This knowledge management has to confront the challenges created by FTA's call for engagement across different disciplines, research traditions,
and this knowledge management has to confront the challenges created by FTA's call for engagement across different
and the methodological challenges, and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: Annele. Eerola@vtt. fi (A. Eerola), Ian. Miles@mbs. ac. uk (I. Miles.
that involve major challenges, and so on. Unfortunately, some valuable ideas may be selected out as being too challenging sometimes they are postponed for later analysis,
Individual actors in FTA organise information in ways that are relevant to their purposes practical problems, conceptual challenges,()TD$FIG Knowledge Information Knowledge Socialisation:
When the FTA PROCESS involves a wide range of key actors in the case of the Nordic H2 energy foresight coming from several countries there are special challenges confronted in shared knowledge creation (even in agreeing upon which of Bell's‘‘posits''to explore
This will pose considerable challenges for KM: not only will much of the relevant insight be generated on a bottom-up basis,
A. Geldart, The social and economic challenges of nanotechnology, Swindon Economic and Social science Research council, 2003 (available at:
The challenge to the conventional mantra that economic not human, development, depends on the advancement of science
Firms will need to focus on themes like creativity, breakthrough innovation, entrepreneurial solutions to great challenges, like pandemics and climate change,
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
and prepare responses to challenges which have arisen due to: 1. Rapid and accelerating technological progress in pervasive fields such as microelectronics, ICTS, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells and nanotechnologies. 2. Increased financial, trade and investment
flows. 3. New business models for the design, production, distribution, retail and management of products and services. 4. Responses to the challenge of sustainability and changes in demography, in consumer behaviours and in social values,
One of the main challenges for the FTA COMMUNITY is to support such a shift by embedding forward-looking participatory practices into strategic decision making. 8. Conclusions:
particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities? Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,
which can then create a new basis for additional challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders may not have considered previously
These are described both in terms of challenges and potential opportunities for civilization. Fig. 5 illustrates the frequency distribution of trends
Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
The biggest challenge is to achieve and demonstrate a greater impact of fta studies. Otherwise the views of the possible futures that await us may continue to go largely unheard and unheeded
we need to anticipate the big challenges we are going to face. Decision-makers need a global vision of the future that addresses financial structures, climate change, poverty, etc''.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
It can present a particular challenge to those with responsibilities to identify, manage and minimise risk within a framework that seeks to eliminate uncertainty,
Hence a major challenge for the next generation of FTA is to shift the emphasis of training from capacity building in performing FTA
The greatest challenges may be in developing mechanisms to reach out to the other communities professionally engaged with the future
field and the major challenges it faces. The context is favourable. Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
There is a widespread recognition of the need to introduce into the processes of government and corporate decision-making a much stronger orientation,
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims
and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference,
only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges. Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives
Keywords Future-oriented technology analysis, FTA, Grand challenges, Forward looking activities T oday's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment go beyond current national policies.
Grand challenges are interrelated usually and have an effect on different scales ranging from global to local.
and systemic transformations in a diversity of application fields responding to grand challenges. The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
adapt and respond pro-actively to grand challenges. In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning.
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields
and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges. About the authors Vicente Carabias, who has a MSC in Environmental sciences from ETHZ in 1996,
His professional challenge is connecting science and policy. On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment,
At the same time, the transport system is confronted with many challenges that reduce economic vitality and quality of life such as climate change, the emission of pollutants and noises, accidents, congestion;
-105. von Schomberg, R. 2005),‘The precautionary principle and its normative challenges'',in Fisher, E.,Jones, J. and von Schomberg, R. Eds), The Precautionary principle and Public policy Decision making, Edward
Nantero has taken up this challenge since 2000. Subsequent results in basic research as well as from Nantero have reinforced the expectations.
and tools to meet the coming challenges. Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.
because it is a key challenge for contemporary societies, and also because it may induce disruptive transformations in the urban planning value chain.
The big challenge is to satisfy multiple and diverse social demands without putting the sustainability principles at risk.
