and to respond to these challenges, is by radically increasing innovation activities in the natural resources sector.
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
This technology linkage reflects that the challenges faced by China, i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal,
Dealing with disruptive changes and grand challenges in particular therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general,
while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way,
iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges.
After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue.
and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: FTA practices Fundamental change and transformations Grand challenges 1. Introduction Drawing upon a critical reflection on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
this paper discusses the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers
and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 Corresponding author at:
and grand societal challenges, in particular, it is important to understand the very nature of change.
Current and future economic, environmental and societal challenges, as well as their combination emerge from such transformations
while the other two are related to the so-called grand challenges: 1. Known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns 2. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches 3. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges 4. Joint responses to grand challenges Below we will elaborate on each of these issues. 2. Known unknowns,
unknown knows and unknown unknowns The three phases above denote three levels of ignorance that FTA deals with 1,
such as the ones involved in grand challenges 2, p. 753. The example of Fukushima nuclear disaster exemplifies the levels of ignorance respectively (i e. the likelihood of an earthquake;
The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants are decisive when dealing with grand challenges 3. Thus,
and for control of costs would be lost. 4. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturally lend themselves to a global outlook,
Grand challenges 381 C. Cagnin et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.
such challenges concern the whole or large parts of societies and require multidisciplinary and collective action.
In that sense dealing with grand challenges introduces new conceptual, methodological and operational challenges for FTA. Energy, climate change, natural resources, food, water,
and migration are among the most widely referred grand challenges. These are very large topics with fuzzy boundaries.
The challenge for FTA lies in the fact that the unstructured nature of grand challenges may not fit with the existing thematic structures of decision-making.
(i) identify challenges;(ii) align actors around the challenge;(iii) discuss expected and unexpected consequences of challenges;
and (iv) anticipate and address transformations in response to them. 5. Joint responses to grand challenges There is a need for transitions in many realms,
which require crosscutting analysis and intervention across policy domains 11,12. It is even more so when one tries to tackle the so-called grand challenges.
The very nature of grand challenges in most cases requires co-operation and co-ordination across (i) policy domains and (ii) governance (policy) levels.
We need further theoretical analyses and practical work to establish what FTA METHODS would be useful and feasible to facilitate co-ordination of tools/actions used in various policy domains,
as well as co-operation among policy-makers working at regional, national and supranational level. This overall question needs to be divided into several‘sub-questions,
and resources allocated for intervention to address grand challenges, FTA still needs to develop mechanisms for orchestrated innovation activities and policy action.
and interest in research and innovation to respond to grand challenges. Understanding the difficulties for FTA to dealing with the grand challenges of humanity helps
therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.
For instance, 14 give waste-based innovation as an example of such opportunity, which appears to be suitable for aligning scientific/technological
Several papers also tackle the so-called grand challenges. The papers discussed below have been selected initially by the scientific committee of the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis to be considered for publication with several other papers.
De Smedt et al. 5 investigate ways in which futures thinking assisted by scenarios can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems.
businesses and society by addressing the so-called grand challenges. They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage
since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.
in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
De Smedt et al. 5 claim that grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation in order to address grand societal challenges.
and disruptive transformations with a strong focus on grand challenges, according to Georghiou and Harper 3. We can further extend this broader understanding by stressing that FTA can be highly relevant beyond the domain of STI policies.
and discontinuity much emphasised by grand challenges, transformations and disruptive changes that claim for adaptation and alignment as coping strategies.
when policy-makers need to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
FTA clearly has a role in articulating recognised grand challenges and if approached correctly, instead of seeking to manage away uncertainty,
Manag. 24 (8)( 2012) 753 767.3 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis, Technol.
Keenan, Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci. Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
However, it has been applied by the Finnish innovation Fund to develop holistic understanding of a challenge with issues related to ageing, education,
Second, when FTA and especially foresight is addressing the intrinsically uncertain challenge of devising possible futures,
E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis: proceedings of the EU US scientific seminar:
The Challenges and Benefits of Integrating Diverse Paradigms, Jossey-Bass, San francisco, 1997.11 P. Goodwin, Why hindsight can damage foresight, Int. J. Appl.
FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations, 2011, Available at: http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/FTA2011 CALL FINAL. pdf. Accessed August 2012.19 H. Van Lente,
T. Könnölä, Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technol.
Papers in Memory of Everett C. Hughes, Aldine, Chicago, 1968.66 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis, Technol.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 2 H. X. G. Ming, W. F. Lu, C. F. Zhu, Technology challenges
for product lifecycle management, Technical Report, STR/04/058/SP, Singapore Institute of Manufacturing Technology, 2004.3 T. A. Vijay, Challenges in product strategy
and the transition toward a more sustainable energy generation system is a grand societal challenge. This study shows how EMA
Another important challenge inmany FTA projects is supporting amulti-actor process. Different perspectives, differentworldviews or different mental models of various stakeholders are usually the norm in FTA projects
It thus explicitly addresses one of the FTA challenges identified by Porter et al. 1 by assessing how EMA could contribute to adaptive foresight 10 under deep uncertainty.
the challenges associated with decision-making under deep uncertainty can largely be overcome. Instead of trying to predict,
Each of the cases is related to important societal challenges. The first case explores uncertainties related to the availability of minerals/metals that are crucial for the sustainable development of all societies.
Potential mineral/metal scarcity poses a serious challenge for civil protection in at least three ways 17,18: 1. Many crucial minerals
adaptability and ability to shape responses to challenges and transformations. A central issue in many FTA projects is how to cope with a multiplicity of worldviews and values,
These grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge.
and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation.
which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges.
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
if they are used as predictions. 1. 2. Grand challenges The aim of this paper is to initiate a discussion on how scenario analysis can help to better cope with the grand challenges
Today's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment and poverty go beyond economic and social policies 9. Grand challenges are interrelated usually
and operating at a global scale 10. Often it is not clear what the real causes are
and responding to the grand challenges 15. At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.
This initiative is an example of a strategic approach integrating research and innovation instruments and actors to tackle the innovation emergency related to the grand challenges the European union is facing 16, p1.
Futures thinking is an essential element of developing such a strategy. For example, Hamel and Prahalad 17 emphasize that strategy should draw up consistent visions of the future.
The traditional concepts and models of innovation are not always adequate to embrace the complexity for addressing the grand challenges 10,15.
Grand challenges require that policy-makers address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon as yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge.
Looking at the grand challenges innovations are not only contributing to the solutions. Innovations in the past have been also part of the current unsustainable trends.
Therefore innovation research needs increasingly be oriented towards the challenges presented by environmental complexity and socioeconomic turbulence 25.
In order to investigate how scenario analysis can help better cope with the grand challenges and inspire innovation, we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.
In Section 5, we further discuss our findings addressing how scenario practice can orientate innovation systems in the view of the grand challenges.
and interests in research and innovation to address the grand challenges. For instance, Hekkert et al. 40 highlight that stimulating knowledge flows (alone) is not sufficient to induce technological change and economic performance.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 experiments in the policy process, new concepts and sustainable solutions can be found to grand challenges.
It is a key challenge to benefit from this rich and complex audience. Also from this‘empowerment'perspective we suggest some areas of improvement.
and scenarios can help better cope with the grand challenges and how future scenarios can inspire innovation. 3 http://www. naturalstep. org/.
particularly as far as grand challenges are concerned. Hence, we believe that developing and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available in Dutch at http://www. duwobo. be/index. cfm. 5. 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2008), New challenges for agricultural research:
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.
http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf). 10 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Proceedings of the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), FTA for Structural and Systemic transformations in Response to Grand Societal Challenges:
Pract. 3 (2001) 311 337.15 OECD, Fostering innovation to address social challenges, in: Workshop Proceedings, OECD, Paris, 2011.16 EC, Innovation Union Competitiveness Report 2011.
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press. 64 A. Geyer, F. Scapolo, European manufacturing in transition the challenge of sustainable development:
OECD (Ed.),Fostering Innovation to Address Social challenges, Workshop Proceedings, OECD, Paris, 2011, pp. 59 64.80 M. Godet, The art of scenarios and strategic planning:
His professional challenge is connecting science and policy. On a broad range of regional and EU projects, involving foresight and integrated assessment,
the question also includes how to use these technologies to tackle societal challenges and to contribute to environmental sustainability 3, cf. 4. In both rationales,
such as the late consideration of societal challenges, there are also differences in governance structures. In Germany, disparate sources of knowledge were pooled not
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation to address grand societal challenges.
The updated nanotechnology vision in the US 3 is envisioning the involvement of a broader range of experts and stakeholders and addresses societal challenges through a sophisticated concept of future nanotechnology governance.
