Grand challenge

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Synopsis: Challenge: Grand challenge:

and trends and how these address or are related to the grand challenges faced by societies today and in the future.

Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims

and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.

sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference,

only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.

but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges. Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives

Keywords Future-oriented technology analysis, FTA, Grand challenges, Forward looking activities T oday's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment go beyond current national policies.

Grand challenges are interrelated usually and have an effect on different scales ranging from global to local.

and systemic transformations in a diversity of application fields responding to grand challenges. The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.

adapt and respond pro-actively to grand challenges. In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in

sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges. A first example looks at the application of fta methods to transport planning.

and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.

but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges. About the authors Vicente Carabias, who has a MSC in Environmental sciences from ETHZ in 1996,

http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating

Karel Haegeman, K. Matthias Weber & Totti Könnölä (2012) Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating

8 september 2012,729 734 EDITORIAL Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural

and tackle Grand challenges. This problem-oriented approach may have been one of the reasons for a further increase in the number of submitted abstracts and participants.

what the often proclaimed Grand challenges really are and what we exactly have to prepare for. This topic was taken up by Harold Linstone in his keynote speech,

'building on the argument that existing governnanc structures and organisations need to better adapt to the scale and nature of current Grand challenges.

and what their potential and limitations Are downloaded in by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 731 addressing Grand challenges.

in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.

whether elderly people will really constitute a Grand challenge, or whether they will become the dominant productive force in the next decades.

He invites us to think differently about Grand challenges, by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.

and opinions on the role of FTA in preparing for Grand challenges. Some common lines of thought seem to emerge around the recognition of fundamental uncertainty

Stronger emphasis on creativity and exploration of truly Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 Preparing for grand challenges 733 alternative future developments are called for to be prepared better to address both the existing Grand challenges

The role of FTA in responding to Grand challenges: A new approach for STI policy? Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 135 9. Denning, S. 2005.

For example, ageing may become a‘grand challenge 'when we assume an industrial age model of factory-based production, industrial era life patterns and health services,

elderly people could well become the dominant productive force in the next few decades, instead of a grand challenge.

but when there is talk of‘managing the Earth'for this or that‘grand challenge'(all of which are interconnected

is the notion of‘grand challenges'.'In a sense, these are a throwback to the 1970's debates about the world problematique

The interdependence of the silos of‘grand challenges'adds dimensions that were appreciated in the 1970's

Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52.

when responding to the so-called‘grand challenges',such as climate change or global resource scarcity. For companies and organisations alike, tackling these kinds of complex challenges,

Foresight and‘‘grand challenges''within research and innovation policies Martin Rhisiart Abstract Purpose The paper seeks to discuss how foresight is used to understand the implications of global changes for research and innovation policies.

It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.

innovation and grand challenges. Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.

Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not.

A bottom-up, participatory process produced a broader set of grand challenges. Research limitations/implications The concept of grand challenges is still relatively new.

Practical implications Not all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges. National policies need to take account of grand challenges

whilst continuing to support other research and innovation needs. Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.

Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research

and innovation system to assess the implications of new technologies and wider socioeconomic changes (Martin and Johnston, 1999;

Rappert, 1999; Saritas et al. 2007; Georghiou and Cassingena-Harper, 2011. Such approaches are built often into prioritisation exercises,

where national governments formulate strategic responses that take into account the existing and anticipated developments in the sciences

the concept of‘‘grand challenges''or‘‘grand societal challenges''.''Foresight has long been used for social purposes.

However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.

) The provenance and scope of the grand challenges are discussed in the article, below; they are understood broadly in terms of DOI 10.1108/14636681311310123 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013, pp. 29-39, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,

There has not been a clear distinction between the terms‘‘grand challenges''and‘‘grand societal challenges,

) This article will use‘‘grand challenges''as the main term for these developments. This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.

was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.