Suggested strategies for Scenario A. The green paradigm scenario offers a favourable context to successfully tackle the major challenges such as fighting climate change
In brief, Spain faces a major challenge to change social and cultural behaviour towards sustainable development. Overcoming this challenge will mean undertaking significant changes in day-to-day habits,
as well as in governance and business models. The second set of findings shows the advisability of reinforcing foresight tools to make them more attractive and reliable for urban planners.
and challenges that this entails, indicating paths for future research. Originality/value Future-oriented legal studies are rare and,
‘‘What do you see as the most significant challenges for the development of the law within your track (and/or in relation to other tracks?
and challenges of using FTA in law. Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law,
The following section summarises some of the most pressing challenges and problems that the interaction between FTA and Law may bring about,
Another important challenge regarding the application of fta to Law concerns the adequate role and use of automated tools of data processing and mining in law making
(and challenge) of how to keep FTA and Law distinct and separated. An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,
and addressing the challenges that Law needs to cope with in terms of research, enforcement and legislative making.
and challenges regarding the application of fta to Law that must be taken into account. As a final note,
but we must be aware of the inherent limitations and challenges. In effect, and this applies also to Law,
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
Challenges and Opportunities, Springer, Berlin. Ratcliffe, J. 2008), Intelligence-led Policing, Willan, Cullompton. Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
Assessing emerging technologies Methodological challenges and the case of nanotechnologies Torsten Fleischer*,Michael Decker, Ulrich Fiedeler Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS), Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh, P. O. B
This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Nanotechnology 1. Introduction Emerging technologies pose considerable challenges for dclassicalt technology assessment (TA. If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology,
It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology. Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly.
This holds considerable methodological challenges with respect to analysis and assessment for all emerging technologies but especially for emerging enabling technologies.
It is perhaps not ill-founded to state that the treatment of central challenges of the sustainability discussion,
and methodical approaches of technology assessment for sustainability assessments of technology 2. The requirements on sustainability assessments and their consideration in decision-making represent until now unknown degree of methodical challenges even with regard to very ambitious concepts of technology assessment,
Technology assessment of nanotechnology has to deal with several methodological challenges: First of all: Up to now it is blurred quite what in detail should be considered as dnanotechnologyt and what not.
In short, the methodical challenge for our program is to develop roadmaps that combine the disaggregation level of a product roadmap with the timeframe and the inherent uncertainties of strategic roadmaps for branches or industries.
Especially this exercise is expected to deliver more knowledgeable and thus reliable perspectives about the interdependences between scientific and technological developments, internal and external challenges and products or applications than many other approaches.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating
Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating
8 september 2012,729 734 EDITORIAL Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural
and tackle Grand challenges. This problem-oriented approach may have been one of the reasons for a further increase in the number of submitted abstracts and participants.
what the often proclaimed Grand challenges really are and what we exactly have to prepare for. This topic was taken up by Harold Linstone in his keynote speech,
It is these fundamental changes that give rise to the main challenges of today'sworld. His position may differ in many regards from the views expressed in recent political discourses,
which see the main challenges as being rooted in societal rather than scientific-technological developments. Linstone points to the dynamic,
and limitations of applying FTA to cope with the challenges ahead, and at novel FTA APPROACHES to push the frontier of what can be done to better address them.
'building on the argument that existing governnanc structures and organisations need to better adapt to the scale and nature of current Grand challenges.
and tackle societal challenges. First, three contributions explore new avenues of how FTA could be conceived in the future by discussing
and what their potential and limitations Are downloaded in by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 731 addressing Grand challenges.
in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.
whether elderly people will really constitute a Grand challenge, or whether they will become the dominant productive force in the next decades.
and addressing complex challenges. He invites us to think differently about Grand challenges, by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
Future-oriented technology analysis frequently fails to grasp socially and economically important technical developments. Tuomi looks at epistemic and ontological causes for this failure, by introducing the idea of‘ontological unpredictability
NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges. Some common lines of thought seem to emerge around the recognition of fundamental uncertainty
and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.
Stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration of truly Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 733 alternative future developments are called for to be prepared better to address both the existing Grand challenges
‘the challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down the layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing'.
The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005.
Grand societal challenges beyond civilization metamorphosis as intentional evolution, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville.
The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
The challenge of ontological unpredictability can thus be formulated in a simple way: How can we predict the number of cattle or the impact of a new technology,
This creates a challenge for formal modelling. In practice, many future-oriented models are based on time-series data.