E. Commission (Ed.),From Challenges to Opportunities: Towards a Common Strategic Framework for EU. COM (2011) 48, Green Paper, European commission, Brussels, 2011.5 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, IWGN, E. A t.,The Interagency
Increasingly, innovation policy strategies such as the European commission's Innovation Union flagship initiative 3 are addressing socioeconomic challenges such as sustainability, health, and security.
in order to address societal challenges. This requires consideration of social and ecological aspects throughout the entire innovation process.
The key challenge encountered was the widening of filters to discern signals beyond the obvious.
Mapping and interpretation of weak signals is still in its infancy and thus an important challenge for further studies 31.
, B. Sanders, In and out of sync, The Challenge of Growing Social innovations, NESTA Research report, 2007.14 H. W. Chesbrough, Open innovation:
Rising to the challenges Reflections on Future-oriented technology analysis Luke Georghiou a,, Jennifer Cassingena Harper b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK b Malta Council for Science and Technology, Kalkara, Malta
and a focus on grand societal challenges. By their nature boundary-spanning, these make it less easy to locate FTA institutionally to achieve the necessary crosscutting perspective.
Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm
regularly used keywords emphasised discontinuities with a discourse around grand challenges, transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
and applied research where the notion of grand or societal challenges has risen to prominence, most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
plank of the new core programme Horizon 2020 11. The tendency is also visible in the United states where the White house Office of Science
We know that Grand challenges are boundary spanning, address‘wicked problems'and do not fit current institutional
For example, universities find grand challenges difficult to use as an organisational principle both because of their interdisciplinary nature
or disciplinary structure Grand challenges force them to work collaboratively. A further dimension of complexity is that few challenges are bounded nationally,
so that serious attempts to address them need to be transnational or in some cases global.
or regionally and so is handicapped potentially in dealing with the transnational nature of the challenges. To the extent that FTA is situated in specific domains it is again at risk of achieving only a partial view.
or sector 13 but equally the need could be for tailoring to the circumstances of the grand challenge.
is more likely to see Grand challenges as an opportunity for innovation and new markets. An important question to ask is
what the user community might want from FTA in respect of guiding research and innovation strategies in the light of grand challenges?
Three functions could be distinguished identification of a challenge, articulation of a challenge that has already been identified at a general level
and helping to achieve what is called variously orchestration or alignment of actors around the challenge.
Of the three the most difficult is likely to be identification of new challenges. In the taxonomy of transformations emerging at the conference 14, the distinction made by a European Science Foundation working group between recognised
and disruptive challenges highlights the problem. The lists given above for EU and US research policies consist entirely of well-recognised challenges in
which FTA work would be focused on articulation and orchestration. However policymakers would really like to know about new and unforeseen challenges that could disrupt their activities.
The instability following the financial crisis which was foreseen by a few but where little attention was paid to warnings has intensified this desire.
Similar reactions have followed epidemics (the institution of government horizon scanning in the UK was at least in part a reaction to the BSE epidemic.
There is some distance between wanting to identify new challenges and doing so effectively beyond the hope that the scattergun might hit the target.
and you choose your challenges. There is also the possibility that some transformations may be catastrophic in the sense of occurring suddenly
In slightly more familiar territory, FTA ACTIVITIES clearly have a role in articulating recognised grand challenges. If approached correctly FTAS,
Challenges are not soluble in a single way or at a single point in time and hence variety of approach remains beneficial Alignment is a more realistic objective.
A particular challenge is to find the methodological core of FTA practice, not because of a lack of methods the field is rich with them
The interdisciplinary nature of challenge-oriented results is difficult for traditional governance structures to absorb.
Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
Manage. 20 (3)( 2008) 267 269.6 L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, F. Scapolo, From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis, Futures 43 (3
(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.
The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
Or was FTA revealing the incompatibility of the theory and practice of efforts that deal with closed versus open challenges?
With this challenge in mind we believe that the papers in this Special issue, offer some clues both negative and positive regarding the ways to build shared discourses that cover theory and practice.
Almost all the articles in the Special issue take on this challenge the rationale for matching particular tools to particular tasks.
We are aware that research on the theoretical foundations of FTA poses challenges which are not only of academic nature.
This fact challenges Keenan and Popper's factors for explaining variations and similarities in regional foresight data.
the government launched a process that was to meet the Grand challenge of increasing globalisation. The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision
and a strategy for transforming Denmark into a leading growth, knowledge and entrepreneurial society. The work was set up in the wake of the government programme‘‘New Goals,
and the following three meetings discussed the Grand challenges that Denmark faces. These meetings were initiated partly by some background papers that were prepared by the secretariat of the Globalisation Council.
which led to 125 important trends and grand challenges. The report comprised approximately one page of text for each international trend
The proposals should be oriented to challenges or opportunities, be broad enough to ensure effective competition among Danish research environments in the call for proposals for strategic research funding,
and should play a central role in meeting the thematic challenge or should be useful in other ways.