Several issues are addressed that are relevant for those interested in foresight, research and innovation, and grand challenges.

which grand challenges are constructed or interpreted, how research and innovation systems respond to grand challenges, and re-conceiving

or reframing questions for the research and innovation system. The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.

and briefly traces the provenance and meaning of grand challenges. Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,

grand challenges and research responses are presented then in section 4. Finally, some conclusions and implications for research and practice are offered particularly on how foresight addresses the‘‘challenge of grand challenges''in research and innovation systems.

Grand challenges refresh and recast some important questions for Foresight and research and innovation policies. 2. Grand challenges the emergence of a new frame of reference In the public funding of research, there are often tensions between two basic principles:

1. the intrinsic benefits of pure or‘‘blue skies''research; and 2. a more explicitly problem or impact-oriented approach.

In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,

In this framing, the grand challenges are a manifestation of the extent to which sustainable development has become increasingly embedded politically, in policy terms, and socially.

In a more tangible sense, the European union Sustainable development Strategy (2006) although not couched at the time in precisely the same language of PAGE 30 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013‘‘grand challenges''set out a similar framework for addressing the critical

Within this general backdrop, there emerged a focus on‘‘grand challenges''and within the European union. Specifically, the issue identified was the effective marshalling of research, technological and innovation funds to support broad goals for Europe.

European research must focus on the Grand challenges of our time moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches. This calls for a new deal among European institutions and Member States, in which European and national instruments are aligned well and co-operation builds transparency and trust.

Identifying and responding to Grand challenges should involve stakeholders from both public and private sectors in transparent processes taking into account the global dimension.

which emphasised that it needed to address a series of Grand challenges (European commission DG Research, 2008,

p. 5). The same focus on grand challenges and the increasing shift towards addressing societal needs was identified in the first report of the European research area Board (European commission DG Research, 2009).

A further milestone in the explicit recognition of directing research and innovation resources towards grand challenges came with the publication of a report on the European Technology platforms by DG Research (European commission DG Research, 2010.

and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:

the identification of grand challenges was introduced whilst the exercise was in progress. 3. 3. 1 Phase 1:

Identifying grand challenges. During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers

and the national context could be cast as (grand challenges for Ireland, which could inform the work of the Research prioritisation Steering Group.

The final output incorporated the grand challenges identified for Ireland, with emerging implications for the research system. 4. Project results:

from drivers and trends to grand challenges 4. 1 Catalogue of global drivers and trends from the national context The third level catalogue is a substantial volume that analyses global trends and drivers from a‘‘national

''PAGE 34 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 4. 3 An emerging set of grand challenges for Ireland research needs and implications A set of 12 challenges was provided for consideration

and engineering and science skills PAGE 36 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The project undertaken provided a national view on grand challenges that had been discussed in other settings.

The results provide an interesting interpretation of grand challenges for the national context. Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.

The concern over sustainable, secure energy (first example featured in Table V) may be regarded as a grand challenge in this vein.

Some of the other grand challenges identified are narrower and appear more specialised. The second example given in Table V developing enabling mechanisms and absorptive capacities for RTDI does not carry the same narrative of a fundamental problem facing Europe and the wider world.

it emerged as a significant(‘‘grand'challenge for the country's research and innovation system. The participants that were involved in the consultative events recognised the significance of certain drivers (around

for example, energy and other resources) and this was reflected in the construction of grand challenges. In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.

In some cases, the diagnosis of the grand challenge in The irish context was more straightforward than the construction of a set of possible responses from the research and innovation system.

One grand challenge that emerged from the confluence of economic and geopolitical drivers and trends was the potential marginalisation of Ireland within multilateral frameworks:

it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.

Even where there is a consensus on grand challenges, connecting them with niche areas of opportunity and development can be a very difficult task.

and in constructing grand challenges. This was manifested in different ways (including the relationship of Ireland with Europe and the wider world through multilateral frameworks.