An example here is the problem of formulating‘grand societal challenges'.'Typically, such societal challenges are based on extrapolations of historical trends
and thus implicitly assume that historically relevant categories remain important also in the future. For example, ageing may become a‘grand challenge
'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,
elderly people could well become the dominant productive force in the next few decades, instead of a grand challenge.
this role for FTA is discussed further in the next section. 3. Characteristics of FTA as an umbrella activity FTA focuses on the need and potential to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
but when there is talk of‘managing the Earth'for this or that‘grand challenge'(all of which are interconnected
These are immense challenges in themselves and to the notion of expertise in breadth and depth that facilitates appreciation.
challenges and opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular situation More than future-oriented research Normative combining socio-techno-economic feasibility and scientific possibility to yield desirable outcomes
is the notion of‘grand challenges'.'In a sense, these are a throwback to the 1970's debates about the world problematique
The interdependence of the silos of‘grand challenges'adds dimensions that were appreciated in the 1970's
and implementation Reconfiguring the policy system Making the policy system more apt to address long-term challenges Symbolic function Indicating to the public that policy is based on rational Information source:
‘excessive prioritizing may decrease the diversity of options that challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs'.
practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
It therefore decided to use scenarios as its basic methodology for tackling the challenge of investigating the major driving forces
and thereby the emphasis on such challenges (and boundary uncertainty) is quite inferior. Conclusions In this paper
Opportunities and challenges. Academy of Management Journal 50, no. 1: 25 32. Fahey, L, . and R. Randall. 1998.
in order to steer solutions to emerging challenges through an inclusive approach as well as further experimentation and learning, helping
sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52.
The interrelatedness poses specific challenges for an organisation striving to navigate in this landscape. Navigation calls for at least two kinds of strategic capabilities:
1) the future development options in the context of anticipated and unknown challenges,(2) the past decisions that affect the organisation either explicitly or implicitly,
This workshop was dedicated to identifying opportunities and challenges for service research in the long term; and to link, scale,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
when responding to the so-called‘grand challenges',such as climate change or global resource scarcity. For companies and organisations alike, tackling these kinds of complex challenges,
either from the perspective of business or governance, requires integration of competencies over the traditional sectoral boundaries.
would be especially beneficial in tackling these kinds of systemic challenges. In general, it could be stated that RTOS, companies,
btechnology Policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools.
'However, the highly uncertain dynamics of NESTS pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. Capturing and exploring multiple potential innovation pathways show considerable promise as a way of informing technology management and research policy.
Such technology opportunitiie analysis (Porter et al. 1994) for NESTS poses notable challenges. FTA increasingly includes science-based technologies
scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges. The points of the studies are diversified interdisciplinary
and technology to contribute toward addressing global or national challenges. In the Fourth Basic Plan (Government of Japan
which are expected to be the main players for addressing global or national challenges through innovation in the future.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
B Delphi provides technological perspectives for the challenges; B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development
and the required social conditions toward addressing the challenges; and B workshop provides tangible examples of the challenges on a regional scale as well as the technological and social conditions involved.
The approach is characterized from two aspects: 1. interdisciplinary or diversified discussion; and 2. the mission-oriented or problem-solving approach.
Figure 1 Overview of the 9th Foresight PAGE 8 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 2. 1 Setting global or national challenges The first step of the exercise
the 9th Foresight exercise narrowed down the course of actions, in terms of scientific and technological challenges, into the following four global or national challenges:
and technology from the viewpoint of‘‘what should be done from now on''to resolve global or national challenges,
Twelve groups of experts were set up under the challenges. They set the scenario themes had extensive and interdisciplinary discussions,
and technology that achieve innovation success to resolve challenges in the future. However, investigative studies that are implemented in parallel do not give a comprehensive and panoramic view.
what cooperation and convergence among scientific and technological areas will be required to address four challenges by combining information to draw up the whole picture of future science
Implementation of the studies with loose linkage under common challenges enables combination with consistency. Delphi deals with a variety of areas of science, technology and society,
and technology for addressing the challenges, looking at things holistically. However neither the relationship among events nor the necessary coordination or cooperation among them is mentioned.
