveridge and Street (2005) but also much wider problems regarding good governance

The challenge of foresight methods and participatory processes for governance, however, is the prevailing clear distinction between areas of governance,

This paper is a contribution to the discussion about the relationship between foresight and the democratic challenges of good governance and long-term planning.

new challenges. Paper presented at EU US seminar: the role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities, 13 14 may 2002, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.

This poses an additional challenge to be overcome in implementing empirically informed technology management. Of course many do use empirical information in S&t arenas.

specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and

and the Finnish innovation Fund (Sitra) has sought to promote a constructive dialogue on impending societal challenges by establishing a So-called future Forum.

This exercise involved new challenges for the collaboration of these funding agencies, because they had had engaged not in joint consultative foresight activities except within specific research programs (see, e g.

Indeed, although the tight schedule of Finnsight was a challenge for the process design, this schedule was justified

even if this may cause a certain degree of unpredictability and cause management challenges. In contrast, exclusive stakeholder engagement refers to expressly controlled stakeholder participation that may be driven,

Introduction From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is derived a term from a collective description given to the range of technology-oriented forecasting methods and practices by a group of futures researchers and practitioners

finding new applications in aligning actors around societal challenges (as described by Ko nno la et al.)

Among FTA TOOLS foresight is posited as the most suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.

and the societal challenges which ensue. They call for a better understanding of issues to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY

Saritas and Smith invited attendees to answer a number of questions about shaping forces, sources of change and their impacts, particularly in terms of new challenges and opportunities.

These mapped a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach in many countries across a wide range of challenges.

In addition the conference aims to debate the use of horizon scanning as a process that enables policy to explore actively emerging challenges

and trends and how these address or are related to the grand challenges faced by societies today and in the future.

The pressing need to mobilise resources around societal challenges exposes the limitations of technocratic approaches

and the long wave, Futures 34 (3 4 april 2002) 317 336.5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU-US seminar, Technological forecasting

a pressing and long-term challenge, Futures 41 (2009) 67 70.8 I. Miles, From futures to foresight, in:

Experiences from the vertical R&i coordination between local, regional and (international levels provide insights into the challenges of managing multilayered innovation systems 23.

however, decrease the diversity of options that could challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs 29

Its Strategic research Agenda is based on a set of challenges and goals that was developed with a broad range of stakeholders including consumer and environmental organisations (Plants for the Future 2005).

and contribute to address the challenge we face regarding both the ERA and Foresight. Acknowledgements This paper is based on a workshop organised by the JRC-IPTS European foresight Action at Seville, Spain, June 2008.

For the community which has developed them the challenge is to ensure that their standards of rigour

Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making§T. Ko nno la A f. Scapolo b, 1, P. Desruelle c, 2, R. Mud, 3 a Impetu Solutions

forecasting and technology assessment approaches foresight is perhaps the most comprehensive one suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.

when the major societal challenges are dealt with. The locus of foresight activities has tended to shift from positivist

Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society,

The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process

and elaborated for the purposes to characterise foresight projects conducted around the world in relation with major societal challenges.

In view of societal challenges, there is a need to provide outcomes to support targeted decision making situations.

and codify information that allow a better understanding of the future drivers and challenges, develop visions,

Addressing major societal challenges such as security, sustainability and information society issues requires typically many types of participants as well as different kinds of methods to adapt to the interests

and extensive elements are present. 3. Empirical findings on foresight projects addressing societal challenges 3. 1. Introduction Major societal challenges have been addressed by the foresight community for already several decades.

/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 254 Table 1 Selected foresight projects addressing societal challenges. Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario

Consensual The outputs drove discussions of national security challenges to provide input into capabilities needed to meet these challenges.

Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research Areag 21 Informative Identification and SWOT analysis of socio-techno-economic trends, drivers and challenges;

futures challenges, applications and priorities for developing the information society in the EU. Instrumental Outputs contributed to prepare the FP7 (Framework programme) ICT programme.

Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.

While the authors consider diverse approaches valuable in the realm of foresight to address societal challenges, for the purposes of this paper,

This challenge was dealt with in the brainstorming workshops, intensive e-mail communication, commenting and co-writing.

In the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight the major challenge was to create shared understandings on future hydrogen-based energy systems between different stakeholder groups representing five different countries.

The outputs were used to drive the interdepartmental discussions of challenges to Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada (PSEPC),

the capabilities needed to meet the challenges, and how S&t foresight and strategic S&t investments in the new Centre for Security Science could help to acquire those capabilities.

and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.

Most of the projects we analysed have important informative functions in sense that they aim to provide new knowledge for better understanding of issues and of their future implications and challenges.

/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 263 foresight is ever more important to position foresight as one of the key supporting tools for policy-making to anticipate how major societal challenges ahead can be addressed such as those tackled in this paper, e g. security, sustainability and information society challenges.

Furthermore, in order to better address major societal challenges with foresight and other FTA ACTIVITIES we consider that another relevant future avenue might be to enhance the international foresight collaboration in terms of exchange of experiences and the implementation of common foresight projects.

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