First, some of the grand challenges discussed at the European level had much less resonance for Ireland according to the views expressed by participants (e g. security.

it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,

In the context of several European initiatives to promote approaches to dealing with grand challenges, this article introduces a country level case study using a foresight approach to look at the implications of global drivers and trends for Ireland,

During the course of the exercise, the appointed research and consulting team was asked to translate the knowledge generated (global drivers and trends and their national implications) into a set of grand challenges for Ireland.

there are some important implications for foresight practice in RTDI and grand challenges. Assessing how the research and innovation systems can address grand challenges can be done through bottom-up approaches.

Although it was designed not originally in this way the foresight exercise undertaken in Ireland became a participatory,

bottom-up process that assembled grand challenges by combining knowledge on drives and trends with national context and insights.

but one example of how work on grand challenges could be refined and adapted at a national level.

An alternative approach would be to begin by explicitly addressing the grand challenges as they have been defined broadly in several European initiatives

and meaning of grand challenges for individual countries. 5. 1 Scale the European versus the small country context European-scale discourse can sometimes unwittingly neglect the specificities of national contexts especially the smaller country contexts.

For research and innovation policy, the implications of grand challenges may be quite different in smaller country contexts particularly those that are on the periphery of Europe.

It is not easy to ascertain clear differences between‘‘grand challenges ''and‘‘grand societal challenges''at least in the way the terms have been used to date in the EU. In The irish case,

This suggests that not all RTDI priorities are linked specifically to grand challenges. It is important not to impose excessive constraints on innovation policies that do not overtly fulfil societal needs in the conveyed by debates on grand challenges.

Responding to grand challenges may require some longer-term investment decisions and commitments. There is a persuasive view that that longer-term thinking

and commitments PAGE 38 jforesight jvol. 15 NO 1 2013 are necessary to develop and sustain a successful innovation system.

In the context of grand challenges, there is an important, ongoing role for FTA in critically evaluating continued support for the allocation of resources within the research and innovation system,

en. php 4. The grand challenges were assembled by the consulting team at the request of the client

Dealing with disruptive changes and grand challenges in particular therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general,

while further two are specific to the so-called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way,

iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges.

After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue.

and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: FTA practices Fundamental change and transformations Grand challenges 1. Introduction Drawing upon a critical reflection on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,

this paper discusses the potential of future-oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision-makers

and in tackling the so-called grand challenges. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 Corresponding author at:

while the other two are related to the so-called grand challenges: 1. Known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns 2. Combining quantitative and qualitative approaches 3. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges 4. Joint responses to grand challenges Below we will elaborate on each of these issues. 2. Known unknowns,

unknown knows and unknown unknowns The three phases above denote three levels of ignorance that FTA deals with 1,

such as the ones involved in grand challenges 2, p. 753. The example of Fukushima nuclear disaster exemplifies the levels of ignorance respectively (i e. the likelihood of an earthquake;

The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants are decisive when dealing with grand challenges 3. Thus,

and for control of costs would be lost. 4. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturally lend themselves to a global outlook,

Grand challenges 381 C. Cagnin et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 are by nature complex and largely impervious to top-down rational planning approaches.

In that sense dealing with grand challenges introduces new conceptual, methodological and operational challenges for FTA. Energy, climate change, natural resources, food, water,

and migration are among the most widely referred grand challenges. These are very large topics with fuzzy boundaries.

The challenge for FTA lies in the fact that the unstructured nature of grand challenges may not fit with the existing thematic structures of decision-making.

and address transformations in response to them. 5. Joint responses to grand challenges There is a need for transitions in many realms,

so when one tries to tackle the so-called grand challenges. The very nature of grand challenges in most cases requires co-operation and co-ordination across (i) policy domains and (ii) governance (policy) levels.

We need further theoretical analyses and practical work to establish what FTA METHODS would be useful and feasible to facilitate co-ordination of tools/actions used in various policy domains,

and resources allocated for intervention to address grand challenges, FTA still needs to develop mechanisms for orchestrated innovation activities and policy action.

and interest in research and innovation to respond to grand challenges. Understanding the difficulties for FTA to dealing with the grand challenges of humanity helps

therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.