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
and technology for realizing innovation for solutions to the challenges. The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
They are regarded as topics that have a closer relationship with solving the challenges. In Figure 3, the Delphi topics for each scenario are classified in decreasing order of score.
and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
and Table I Areas of key importance for the resolution of four challenges ID Key areas Energy,
and contribute to the solution of four challenges directly or indirectly. The result indicates two potentialities:
are expected to have a great effect in solving four challenges. Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.
or national challenges goes far beyond the border of research and development in a single discipline, and necessarily involves collaboration across disciplines.
and workshop in consideration of the four global or national challenges. They provided information about scientific and technological possibilities
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
It is essential to reach a common understanding about current challenges, potential future paths and the necessary steps to move forward based on an overall perspective that integrates individual stakeholders'points-of-view.
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
Cagnin and Loveridge (2011) discuss challenges as well as detailed models and processes. They describe how a business can become more and more receptive to foresight results,
because the motivation and the challenges of those dialogues tie in with those of transferring foresight results,
At the same time, diverging interests, opinions and agendas pose challenges to the new and still crystallizing ideas contained in foresight results.
Thus, a basic common understanding amongst political stakeholders of the topic and its challenges is achieved. Well-structured summaries based on desk research help to prepare the discussion
A key result is transparency of the specific challenges of each unit and of the criteria it uses to assess the value of future outcomes of the strategic dialogue.
These typically last about one to one and a half hours and cover the outside view of the expert on the subject to be examined including an assessment of current challenges and success factors.
Step 6 would be an initial workshop aimed at verifying challenges and assumptions, identifying obstacles and key success factors,
the strategic dialogue has overcome the following challenges: B A heterogeneous set of stakeholders within and outside the BMBF with different agendas, value systems, interests and communication practices has been brought together
and its challenges as well as a joint view of the future with potential paths to move forward successfully.
and involve other relevant stakeholders in a wide-ranging dialogue to deal with societal challenges. From the perspective of research policy makers, strategic dialogues provide the missing link to transfer the results of foresight and similar strategy processes into research policy making.
Foresight and‘‘grand challenges''within research and innovation policies Martin Rhisiart Abstract Purpose The paper seeks to discuss how foresight is used to understand the implications of global changes for research and innovation policies.
It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.
innovation and grand challenges. Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.
Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not.
A bottom-up, participatory process produced a broader set of grand challenges. Research limitations/implications The concept of grand challenges is still relatively new.
Practical implications Not all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges. National policies need to take account of grand challenges
whilst continuing to support other research and innovation needs. Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research
and innovation system to assess the implications of new technologies and wider socioeconomic changes (Martin and Johnston, 1999;
Rappert, 1999; Saritas et al. 2007; Georghiou and Cassingena-Harper, 2011. Such approaches are built often into prioritisation exercises,
where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences
the concept of‘‘grand challenges''or‘‘grand societal challenges''.''Foresight has long been used for social purposes.
However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
) The provenance and scope of the grand challenges are discussed in the article, below; they are understood broadly in terms of DOI 10.1108/14636681311310123 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 29-39, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
There has not been a clear distinction between the terms‘‘grand challenges''and‘‘grand societal challenges,
''although‘‘societal''has been used in some of the initiatives to emphasise the social scale and impact of the challenges (European commission DG Research,
) This article will use‘‘grand challenges''as the main term for these developments. This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
It relates the case of foresight or future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) used for research and innovation policy agenda-setting, conducted in Ireland.
was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.
Several issues are addressed that are relevant for those interested in foresight, research and innovation, and grand challenges.
which grand challenges are constructed or interpreted, how research and innovation systems respond to grand challenges, and re-conceiving
or reframing questions for the research and innovation system. The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.
and briefly traces the provenance and meaning of grand challenges. Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,
grand challenges and research responses are presented then in section 4. Finally, some conclusions and implications for research and practice are offered particularly on how foresight addresses the‘‘challenge of grand challenges''in research and innovation systems.
Grand challenges refresh and recast some important questions for Foresight and research and innovation policies. 2. Grand challenges the emergence of a new frame of reference In the public funding of research, there are often tensions between two basic principles:
1. the intrinsic benefits of pure or‘‘blue skies''research; and 2. a more explicitly problem or impact-oriented approach.
In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
it appears that there is now a new type of narrative of grand (societal) challenges. The shift to a larger frame of reference could be attributed in part to the broader sustainability narrative
In this framing, the grand challenges are a manifestation of the extent to which sustainable development has become increasingly embedded politically, in policy terms, and socially.
In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical
The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are: 1. climate change and clean energy;
and 7. global poverty and sustainable development challenges. Within this general backdrop, there emerged a focus on‘‘grand challenges''and within the European union.