Mapping OECD horizontal scanning Public hearing among all interested citizens Input from ministries 125 trends and challenges 432 suggestions 90 suggestions In principle, everybody interested in strategic research 2:
2 T. Ko nno la, F. Scapolo, P. Desruelle, R. Mu, Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Forth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations SEVILLE, 12 13,may 2011. 7 J. Irvine, B
which in turn implies that foresight exercises can lead to the reconfiguration of a policy system and increase its ability to meet major challenges.
another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.
In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models
According to policy-makers, the challenge is to present and communicate a foresight study in such a way that it is recognisable for politicians
An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes. Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers
(CGEE), Brasi'lia, Brazil c Impetu Solutions, Madrid, Spain 1. Introduction Mounting effective responses to many major societal challenges usually requires coordinated efforts
how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.
and managerial challenges in order to take into account scale, culture, timing and institutional constraints. Section 6 summarises the main conclusions. 2. Global foresight design and management The design and management of global foresight projects,
Here one of the major challenges is embed to the global foresight exercise in different local regional and national systems as well as within international sectoral networks and institutions.
and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise when organising global foresight exercises. Table 1 summarises the main lessons learned using four principles that need to be taken into consideration when designing and managing an international foresight exercise.
in order to prepare for the identified challenges. This approach was key to designing a questionnaire able to elicit the innovative ideas that participants thought critical for IMS both globally and locally.
It highlighted some of the challenges in organising global foresight exercises. For instance, the scalable design was crucial for adapting to geographical dispersion and the large number of participants.
time for the EU to meet global challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010.2 L. Y. Tang, Q. Shen, Factors affecting effectiveness and efficiency of analysing stakeholders
) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140
and methodological challenges to be addressed. The second paper by Brummer et al. addresses the challenges of organising future-oriented consultation processes that are promoted at the international level and, in the precise case by the European commission,
as contribution towards the establishment of common research policy (i e. the so-called European research area (ERA). 3 This contribution refers to a very specific project
It also describes the major methodological challenges involved in the process. In the paper‘Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications,'Blind illustrates three methodologies for performing Regulatory foresight.
Essentially, these are challenges for strategic technology intelligence and forward-looking tools. This is especially the case for implementations around Emerging s&t fields.
These are increasingly facing new challenges brought on by a number of major disruptive drivers including, amongst others:
and challenges are prodding European universities to undergo a series of reforms to position themselves as relevant players in the knowledge society.
The challenge remains to have FTA ACTIVITIES more closely integrated within the policy-making process. However, influencing policy-making
what Cagnin et al. 6 refer to as‘Grand Societal Challenges'.'In particular, there is a growing recognition of the user as‘innovator'and key stakeholder, especially in the early phases of scientific and technological research,
Therefore, lowering this uncertainty is an important challenge, which firms try to tackle by means of e g.,
These include the recognition of challenges facing innovation including the increasing complexity and uncertainty which result in failing innovations;
and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:
Challenges of user involvement in future technology analysis, Science and Public policy 37 (2010) 51 61.20 C. Lettl, User involvement competence for radical innovation, Journal of Engineering and Technology management
Brazil 1. Introduction One of the main challenges faced by organisations resides in executing planned strategies 1 3. The misalignment between strategy-design
and practitioners to tackle this challenge. Several tools have been developed that foster alignment between strategy and actions
we argue that embedding FTA in the system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
challenges and policies are formulated, and how these resonate across its value chain. The first phase (organisational strategy) consists in supporting the definition of the strategic positioning of a firm within its environment.
and manage emerging challenges. It does so by providing spaces where actors can come together to shape equally likely paths into the future through a collective articulation of visions
and solutions to challenges (thus supporting phase 1) as well as learn with one another (thus supporting phases 3 and 4). Enabling spaces like this through foresight embedded within the proposed system to formalise this collective process of mutual learning and experimentation would enable increased communication across the value chain.
embedding FTA within the proposed system would enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
Finally, embedding FTA within the system proposed shall enable firms to steer solutions to possible challenges through joint-up decision making and implementation processes.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.40 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, Publications Office of the European union, Luxembourg, 2010, http://dx. doi. org/10.2791/4223eur 24364 EN, ISSN 1018
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