For instance, 14 give waste-based innovation as an example of such opportunity, which appears to be suitable for aligning scientific/technological

Several papers also tackle the so-called grand challenges. The papers discussed below have been selected initially by the scientific committee of the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis to be considered for publication with several other papers.

De Smedt et al. 5 investigate ways in which futures thinking assisted by scenarios can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems.

businesses and society by addressing the so-called grand challenges. They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage

in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.

De Smedt et al. 5 claim that grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues

and disruptive transformations with a strong focus on grand challenges, according to Georghiou and Harper 3. We can further extend this broader understanding by stressing that FTA can be highly relevant beyond the domain of STI policies.

and discontinuity much emphasised by grand challenges, transformations and disruptive changes that claim for adaptation and alignment as coping strategies.

FTA clearly has a role in articulating recognised grand challenges and if approached correctly, instead of seeking to manage away uncertainty,

. Keenan, Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci. Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:

T. Könnölä, Preparing for grand challenges: the role of future-oriented technology analysis in anticipating and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technol.

These grand challenges require policy-makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge.

and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation.

which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges.

Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change

if they are used as predictions. 1. 2. Grand challenges The aim of this paper is to initiate a discussion on how scenario analysis can help to better cope with the grand challenges

Today's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment and poverty go beyond economic and social policies 9. Grand challenges are interrelated usually

and operating at a global scale 10. Often it is not clear what the real causes are

and responding to the grand challenges 15. At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.

and innovation instruments and actors to tackle the innovation emergency related to the grand challenges the European union is facing 16, p1.

The traditional concepts and models of innovation are not always adequate to embrace the complexity for addressing the grand challenges 10,15.

Grand challenges require that policy-makers address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon as yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge.

Looking at the grand challenges innovations are not only contributing to the solutions. Innovations in the past have been also part of the current unsustainable trends.

In order to investigate how scenario analysis can help better cope with the grand challenges and inspire innovation, we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.

In Section 5, we further discuss our findings addressing how scenario practice can orientate innovation systems in the view of the grand challenges.

and interests in research and innovation to address the grand challenges. For instance, Hekkert et al. 40 highlight that stimulating knowledge flows (alone) is not sufficient to induce technological change and economic performance.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 experiments in the policy process, new concepts and sustainable solutions can be found to grand challenges.

and scenarios can help better cope with the grand challenges and how future scenarios can inspire innovation. 3 http://www. naturalstep. org/.

particularly as far as grand challenges are concerned. Hence, we believe that developing and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),

http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf). 10 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:

Future-oriented Innovation Foresight Grand challenges Disruptive Transformations When circumstances become more turbulent it is often the case that an era is regarded retrospectively as one of calm

regularly used keywords emphasised discontinuities with a discourse around grand challenges, transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:

We know that Grand challenges are boundary spanning, address‘wicked problems'and do not fit current institutional

For example, universities find grand challenges difficult to use as an organisational principle both because of their interdisciplinary nature

or disciplinary structure Grand challenges force them to work collaboratively. A further dimension of complexity is that few challenges are bounded nationally,

is more likely to see Grand challenges as an opportunity for innovation and new markets. An important question to ask is

what the user community might want from FTA in respect of guiding research and innovation strategies in the light of grand challenges?

In slightly more familiar territory, FTA ACTIVITIES clearly have a role in articulating recognised grand challenges. If approached correctly FTAS,

(2011) 808 final, 2011 12 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci.

the government launched a process that was to meet the Grand challenge of increasing globalisation. The aim was to meet this challenge by developing a vision

and the following three meetings discussed the Grand challenges that Denmark faces. These meetings were initiated partly by some background papers that were prepared by the secretariat of the Globalisation Council.

which led to 125 important trends and grand challenges. The report comprised approximately one page of text for each international trend

how FTA projects like IMS hold out the promise of achieving better international coordination and joint preparedness for future grand challenges.

) 219 235.17 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Science and Public policy 39 (2012) 140

and Innovation policy (IJFIP) 1 (2004) 4 32.6 C. Cagnin, E. Amanatidou, M. Keenan, Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, in:

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