Specifically, the issue identified was the effective marshalling of research, technological and innovation funds to support broad goals for Europe.
technological and innovation knowledge geared towards large challenges. It calls on European institutions and Member States to focus European research on the major challenges facing our world.
According to the Lund Declaration: European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well and co-operation builds transparency and trust.
Identifying and responding to Grand challenges should involve stakeholders from both public and private sectors in transparent processes taking into account the global dimension.
The Lund Declaration emphasises importance of problem solving that the‘‘challenges must turn into sustainable solutions in areas such as global warming,
It must tackle the overarching challenge of turning Europe into an eco-efficient economy''.''The Lund Declaration followed the work of an Expert Group Report on the European research area,
which emphasised that it needed to address a series of Grand challenges (European commission DG Research, 2008,
p. 5). The same focus on grand challenges and the increasing shift towards addressing societal needs was identified in the first report of the European research area Board (European commission DG Research, 2009).
A further milestone in the explicit recognition of directing research and innovation resources towards grand challenges came with the publication of a report on the European Technology platforms by DG Research (European commission DG Research, 2010.
and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:
and the research areas that will be required to address the challenges and meet the opportunities''(Project Terms of Reference).
the identification of grand challenges was introduced whilst the exercise was in progress. 3. 3. 1 Phase 1:
I. A further important aspect of this stage was to begin to identify how other countries were responding to global challenges.
timescales 3 Potential disruptive factors trend breakers, accelerators, wild cards 4 Connectivity and contingencies links with other drivers and trends 5 Challenges that this presents
Identifying grand challenges. During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers
and the national context could be cast as (grand challenges for Ireland, which could inform the work of the Research prioritisation Steering Group.
The aim was to synthesise the materials into a collection of 12 (or so) challenges.
The project team devised a way of constructing these challenges and proposed the following approach:
B a challenge has connectivity across two or more drivers or themes at the global level;
B the challenge has a clear Irish national context; and B the challenge has potential for a set of research implications or the potential for applications of research results.
The following structure was used to link the national context, the global drivers and the challenges:
Ireland has/is/needs (national context) but is challenged by/with/to (global drivers). How can Ireland/Can Ireland (the challenge?
3. 3. 4 Phase 4: Final catalogue. The final stage of the project consisted of the production of the final catalogue of drivers and trends.
2 What are the challenges for Ireland that you expect these drivers to raise in the next 10-15 years?
With what impacts and challenges? 3 What are the implications, if any, of these drivers for Ireland's research needs and opportunities?
The final output incorporated the grand challenges identified for Ireland, with emerging implications for the research system. 4. Project results:
from drivers and trends to grand challenges 4. 1 Catalogue of global drivers and trends from the national context The third level catalogue is a substantial volume that analyses global trends and drivers from a‘‘national
and a series of potential research implications added particularly responding to challenges and opportunities presented by the global drivers.
''PAGE 34 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 4. 3 An emerging set of grand challenges for Ireland research needs and implications A set of 12 challenges was provided for consideration
4. The two examples provided in Table V illustrate the breadth of potential research implications that could emerge from the challenges.
within several challenges there was also a clear role for social sciences and humanities. For example, with the recent economic difficulties in Ireland clearly vexing participants in the exercise
the challenge of developing a more resilient societal system was identified, with potential implications around social research on resilience,
middle classes Uncertain results for banking regulation A challenge to liberal democracy models Conflict follows geopolitical shifts Terrorism continues to pose a threat to security A multi-polar governance system Religion
Table V Challenges identified with their potential research implications Examples of challenges identified Potential research implications Energy Ireland is dependent on external sources of energy supplies at present
while renewable energy makes an impact on energy supply The challenge for Ireland is to achieve greater energy security
and engineering and science skills PAGE 36 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The project undertaken provided a national view on grand challenges that had been discussed in other settings.
The results provide an interesting interpretation of grand challenges for the national context. Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.
The concern over sustainable, secure energy (first example featured in Table V) may be regarded as a grand challenge in this vein.
Some of the other grand challenges identified are narrower and appear more specialised. The second example given in Table V developing enabling mechanisms and absorptive capacities for RTDI does not carry the same narrative of a fundamental problem facing Europe and the wider world.
However, through the consultative futures process undertaken, it emerged as a significant(‘‘grand'challenge for the country's research and innovation system.
The participants that were involved in the consultative events recognised the significance of certain drivers (around
for example, energy and other resources) and this was reflected in the construction of grand challenges. In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
In some cases, the diagnosis of the grand challenge in The irish context was more straightforward than the construction of a set of possible responses from the research and innovation system.
One grand challenge that emerged from the confluence of economic and geopolitical drivers and trends was the potential marginalisation of Ireland within multilateral frameworks:
Challenge: Ireland‘‘punches above its weight''in international arenas achieving a strong reputation as an independent country with good governance and respect for its global commitments and partnerships.
it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
For these challenges, it was difficult to conceive of strategic responses based on research and innovation. Even where there is a consensus on grand challenges,
connecting them with niche areas of opportunity and development can be a very difficult task.
and in constructing grand challenges. This was manifested in different ways (including the relationship of Ireland with Europe and the wider world through multilateral frameworks.
First, some of the grand challenges discussed at the European level had much less resonance for Ireland according to the views expressed by participants (e g. security.
Second, Ireland was suggested as a smart, innovative test-bed for new approaches for dealing with global challenges due to its small size and advantages of proximity.
it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,
In the context of several European initiatives to promote approaches to dealing with grand challenges, this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,
particularly in terms of the challenges and opportunities that they presented. During the course of the exercise, the appointed research and consulting team was asked to translate the knowledge generated (global drivers and trends and their national implications) into a set of grand challenges for Ireland.
Although this is not a final assessment of how the project has been used to inform research priorities, there are some important implications for foresight practice in RTDI and grand challenges.
Assessing how the research and innovation systems can address grand challenges can be done through bottom-up approaches. Although it was designed not originally in this way
the foresight exercise undertaken in Ireland became a participatory, bottom-up process that assembled grand challenges by combining knowledge on drives
and trends with national context and insights. The method described in this paper is but one example of how work on grand challenges could be refined
and adapted at a national level. An alternative approach would be to begin by explicitly addressing the grand challenges as they have been defined broadly in several European initiatives
and transpose them to the national context. One potential disadvantage of the latter approach is that it may limit discussions and neglect potentially important national RTDI issues.
and meaning of grand challenges for individual countries. 5. 1 Scale the European versus the small country context European-scale discourse can sometimes unwittingly neglect the specificities of national contexts especially the smaller country contexts.
For research and innovation policy, the implications of grand challenges may be quite different in smaller country contexts particularly those that are on the periphery of Europe.
The challenges may be easier to determine than the research and innovation responses: although problems or challenges can be contested,
there is a relatively strong consensus on the definition of several of them especially energy, climate change, demographics, etc.
Identifying the challenge is a first step. The second step is to ascertain what, if any, might be an appropriate response in terms of the research and innovation system.
The marginalisation of Ireland (as a small country) within multilateral frameworks was identified as a challenge by participants in the exercise.
This is not a conventional innovation problem yet was regarded still as a national challenge in its broadest sense.
How‘‘grand''and‘‘societal''should the challenges be? It is not easy to ascertain clear differences between‘‘grand challenges
''and‘‘grand societal challenges''at least in the way the terms have been used to date in the EU. In The irish case,
the challenges varied in scale and impact, where some appeared to be narrower and more specific for the national RTDI system.
This suggests that not all RTDI priorities are linked specifically to grand challenges. It is important not to impose excessive constraints on innovation policies that do not overtly fulfil societal needs in the conveyed by debates on grand challenges.
Responding to grand challenges may require some longer-term investment decisions and commitments. There is a persuasive view that that longer-term thinking
and commitments PAGE 38 jforesight jvol. 15 NO 1 2013 are necessary to develop and sustain a successful innovation system.
In the context of grand challenges, there is an important, ongoing role for FTA in critically evaluating continued support for the allocation of resources within the research and innovation system,
and the way in which they are organised. Notes 1. See www. se2009. eu/polopoly fs/1. 8460!
en. php 4. The grand challenges were assembled by the consulting team at the request of the client
's Grand Societal Challenges'',Report of the ETP Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006), Review of the European union Sustainable development Strategy Renewed Strategy, available at:
Georghiou, L.,Cassingena-Harper, J. and Scapolo, F. 2011),‘From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 229-31.
Ko nno la A t.,Scapolo, F.,Desruellec, P. and Mu, R. 2011),‘Foresight tackling societal challenges:
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